Interesting to note that the welsh exercise rules have been slightly altered without any fanfare or announcement. They haven't really been relaxed but wording tweaked to be slightly less prescriptive and focus on on sticking to low risk activity.
A lockdown may be a necessary evil, but it’s still an evil and it has consequences. Increases in domestic violence, suicides etc. I’m afraid that it’s never been a case of “stay at home and save lives” as lives are lost in both cases. We could spend all day discussing exactly when the costs of a lockdown start to outweigh the benefits. The truth is that we don’t know as there are still too many unknowns with Covid-19. But it’s a legitimate debate and those arguing to maintain stricter controls don’t have any moral superiority in this debate. It’s not lives vs freedom or lives vs the economy it’s lives vs lives.
Yes, can't help thinking this lockdown will have a worse long term outcome than the virus due to economic downturn causing poverty and the effect on mental health of the young.
I think what we have to take from the MRT response is if they are wiped out with Covid, who'll be there to help those in need on the fells?
I'm currently furloughed, great weather and dry mountain trails only 20 minutes by car. Yet even though I ride within my limits and have never called on the mountain rescue for help it doesn't mean I never will.
roverpig - stay in lockdown until its safe to come out - that means until the R number is well below 1 and has been for a couple of weeks AND a proper track and trace system is in place
My guess would be another 4 - 6 weeks. But i am perfectly prepared to listen to impartial scientific advice.
Johnson has decided that wealth is worth more than lives. More people will die because of his confused relaxation of lockdown
Why would the MRT be more affected by the virus than the rest of the population?
I think what we have to take from the MRT response is if they are wiped out with Covid, who’ll be there to help those in need on the fells?
The government? These organisations and the RNLI only exist because historically it wasn't provided by the state. If they didn't exist now there would be considerable pressure on the government to provide the service.
We have a government funded Bristow SAR Heli service and the RAF mountain rescue (no aircraft) who could do the job.
Pettyfogging rules restricting exercise were always a nonsense, healthy outdoor exercise needs to encouraged for good health. Increasingly hysterical worst-case scenarios of what might happen if we step outside are not sensible or proportionate to the risk. Depressing the immune systems of the healthier part of the population through incarceration at home, shroud-waving and social isolation is taking a wrecking-ball to society, a ludicrous experiment the consequences of which will likely dwarf the direct effects of the virus.
@tjagain I’ll ignore the last paragraph as I always switch off when people try to tell me what they think other people’s motives are.
The rest sounds like a logical position. I’d argue that we don’t know the R number. We can model it, but those models are imprecise. We can try to estimate if from infection and death rates, but those estimates only tell us what it was (due to the incubation period) not what it is now.
I’d argue that a proper track and trace method will never happen as that strategy doesn’t work in the long term for a disease where people can be asymptomatic and still transmit it. It will slow the spread for a while, but presumably we’re not going to close our borders (including with England) so asymptomatic people will still spread it to other asymptomatic people until it overwhelms any track and trace system.
I wouldn’t say that your approach is wrong, but it is a position that will result in a very long lockdown, with all the negative consequences that brings, including many deaths.
Why would MRT be more affected than general population?
Because they have to take a large percentage of their team (probably 16 for a stretcher carry) into close contact with a casualty who may have covid. That takes out most of a team and their families. You'll note in the "story" that the passers by (general population who would normally help) chose to social distance.
How about the teams say "If you are heading into the hills, don't take your phone, so if you get in trouble you get yourself out"?
Remember those American kids who went to Florida on spring break at the start of the lockdown? All the howls of protest about how selfish they were travelling to an area with a large elderly population just to party. Have we seen spikes in cases in those areas? Apparently not. In fact, it’s hard to find any evidence that interacting with people outside results in increased transmission (although I accept that it’s early days).
If MRT want to say “don’t call us as we think the risk to our team is too high for us to carry out rescues at this time” then that’s fine by me. They are a volunteer organisation. Maybe it is time (as stated above) that we thought about having professionals doing that job anyway.
Roverpig - actually we have - not in the kids especially but in the areas they went to. Now we are seeing spikes in the US in areas that did not lockdown.
Test track and trace is the only way out of this without huge numbers of extra deaths.
An NHS that has more spare capacity than it has ever had.
Really?
There will be a lot of figures thrown out there, but the reality is, they have created capacity very specifically for patients with Covid. This comes at the expense of other patients who will not receive the treatment they so desperately need, some of which will die as a result.
When you know people personally who are no longer receiving the care they need due to the pandemic, it's infuriating to see people suggest that they have more capacity than ever.
I didn’t say why they had spare capacity. You are right, it is mostly because they delayed procedures to prepare for a wave that never came (for most hospitals). Or at least hasn’t come yet. I agree that getting out of this will be tricky. But I see that the BBC are reporting that attendance at A&E is at an all time low. So that is hardly a reason for people to stay out of the hills.
