A price worth paying?

Or should we send the new Libyan government an invoice?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/sep/25/libya-conflict-uk-defence-bill

Personally, it seems that given our reluctance to carry out similar activities against Syria (presumably due to a lack of oil and a decent air defence system on their part) we really ought to have thought more carefully before getting involved so extensively as there’s clearly no underlying ‘moral right’ being supported here, just good old military industrial complex influence.

Does that figure take into account future oil related profits

we’ll quadruple every penny spent on future oil sales.

Petrol prices already rose by 3p minimum as a result of the conflict, so the government probably already have the funds

But surely we were already buying oil from Libya?

we’ll quadruple every penny spent on future oil sales.

What’s this we business, I don’t expect to see any profits from this war or subsequent oil deals in my bank account.

Those hotels in Italy for the RAF to stay in are not cheap you know.

I don’t expect to see any profits from this war or subsequent oil deals in my bank account.

They benefit the country as a whole though in term so of tax revenue etc.

The people taking over Libya, are they democratic? Or are they just “not gaddafi”

seems we’re supporting people who have no better credentials for running a country than he did, how do we know they’re going to be better?

and how come we’re not doing this in Syria as well?

don’t understand

But surely we were already buying oil from Libya?

Not at the price we wanted to pay for it though, hence the need for regime change. Best to have a nice docile Western friendly puppet state for to supply cheap oil, innit?

And people wonder why Ahmedinnerjacket is getting all nuked up….

Can’t we invade Japan instead? Have you seen the price of Shimano stuff???? 😯

Is there any evidence that the new Libyan government is likely to contribute to the UK governments revenue via taxation on oil revenue earned by UK companies any more than the previous one?

or is ‘everyone’ just hoping that this will be the case?

It’ll be the same as when we went into Iraq. I know an experienced economist who regarded the invasion of Iraq as primarily an economic assault on Russia and France by the US and Britain. Russian and French oil companies were the Primary partners of the Sadaam regime. With him gone, those contracts were null and void. Allowing new, very favourable contracts to be established with British and US companies instead. The loss of revenue to French and Russian companies was absolutely enormous!

Same applies here. £1.75 billion is loose change in comparison to the contracts that I’m sure are presently being stitched up negotiated with those powers who were helpful over the last year

and how come we’re not doing this in Syria as well?

Or Saudia Arabia, where the lovely King has just announced that women might get the right to vote. Isn’t that nice of him?

In fact, the West bangs on about Iran being naughty, but conveniently ignore the truth that Saudi is far, far worse in terms of Human Rights abuses…

Oh look how cosy and friendly:

Democracy. Hell yeah.

MSP – Member

we’ll quadruple every penny spent on future oil sales.

What’s this we business, I don’t expect to see any profits from this war or subsequent oil deals in my bank account.

Unfortunately (for some) we, being Britain went to war.

You may yet see a reduction in petrol prices once its business as usual.

It’ll be the same as when we went into Iraq. I know an experienced economist who regarded the invasion of Iraq as primarily an economic assault on Russia and France by the US and Britain. Russian and French oil companies were the Primary partners of the Sadaam regime. With him gone, those contracts were null and void. Allowing new, very favourable contracts to be established with British and US companies instead. The loss of revenue to French and Russian companies was absolutely enormous!

interesting theory, but IIRC, Russia has a massive oil/gas reserve of its own?
I can see mileage in it though, may explain the World Cup voting fiasco too!

As long as they don’t let them do anything like get behind the wheel of a car Fred, things will be ok 😉

elfin, it’s weird, there’s a lot of support on sites like this about Palestine and Isreal, but here’s the thing, In lots of Arab countries, people like me and AdamW (out gays) we’d be strung up/beheaded (choose violent death of choice), but in Isreal, we’d be fine like any other 1st world country.

world’s a funny place.

big underground lesbian movement in Saudi, was in contact for a while with a girl (advice, some-one to help, listen to etc etc) she’s gone quiet for a while now 🙁

[Not at the price we wanted to pay for it though, hence the need for regime change. Best to have a nice docile Western friendly puppet state for to supply cheap oil, innit?]

like we (us and America) did with iraq, Iran etc?

seems we’re supporting people who have no better credentials for running a country than he did, how do we know they’re going to be better?

