[Closed] Market trends/next big craze for 2011/12

more and more components being made from carbon... so things like carbon forks become mainstream (on road bikes), carbon posts, etc...

Belt driven 36er unicycles with 6" travel and dropper posts.

I think we've probably reached a plateau in terms of usefullness of new designs and products. Things like suspension, disc brakes and carbon have made massive leaps forward but I can't see anything major in the next year or two that will transform our riding.

That said there is that much money in the industry that the manufacturers will keep telling us they have the next big thing but in reality most of us can do just as well without it.

Toe clips & straps.

Rachel

hub gears

Belt drives and hub gears

A completely re-designed gearing system that allows electronic shifting:

* Micro-battery lightweight powered shifters that generate a digital signal
* The digital signal is transmitted through the metal of the bike frame
* Using pedaling forces to perform the actual shift so no need for a battery to power the shift; some sort of clutching needed

Get designing!

what about in terms of trends? rather than just products. things like 29ers and the whole fixed gear thing. anything else brewing up?

I would see a lot more people going 1x10, especially when Hope and DT release their 36/9 tooth cassette formats.

More companies releasing shorter travel bikes with more aggressive geometry, ie like the Whyte 146 stump jumper evo. Really though, nothing dramatic is gonna happen in 12 months.

Five years though...oh just imagine. Everyone on electric bikes, oh yes. Electric dh bikes and electric xc bikes and electric trikes.

Products: electronic shifting will go mainstream in the next 5 years.
Industry itself: sportives/mass participation events. I think it might be surprising, might find fewer events overall but better organised as the smaller events get sidelined/can't compete with the Wiggle and Evans style rides.

+1 hub gears. I'd love to see the 11 speed Alfine come down in price and SRAM develop something similar to increase competition. Not sure it'll happen though.

hover bikes? 🙂

serisouly though, do you think there's a market for electric off-road bikes? AM bikes? if manufacturers can make the motors lighter and discrete? or do you think these are stictly for fat people / hip-operation types?

reliable dropper posts that tarts think looks pretty
Carbonbeinf used much more for off road bikes
someone to do a good quiet non cup and cone rear free wheel that does not click it annoys the **** out of me - HOPE I MEAN YOU
suspension BMX - that the think outside the box one 😉
Twin cleated mtb shoes so you can pedal uphill correctly but move the foot for the downhiull and still be clipped in but have a more flatt type position

3 speed hubs - again

29'rs will become more main stream than niche, a wider range of 29rs available with the 'big' brands supporting them.

The 29r Anthem already is picking up some serious interest / lust.

i totally agree 29ers are here to stay. i'm also interested to see how electronic shifting developes.

cheers for your imput guys. interesting ideas.

11 speed anyone...?

Whatever happened to that canyon 3 speed hub that promised to do away with front mechs?

Edit: that electronically controlled suspension thing that canondale had looked pretty nifty too. Think it was called simon, or something like that.

New tapered headset 2 inch bottom/1.5 inch top

Another new BB standard

New handlebar size to replace 31.8 which has become too common (and who doesn't want stiffer handlebars?)

A new dropout width for the front. 17.5mm with 140mm spacing should do it.

1x11 gearing

Given that one of the BIG brands is investing in a 29er demo fleet to educate their own dealers and staff, 2012 is a watershed year....

I think the new standard of belt drive will see popularity increase - much more user-friendly and practical. Hub gears to go with them too. All these improvements will see the improvement of the £300 bike and that, coupled with rising fuel prices, will see more non-cyclists riding bikes.

according to the threads on here - cross bikes with disks, pref hydro ones, and wide range hub gears

electric off-road bike

I seriously hope not.

Belt drive with hub gears. It is the future.*

*may or may not be true.

Unicycle tandems

Belt drives and light reliable hub gears.

Also I can see the whole 29'er thing taking off properly too.

But as said above the general increase in people using bikes to commute to work and for general leisure activities like what happened around 100 years ago

ericemel - Member

Unicycle tandems

Old hat
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[url= http://www.disraeligears.co.uk/Site/LandRider_Auto_Shift_derailleur.html ]Autoshifting derailluers[/url]?

be nice to have an automatically variable gear hub, like the NuVinci, but lighter.

GPS controlled gears. Knows where you are and chooses the right gear automatically.

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I think the next trend will be fat bikes like the Surly Pugsley. Over the next year more mainsteam bike manufacturers will add a fat bike to their range.

Gary
www.pugsley-on-patrol.org.uk
www.youtube.com/garybuckham

Belt drive.
Light efficient hub gears at a sensible price with a wide spread of gears, but not necessarily a large number of gears.

Discs on road bikes by 2014, i reckon. If the UCI will allow it, but i think C-X sets a precedent.

29ers - they're big in the US and consequently the big companies (such as Giant as suggested by TooTall) will be sure to make sure that's what we want to buy and market it it as such (eg the mainstream mags will be saying that you have to have one if you want to be a better rider or even just a ride to the shops...).

Retro you cynic!

Junkyard to be fair it's not just hope, you hate DTs clicks too 🙂

Gary I reckon fat bikes are likely to remain niche, I reckon average rider would take the expense/complexity of suspension over the weight of fat wheels/tyres

Hub gears and belt drive sound interesting but have to improve a lot (cost, weight, reliability) whereas electronic shifting shouldn't be a big deal to incorporate.

Uppy downy seatposts that aren't heavy expensive and shonky would be nice.

