Picking up the leaf tomorrow, I can’t wait to say “Ooooh, look at me, everyone, I’m saving the little fluffy polar bears! I must be a great person. Did I mention I was saving the planet with my lovely, cuddly car? I mean, just look at it! No one would drive something this silly looking if it wasn’t saving ickle baby seals”

It’s nothing to do with the fact that the lease and fuel costs are less than the fuel and maintenance costs of my old car.. It’s all about the polar bears, honest..

CaptainFlashheart – Member

Hugely underwhelming to look at. See also the Mondeo comments above.

Hmmn.
Looks nice in the pics, but then they always do.

Looks a bit Aston/Mondeo-ish from the rear.
The front looks like a Maserati with Citroen lights and the middle bit’s from a Mazda.

I quite like the blue one.

fuel costs are less than the fuel and maintenance costs of my old car

Interested – what are the maintenance costs of the leaf? Presumably that electric motor doesn’t need anything. What are the battery requirements? Is it a lease like some of the others?

mainly what would happen if one caught fire after a smash. All those lithium batteries can’t be a good thing

Well they manage a tank full of explosive petrol liquid and vaopur reasonably well, so I’m sure they can protect solid batteries somehow or other.

Plus are they just shifting the pollution issue from the exhaust gasses when in use to the End-Of-Life recycling part?

Lithium is easily recycled I think – mining new stuff though isn’t so nice – depending on where it comes from I think.

Lithium is easily recycled I think – mining new stuff though isn’t so nice – depending on where it comes from I think.

2 points:

1 – we’re going to be adding battery storage to the grid fairly soon [internationally] to help with fluctuations in supply from renewables:

“Nissan expects that the “glide path” for a normal LEAF’s battery degradation will be down to 70%-80% capacity after five years, with up to 70% of their capacity remaining after 10 years of service as a car battery. This would make these batteries ideally suited for grid energy storage. [EV Casebook P27]”

2 – Other battery tech is coming:
“Here we present a rechargeable aluminium battery with high-rate capability that uses an aluminium metal anode and a three-dimensional graphitic-foam cathode. <snip> The cathode was found to enable fast anion diffusion and intercalation, affording charging times of around one minute with a current density of ~4,000 mA g–1 (equivalent to ~3,000 W kg–1), and to withstand more than 7,500 cycles without capacity decay.” [Development of An ultrafast rechargeable aluminium-ion battery//Nature 520, 324–328 (16 April 2015)]

It’s nothing to do with the fact that the lease and fuel costs are less than the fuel and maintenance costs of my old car.. It’s all about the polar bears, honest..

““The single most important factor in achieving a compelling and
affordable mass-market BEV is its relative cost [4]”
“[Realizing the electric-vehicle revolution. Nature Clim. Change 2, 328333 (2012).]

“By the end of 2014, more than 700,000 total plug-in vehicles had been sold worldwide (plug-in hybrids and pure battery electrics), up from about 400,000 at the end of 2013. As of 2015, dozens of models of electric cars and vans are available for purchase, mostly in Europe, the United States, Japan, and China. ”

“In a major 2013 analysis, “Global EV Outlook: Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020,” the International Energy Agency estimated that electric vehicles would achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles when battery costs hit $300 per kWh of storage capacity. The analysis projected that would happen by 2020. ”

“Yet a study last month in Nature Climate Change, “Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles” determined that “industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410 per kWh.” The study, by Björn Nykvist and Måns Nilsson, also looked at battery electric vehicle (BEV) leaders, like Nissan’s LEAF and Tesla’s model S. They found, “the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh.”

“So the best manufacturers have already reached the battery price needed for cost parity with conventional cars.
Last year, UBS, a leading Investment bank, found “the 3-year total cost of ownership (TCO) of a Tesla S model is similar to that of a comparable petrol combustion engine car such as an Audi A7,” in places like Germany.
“It may well be that $150 per kWh can be hit around 2020 without a major battery breakthrough but simply with continuing improvements in manufacturing, economies of scale, and general learning by industry.” [http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/13/3646004/electric-car-batteries-price/]

Other battery tech is coming

They seem to be getting better at recharging/discharging, but capacity doesn’t seem to be going up that quickly.

Most interesting thing I read about recently was flow batteries for large scale grid storage.

The Teslas look better in the flesh whereas the BMW ithingies are just awful, all angles and intakes for no apparent reason.

Clarkson seemed to like it though.

Most interesting thing I read about recently was flow batteries for large scale grid storage.

Didn’t I link you to that? 😉 I certainly like it 🙂

Lithium batteries are quite old tech, but the learning rate/capacity is still growing. I should be busy writing my thesis about this right now, but yeah there’s a little more life/growth left in Lithium batteries yet.

