The sun is shining, the tour is in the Alps and Lunge is a happy man. Big day today, massive.

Chris Froome has attacked downhill (to Bagnères-de-Luchon, his only stage win so far), on the flat (to Montpellier with Peter Sagan), uphill (to Mont Ventoux, before being stopped by a crash). He’s been the best of the GC contenders against the clock in the Ardèche. He faked an attack to test his rivals on the Grand Colombier. He seems to have the race under his hand for the third time. He can go for the last mountainous part of the race on a defensive mode. His advantage is 1.47 over Bauke Mollema, 2.45 over Adam Yates and 2.59 over Nairo Quintana. It’s significant but not enormous. Froome is the only rider who has experienced losing the yellow jersey at Finhaut-Emosson. It happened at the Critérium du Dauphiné two years ago. Everything seemed under control for Team Sky but Alberto Contador attacked them in the last two kilometers. The hors-category final climb is a grueling one. Lieuwe Westra’s stage victory at the Dauphiné recalls the possibility for a winning breakaway in the only entire Swiss stage of the Tour de France. FDJ’s Steve Morabito and Sébastien Reichenbach who are the locals might be inspired.

The contenders, well, we’ll have to see.

Chris Froome is the safe pick, he’s in yellow but will want the defining stage win in the maillot jaune and what better way for him to approach the following days in the Alps having thrashed his rivals in this summit finish?

Richie Porte is next, if Froome is climbing well then Porte briefly looked better on Mont Ventoux before he collided with the motorbike. He should enjoy this steep climb but beware of the heat, his stocky build is a touch less suited to it.

It’s D-Day for Nairo Quintana, discovery day. While you suspect even Vladimir and Estragon are getting tired of waiting for Nairo to attack this is a big test for his promised third week assault. Don’t hold your breath with talk of him being ill but if he’s recovered from his savaging by the Mistral wind he could and should still be a factor. If not then Alejandro Valverde is waiting but it looks like too much for him to win the stage.

Fabio Aru and Romain Bardet are the outside picks, Chris Froome and Team Sky could afford to let them go but it’s not in their style to gift wins or give away time and if either of these try to take time others in the top-10 are likely to react.

Among the breakaway picks Rafa? Majka and Ilnur Zakarin were the best climbers on the Grand Colombier and if they can infiltrate the day’s breakaway they’ll find the finish suits them well.

I’ll post some rest day pics and opinions when I have access to a PC as doing this on my iPad is driving me mad!

That last climb up to Emosson dam is bloody massive!! Was out there a few weeks ago with Bike Verbier, and even in a van it took **** ages to get anywhere near the top of it.

Wonder how that Yates lad will do today, am hoping he starts to have a little more of a go at the big boys today. Be great to see him on the podium in gay Pareee.

Can understand why Cav has packed his bags but would have loved to see him try for the win in Paris.

I see Cav went for “tests” yesterday, did he come back to the hotel or was it thinly veiled disguise to get him on a flight home? I’d love to see him take the win in Paris

as for today, It’s Nairo’s showdown. If he’s got it, he’s got to bring it out. I don’t think he has

Oh how I wish I was watching this live at home with many chilled beers. The last climb does look very steep, and i’m not sure who that will suit. I think Froome will be looking to do well and he seems in great shape to do it, especially after leaving Quintana on Ventoux. He is also good in the heat too. I do want to see others attacking though, but not sure if Movistar have the strength to make an attack stick, especially with Sky still having a full team on the road. Looking at pictures of the last climb it looks like some sections can’t have spectators because it is narrow and very steep either side? If so then that might be a blessing in disguise.

EDIT – would love to see Yates continue to do well, really hope he makes the podium on Sunday

I don’t think anoyone will massively trouble Sky or Froome now. They may take 20-30s one day.. maybe a different day… but overall i think it’s over for this year apart from some excitement.

Funny on the ITV4 coverage yesterday they were playing down the importance of today, and that tomorrow’s time trial would be the day to make time.

