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Global warming again...........

  • 230 posts & 31 voices | Started 7 months ago by kimbers | Latest reply from molgrips

Tags:

  • bitches
  • Church of IPCC
  • Come back when you have some evidence
  • Greenwashing
  • if clarckson says so it must be true
  • IPCC report written by trainee
  • Its all just a con
  • LeftyCackWorld
  • No proof
  • Religions Freaks
Pages: « Previous1…567Next »
  1. gwaelod - Member

    And I agree with you on that, however what about the little pixels at the peaks every 100,000 years. What happened then? Why did the temperatures decrease as dramatically as they increased? Those peaks occur over (very rough estimation) somewhere between 2000-5000 years. 200 years seems like a small period to measure ourselves agains

    LHS - have you not heard of Milankovich Forcing...

    A bloke told me once, if someone can't explain to you why we have different seasons on this planet then they have nothing to say worth listening to as regards climate research.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  2. Zulu-Eleven - Member

    With the economy you've got a few people trying to figure out something that's practically un-knowable, and a great many people trying to f*ck it over to make cash in the shorter term. When you can make a huge profit from causing problems, and an even bigger one from gambling recklessly, is it any surprise that it went tits up?

    Maybe not quite so different after all eh?

    Posted 7 months ago #
  3. molgrips - Member

    But Mol, your edit has ruined your argument. By saying:

    [quoted text]

    ...you are demonstrating exactly the same behaviour as you are objecting to above.

    Quite right, good spot. However my point stands that they are very different situations. One science, one profiteering.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  4. Junkyard - Member

    THM it is pretty pointless you taking little extracts from the IPCC report when their conclusion is pretty clear about what they think is the cause of the current warming and the role of man made C02 in it.
    I assume you are not suggesting that they dont think the cause is AGW so why use selected extracts to "prove your point" or counter its own conclusions. If anything it supports the point they have considered everything. I sort of get your points but it is clutching at straws/unwise to use the IPCC to support your view.

    Molgrips makes some good points hence why we get philosophical points then you using a report that concludes AGW is occurring as proof [ or to support if you prefer] it is not and other things are more/equally important.
    Next week shall we try and cure cancer?

    I should have realised you would have read it as well sorry

    Posted 7 months ago #
  5. LHS - Member

    LHS - have you not heard of Milankovich Forcing...

    I have, yes.

    What's your point?

    I evaluate evidence as I see it

    And to your point, there is no conclusive evidence available.

    One science, one profiteering.

    Which one's which?

    Posted 7 months ago #
  6. TandemJeremy - Member

    There never is LHS - however when the vast majority of climate scientists say one thing and the deniers are so lacking in rigour then its pretty easy to be 99% sure.

    You seem pretty convinced about helmets with much less good data

    Posted 7 months ago #
  7. LHS - Member

    You seem pretty convinced about helmets with much less good data

    I won't point out the irony in your statement!

    however when the vast majority

    People used to think the earth was flat, the moon was made of cheese, the rain followed the plow and the earth was only 6000 years old.

    I stated previously that I am not a climate sceptic (denier as the fools like to refer to it), however no matter how much you insist there is, there is no evidence to say that we are in nothing more than a peak in a natural cycle.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  8. TandemJeremy - Member

    There is plenty of evidence - read the report referred to above for starters. The key bit IMO is the way the CO2 rise is leading the climate change when in natural cycles it lags.

    If you don't want to believe its up to you but to say there is no evidence is frankly laughable

    Posted 7 months ago #
  9. TheBrick - Member

    People used to think the earth was flat, the moon was made of cheese, the rain followed the plow and the earth was only 6000 years old.

    Not via scientific methods they didn't.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  10. ooOOoo - Member

    If scientists could just prove 100% that burning huge hydrocarbon reserves over a couple hundred years has 0% effect on the climate, I could get myself a bloody car again!
    The headwind today coming home...sheesh!

    Posted 7 months ago #
  11. molgrips - Member

    And to your point, there is no conclusive evidence available

    No.. conclusive evidence is a luxury, however I personally am of the opinion that it is quite likely that AGR is a reality (hahah yes I know re the other thread of today).

    however no matter how much you insist there is, there is no evidence to say that we are in nothing more than a peak in a natural cycle

    Really? So how do you explain all the scientists saying that there is?

    Posted 7 months ago #
  12. LHS - Member

    If you don't want to believe

    I didn't realise it was a religion now?

