The problem is, 'those in power' can't alter what is going to happen next, there is more power vested in computer algorythms trading our currency than anything Politicians can do.
There is only one certainty and this is two and a half years of uncertainty which is why they should trigger A50 sooner rather than later unless it is as I suspect a conspiracy to delay and hope things get so bad nobody will want to leave any longer. Those that are wielding the limited economic controls are certainly not doing anything that's going to improve our circumstances.
Talking sterling down this low will import inflation, food inflation, fuel inflation, raw material inflation,in fact everything we've been hoping for to correct the wage imbalance and snap us out of stagflation but it's not going to feel good, businesses are going to fail and there is going to be a massive recession if they don't do something to stabilise the currency markets and that is mission impossible.
The deed fortunately or unfortunately is done, and what is needed now is a clear sense of either getting on with it, or not, arguing wether it's a good or bad thing will contain in itself, a self fulfilling prophesy of disaster, say it often and long enough and it will become true.
My prophesy? inflation above 3% by Christmas and interest rates on the rise by the new year, by the time we trigger A50 in March in the teeth of a seasonal and financially based slow down, nobody is going to want it to happen and there aint' going to be many jobs spare for immigrants or anyone else for that matter.
By that time the EU quite possibly won't exist.
This I fear is the real agenda of the brexiteers. They're not content with trashing our own country for their own narrow ambitions, they want to trash the rest of the EU too.
we will be encouraged to spend more on UK products and less on imports is good for our economy.
Can't wait to see the UK made version of the Macbook Pro I was stupidly about to buy, and kit it out with the equivalent UK made Adobe software.
Oh wait... hang on a minute....
Jamba - can you confirm the source of each of these statements?
Manufacturing up (due to lower pound)
Record service sector revenues (lower pound helps a lot)
Best growth of G7 nations
I thought the most recent figures said otherwise, but I could be wrong.
The trade gap is rising isn't it? Which is worrying given the exchange rate.
And some big inflation is probably just round the corner in a country that imports a third of everything it uses that just saw a 30% (ish) currency devaluation over the last 12 months.
Agreed?
It is very normal for EU bureaucrats to describe Brexit in very negative ways because there is NO other way, the opposite is more of a concern.
The impact on the economy is normal in any sort of adjustment period and this is also the time for big speculators to cash in. There will be several periods where you will see share/currency speculators cashing in and making big profit in the next few years. Normal.
Economy will come and go in cycle (Yes, boom and bust - inevitable) but the emotional health of the majority that voted for Brexit will be much better without EU. They have had this pressure on them for a long time.
On the other hand, like a cycle, the remainder will now have to through the same emotional consequences of those people in 1 January 1973. Very normal. Time will pass and when the dust settle they will feel much better as they will see the light.
Try as they will but Brexiters are dragging them out of EU whether they like it or not just like the day when they dragged others into EU. All the delay in laws/arguments/Parliamentary debates are just the devil's details that need to be ironed out. Therefore, they just have to give it their best to let Brexiters know their feeling while the topic is still on everyone mind.
The EU system is like the boa constrictor slowly squeezing the air out off the people lungs but now we can breath fresh air again.
Being a Brexiter must be like having Status Quo tattoo. It was a good idea at the time but no matter how shit they are you still have to buy their records.
[quote=jambalaya ]
we will be encouraged to spend more on UK products and less on imports is good for our economy.
And here in lies the crux of the problem. We will be "encouraged" to spend more on UK products. I just did a quick scan of my desk and surroundings
My Camelbak water bottle is made in China
My tablet is made in Taiwan
My mobile phone is made in Korea
My computer monitor is made in China
My desk phone is made in China
My LCD TV is made in Taiwan
My watch is made in Taiwan
What fantasy world do you live in where we're suddenly about to make all those things in the UK?
The general public want to earn more money and pay even less for the bits of tat they use to fill the empty voids in their life.
I can go onto the Argos site right now and buy a 49" LCD TV for £500. It's been made in the far east and shipped here. How much do you reckon that TV would cost if it was made in the UK?
Grow up and wake up. When the masses realise how much they've been conned, and how expensive life is going to get for them, it'll be far too late and those that led us down this road will be laughing at them in their Chelsea and Mayfair homes.
wobbliscott - Member
whatever Brexit looks like we must have control of our boarders,
?
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but the emotional health of the majority that voted for Brexit will be much better without EU. They have had this pressure on them for a long time.