Really hope Yates has a go, be brilliant to see him on the podium, comes across sound in his interviews. I’m guessing he’ll need to try and make time to stick on third?

Cav was being a bit cagey in his interview too, should have just said ‘there’s a good chance I’m leaving as BC want me back.’

Never seen Froome look as chilled, rested and generally ‘well’ as when he was interviewed yesterday. It’d be lovely to see Yates podium in Paris but suspect the next few days will take their toll

No change in the overall but a change in the following field is my bet.

BBC confirm Cav’s gone home. Their detail is ropey though, I’ve not heard of british rider “Andy Yates” who’s looking to have a go at Froome if he gets the oppprtunity, and while it’s good to see that they are covering Cummings’ call up to the Olypmic squad their GB Cycling squad list doesn’t mention Grant Ferguson competing in MTB XCO

I think Froome will smash it today, and put to rest all the comments that he’s already won it by, well, winning it.

I see Cav went for “tests” yesterday, did he come back to the hotel or was it thinly veiled disguise to get him

Cav announced yesterday he was going home to prepare for Rio.

Announcement Here

Cav’s gone, it was on his and Peta’s Twitter feeds last night. Real shame, I’d have loved to see him going for the win on Champs-Elysees but 4 tough days in the Alps before it is probably not worth his time before Rio. 🙁

Today – BMC and Movistar really need to come up with some sort of two-pronged attack on Sky. Otherwise it’ll become a fight for the lower placings. I hope Yates stays up there.

Friday’s monster stage to Mont Blanc looks good. Have a word with Tejay, get him to lose a heap of time and rest up over the next couple of days. He’s cooked anyway. Send him up the road in the early break, and When you hit the beginning of the Montee de Bisanne at 60km to go, gun it. Go hard. Sky and Movistar will be too busy looking at each other, and they’ll think you’re going too far out. Bridge up to Tejay and keep it going. You might get caught. You might not. You might get a stage win. You might claw back enough time to get third, or second, or maybe – just maybe – yellow. You might blow up spectacularly and roll in half an hour down. It doesn’t matter.

http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/blog/2016/07/20/attack-australia-richie

Some more than partisan Australian advice 🙂

Some rest day pics:
Froome’s office.

The Giant Alpesin “coffee” stop.

Cav, gone.

No bikes, Gangnam Style.

I’ve gone for Valverde today cos I think the arse will fall out of Quintana and Valverde will get team orders to get up the road. I’m almost certain to be wrong though.

Would like to see Froome put under some pressure, can’t see where it’s going to come from though..

With the steepness of the final climb it is made for Quintana but I don’t think he has the legs. A lot of people are going to struggle today, I’ll take a gamble at predicting a win for Aru.

@nickc very interesting BV would take you up there, long way from their base with no obvious way back, ride down to Martigny and train/van back ?

Today moviestar and BMC need to give it a lash. Torn re Yates, the white jersey is massive, follow wheels and try to keep it and the podium. Would love to see him attack but he’s young and his time is to come. Froome just needs to mark people as you imagine he will more than hold his own in the TT.

We did it with BV, getting the train from Martigny to Finhault, then riding up to the dam before the most amazing of descents all the way back down to Martigny. FWIR it was quite a drag of a climb on our ‘enduro-sleds’!

Froome will want to win this, unless there’s an irrelevant break, in which case he’ll still gap his rivals on the final climb just like Ventoux.

I don’t really see it as a Valverde climb. It will be nice to see if that attack by Ritchie on Ventoux can be repeated and if it will stick (spectators allowing). Though I think the stick insect will come whirling up as usual.

More time to be won or lost tomorrow I think.

Gavin, thanks ! 700m climb to dam from station 😯 ? Any other route hints ? Follow railway back down to Vernanyaz ? I will be out again in a few weeks and happy happy with a map. To be honest if its 700m up that TdF climb I won’t be doing that.

It was near enough 800m, and yes, it is just straight up that climb!

Movistar are cooking something up with Astana apparently so I’m predicting an attack on the Cat 1 climb from Aru/Nibali. Movistar to get on the front and try and do a “Sky” to put Froome under pressure but all that will achieve is to knacker Quintana even more.

