This could get very unpleasant.

Mmmm – I’ve been thinking the same!

Don’t worry the Yanks’ll fix it, them or their mates – the Israelis.

They’re more of a threat than Iraq ever was. A bunch of Islamic fundamentalists with nuclear weapons, not **** good. 😐

Nuclear weapons, an effective submarine fleet equipped with some very quiet subs, nice long-range anti-ship missiles, a fairly useful air force and a fanatical, well-trained army.

Not a push over in anyone’s books.

They’re more of a threat than Iraq ever was. A bunch of Christian fundamentalists with nuclear weapons, not **** good

Yeah I agree, bleeding yank religious nutters.

However, not openly an aggressive country according to recent history. A lot of rhetoric but that’s all.

The original revolution was as much about middle class Iranians getting fed up with the Shah and his family as it was about religon. Khomeni et al were not necessarily what the majority wanted then – or now. It’s as much about nationalism (see Iran / Iraq war) as it is about religon.

What we’re seeing at the moment is a lot of ordinary people getting very fed up with the current regime. The very fact that there are mass protests with relatively little violence is an encouraging sign, if you ask me. Ahmenijad and the rest are not reaching for the bovver boys first and asking questions later.

Much like the Israelis, the Iranians pretty much just want to be left alone. Their foreign policy isn’t hugely expansionist. They are opportunistic – see Basra – when it suits a defensive purpose.

As Sooty says, not a nice bunch of chaps to mess with, especially on the water. Their small boat swarming tactics are reckoned to be very effective against, say, a well-equipped US battlegroup.

Their small boat swarming tactics are reckoned to be very effective against, say, a well-equipped US battlegroup.

not that bad against a highly trained group of UK novices either 🙂

The Iranians are expert at depriving the Royal Navy of their iPods too.

“Waaa, they took me iPod.”

Ever since the 1979 revolution, there have been two strands in Iran, the Islamic and the democratic. Increasingly, the Islamic strand has been less about religion than about legitimising the ruling clique. But until now, it was also possible for people to cling to the belief that the Islamic revolution was about ridding Iran of the autocracy of the Shah’s time. They could believe that the government was a genuine, albeit imperfect, expression of the people’s will. The regime’s conduct in these elections is a reflection of its weakness. Iran’s rulers could not rely on popular support so instead have had to turn to naked force, which may work in the short term but seriously undermines their legitimacy.

So the candidates who lost can either demand resistance, passive or otherwise, bearing in mind that many Iranians are deeply fearful of the uncertainty and violence that could flow from a mass uprising. Or they have to accept an illegitimate authoritarian government, and one that is heading more and more in the direction of totalitarianism. And that is a dangerous prospect, for the Iranians and the region

I read with some interest recently that Iran’s key foreign policy concern is instability in Pakistan. They want a nuclear weapon to deter the Pakistanis. Opposition to Israel, while a key political dog-whistle for the hardliners is not something they do with any seriousness. They support some unpleasant proxies, and play pally with the Syrians, but they don’t have a border with Israel, have no territorial disputes and have never actually risked their own manpower fighting the Israelis, unlike many Arab countries. Rather, they posture against Israel as a way of making themselves look more islamic than the more pragmatic and influential Arab governments, particularly Egypt.

I might show my boss this thread, see what he thinks….
He’s Iranian

durka durka

muhammed jihad?

Should i visit before or after they tear the place apart then?

the GF old man is iranian.

the analysis given by nickc is more-or-less spot on.

Iran’s rulers could not rely on popular support….

Ahmadinejad won the election.

No previous Iranian elections results have been this seriously challenged. Whilst I’m prepared to accept without any proof, that the results might have been “tweaked”, I am not prepared to accept, without substantial proof, that the fraud was so massive that it gave the loser 2 votes for every 1 vote the winner received.

Fraud on that sort of scale would provide the opposition some real evidence to present to the world. Up until the present, all they have offered is unspecified “irregularities” in the election. At one stage the opposition was actually suggesting that the turnout had been low and not the 85% officially claimed, despite all the reports from western journalist on the day which suggested the opposite – that turnout was exceptionally high. The opposition now appears to have dropped these claims.