@tjagain I’d be interested in a reference for the Florida cases. I was watching an interview with a pro-lockdown epidemiologist from Florida last night and she conceded that they hadn’t seen spikes associated with those spring break parties. But even experts can be wrong 😄
My understanding was that the Spring Break risk wasn't all the youngsters passing it on to the old folk - cos that's pretty niche, even by Spring Break video standards - but that they spread it amongst themselves and then took it back home with them to whichever redneck backwater they came from.
I've seen no evidence to support or disprove if the concern was valid, but the map of phone dispersal was pretty impressive if the virus was with the phone owners
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3161293067248146&id=143186032392213
Gisburn forest trails are open
...they delayed procedures to prepare for a wave that never came (for most hospitals)...
Yet...
Some seem to believe CV19 is basically done and if we've survived so far we're in the clear. But it's not done yet, 'R' does not yet =0 does it...
If MRT want to say “don’t call us as we think the risk to our team is too high for us to carry out rescues at this time” then that’s fine by me. They are a volunteer organisation. Maybe it is time (as stated above) that we thought about having professionals doing that job anyway.
Isn't the point that CV19 adds an additional risk to already 'risky' activities, the libertarian "it's only my own life I'm risking" attitude is seldom really the case, if you need pulling off of a mountain tomorrow it's not just you you've endangered it's the rescue team and all of the emergency service personnel involved in your chain of care.
Paid or not they potentially have to deal with the consequences of choices that apparently "only affect the individual"...
butcher
MemberThere will be a lot of figures thrown out there, but the reality is, they have created capacity very specifically for patients with Covid. This comes at the expense of other patients who will not receive the treatment they so desperately need, some of which will die as a result.
Yup. It's like not paying your mortgage or your car insurance and saying you have spare money
if you need pulling off of a mountain tomorrow it’s not just you you’ve endangered it’s the rescue team and all of the emergency service personnel involved in your chain of care.
It might have been cited already, but the Coniston MRT FB feed ran a post illustrating what the consequence of them rescuing a casualty who turned out to be unwittingly positive for the virus. Potentially it could end up with most of the team self-isolating and the knock-on for the next call-out would be that there mostly wouldn't be a team to call. And that's before you factor in the human side of it.
It's not just that you're dragging folk out onto the hills to get you - mostly MRT folk quite like that side of things ime - it's the potential collateral stuff. Apologies if it's been posted already:
Yet…
I’m not sure why you edited my quote to remove the bit where I said exactly that. The rest of your post seems to be arguing against positions that I don’t hold, but that’s fine, maybe it’s not directed at me and even if it is, knock yourself out. I’m not interested in arguing for the sake of it, just trying to understand a confusing situation as best I can.
I’m not sure what the problem is in pointing out that our hospitals are not currently under pressure. There is spare capacity at the moment. I don’t deny the reasons for that or seek to minimise the problems that will cause in the long run. I was simply pointing out that the statement from mountain rescue telling people not to go into the hills this weekend to avoid putting stress on the NHS doesn’t make much sense when A&E visits are at their lowest ever recorded level.
Riding along the local canal track early today: ten 'anglers' sleeping on cots right next to the path, sometimes actually on it, never more than 200m from the nearest parking spot; the track itself blocked by rods so I had to lift the bike over.
Fancy a bivi? Fill your boots, nobody else gives a shit.
Gisburn forest trails are open
This is a tricky one for me, but for now I'll be staying away (and, more generally, staying off the more technical off-road stuff). I've got a pretty good track record of not requiring medical attention when riding, but I'm very aware that mountain biking does come with some risk and that it won't be me picking up the bits if I do get injured.
Not preaching to others BTW - we all do what we think is right in our own circumstances. I've been doing 150 miles/week on the road bike since the start of lockdown with a completely clear conscience. If I want to avoid catching this thing or, perhaps more importantly, avoid spreading it to others, then I can't think of a single, better way to exercise than to go on a nice, long road ride (usually with my son) well away from other people. I'm very much aware that a single visit to the supermarket imparts far more risk than 2 months of bike rides put together, so my conscience is entirely clear in this regard.
Hoping for some relaxation of group riding restrictions in the coming weeks though - my boy misses his riding friends!
I did say that I expected lots of anglers to be camping out as soon as fishing was allowed, so I'm not in the least surprised.
Hoping for some relaxation of group riding restrictions in the coming weeks though
This is the one part of lockdown I've really missed, and the one I'm least looking forward to starting too soon. Already got some friends doing the supposedly "socially distant" ride with someone from another household, but I'm not convinced the risk of spreading is low enough for me to want to risk sharing whatever we are all picking up from the supermarket and workplace.
This is the one part of lockdown I’ve really missed, and the one I’m least looking forward to starting too soon. Already got some friends doing the supposedly “socially distant” ride with someone from another household, but I’m not convinced the risk of spreading is low enough for me to want to risk sharing whatever we are all picking up from the supermarket and workplace.
Yes, seen a few people out with friends now. TBH, if they are working from home and being generally sensible about social isolation, then they are probably no more likely to have this thing than I am, and thus I wouldn't be overly concerned about the actual risk. Can't wait for a bit more relaxation so we can actually get out properly with friends though!