The main reason Tesla is doing so well is that it is so big and heavy that it is able to carry a HUGE number of batteries and therefore compete on a more level playing field against large, heavy fast petrol/diesel cars.

A much better way is to go lightweight, you can save .5-.9% fuel for each 1% weight reduction anyway – so an ultra-light weight electric vehicle will be much more efficient again. The issue is overcoming the market’s inertia for larger, more feature-packed cars [when you realise that a crossover sells for 50%-100% more than a hatchback but has the same development costs; and the markup for hatchbacks is 5%ish you understand the problem, I think], oh and almost all cars are made of pressed steel which is unbeliveably expensive to tool-for and really heavy. How to compete? DISRUPT 😀

Interestingly, Gordon Murray’s new ultra-lightweight production system [http://www.istreamtechnology.co.uk/1/iSTREAM.html] is able to level that playing field [production cost], but after a few years trying to get it used for small cars, they just won their first major contract for TVR of all things [http://www.topgear.com/uk/car-news/tvr-v8-sports-car-gordon-murray-istream-cosworth-2015-06-03] ?!

Anyway, it might well help drive acceptance of this new manufacturing tech, and allow more small manufacturers to create ultra-light vehicles that don’t look like suppositories.

As a bonkers alternative – flow cell car* anyone!?
[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqLpqR0SPnQ[/video]

*doesn’t actually exist 🙁

Had a ride in one of those Teslas at the end of last year as a Taxi from Monaco to Nice airport.
A fantastic piece of Engineering.. Driver reckoned the 0-60 time was close to 4 seconds, which puts it in supercar territory.
I’d have one tomorrow…

Just use the spent lithium in medication.
I take lithium pills daily.

Loved the i8 I got to drive at the weekend. Did look a bit ‘concept car’ but was a rocket.
Best hybrid for me lately has been the hybrid buses in Oxford. Most excellent.

I drove one last year, they are awesome and that’s from a mega petrol head.

The latest four wheel drive versions of the Model S (P85D) are 700hp, have a quoted range of 300 miles, spacious (can be specified with 7 seats), luxurious and cost little more than an equivalent AMG/M5 barge.

I also like the fact that Tesla gave up their IP a couple of years ago. Marketing perhaps, but the stated reason was to proliferate BEV tech and hence have a larger market in the future. Forward and unconventional thinking.

1 – we’re going to be adding battery storage to the grid fairly soon [internationally] to help with fluctuations in supply from renewables:

We (Northern Powergrid) have already done that – albeit as a trial (Google CLNR if you’re interested). It works technically and can be used for voltage support and for supporting demand or soaking up generation. However at present the batteries themselves are a tad expensive. That will probably change at some point.
Personally I prefer attaching batteries to people’s homes, which is probably slightly more expensive, but combined with domestic generation and an islanding ability looks pretty good in functionality.
How big a battery would you need? 10-20kWh and about 18kW – I think Tesla are making some units a bit like that now.

freeagent – Member
Had a ride in one of those Teslas at the end of last year as a Taxi from Monaco to Nice airport.
A fantastic piece of Engineering.. Driver reckoned the 0-60 time was close to 4 seconds, which puts it in supercar territory.
I’d have one tomorrow…

The latest high spec, high power one is 0-60 in just over 3sec according to a mate who works for Tesla.

You know, I’d seen all this coming, because I like my RC cars. In the last five years or so, lipo batteries and brushless motors have transformed the RC world. Electric is now faster, quicker accelerating and has more useful run times than nitro or gas had. Plus, they are cleaner, quieter and generally nicer to work on. It’s like a microcosm of the real world…

I like the way Tesla are going. Interesting times, providing a massive shake-up for the car world. I mean I like engines of all sorts from ancient locos right through to F1 but the stuff Tesla is doing is the way of the future.

Question for me is whether the infrastructure for pure-electric can be developed or whether we end up going via plug-in hybrids.

Plus are they just shifting the pollution issue from the exhaust gasses when in use to the End-Of-Life recycling part?

Possibly maybe but more likely not quite.

From what I’ve read, it seems the pollution is (nearly) all moved into production and the electricity generation; mass electricity generation is always more efficient than a carrying a petrol/diesel brick under your bonnet, and the battery production is not as bad as it could be as they’re recycled quite well.

Overall, the pollution moves, but becomes smaller, at the same time.

I have no references or links or anything

Got the leaf now, two days and it’s fab. Brought it back from the dealer in Bristol to Sussex, 160miles and no fuel costs.. Bargain.

