I tend to believe the analysis of experts in the field of HIV and epidemiology.
That is my whole problem with your argument, it is based on belief, rather than hard evidence.
As a statement defending the catholic church, that is brilliant
But, putting that aside, i don't understand how this statement can be false:
'A reduction in condom use is likely to correlate to an increase in sexual transmissions'
Less condom use = more chance of fluid transfer = more chance of disease transmission
Catholic Church scaring people off condoms = % of people who might have otherwise used them now don't.
If a % of those people are infected, then there is a % chance that they will infect their partners.
Additionally...less condom use = greater chance of pregnancy = chance of more childbirths = increases difficulty to escape from poverty
The actual figures will be borderline impossible to ascertain, but that doesnt change the immoral nature of attempting to remove something (condoms) that could potentially massively help.
If the Catholic church was not morally bankrupt, they would be actively endorsing and encouraging condom use as it would reduce infections and unwanted pregnancies, allowing people a better way of life.
But they aren't, they are actively dicouraging it - and i can't really fathom way. There is NO good reason to do so. You can promote good ethics at the same time as sexual awareness - they go hand in hand.