Tesco value jeans went up to £4 a few months back. I found that ^ article unconvincing. I don’t know how much a Chinese worker gets paid for the manufacture of a pair of jeans, but I doubt whether it is much more than about 50p for each jeans. So even if they were to double a Chinese workers wages, it would only add about an extra 50p on each pair of jeans. Whether you pay £3, £5, or £10, for a pair of jeans, it still represents very cheap clothing.
I do believe that the days of cheap goods from China (with their deflationary character) specially in more general manufacturing, are drawing to a close though, but that isn’t simply because of increases in manufacturing labour costs.
The global credit crunch/recession (which the Tories tell us was all the fault of Gordon Brown) has taught China the folly of over dependency on an economic strategy based on export led growth. China suffered significantly in the global credit crunch/recession, despite the fact that the Chinese economy was relatively sound.
As a consequence, China short term, started building up its internal infrastructures and capital projects, roads, railways, etc, as a stimulus to deal with the slow down in economic activity (as indeed Gordon Brown and other world leaders also did to an extent) But long term, they have recognised the importance of developing their own internal consumer markets.
Partly because they realise that western economies and their markets are not reliable, and their own internal market is potentially huge, but also partly, to head off urban/rural political pressures which their lopsided meteorical economic rise has created, and threat that poses to the Chinese political elite.
So cheap manufactured goods from China will eventually become a thing of the past. In the same way that cheap manufactured from Japan also eventually became a thing of the past.
Of course for a time at least countries such as India or Brazil might become a new source of cheap manufactured goods. But that will potentially also have a limited life. Besides by then, consumers in the West will very likely be competing with the new consumers in China. The days of Western purchasing power are also drawing to a close.
From only last week’s news :
China plans sweeping economic change
Quote :
“The latest Five-Year Plan — a throwback to central planning but a useful roadmap of party goals — calls for creating self-sustaining growth based on domestic consumption and reducing China’s reliance on exports and investment.
The leadership has said for years that China needs to alter a system Premier Wen Jiabao has declared “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable.” But they avoided major reforms until the global crisis wiped out millions of export-dependent factory jobs and drove home the danger of overreliance on trade.”