    TJ, you have this 'belief' that helmets cause more accidents than without, you are entitled to your opinion.

    To say something laughable is just a belittling (disappointing) statement, especially when you can't show me science that backs up that statement.

    So how do you explain all the scientists saying that there is?

    The same "robust" scientists made some pretty mind boggling, incorrect sweeping generalisations about glaciers, sea levels and quite a few other things.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  13. TandemJeremy - Member

    TJ, you have this 'belief' that helmets cause more accidents than without, you are entitled to your opinion.

    No I do not. I have never said that.

    However its beside the point. Which is that you believe in the efficacy of helmets when the evidence is far from conclusive when on climate despite far stronger evidence that is far more conclusive you won't believe the conclusion.

    That is not a rational position.

    Evidence - lots been posted on this thread. Here is a link to teh gold standard
    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml

    Posted 7 months ago #
  14. LHS - Member

    on climate despite far stronger evidence that is far more conclusive

    That is where I will strongly disagree with you.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  15. TandemJeremy - Member

    And LHS - there in a nutshell is your argument. Rubbish anyone who disagrees with you with a gross distortion of their position, ignore any evidence and data that does not agree with your position.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  16. molgrips - Member

    The same "robust" scientists made some pretty mind boggling, incorrect sweeping generalisations about glaciers, sea levels and quite a few other things.

    What, all of them? How many scientists are we talking about here? The IPCC ones, or the others?

    You do realise scientists are not one cohesive small group, don't you? Maybe this is why you are confused with all the different things being said?

    Posted 7 months ago #
  17. LHS - Member

    And LHS TJ - there in a nutshell is your argument. Rubbish anyone who disagrees with you with a gross distortion of their position, ignore any evidence and data that does not agree with your position

    Fixed it for you.

    Seriously though, if you ask for evidence, you point me to a website full of papers. Why can't you show me a single piece of information which categorically shows me that i'm wrong?

    Posted 7 months ago #
  18. LHS - Member

    What, all of them?

    No

    The IPCC ones

    Yes

    You do realise scientists are not one cohesive small group

    Yes

    Maybe this is why you are confused with all the different things being said?

    No confusion here.

    Next belittling statement to try and strengthen your position?

    The most popular are Denier and Daily mail reader.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  19. molgrips - Member

    Why can't you show me a single piece of information which categorically shows me that i'm wrong?

    Cos there isn't any. However there's quite a bit of evidence that suggests likelihood.

    If you only ever want categorical proof before acting then you are...well... daft.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  20. LHS - Member

    Daft
    good one.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  21. molgrips - Member

    I can re-phrase that if you like. Dismissing anything that is not categorical is daft.

    Tell me why you're not daft..?

    Are you saying that evidence has to amount to categorical proof before it can be important?

    Posted 7 months ago #
  22. LHS - Member

    I know what your response will be to this statement, but I genuinely don't have the energy or see the point in discussing any further. We will never agree so best to leave it there.

    You can add one final post if you like calling me a name, i'll even provide a space below for you

    insert comment here___________________________

    Posted 7 months ago #
  23. molgrips - Member

    I didn't call you a name, I described your actions. I'd like to hear you describe mine, because I still don't understand your point of view.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  24. Junkyard - Member

    there is no evidence to say that we are in nothing more than a peak in a natural cycle.

    burning fossil fuels is natural then and has no effect and it has no effect on natural cycles...could you explain that to me?

    I dont see how you can debate that point tbh. You may debate the effects but I dont see how you can describe the current reliance on oil and subsequent release of stored carbon as a natural cycle - it is obviously man made. Given cause and effect and the natural cycle is still there we must be affecting it- how much and what are the consequences are the appropriate questions.

    The same "robust" scientists made some pretty mind boggling, incorrect sweeping generalisations about glaciers, sea levels and quite a few other things.