If the result had been closer I would have been more suspicious. Furthermore fraudulent elections results take longer (a bit like creative accounting) to provide then honest ones, often taking several days if not weeks. The Iranian vote counting and results came through pretty damn quick.

The very low key reaction from the US is also interesting. If their intelligence was telling them that there had been widespread and massive fraud, then I would expect them to be exploiting the situation much more to their advantage.

It is also interesting to note that one of the common criticism of Ahmadinejad is that he has followed ‘populist policies’. Now ‘populist policies’ is a fancy term the western media uses to explain why some leaders in third world countries win elections. IE policies which benefit the people and are therefore popular. In the case of Ahmadinejad he has put more than 22 million Iranians poor rural Iranians into government healthcare schemes, he has increased pay and pensions for government employees, he has given shares in nationalised industries to the poor (iirc) he has even provided free potatoes to the poor in a country where malnutrition is a real problem. Is the opposition now claiming that Ahmadinejad never did carry out ‘popular policies’ after all, and in fact no one supports him ? They really can’t have it both ways.

It also shouldn’t be forgotten, that many Iranians see the son of a blacksmith as one of them. Ever since the revolution which overthrew the Shah, the Iranians have tended to choose their leaders from the less well-educated and more humble, much to the disgust of the wealthy Tehran elite. Indeed I distinctly recall seeing the Shah being interviewed on TV once and how he expressed his disgust at the thought of someone as uneducated as Ayatollah Khomeini ruling Iran. “The man doesn’t even know if there is any protein in a grain of rice”, he told the interviewer. That sentence and the look of disgust in the Shah’s face is something which I will never forget. And from what I’ve seen recently on my TV screen, still the Tehran elite appear to be disgusted by the thought of the uneducated rural poor, being in position of power.

Today’s Times reports (I do not know on the basis of what) that the results of some votes were declared before the ballot boxes were opened, and that the results in other areas changed as many as three times before settling down on a rousing victory.

I’m not sure that I follow the logic that a massive endorsement of the incumbent indicates an absence of fraud. If you’re making up the results then you can have any number you want, and implausibly large support never troubles serial vote-riggers like Mugabe and his ilk.

Don’t want to demonise either Ahmadinejad or indeed Khameini, but I don’t agree that there’s no evidence of fraud, and don’t follow your rationalisation from the result that there can’t have been.

Oh, and “populist” has a gloss on your definition. It means “popular with people who haven’t a clue”, like blaming all Britain’s economic ills on immigrants, or using massive food subsidies to buy popularity even though your budget deficit is looking pretty scary even by British standards. 😉

There were reports on Al-Jeezera, of some fairly odd goings on. the results declared much much earlier than normal, and weren’t done by region as was normally the case.

You’ve completely missed the point I was making BigDummy. Still, It might be my fault for not explaining it properly. I’ll try again.

My second sentence : “No previous Iranian elections results have been this seriously challenged.” That’s the point. Elections in Zimbabwe are always challenged. Why should this Iranian election have been any different ? And if they did decide to ‘tweak’ this one, then why would they have gone silly and given Ahmadinejad such a massive lead ? Obviously completely unnecessary. And in Zimbabwe elections are so blatantly rigged, that the opposition claims a lot more than unspecified “irregularities”.

The term “populist” as used by the media, is not used in the way you suggest. I have never heard the media refer to the BNP’s policies as “populist”. The term is used by the media to describe leaders who are elected in third world countries, specially Latin America, despite the fact that they don’t have the support of the United States. It refers to the fact that their policies are very popular with their electorate. It is used in a negative way to dismiss the popular support which they enjoy. I was simply pointing out that if Ahmadinejad was indeed a “populist” leader (as the media says), then you would expect him to win elections. As I said, you can’t claim that he is a “populist”, but yet has no popular support.