Exterior, fairly dull… but that dash is truly hideous. Not sure a big touch screen is a great idea unless it autonatically locks when driving either.

I must be getting old but give me a set of proper dials any day.

A chap in my town here (Strathaven) has one, black, with the number plate:

“PH07 0NS”

Which is pretty ace really 🙂

And a great car besides!

I do like the Tesla an I like Mr Musk as well.

but this stuff is so 1900s , I have a vague feelin that the first cars were also battery but it got dropped in favour of internal combustion as you could get more range…

we really need to get induction loops in the road to make this stuff fly… you really can’t beat electric motors to drive stuff the downers the whole battery thang…

The tesla has a mental battery swap system btw.

(Doing 300kph on the TGV last week it’s eye opening this leccy stuff )

I’ll wait for Hydrogen thanks!

I’ve been waiting for it since reading about the hydrogen economy being just around the corner when I was at school. Fifty years ago!

I regularly see a white Tesla around the industrial estate where I work, nicely understated car. Belongs to the boss of a company that does bits and servicing for executive jets, so I guess he can afford it. Given a decent lottery win I’d have the 4×4 version in a flash, as most of my mileage is well under the nominal range.
I was reading a road test of the P85D, its acceleration is apparently terrifying!

This stuff is getting much closer to the mainstream. I’ve just ordered a Golf GTE, which is a half way house (plug in hybrid with a 150bhp petrol engine and 105bhp electric motor). I very much hope that by the time I choose my next car there will be a fully electric option with 200 mile range for a similar price and this will be my last new internal combustion engine.

I think it will take Tesla a few years to nail the car bit of their proposition. The styling is weak and interior build quality a bit below par. There aren’t any with 150k on the clock yet either, so we don’t know what kills them. I’m sure they’ll get there though, and the rest of the industry certainly needed/needs them as the disruptor.

I like to limit my own environmental impact where I can, but like someone else said, it’s the cost benefit that really swings it. I will save about £2k a year over my similar Merc deisel. The Golf GTE actually works out slightly cheaper at purchase than the GTD spec for spec.

This is weird

After this thread appears I’ve seen a Tesla and an i8, never seen either on the streets before!

Tesla are doijg some amazing things. The game changer is supposed to be coming in 2017 when Tesla launch their affordable model 3 which is supposed to be around $35,000 (about £30k) with a 200 mile range. Taking into account no fuel bills a very little maintenance costs it could shake things up a bit.

There is a really interesting (long) article here:

Elon Musk: The World’s Raddest Man

There’s a couple of Teslas and an i8 local to me, do love the Tesla, all i see with the i8 is the Porsche it’s trying to ‘poop’ out.

That’s amazing.

Here’s the i8 for comparison.

I think the Tesla is likely to be more reliable in the long term, just because there’s less to it.

Problem is a 200 mile range is rubbish for anyone outside of the main areas of the UK. For me range has to be around what you’d get out of a petrol (e.g. ~400 miles), especially as they aren’t a 5 minute job to refill like petrol.

That’s a pretty big generalisation – lot of people need to drive >200 miles, yes, but then they may well be able to find a supercharger and stop for an hour either at the end or along the way. Further, when there’s charging points at most businesses, then it’s nearly a non-issue. Tesla is working on the latter.

Problem is a 200 mile range is rubbish for anyone outside of the main areas of the UK.

That’s not a problem with the car, it’s a potential problem with your ownership of the car. A huge number of people never do trips that long in their second car.

The biggest issue currently is that the second car is usually a cheap runabout, and electric cars ain’t cheap. If a Leaf cost £8k they’d be flying off the shelves.

Further, when there’s charging points at most businesses, then it’s nearly a non-issue. Tesla is working on the latter.

Announcing all the recharge points is lovely and all, but this is what I just don’t see happening – are we expecting super charging points spread across the back end of nowhere to appear overnight? That kind of infrastructure takes time and money, and a lot of it.

TBH the plug in hybrid model seems like the far-more-likely-to-succeed route to make a car that works for long distance as well as around town; plug in for low cost round town or commute drives, smallish diesel block to do the mile munching.

If a Leaf cost £8k they’d be flying off the shelves.

That isn’t realistic as a Leaf is more Golf / Astra sized so you’re more likely looking at a minimum of £18k assuming Nissan can reduce their costs, and that’s for a car that does ~100 miles. And their lies the Leafs problem it isn’t sized like a 2nd car e.g. Hyundai i10, Fiat 500 VW Up/Polo, Ford Ka/Fiesta, and it is these kind of cars that routinely get bought for short journeys and are less than half the Leaf’s price.

