i expect a few on here know more about it than I do but seeing as no one else has replied yet:
Yes you will be able to see that you are in the reservoir by drill cuttings returned in the mud a surface, it will have a bit of a delay as the cuttings have to make it all the way up the hole to surface.
Seismic and any nearby wells mean they have a fair idea where the reservoir(s) are going to be before they drill generally.
Not so much for cheap onshore wells but for the high end deepwater stuff logging While Drilling (LWD) is so advanced these days that they can get real time measurements of pretty much everything, porosity, permeability, resistivity, saturation etc.
Having said all that I have been offshore on rigs when all the indications were a good well but when the well went on test nothing happened, so I guess its not foolproof. And just because there is some hydrocarbon there, doesn’t mean it will flow to surface, and definitely doesn’t mean it will be economic to produce.