Drivetrain options are getting more specific with more options than ever. Electric stuff, shimano will surly do a di xtr version, road/cx discs and 29ers top of the list. I was talking with the manager at noahs yesterday who is well cautious of 29ers, saying that they have had a shocker of a winter and need to find the sales anywhere. ignoring the wagon wheels is missing out....the market is starting to push seriously with 29er development in design and parts, sure its US led, with something like 90% of the hardtails sold last year over there were 29ers (or so i read).

Uppy downy seatposts that aren't heavy expensive and shonky would be nice.

they would. costing less than a months rent would be good 😆

with something like 90% of the hardtails sold last year over there were 29ers (or so i read).

WOOOAA really? that says a lot if that's an accurate stat..

Your monthly rent is £240? Where do you live, Calcutta?

yes it actually is... i live in sheffield 🙂 (that's only my share of the rent though)

Well if that's your half then that's reasonable.

such as Giant as suggested by TooTall

Nope - another big company - more special than Giant!

The non-cyclist has to be the growth area of the market - the entry level bike, the step up to something-I-can-do-a-sportive-on bike. There are far more bikes sold that the majority of the readers of this forum would ride - heavy, non-hydraulic etc. Look at the external factors - rising fuel prices have to be a factor.

Ugly electric assisted commuter bikes will be the big seller.

Can anybody make them remotely nice? They all look like nasty hybrids, which is what they are, I guess.

plaid shirts.

people looking through the windows of poorly stocked shops (whats left of them anyways) at stuff they just cant afford anymore!
well you did ask, Lmao

Road bikes to make a big comeback. Top end mtb sales to hit the floor.

29ers are just hybrids, have been around for years, they are just moving high end.

Fashion bikes - track bike look-a-likes, clean looking from courier style to commuters dressed up as urban CXs. With hub gears, wide rims. Or MAMIL machines.

seriously I reckon the modern european city bike / commuter with or withut electric will become a bigger and bigger part of the market.

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10 speed gripshift.

Super tiny 250cc two stroke motox race engine that will fit in the very small front triangle of my DH rig 😀

IMO - in the next 1-5 years

Electric bikes are gonna be BIG .. as driving gets pricier.

650B designs will emerge as longer travel FS designs and phase out 26"

1x11 will arrive

Far eastern sellers (i.e the guys who make the stuff!) will gain more respect as they become more orgainsed .. and people will increasingly see cheaper-products on ebay that looks just like the one that costs 3 times more with a "known-logo" in their LBS

I reckon that come 2013 the ratio of "STW-time:riding-time" will sway in the correct direction for most on here.....

DrP

I think that a niche that hasn't been explored very well yet is functional and fashionable bikes that appeal to the normal rider (so no one on here then) and hit the £200-£400 price mark - where most normal people feel they have spent enough on a bike to get a good one.

Some hybrids are already there - but most people want a mtb with suspension at that price - must be feasible to make a decent hardtail with effective brakes that doesn't weigh a tonne at that price point. Some older suspension designs ought to be suitable for comfort riding rather than off road...

I'm going with electric assist city bikes.

I can also feel the increasing emergence of very high-end custom steel road framsets, traditional brazed / lugged frames, made to measure, but with little twists / tweaks. Never going to be mainstream of course, but it'll become increasingly realistic for more people.

27.5er's, best of both worlds, you know it makes sense.

Road bikes to make a big comeback. Top end mtb sales to hit the floor.

Won't happen, it has already happened. From talking to people road bikes are what are selling not mtbs.

I reckon that come 2013 the ratio of "STW-time:riding-time" will sway in the correct direction for most on here.....

DrP

😆 What's this crazy theory based on?

Active suspension ,ala f1 cars of a few years ago.

The fork (or rear shock) senses the size and speed that the bump is being hit at and adjusts damping accordingly ,allows super plushness over small bumps and big hits alike, also allows adjustable ride height and therefore dynamic headangles ,steep when going up,slack going down, automatically varies itself according to steepness of terrain and speed

thanks for all your replies everybody! there's deffinately some areas that a lot of you are agreeing on.

-electric bikes
-hub gears / belt drive
-1x11
-electric shifting
-low end commuter/comfort bikes
-29er revolution

should be plenty to discuss in my interview. wish me luck 😉

good luck, remember you owe us all a percentage of your wage if you get the job x

Active suspension ,ala f1 cars of a few years ago.

The fork (or rear shock) senses the size and speed that the bump is being hit at and adjusts damping accordingly ,allows super plushness over small bumps and big hits alike, also allows adjustable ride height and therefore dynamic headangles ,steep when going up,slack going down, automatically varies itself according to steepness of terrain and speed

I don't fancy carrying around a hydraulic pump with me....

just to let you know I got the job!!

I'm just going to go ahead and say it was a team effort, so thanks 😉

Well done mate

Now hurry up and get my new electric, 1x11, gear hubed, electric shifting, low end, 29er into production.

😀

so what was the job? or did I miss that?

oh, and congrats of course

I don't fancy carrying around a hydraulic pump with me....

Just have electronicaly adjutable dampers? Cannondale had the ELO fork, noleen made a similar shock for proflex. Bionicon use the shock/fork themselves as a pump. All the tech's there, just need someone to build it.

Is there a need for it? Not so sure, people might buy it, but not sure of a need for it personaly.

an industry theme that's here already, German direct bike sales will grow in a big way.

so what was the job? or did I miss that?

oh, and congrats of course

it's as a buyer for one of the big big companys. chuffed to bits. thank you!