Biggest prediction: NOBODY will be satisfied with the result.
Not sure about that, but nobody will be satisfied with post-vote plan, if it’s out – there will be a 4-10-year exit plan to try to mitigate the pain, DC or Boris will want trade deals in place before we leave – we HAVE to have trade deals in place before we leave or we’ll effectively be embargoed – the EU will want free movement to agree to a deal which goes against a lot of the Leave lot want, they’ll want us out by August and claim we’re dragging our feet. The IN people won’t be happy at the loss and very unhappy when Black Friday / Mon happens (depending on the exit polls and early results) it will effectively prove the IN fears right.
If it’s IN the Leave camp will be screaming about rigging and demanding another vote in a years time or something stupid like scheduled in/out vote every 4 years, the Government will have to be more openly Pro-EU, not just now – they’ll have to stop blaming ‘Brussels’ whenever something goes wrong, which will be hard work with the Murdock press slamming Europe whenever they can.
There’s almost a 3rd option. Someone this morning made an interesting point – the vote isn’t binding, the Government doesn’t have to do follow it, a very close vote to leave might not mean we leave – Dave could spin a line about listening to voters and restructuring a deal with the EU and as that was what Boris was calling for when he started it won’t be hard to pull him into line. UKIP will feel cheated, but Tory high command may decide that 3 years is long enough to kill them before the next election.