It also shouldn’t be forgotten, that many Iranians see the son of a blacksmith as one of them

He’s got a lot of support, this is true, it is also the case that local and regional candidates usually do a LOT better than in this election, and the results seem to suggest that Ahmadinejad did just as well in the cities (not just Tehran) as he did in the parts of the country that support him, which also isn’t normal

Maybe nothing, maybe that the results are real, but there needs to be transparency, which there isn’t at the moment

The term “populist” as used by the media, is not used in the way you suggest. I have never heard the media refer to the BNP’s policies as “populist”.

A quick google on BNP and Populist shows the Indy, Socialist Worker and Guardian, BBC and Times et al. using articles with that language. Though admitedly this is fairly petty nit-picking on my part 🙂

just spoke to the (alomst) father-in-law. he’d just spoken to his brother who has a chemists in Tehran.

one of those baton wielding pillion passegners riding the motorbikes was bought to his store because he got hit. (by whom i don’t know but i assume the Mousavi supporters). he didn’t speak farsi and it was thought lebanese.

F-in-L said it is common for the gov. to hire supporters from amongst the immigrant/refugee population. ahmed-sickinderhed is popular amongst these groups (lebanese, palestinian) due to his anti-jew ramblings.

although i do find myself drawn to hisw dislike of the Israeli state. not more than my distaste for other lands based on a fairytale such as the vatican or saudi arabia.

WTF???—–>enft:”They’re more of a threat than Iraq ever was. A bunch of Islamic fundamentalists with nuclear weapons, not **** good..”

HA! Now that you have read some informed discussion on this thread, have you learned anything about what’s actually going on in Iran?
Are you now enlightened enough to do some research and stop believing about what you have read in the sun/daily record/other mainstream filth pedalling medium-that exists to keep failed journalists in a job? No, didn’t think so.

I bet you think strippers fancy you.

I lived in Tehran for 7 years, and was never aquainted with even one so-called “fundamentalist” – which by the way, is a rather big word for a little boy to be using so frivolously.

Switch over to 4od, catch up on Big Brother, and don’t worry your precious head about the subjects your vapid brain can’t comprehend.

it is common for the gov. to hire supporters from amongst the immigrant/refugee population.

I have to admit I wasn’t aware Ahmadinejad was so unpopular that he has to ‘hire’ supporters. I find that quite shocking.

And I find it all the more shocking to learn that presumably there aren’t enough Iranians prepared to be hired to support him, that he has to rely on foreigners.

In fact if it didn’t come from a reliable source, ie, some bloke on the internet girlfriend’s father’s brother, I would simply dismiss it all as anti-Ahmadinejad propaganda.

But I can’t imagine why someone such as a middle-class professional pharmacist living in Tehran, should be anything other than politically neutral.

My second sentence : “No previous Iranian elections results have been this seriously challenged.” That’s the point. Elections in Zimbabwe are always challenged. Why should this Iranian election have been any different ? And if they did decide to ‘tweak’ this one, then why would they have gone silly and given Ahmadinejad such a massive lead ? Obviously completely unnecessary. And in Zimbabwe elections are so blatantly rigged, that the opposition claims a lot more than unspecified “irregularities”.

Wading into Zimbabwean politics is pretty risk-free, unless Zimbabwe has some oil and nukes that nobody has mentioned before.

Excellent reporting in todays Incontinent:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-day-of-destiny-1706010.html

SaboteurCherie – enfht (btw get the name right) has the right to an opinion, it may be wrong (which I also think it is) but to start insulting them with such venom is exactly (on a larger scale) how wars and trouble start and with respect, you lower yourself to a level beneath you.
You’re also assuming that they’re male too.
Constructive comment is the way here not insults.

I share Cherie’s frustration to some extent. Iran is one of those few things that if you know more you get less scared. But that was a blinder of a hissy-fit. 🙂

We shall see Gus. In many respects I hope you’re right. Iran’s way of doing things seems to work for them. “Bringing democracy” to them would clearly be a terrible error as they have one, just with its own oddnesses. Equally, we have seen quite a large appetite for a different society, from quite a substantial consitutuency (assuming for the moment that 30% of an 85% turnout is broadly correct). It is to be hoped that the Iranian government can get itself comfortable with that, and can accommodate it to some extent rather than taking a nasty lurch into thuggishness and repression.

