Morning morning, what a day we have in store. Iconic mountains, a hill top finish, a tight GC battle and I’m working from home so get to watch it all. Winning.

In recent years, col d’Aubisque (2007), col du Tourmalet (2010) and col du Galibier (2011) have hosted extraordinary stage finishes whereas the Tour de France usually crests those summits and proceed to another destination. It’s a mission to logistically organize stage finishes atop those legendary climbs. They aren’t ski resorts but natural beauties. This year, it’s the turn of the Izoard as the Grande Boucle celebrates the 40th anniversary of Bernard Thévenet’s second victory. In everyone’s mind, the Frenchman’s first overall win in 1975 was more touching because the day after he dethroned Eddy Merckx in Pra-Loup, he received the visit of the first French three times winner of the Tour. Louison Bobet instructed him to enter the Casse Déserte alone and pass the Izoard first. It was something a Maillot Jaune HAD to do. Thévenet did it. Bobet was three times first at the Izoard and Fausto Coppi twice [in the Tour de France]. On 22 July 1953, instead of defending his title, Coppi was on the road side to take a photograph of Bobet alone in the lead. Two kilometers before the top, in the most arid part of the grueling climb, Coppi and Bobet share a stele. If Chris Froome cares about the legend, he’ll do his best to win with the yellow jersey in a solo effort atop the Izoard. It’ll be his first time racing on this climb as it was the case at the Galibier on stage 17. He’s got the team to help him achieve the maximum result but Rigoberto Uran and Romain Bardet who are only 27 seconds down on him on GC probably have other ideas. The grand finale in the mountains this year is an unprecedented one.

The Route: an opening phase of 50km south up the Durance valley, a strengh-sapping road especially if the wind is up but also the chance for any optimistic breakaway candidates to establish a lead by the time they reach the cobalt waters of the Serre-Ponçon lake and then the climbing beings, first with a climb that rises away from the lake, no mountain pass but still good for some KoM points.

The Col de Vars is 9.3km at 7.5% and climbs beyond 2,100m above sea level but feels fast for a lot of the way, there’s even a small descent but this all adds to the illusion of an easy climb until the final kilometres where the altitude and gradient bite. They drop to Guillestre via a long descent but it’s not technical or difficult, the road is long and straight and the middle part of the descent is flat, even uphill at times. After Guillestre it starts climbing the scenic “whitewater” road of the Combe de Queyras as they approach the final climb.

The Finish: a hors catégorie climb. 14.1km at 7.3% would be a hard climb if this was a level ramp but it’s not, a gentle start only means a higher price to pay later at altitude. The early slopes are as the profile suggests and then at Brunissard the slope pitches up and the hairpins begin, complete with the defining Izoard or Queyras landscape of scree and pine trees beside the road. The profile says 10% but there’s 12-14% to contend with early on. It’s all on a relentless, wide road, it’s hard to get out of sight. The Col de la Platrière is reached and followed by a brief 500m descent, nothing technical and normally the chance to take in the views of the Casse Déserte area and its unusual rock formations before the final two kilometres to the finish, uphill at 9-10%.

Usual suspects for a win? Maybe, lets have a look.

The Contenders: Chris Froome has yet to win a stage. You don’t have to win a stage to win the Tour de France – see Roger Walkowkiak, Greg LeMond or Oscar Pereiro – but every winner wants to stamp their seal on the race. Now desire and capability are two different things but Froome has matched all the attacks from his rivals and only has to do so again before launching into a final flurry of blurred limbs to take the stage win.

Romain Bardet will attack but will it pay off? He had to be held back from attacking yesterday by his team but this time there’s no pesky headwind descent. Especially if Fabio Aru can be ejected prior then the field is open for Bardet to attack without any downside, heads he drops Froome and Urán and wins the Tour de France, tails he doesn’t but still finishes on the podium with bonus points for panache.

It’s a similar story for Rigoberto Urán. He’s been content to follow throughout the race but one successful attack can change everything and if it doesn’t pay off then he’s still on the podium. That said he’s raced cautiously and this has delivered 22 seconds in time bonuses so far so once again he can track the others and sprint for any time bonuses.

Is Mikel Landa the strongest climber in the race? Will he be on team duty? These two questions create a tension. Not the polemic sort, rather he is capable of winning the stage but could be on duty and that includes helping Froome to the time bonus on offer so as much as Landa may want the glory he’s paid to help Froome take time.

Warren Barguil is climbing with the best as we saw on the Galibier. He can go in a breakaway or follow the leaders and pick off the stage win. Dan Martin is an outside pick, he can get away from the others as we’ve seen but today’s stage is a prestigious one and so he’ll have even less room.

Can the breakaway stay clear? Maybe but the chances look slim as Team Sky and others will race hard to the approach of the Col de Vars and the Col d’Izoard.

