I'd think Carbon will come to dominate at least the mainstream market.
The whole 29er debate will kind of disappear as people just ride what they want to ride and the prices become comparable.
Cannondale will continue to produce weird bouncing stuff. I'd be interested if their whole "over mountain" Jekyll thing will catch on.
I bet the Orange 5 is still around 🙂 but my nomination for now is the Santa Cruz Tallboy (I suspect their 2013 version will be the best ;))
The "cynic-al Honker Turbo", released in 2018, with proprietry 37 speed xtr brake system, hermetically sealed, X0 self cleaning transmission will be a complete flop due to the fragility of its underdeveloped recycled polypropylene frameset.
On the other hand, the "cynic-al Niche Fanboy special" will generate a revolution in back to basics cycling, with reliable tubed tyres, steel rims, caliper rim brakes and quaint steel frame.
Carbon will continue to be expensive.
Steel hardtaisl will continue to be poular, because it already has nothing to do with weight and people who ride them are generaly doing so for fun, not to race.
The price point at which ranges switch form alu to carbon will drop to include budget full sussers.
A gearbox standard will exist.
We'll see the end of bikes designed to go up as well as down by the designed sticking a ridiculously steep seatube on an other wise great frame and calling it Calderdale-New-Skool, its not good, its uncomfortable if your fork locks down rather than out leaving you with a 80deg seat angle!
I have a feeling that the ABP/Split pivot rear suspension design will become more popular. As will the Mondraker Zero system.
Suspension will get elctronics in it to link the front and rear and allow 'on the fly' adjustment in the same way motorcycle stuff has over the last few year.
And loco will have a brand of suspension..............
Electronics in suspension you say? 😛
I wouldn't bet against it, Cannondale have already been messing with their 'Simon' fork.
[i]Electronics in suspension you say?[/i]
Cannondale had an electronic lockout on their Lefty back in about 2002...
I mean advanced stuff, like having race, cruise, downhill damping and travel settings all adjustable at the touch of a button.
Also the fork sencing a bumps size and shape and passing the info to the rear to adjust itself accordingly.
However that maybe a bit of a stretch 😀 😉
You're missing the main (IMO) advantage of electronics in suspension (or any other interconectivity between front and rear).
Remember hydronumatic suspension form the 80/90's?
Link the front and rear spings and dampers by a clever system of valves and lines and you can have a rear end as firm as a hardtail but opens up to as much travel as you want as soon as it senses the fork taking a hit.
That's kind of what I meant spoon. Totally programable you could program your own custom suspension 'Maps'
Old school poster is disappointed at the n00bs...
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Haha, feel free to give me a job designing it, its not a million miles away from what I was playing arround with for my masters at uni.
😆 at Al. Spoon if I could afford to employ a designer I would the cost of R&D for a project of this magnitude means it's out of my reach at the moment, really just a comment on what is possible and where it maybe going.
The cost of the system would probably be prohibitive on mass market bikes £2K range and only be fitted on top end stuff at £7k mark to start with. Who knows, I'm guessing Canondale will probably be the first people to come up with something like this as they're the most inovative with this kind of thing for good or ill
Haha, did those proflex ever work?
Noticed the guy on the swinley forum ride had modified his to take a manitou swinger (which says how bad noleen are!).
Remember those Proflexes with electronic suspension? that was around 99/00 I think.
I reckon there will be some more niche genres - perhaps 'Every Mountain' or 'Not so Freeride' or maybe 'Super Duper Mountain.'
On that note, I think the bike of the decade will be the 'Specialized Super Duper Mountain AC-DC (Electronic) ShockForx Extreme FSR' and it will probably have a 16 inch front wheel with 1.5 tyre and a 29 inch Surley type rear wheel with 8.75432 tyre and will make you go quicker than you have ever ridden. Ever.
That's the one!
Here's a few of my predictions:
Belt drive and internal hub gears will all be more refined, cheaper and more expensive depending on whether you go for the XTR or Deore version.
Fat-bikes will become the new niche when 29er's become mainstream.
Someone will change the headset standard, circa 2016-17
Current 11 sprocket road cassette technology will make it to MTB
We'll still be building wheels using conventional spokes, but carbons rims will be more common/ stronger/ more durable and cheaper.
I'll still be riding a titanium bike.