    There are only real two neither if which is that strong. the first is the stronger claim. Considering how much data they use and claims they make it is not proof that the overall report is false or incorrect. I very much doubt a scientific report of that size has ever been so thoroughly analysed for error and omisssion [ by people determined to show it is wrong] and yet that is the best they can do. Not great but not enough to refute it all either.
    Himalayan glaciers: In a regional chapter on Asia in Volume 2, written by authors from the region, it was erroneously stated that 80% of Himalayan glacier area would very likely be gone by 2035. This is of course not the proper IPCC projection of future glacier decline, which is found in Volume 1 of the report. There we find a 45-page, perfectly valid chapter on glaciers, snow and ice (Chapter 4), with the authors including leading glacier experts (such as our colleague Georg Kaser from Austria, who first discovered the Himalaya error in the WG2 report). There are also several pages on future glacier decline in Chapter 10 (“Global Climate Projections”), where the proper projections are used e.g. to estimate future sea level rise. So the problem here is not that the IPCC’s glacier experts made an incorrect prediction. The problem is that a WG2 chapter, instead of relying on the proper IPCC projections from their WG1 colleagues, cited an unreliable outside source in one place. Fixing this error involves deleting two sentences on page 493 of the WG2 report.

    Sea level in the Netherlands: The WG2 report states that “The Netherlands is an example of a country highly susceptible to both sea-level rise and river flooding because 55% of its territory is below sea level”. This sentence was provided by a Dutch government agency – the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, which has now published a correction stating that the sentence should have read “55 per cent of the Netherlands is at risk of flooding; 26 per cent of the country is below sea level, and 29 per cent is susceptible to river flooding”. It surely will go down as one of the more ironic episodes in its history when the Dutch parliament last Monday derided the IPCC, in a heated debate, for printing information provided by … the Dutch government. In addition, the IPCC notes that there are several definitions of the area below sea level. The Dutch Ministry of Transport uses the figure 60% (below high water level during storms), while others use 30% (below mean sea level). Needless to say, the actual number mentioned in the report has no bearing on any IPCC conclusions and has nothing to do with climate science, and it is questionable whether it should even be counted as an IPCC error.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  25. ransos - Member

    From the IPCC: "Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas" ...Ok I was going for a bit of selective editing there (!!) because we then get.."carbon dioxide (CO2) is the second-most important one".

    There is positive feedback with both gases:

    IPCC again: "as the atmosphere warms due to rising levels of greenhouse gases, its concentration of water vapour increases, further intensifying the greenhouse effect. This in turn causes more warming, which causes an additional increase in water vapour, in a self-reinforcing cycle."

    and interestingly....

    "This water vapour feedback may be strong enough to approximately double the increase in the greenhouse effect due to the added CO2 alone."

    All of which is entirely consistent with what I said. So what's your point?

    Too selective. Too be fair you would need to argue, "if there were no greenhouse effect, it would be too cold for life to exist on earth."

    Of which CO2 is a principal constituent. Therefore, without it, life would not exist.

    Next!

    Posted 7 months ago #
  26. teamhurtmore - Member

    Blimey JY - you are being harsh on raising the benchmarks on a mtb forum.

    THM it is pretty pointless you taking little extracts from the IPCC report when their conclusion is pretty clear about what they think is the cause of the current warming and the role of man made C02 in it.
    I assume you are not suggesting that they dont think the cause is AGW so why use selected extracts to "prove your point" or counter its own conclusions.

    On the previous page you (1) imply that I haven't read the IPCC and (2) that is refutes my point about the relative importance of water vapour vs CO2. All I did was the quote the IPCC conclusions on this point. The post was already far too long, so excuse me for not taking it too more rigorous levels.

    Ransos - the point is that you choose the emphasis CO2 in isolation. The IPCC doesn't do that. It acknowledges that water vapour is more important and explains the interaction of them both and the positive feedback involving them. So I was simply correcting you misplaced emphasis to incorporate both in exactly the same way as the IPCC does. Whereas deliberately or not you cleverly chose to highlight one part of it - CO2.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  27. GrahamS - Member

    *pops head in*

    Damn, I see this thread has dissolved into flaming and name calling. Shame we had a fairly interesting discussion going on there for a bit.

    I'll leave you to it.

    *leaves*

    Posted 7 months ago #
  28. AdamW - Member

    Yep, as I thought!

    Armchair climatologists abound!

    So, can someone then quickly post up the cure for leukaemia or tell us about where mass comes from, since we have such geniuses around? After all all those scientists researching these subjects every day seem to have missed an awful lot of stuff. I'd remove their PhD's and Nobel Prizes, bunch of idiots.

    And don't get me started on Louis Pasteur! Bacteria? What a load of cack! Did he take into account the locality of cheese when he came up with that load of rubbish! We should ban all of these so-called "antibiotics" and replace them with very small mice!