Didi.

Epic.

The winning attack

Galibier is all kinds of epic, stunning mountain.

Everyne loves a climbers sprint. The favourite, the fans favourite and the dark horse battle it out.

Excited for today. Mountain top finishes are what the tour is all about for me.
Thankyou for your daily previews lunge.

Phew.
As if yesterday wasn’t exciting enough.

I truely have no idea who will win today’s stage, I think I’ve burned out all my favourites, all my lads who I like.

I think Froomy might win.

This is what the Tour is about. Unfortunately all I’ll get to see are highlights of whatever bits of the last climb Eurosport choose to show.

There’s been far too few genuine GC stages on this Tour. No wonder it’s still so close. A lesson in how to artificially manufacture a close race.

I did that stage on Sunday…. it was BRUTAL!! especially in the heat. If the weather turns today it could be carnage as some of the descents have new bits of tarmac. Damn shame Im stuck in meetings all afternoon and then out tonight, will have to catch up on the itvplayer later.

Also La Course is on at 9am.

Yerbut, no one watches Women’s Sport unless they’re scantily dressed and grunt. 😐

Be good though, I reckon

We have an entire day of live cycling to watch though 🙂

I suspect Sky will do their thing and grind people into the ground, It’s not the most exciting to watch but it works for them, it would be nice to see Froome under more pressure…having said that he’s rode a good race and deserves the win now.
And would like to add my thanks to Lunge.

Briançon is rather a pretty location for a depart, hope they make the most of some of the backdrops.

Uran to go for a long one, only to be mercilessly drawn back on the Izoard. Bardet for the stage, Froome second. 30 seconds to Uran.

I really have no idea what’s going to happen today… but it’s damn sure going to be interesting.

it would be nice to see Froome under more pressure

He’s under plenty of pressure now isn’t he?

flurry of blurred limbs

😆

flurry of blurred limbs

Octopus falling out of a very tall tree.

I’d managed to completely miss the changes to La Course! Good to see a move to multiple stages, bit of a shame that they’re not finishing in Paris.

Anyway, should be good today – all of the Sky train except Froome and Landa gave everything yesterday, so may not be as dominant today. I expect various desperate attacks from Martin/Aru, Barguil to be active, and Fromme/Bardet/Uran/Landa to stick close together.. The big question is will one of them blow?

Variflex – I guess you did the Etape on Sunday? It’s quite fun to see how many Etape participants fall outside the time limit set by the pros.. some years it’s 100% !!(fastest amateur this year was 5:15)

I mean on the road…though as I said he’s done well.

Either Bardet, Aru or Uran need to go on the Vars (and hope a couple of strong riders go with them), they know if they leave an attack to the CdIzoard Froome will be able to respond (unless he has a really bad day). Looks an easier stage to control for Sky until the CdVars so can’t see them getting caught napping (as in the Vuelta) by an early split (although that would certainly make for an exciting stage).
Assuming the GC is together on the CdIzoard then it’s likely Froome will attack with 3-4km to go (especially if the stage win is a possibility), I’ll get a Sky tattoo done if he boos at the crowd whilst dropping Bardet :p

Three stages before Paris and thirty seconds splitting the top three isn’t close or putting pressure on the leader? Froome himself has said that in previous years he’s been several minutes up by the second rest day.

As for the stage: could go either way – the GC contenders simply mark each other for the entire stage and someone from a breakaway group gets the win or they properly go for it in a glory or bust head to head.

I’m not sure Sky have the firepower at this stage to grind everyone else into the ground, yesterday by the time they got to the Telegraphe there was only really Landa and Nieve with Froome.

Well, it looks blooming lovely there on Eurosport at the mo’.

One thing you missed in the preview.
Riders need to watch out for wild bees on the Vars, they have a taste for bike riders!

Hoping we don’t get a headwind again today, hoping for some very attacking racing.

Hoping for Uran iran to do the ride of his life and put himself in contention for the win

Aru will do a Martin and go way too early, and like Martin, pop.

Bardet will then have a pop. Uran will shadow Froome and expect him to close down any gaps to Bardet. Then Uran will push on. Froome will counter that as well and then have a dig himself, just to put this to bed.

Off for a quick CX ride now. Then back for late brekkie and then soak up the backdrop on TV for the rest of the day 8)

Another great day of racing, including La Course. Think it might still be tight on the GC after today though. Wish I was watching on one of the mountains with a cool box full of beer…

I think Landa, Nieve and Froome count as firepower…When I say under pressure I mean on the road, for that to happen he needs to be isolated and attacked, I’d like to see how he copes with that..it’s a credit to him and his team that they’ve stopped that from happening.

Sky all day with Gc lads in tow. Maybe a break up the road, scrap on the Izoard. Bar crashes or mechanicals I reckon the TT will be the decider.
I actually hope it goes off all day on every big climb!