Now an electric i10 or Up with a 100 mile range at a lowish price would be a goer, but the fact it hasn’t happened tells you something about where the tech is right now.

That isn’t realistic

I know, that’s been my point all along. That’s why I said it cost was the biggest issue.

the fact it hasn’t happened tells you something about where the tech is right now

No, it doesn’t, go back and read my posts.

It tells you two things:

1 – There’s a huge vested interest in maintaining the status quo of car manufacture [steel bodywork, far too heavy for EV’s]

2 – Marketing has stunted the development too many times to mention

“While customer reaction to the EV1 was positive, GM believed that electric cars occupied an unprofitable niche of the automobile market, and ended up crushing all their electric cars, regardless of protesting customers.”

Not convinced, gfs. Lots of manufacturers are putting money into making electric cars(which they wouldn’t if they thought there was no interest) but consumer takeup is slow, due to cost and/or range

They are expensive because batteries are expensive, and you need a lot. That’s going to be really hard to change.

OK, I’m probably not being very clear because I’m still trying to make sense of the data myself.

The TL;DR is that price is the most important factor, yes, but…

Two points back atcha:

The lead time for developing a car is around 6-10 years, so they’re [main auto manufacturers] lagging. Mass acceptance is driven slowly, so it’s taken other companies to come along and grab the market in that time, and kick start it.

Did you read the report* that says battery prices are much cheaper than expected? Within a couple of years there going to be full cost parity, and in some cases there already is (such as the case with Audi in Germany)

I guess what I am saying is the time is very near, and part of this delay was due to the cars manufacturers own choices, NOT because the tech wasn’t there.

To the future!

*Paywalled – here’s a summary:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/13/3646004/electric-car-batteries-price/

I guess what I am saying is the time is very near, and part of this delay was due to the cars manufacturers own choices, NOT because the tech wasn’t there.

Ok, fair enough. It sounded like you were playing the conspiracy card. Perhapas the falling cost of batteries is one reason the manufacturers are putting their money in?

On the bottom of that (interesting and encouraging) article though:

Last year, UBS, a leading Investment bank, found “the 3-year total cost of ownership (TCO) of a Tesla S model is similar to that of a comparable petrol combustion engine car such as an Audi A7,” in places like Germany

This is where Tesla have been a little sneaky, I think. High cost of batteries meant that they could only make an expensive car of significant range, so they decided to pitch the car at that price point making it a luxury car. It’s easy to make an electric car go fast if you stick enough batteries in it – more cells = more current after all. So all that performance has convinced the market that it’s a luxury car, which means they can pitch it against an Audi A7.

Plus that comparison compares to the petrol one with poor fuel economy – but then they’ll say ‘ah but it’s like for like, a high performance saloon’. Fair enough, but it hasn’t really done anything for the industry beyond helping its image a lot. Which is no bad thing of course. But a technological innovation it aint.

Compare the Tesla to another 4 door car designed for economy, a Mondeo ecoboost say, and it doesn’t look so good.

Only because we’re used to such heavy, fast cars….. as I said – marketing.

The power (and therefore weight), features and size expected by the public (manipulated over the years by the advertising) make the Tesla Roadster the only way for the BEV to break-through into the public conciseness.

Check this out:

http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Eric_Cahill/publication/265130447_Low-Mass_Urban_Microcars_for_the_Emerging_Vehicle_Markets_of_Megacities/links/54002d010cf2194bc29aade5.pdf?disableCoverPage=true

The speeds, weight and size needed for an Urban car are *tiny*. The smallest/lightest thing you can buy at the moment is pretty-much an Up!, or, a Twizy.

The Twizy has great difficulty selling due mainly to comparisons with cars 1,000 Kg heavier, and an infrastructure dominated by the classic [heavy, steel, internal combustion] car.

This was a result of the continuation of the value/styling/aspiration concept that has been exported from the US, and all dates back to the arms/features/power race that comes hand in hand with the life-cycle of the modern automobile.

If such cars had been developed for, uhh, the last 30+ years [like the EV1, above] we’d be in a greatly better place. So, leaving oil money out of it, YES, there has been a kind of conspiracy – by the car manufacturers – to flog us a super-engineered and yet generally inappropriate product.

You’ll note the Japanese, less in the thrall of the US marketing lifestyle are into small/kei cars. They have a classless appeal, and sell in big numbers there.

Here’s some info from London RE mean speeds:

http://democracy.cityoflondon.gov.uk/documents/s22224/

TL;DR – 22 MPH Average.

Conclusion – the Ultra-light vehicle, especially the battery one is perfect for a great number of users and should be selling in huge numbers….but it isn’t.

We’re in a corner, though the cracks are just appearing….