>The horizontal distance from the bottom bracket axle to the centre of the bottom of the headtube
As mentioned, that takes no account of seattube angle - although the effective TT (ie horizontal distance) length is measured something like 10" down from the saddle, so there'll be some error according to seat tube angle, that error is going to be something like half or a third of the error you'd get if you used the BB measurement.
In any case, it's only a rough guide.
I suspect road bike geometry tends to be more consistent wrt head/seat angle.
Seat angle *is* important, it'll have an effect on standing/seated weight distribution together with wheelbase, and a slack seat angle will put your feet relatively further forward from your saddle.