Froome will want to put this beyond doubt today and the stage suits him so I expect a big effort on the final climb with Richie Porte and Bauke Mollema trailing behind him but putting time into the other GC contenders. I’m not sure what Adam Yates will do and hoping he will be in the mix but suspect the attacks will just be too much for him.

You might claw back enough time to get third, or second, or maybe – just maybe – yellow. You might blow up spectacularly and roll in half an hour down. It doesn’t matter.

I doubt we’ll see it but it would be fun to watch!

Froome’s office.

Wonder when that was taken? Full on TT bike for stage 18?

Interesting that he’s got the map view up. I wonder if that’s just to follow the course for training or if he uses the map view when racing? Rode some unfamiliar big long descents a few weeks back following the garmin and it was surprisingly useful in seeing what was coming up to judge how much speed to carry (e.g. a shallow bend or a hairpin.)

Tough one to call today. A fair few mountain points on offer so could be a day for the break. Reckon Sky will be happy to have an easy ride up to the Forclaz so will depend on whether one of the other GC teams want to pick it up. I doubt they will. Wouldn’t be surprised to see all the GC teams try and get riders in the break too.

Bardet for a gallant attack. Froome to bring him back. Quintana will fail to deliver. GC unchanged.

Cav’s tests showed that his passport was still valid, and that obviously an extra week of race taper is better than floggng oneself over the Alps Four stage wins doesn’t sound so different to five. Paris or no Paris. Good move in my opinion. Needs just four more stage wins. On this year’s form, they’ll come.

They not showing the stage from the start today? Bit disappointing that.

Rode some unfamiliar big long descents a few weeks back following the garmin and it was surprisingly useful in seeing what was coming up to judge how much speed to carry (e.g. a shallow bend or a hairpin.)

That’s what I was thinking. over that crest could be a tight hairpin or a straight. If you’re on the aerobars, you’d want to know which!

@jamba, no we were in the van, so a quick ride up, than down through amazing decent “Spainish…something” loads of techy switchbacks and a bar finish.

Back to BV in the Van. As I went before the lifts were open we were doing Van assisted days out.

froome maintains the status quo waiting for tomorrow to extnd his lead

Porte has a go Nairo is this years Shleck

Yep late start on the coverage

How weird was Froomes reply to have you ridden the final climb today?

No, i’ve only seen it on paper, no wait, no, yeah, I’ve ridden it.

I guess he may not have ridden it specifically in preparation for this Tour, but he’s most likely ridden it as part of Romandie or the Dauphiné. Could account for the confused sounding reply.

@doctorgnashoidz – From the very first post in this thread:

Froome is the only rider who has experienced losing the yellow jersey at Finhaut-Emosson. It happened at the Critérium du Dauphiné two years ago. Everything seemed under control for Team Sky but Alberto Contador attacked them in the last two kilometers.

Maybe he wanted to forget that 😕

That or the drugs… Only joking! I’ve got the Froomeister ftw today, fallback Bardet. I know nothing though.

I think Froome could win it if he decides to.

Barring a crash or mechanical the GC appears to be his, so the interesting stuff now is the race for podium spots among the others.

Get the feeling Mollema may have a point to prove after Ventoux, could also see Bardet going for it.

Would be nice to see an attack from Quintana, if he’s been unwell and is now recovered – but I wouldn’t put any money on it.

Strong group going clear apparently…

Tanel Kangert (Astana), Stef Clement and Jarlinson Pantano (IAM), Kristjian Durasek (Lampre-Merida), Tony Gallopin (Lotto-Soudal), Rafal Majka and Peter Sagan (Tinkoff), Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R), Steve Morabito (FDJ), Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) and Brice Feillu (Fortuneo-Vital Concept).

Sagan on the hunt for intermediate sprint points, Majka for KOM points. Wonder how much time the peloton will give them.

over three minutes clear at the moment according to the guardian

Can’t get the live tacking to work yet