A point I’ve seen frequently made, but never satisfactorily answered.

Emsz; I don’t in any way condone what goes on in places like Iran, Syria, Yemen etc, those nations have a long, long way to go to change their cultures and societies to fairer, more egalitarian ones. And yes, Israel is in many ways far more progressive.

But it’s incredibly hypocritical of Britain to condemn one nation yet enjoy strong trade and diplomatic links with others which are just as bad, if not worse.

democracy in the middle east & north africa, god help us. A Majority of Egyptians want to see the destruction of Israel.

You may yet see a reduction in petrol prices once its business as usual.

If there is one, it won’t last very long. As Yazz said…..

Elfin is right…

…we’ve long crowed about human rights and democracy, yet we’re happy to export oppression by either selling arms or latterly facilitating rendition and allowing less enlightened countries to torture our suspects on our behalf. We can easily condemn Libya but we’ll happily trade with Saudia Arabia or turn a blind eye to the appalling exploitation of Bangladeshi construction workers in Dubai.

Hoping for a reduction of petrol prices is like chasing a rainbow. It won’t happen.

However, politicians would rather nick someone else’s oil than invest in a subsidized and cheap public transport network.

reducing petrol price is a surefire vote winner, you will see it happen (once supply is re-established)

seems we’re supporting people who have no better credentials for running a country than he did, how do we know they’re going to be better?

A point I’ve seen frequently made, but never satisfactorily answered.

Think about it in these terms:
them”If you help us overthrow regime we give you special deal”
us ”ok, but we have a few conditions, such as exclusivity rights and policital figure selection”
them ”ok”
us ” if you go back on your word things get nasty again”
them ”yes sir, thank you sir”

and how come we’re not doing this in Syria as well?

There was a high level of support from the Arab league in the case of outing Gadaffi.

Syria also has the support of Iran & Hezbolla. If you want to deal with Syria you have to first deal with Iran.

Syria is also Isreal’s principle military threat. To attack Syria would almost certainly trigger an attack on Israel.

PJM1974 – Member
Elfin is right…
…we’ve long crowed about human rights and democracy, yet we’re happy to export oppression by either selling arms or latterly facilitating rendition and allowing less enlightened countries to torture our suspects on our behalf…

Well, we’re hardly a democratic country are we?

You’re a subject, not a citizen.
There’s a monarch and all legislation has to pass through an unelected upper house.

Not really that much different than Saudi Arabia except our government is nicer.

people like me and AdamW (out gays) we’d be strung up/beheaded

Jeeze, the more I think about that, the more ****ed up it sounds. We take for granted the fact that we can be who we are in this country, without fear of persecution, knowing our rights are protected in Law. It’s utterly digusting that at this stage in human history that some cultures can be so messed up and phobic.

But the fact that our nation continues to deal with countries that execute people just for being what they are, simply condones such barbarism. All in the name of Capitalism.

‘I’ll choose to ignore what’s happening over there as long as I’ve got my lovely wealth and comfort’.

Makes me sick.

emsz – Member

The people taking over Libya, are they democratic? Or are they just “not gaddafi”

A rag bag coalition of all sorts including al quaeda backed elements and fundamentalist muslims.

No chance at all of any decent form of government coming from this. Living conditions in Libya will get worse, democracy will be a long way off, repression will rise, mortality rates will rise, poverty will rise.

See Iraq for an idea of what will happen. Another country destroyed

‘International politics and diplomacy is complicated’ shocker!

In other news, sometimes you have to engage with people whose views you don’t particularly like in order to influence them.

Don’t forget it’s not about the price at the pumps, there’s the barrel price and the duty levied on top.

Demand for fuel is very inelastic and as such the OPEC nations gear supply to meet the demand and very little more. As soon as the barrel price falls below $80 then production will be reduced, thus pushing the price up once more. Right now we’re at a point where production is scarcely meeting increasing demand, so the price will only climb in the long run.