As ever, Ahmadinejad is not fundamentally a problem, and the US in particular could make a lot more progress with them if they weren’t so dogmatic.

Got to see it from Iranians perspective. The US Backed Iraq/Sadam during the Iran/Iraq long and very very bloody war. Then the US decides to crush Iraq after Iraq decided it wanted one of its neighbours oil etc. The US of course has never invaded or have any bases all round the world of course…

So, would it be fair to see the US as an enemy to Iran? Yes. Is Iran really really the axis of evil?

Iran was part of the axis of evil when the US decided it was. Before that, Iranian diplomats were the key US contact with the NA in Afghanistan and Iran was sympathetic to US policy across the border.

Apparently, during the Iran-Iraq war, the israelis sold arms to Iran as they continued to be much more worried abbout Iraq winning. Israeli agents set up the arms for hostages deal at the bottom of Iran-Contra.

LOL @ SaboteurCherie…. way to go!!

sorry gus, was late lastnight. yeah, a 3rd hand source (me) but with close ties to ‘proper’ iranians.

it is said of those ‘supporters’ that many are not Iranian citizens and are unable to vote. they partly see themselves as martyrs having lost their homeland. the anti-israel stance from the gov. is like a little torch for them.

amongst the educated population Ahmed-sickinderhed is not popular. as said above the educated classes are leaving in their droves. several of the GF’s cousins have recently moved to Vancouver – all dentists, doctors or architechs.

it was said that ahmed— won because he got those in poorer rural areas to vote by making unrealistic pledges. pledges that didn’t add up and the less-educated were didn’t realise that the policies/monies/promises didn’t add up.

the GF has been to iran last year. her dad goes two or three times a year.

Universal law of cultural dissent – po-faced male elites are always threatened by disco music.

HAHA! Brilliant noteeth. 😀

Just to keep the focus on real issues – don’t forget that the current Iranian regime is keeping some of the world’s cracking-est totty covered up in bed-sheets.

man, some of the GF female cousins are be-u-ti-ful.
no-one really wants to wear the head scarf. whilst the GF was there she had some random official come up to her, screaming in her face. she didn’t realise what was going on until her cousin came forward and pulled her scarf forward an inch or so.

oh, and girls are not allowed to ride bikes. her 18 yr old cousin (wow!!!) came over and we spent the trying to teach her to ride. gave up in the end.

Regulation accurate head scarf wearing or else official face screaming, no girls to ride bikes !!! Mmmmm – this I find harder to figure.

SaboteurCherie – over to you.

Dr J, I think you missed you calling as a Diplomat!

I don’t profess to know a huge amount about Iran, but it seems to me that there are now the conflicting desires of both the relatively wealthy middle class in Tehran and the majority poor elsewhere in the country.

We’re only seeing what our media pumps out to us which is of course going to focus on the middle class wanting reform. My opinion based on what I have read here, seen in the media and picked up over the years from other sources suggests that even if the election were rigged, Ahmedinejad still probably did quite well.

Ultimately though, the fact that the protests are being tolerated even for a minute is a good thing in my opinion. Change is clearly coming to Iran, but I just hope that the hand of the CIA isn’t too heavily involved with it (again).

Isn’t it all a bit of a joke anyway…the Guardian Council can deny a strong candidate from running for election anyway and hence kind of choose their preferred candidate can’t they?

As with alpin, my gf is Iranian. Born in Tehran but moved here 20 odd years ago after the revolution. Their family history has ties to the Shah and the oil industry and her grandma and some aunts etc. still live in Iran. The rest of the family are spread out all over the world including London, Germany, USA etc.

I’ll not clutter the thread with any more 3rd hand views from actual Iranians that aren’t politically neutral…but will instead agree with Alpin and Dr J, there are some beautiful looking Persian women around 🙂