FTP is really for sub-hour efforts. It’s a marker of fitness and predicts endurance to an extent.
I’ve done the past three rides and am hoping for a faster time than last year (4:06:36). It is a fast course – no stopping necessary, so that will add one mph to almost any average you have at the moment. Drafting is of course free speed (unless you are on the front). Last year my average power was 240 Watts (85% of my FTP) (I’m 68 kg plus 8 kg of bike and drinks). So about 3.2 Watts/kg including bike.
For sub five hours, I think you will need to average about 2.5-2.8 Watts/kg (including bike) or 240-270 Watts. Your FTP will see you round fine in that time. Just watch out for other riders!
Be sure to eat a lot to avoid fatigue
My diet is large risotto night before (can’t eat a lot of pasta)
three weetabix at 5AM
gel on the line at 6AM
eat every 30-40 minutes rotating solid food (bar or banana) and gels
caffeine gel on the climb at Norwood to the finish
bloks or jelly babies ad libitem as something to chew
I drink two 750 ml bottles of NUUN electrolyte drinks (it’s cooler at 6AM, so don’t need to stop to refill).
Good luck. Last year was very fast and most of our club went under 5 hours. If the weather is the same this year you can expect the same fast times.
And this year I’m doing the ride in memory of my sister and mother and have set a tougher goal
https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/Daren-Austin1