As for fuel duties, the 1p reduction in the last budget was largely symbolic and quickly became moot as oil prices continued to climb. A long term strategy of governments is to mitigate spikes in oil prices with fuel duty to avoid price shocks in the future.

The only way to reduce oil prices would be to reduce demand, which cannot and will not happen in anything but the very long term and conversely the government sees taxation as the key to achieving this.

In other news, sometimes you have to engage with people whose views you don’t particularly like in order to influence them.

More like, it’s more convenient to ignore the actions and views of others which you find utterly abhorrent, in order to make money.

Have you any evidence whatsoever to back that up TJ? Thats utter twoddle.

The whole arab spring, far from involving serious islamic nutters, is actually a complete rejection of the fundamentalists mental terrorist values. Al Queada wants democracy like it wants Italian game-shows

And there is also absolutely no comparison with Iraq at all! Its an popular uprising not an invasion. There are no occupying forces on the ground. Totally different animal

Its accountancy tricks

The asset costs of the planes that we’ve already bought, do we set them against the campaign, or not, since we’ve already paid for them, and if they weren’t being used it would cost the same

increased wear and tear being attributed to the campaign, whereas the pilots would still need to fly to make up their training hours, so much of that wear and tear would be offset against another budget

weapons, they don’t have an infinite shelf life, so have to be rotated, and the cost of overhauling the electronics, replacing the warhead and disposing of the time expired explosives would be substantial, so do you offset that against the cost of using and replacing?

wages, you’re paying your pilot and ground crews anyway, you’re paying for the ships and the sailors wages.

the “increased” cost of operations is, in reality, a fraction of the overall cost, but thats a cost that you’re going to incur regardless…

More like, it’s more convenient to ignore the actions and views of others which you find utterly abhorrent, in order to make money.

You could always engage with those you elected to make a difference. Left / Right – there are no differences (see behaviour of special envoys for reference).

The complexities of international relationships are many and varied – a simple view does it no justice.

binners – Member

Have you any evidence whatsoever to back that up TJ? Thats utter twoddle.

I’ll find some
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html

And there is also absolutely no comparison with Iraq at all! Its an popular uprising not an invasion. There are no occupying forces on the ground. Totally different animal

Its not a pupular uprising at all. Its a manufgactured civil war. a popular uprising would have had it over in days without the need for sustained bombing campaigns by the weest and still teh whole country is not under control of the rebels or anything like.

a popular uprising would have had it over in days without the need for sustained bombing campaigns

Correct me if I’m wrong but Gadaffi’s regime were seriously tooled up. Tanks, Helicopters and some serious artillery. The opposition had a few looted guns. How on earth could that have conceivably been over in days?

25 libyans fighting in Iraq is sign of Al Queada involvement in the Libyan opposition. How exactly?

Its not a pupular uprising at all. Its a manufgactured civil war

I’m going to have to ask for a citation for that please.

[Edit] Gadaffi’s military has been hamstrung by years of sanctions and it’s been in his interests to keep the military relatively weakened to prevent another coup. The surprise for me was how quickly the rebels managed to obtain much of Gadaffi’s materiel and use it effectively. Being armed to the teeth and having the appropriate training are two different things entirely.

Come off it guys – look to other popular uprisings were the government had plenty of guns and bombs. Romania, for example. In a popular uprising the military stay in their barracks or change sides

The opposition to gadaffi was by no means universal, the rebels do not have the support of large amounts of the population. the rebels are not a unified force – infact one section killed the leader of another section.

You will see as the civil war we have created continues to rumble on for years

I wasn’t being contrary for the sake of it TJ, I just asked for a citation to back that statement up.

I’m not looking for an argument, merely some background reading. The factors involved in any conflict are incredibly complex, people don’t just take up arms for the sheer heck of it. Whilst I agree that it’s in the west’s interests that Gadaffi was toppled, the swiftness of the rebellion took me by surprise.

I was however being contrary for the sake of it 😛