Spoon, were you in Cardiff doing electro-magnetic suspension stuff, getting the shocks gassed at Mojo?
You mean 11 speed?
We've had 11t since 8 speed.
Or do you mean <11t? In which case DT/Spesh have beeten you to it. On that note, I predict a new cassette standard, probably based arround a big alluminium freehub, that takes individual (even if you only purchase them as a set) steel rings, more akin to what we have on chainsets, thus eliminting those stupifyingly heavy deore cassettes forever.
You mean 11 speed?
Yes, edited.
orange will probably have a single pivot bike that 'just works' and wins awards 🙂
No I was in Sheffield sticking sensors on carbon hockey sticks and (trying to) break them, making ski's faster (this bit actualy worked!) and modeling dampers in CFD (which was just a headache).
Nice, have looked a modelling dampers on a couple of programs when back at uni, bit of a nightmare really, however the programs have moved on a bit since I was there!
Will we ever see a carbon Soul...? Engineered with same geo and feel but less weight.
Haha, I wouldn't bet on it. Then again it was quicker for us to run simulations on begged/stolen/borrowed laptops than the uni network so my oppinion may be biased.
It would probably have been quicker to rebuild a damper and run it on a dyno!
Lots more internal gear hubs.
Yes I know what you mean 10 mins start up on the design computers, 15/20 mins calculation followed by it crashings. At any one time there would be a couple of students swearing with their head in their hands!
No idea what other packages are like but ours only did fluid modeling, so between each run the deflection of the shims had to be calculated then modeled in the CAD package, then imported into the CFD software, etc etc etc
Was basic Floworks, on solidworks, cartoon design package!
I have a newish copy but haven't loaded it yet as really need a separte machine to run it without slowing the laptop down badly.
If yer talking about a 'bike of the decade', then I think it has to be something as mundane as Specialized Hardrock, simply because it's bikes like that which get more people into proper mountain biking than any bells and whistles fancy several grand jobby. £300 or so for a proper offroad capable bike. Yeah, that'd get my vote.
Specialized Hardrock...£300 or so for a proper offroad capable bike.
Was my first bike, back in 1991. Shimano 200GS groupset with 21 gears, don't you know 😉
Power assisted bikes are the future.
Why pedal your bike when it can pedal for you?
456 summer season
Intense M9 (look at the number of M1's still running - any bike that lasts the whole decade should be a contender)
[Power assisted bikes are the future.
Why pedal your bike when it can pedal for you?]
Don't we already have these made by Honda Kawasaki Suzuki ect that we all curse at when we encounter them on our favorite trail
There will be no mountain biking by 2020 as all the hills and Forests will have been converted to "outdoor fun malls" with 200 seat restaurants where we shall sit and eat cake and talk about ye old steel frames.
Roll on 2018 can't wait for the MBR review of the "cynic-al Honker Turbo".
The price point at which ranges switch form alu to carbon will drop to include budget full sussers.
Thisisnotaspoon This is what I meant by my comment so thanks for putting it so well!
But I do like elfinsafety vision of a ubiquitous £300 bike that can really bring MTB to the masses.
Re Electronics in suspension.
When you look at gyros and inclinometers in mobiles now, just linking front and rear is a little short sighted.
What about the sus detecting that you are now travelling downhill and therefore opening it out full throttle (So to speak)?
Perhaps pre-sets that you can select for the conditions or type of trail?
Don't know that it's something I'd want myself, but there you go. Hell, why not for brakes too, modulation adjusted by a preset? Front/rear bias etc.
Come to think of it - anyone in the know as to how far ahead bike companies are actually planning?
Are the 2012 bikes already designed?
The Reebok Reprobate, tracksuits compulsory. 😉
bobster, I see what your saying the level you could take it to is almost limitless, however cost and complexity are the issue, would you really want to ahve to take your bike to the dealership for them to run diagnostics on it when it broke.
Actually, thinking about it I can see a potential money spinner here 😉
Hang on, whats the bike of this decade then? 2000 to 2010. Actually thats a whole new thread....
think we will have a 'really rich only' xtr-r groupset
bikes will have more aerodynamics to them following road form.
Orange will still make the 5 and following car manufactures, there will only be 5 main companies of bikes with many different brands under them
LoCoActually, thinking about it I can see a potential money spinner here
Want to go into business? 😈