    Posted 7 months ago #
  29. Zulu-Eleven - Member

    So, can someone then quickly post up the cure for leukaemia or tell us about where mass comes from, since we have such geniuses around?

    Well, of course not, as the human body is a really complex system, and we don't really understand all the systems within it, o how they work... similar with the universe... fortunately, the global ecosytem is really really simple, so we know all about it

    Posted 7 months ago #
  30. Junkyard - Member

    you are being harsh on raising the benchmarks on a mtb forum.

    there is a 26 page one on this very subject with main as the main protagonist ...I am just getting started

    I never refuted water
    I said it was possible that the non main driver can have an effect and gave an example. Again no one disputes that water is a factor but the IPCC report you cite concludes that warming is highly likely due to AGW whatever it says about water. Unless you want to agree with its whole conclusion it is not actually supportive of your view unless you agree with AGW or you selectively cite it.
    I think Graham is correct so I shall leave it now ....must resist.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  31. teamhurtmore - Member

    JY - I missed the smiley. It was meant as a joke (the benchmark thing)

    Time to leave this thread now - as there is little room for further debate. I'm afraid that any slight knowledge of the IPCC would lead any normal person to adopt a healthy degree of scepticism. But the post I like today most is AdamW's for being so (unintentionally) spot on:

    Armchair climatologists abound!

    How true you are Adam. Thank you!

    "The IPCC had reported, as highly probably, that the glaciers in the Himalayas would melt, due to global warming, by the year 2035. Expert glaciologists said the claims were total rubbish. But the IPCC was refusing to back down....

    ...The head of the IPCC, who has no degrees in the fields over which he presides, launched some very public attacks on people who actually are experts on glaciers...

    ...the IPCC “expert reviewer” responsible, Murari Lal, cited several sources for this startling claim—not a one of them considered a legitimate scientific source...

    ...Lal is trying to excuse his bogus claims, published by the IPCC as fact. He says: “I am not an expert on glaciers and I have not visited the region so I have to rely on credible published research. The comments in the WWF report were made by a respected Indian scientist and it was reasonable to assume he knew what he was talking about.” So, Lal admits he published this extreme claim about glaciers on nothing more than the hearsay report from a political lobbying group like the World Wildlife Fund. There was no attempt to verify the claim, there was no scientific data investigated, no peer reviewed reports read. It was published simply because one IPCC office “assumed” it must be right. Why that assumption? Because skepticism is discouraged by the IPCC."

    Good night!!

    Posted 7 months ago #
  32. ransos - Member

    Ransos - the point is that you choose the emphasis CO2 in isolation. The IPCC doesn't do that. It acknowledges that water vapour is more important and explains the interaction of them both and the positive feedback involving them. So I was simply correcting you misplaced emphasis to incorporate both in exactly the same way as the IPCC does. Whereas deliberately or not you cleverly chose to highlight one part of it - CO2.

    Wrong. I was responding to a point about CO2. Water vapour responds to climate change rather than driving it, so whilst it may be the most "important" gas in terms of its global warming potential, all it does is amplify the effect of other gases. The other point is that it doesn't stay in the atmosphere very long, unlike CO2.

    Posted 7 months ago #
  33. Junkyard - Member

    Why that assumption? Because skepticism is discouraged by the IPCC."
    Good night!!

    Wow all that report and that is all you have Powerful counter
    I note you don’t mention the previous quote I gave or the section of the IPCC report that covers glaciers in details rather than this regional section. I note that you fail to mention that it was an IPCC contributor who first noted this and commented.

    You are placing hugely disproportionate weight to one minor error/mistake
    I am going to claim we are in global boom times based solely on China.
    I am quite surprised you would go down this road tbh.

    Who gets the last word

    Posted 7 months ago #
  34. LHS - Member

    Why that assumption? Because skepticism is discouraged by the IPCC."
    Good night!!

    What terrible selective quoting? That is really poor even by your standards!

    I note you don’t mention the previous quote I gave or the section of the IPCC report that covers glaciers in details rather than this regional section. I note that you fail to mention that it was an IPCC contributor who first noted this and commented.

    Is that the same report written by a new intern graduate without his masters degree yet?

    Posted 7 months ago #
  35. molgrips - Member

    Is that the same report written by a new intern graduate without his masters degree yet?

    What's that got to do with anything?

    Posted 7 months ago #

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Issue 73