Assuming the GC is together on the CdIzoard then it’s likely Froome will attack with 3-4km to go

Be great if he does..

yesterday by the time they got to the Telegraphe there was only really Landa and Nieve with Froome.

Once Kiri has got done making a mess of the other teams, he doesn’t really need anyone else. From memory, only Sky had more than one rider in that group by the time they got to Landa and Nieve.

Once Kiri has got done making a mess of the other teams, he doesn’t really need anyone else. From memory, only Sky had more than one rider in that group by the time they got to Landa and Nieve.

That’s my memory too. Kiri and Luke Rowe to a lesser degree smash everyone up from the start, Knees looks after Froome in the body guard role then Kwaito does the lower slopes before leaving him with Nieve and Landa, not a bad couple of domestiques to be left with really. Uran on the other hand has no-one, even though in my head Rolland should be there with him.

Aru’s had little support all tour and Bardet had 1 day when his team swarmed and not much since.

Poor Aru. I genuinely feel sorry for the bloke, immutable smile, very little team support (I have to say I don’t think Astana fully appreciated Aru and therefore put in a team that looked for a single stage win only) to find they’ve had, and lost a full on title battle and potentially lost him to another team. But once Nibbles went to Merida, it was a very short time before Aru went somewhere else too.. for all thier infighting Nibbs and Aru are a formidable pairing.
I sadly think Aru will crack today, once out of town he’ll think ” Che Palle” and that’ll be it, over.

Uran, lots of support for Uran haven’t you. Cool, if anyone can lay claim to riding smart.. it’s him.

Listen.. shhhhhhhhh!!!
You can hear the Sky train warming up 😆

even though in my head Rolland should be there with him.

Rolland was off the back almost from the start yesterday (finished 6th from last, 33 mins down). I know he got the team a stage win at the Giro but surely he’d be better off helping Uran than trying (and most likely failing) to get in a mountain stage break? It could be a master plan and he’ll be working hard today so kept his powder dry yesterday but for some reason I doubt it, he and Talansky are 55th and 56th on the GC, quite a disappointment from a pair who are definitely capable on their day.

Watching La Course now – valleys look amazing!

I’d forgotten about Talansky, yeah, he should be there too. On paper, he and Rolland are a couple of strong mountain domestqiues, in practise, they’ve proved no use to Uran at all.

I’m not sure Sky have the firepower at this stage to grind everyone else into the ground, yesterday by the time they got to the Telegraphe there was only really Landa and Nieve with Froome.

The stage today is not nearly as hard at the beginning as yesterday. I don’t think the will have to burn Kiri and Kwiatko so early today.

The surprise for me is how anonymous Henao has been this Tour.

Going to be a fascinating day.

Froome, he’ll want a stage win. He’s looked comfortable covering everything though I don’t think he’s put in a single attack this Tour (maybe once on Belles Filles) but then he’s not had to. Think he needs to go earlier if he wants to beat Bardet. I wonder how worried he is about Uran in the ITT, if he has a bad day then he’s still better than Bardet but could lose time to Rigo if he rediscovers his TT form of old.

Bardet, needs time on Uran. May even come under pressure for a podium spot from Landa in the ITT if the times stay as they are now. If he wants to do better than 3rd then he needs to attack. But other than short sprint to grab a few seconds in an uphill finish we’ve not seen anything that the others can’t reel in.

Uran, knows he has the beating of Bardet in the ITT and will just mark him. Will he attack Froome? I don’t think he’ll risk his podium spot for the win.

Sky, they’ve been setting a tempo but it’s not been as fierce as previous Tours, they’re not as strong. Think it’s been steadier and less draining on the GC riders. Dan Martin said as much yesterday. Was surprising to see Nieve dropped before Kwiatkowski had finished his turn yesterday, might have an impact on how they play it today. If they are serious about setting up Froome for a win today they need to get Nieve and Landa on the front and working early on the Izoard.

Prediction for GC… Froome and Sky to control much as they did yesterday. Bardet to attack and get reeled back, much as he did yesterday. Uran to shadow Bardet. Someone to nab a few more seconds at the finish but not enough to really shake things up.

Since Talansky won the Dauphiné he’s done bugger all really. I assume he’s good with sponsors because surely his potential has been proven unrealised for long enough now.

I predict a battle to the death for the skinny chaps. Contador to chuck everything he has at it but It’ll end up with Froome and Uran in a final shoot out until Landa loses the plot and takes them both.

Speaking of La Course, WTF are they doing letting a TT rider get up the road. If she gets to the top ahead, she has every chance of destroying them on Saturday.

Never mind. She’s blown

Is there anything similar to http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2017/us/live/aso/index.html for live tracking of the La Course? I couldn’t spot anything on their website