😯
WTF are you talking about? What pressure? Being part of the most successful and richest economic bloc in the world? Living in peace for 70 years with people who were once sworn enemies? Being able to work, travel, live in some of the most beautiful countries on the planet? Exposure to other cultures, languages etc? Must have beein f***** terrible for them! Still, as long as we can have bendy bananas and call a pork sausage a pork sausage eh!
the emotional health of the majority that voted for Brexit will be much better without EU.
Bullshit.
They'll keep blaming immigrants and feeling like they have no control over their country.
None of that 'feeling' or, the damaging effects if it, will dissipate in 29 months time.
Why would it?
zippykona - Member
Being a Brexiter must be like having Status Quo tattoo. It was a good idea at the time but no matter how shit they are you still have to buy their records.
Actually it is more like Rick Astley's Never Gonna Give You Up. Check the lyrics coz it is very appropriate.
kelvin - Member
the emotional health of the majority that voted for Brexit will be much better without EU.
Bullshit.They'll keep blaming immigrants and feeling like they have no control over their country.
That has been the norm for a long time so we shall have to wait and see.
None of that 'feeling' or, the damaging effects if it, will dissipate in 29 months time.Why would it?
If you keep hanging on the "damaging effect" then even 50 years will make no different to how you feel. Let it go.
What's it like, being you?
450,000 claim in-work benefits, this represnts 1 in 8 of EU Nationals - I would wager this is a much higher percentage than German Nationals
Does that include Kindergeld? Mutterschaftgeld? Elterngeld? Or just means tested benefits?
You would "wager"?
Of course you would, as you believe, despite all evidence, that immigration isn't important/vital to all levels of an economy, just the lower paid parts.
Even if you win your wager, we need to know if those benefits are linked to them being more likely to have children, and the effects this has on Germany's pension time bomb.
Very clear EU Nationals are more likely to be in lower paid jobs and having to be subsidised by the Government.
Very clear? How did you arrive at that conclusion? Are you sure this is not just bullshit?
And after the Brexiters realise that the EU was not responsible for all their trouble, who are they going to target next? Gay, disabled, black, Asian???
Very dangerous path.
Bullshit.
They'll keep blaming immigrants and feeling like they have no control over their country.
Exactly. They'll still feel left behind as the world homgenisises and changes on without them as they cling to their little englander fantasies
My wife asked me does anyone actually remember what the UK was like before we joined the EU (or Common Market as it was then).
All I remember about joining in 1973 was drawing flags of the various nations to hang up in the classroom, but I reckon that the only folk who were working (for a period) before 1973 have probably all retired now...
Quite a decent write up.
My wife asked me does anyone actually remember what the UK was like before we joined the EU (or Common Market as it was then).
I remember Vesta Chinese meals, and I remember my mum bringing home yoghurt for the first time. Looks like my old age will resemble my childhood in more ways than the obvious.
If Sturgeon pulls off a reverse Denmark (and I'm not saying she will, but it looks like she's still trying), can we expect to see massive numbers of southern Britons (Welsh, English, whatever) suddenly discovering Scots roots?
igm - Member
If Sturgeon pulls off a reverse Denmark (and I'm not saying she will, but it looks like she's still trying), can we expect to see massive numbers of southern Britons (Welsh, English, whatever) suddenly discovering Scots roots
yay! my mums from Newton Mearns !
Posh boy
I got married in Comlongon Castle does that make me Scottish?
Are you any good at football?
Are you any good at football?
Yes. Does that rule me out of claiming Scottish nationality?
Largest Scottish city in the UK by population is London and their pro-Europe to so should they be invited to join the progressive British EU teritories? (Needs a new name - even I couldn't live with that. Does accurately reflect the sentiments though.)
Largest Scottish city in the UK by population is London
Eh? What you smoking?
I assume it means town with the most scottish people in as scottish city will need to be in Scotland
Is London not also Frances third largest city or some such ?
You think there are more Scots living in London than in Glasgow? 😐
More people claiming to be Scots, live in London than any other UK city. To be fair there's only 90k actually born in Scotland (which still gets it 5th place) but if you include Scots parentage etc it rises quickly. That said there'll be some dubious claims that would never get a passport (if they ever come into being)
20 million Americans claim to be Scots including the "Clan Schultz" at the Granfather Mountain highland gathering one year.
Bad form there DrJ, stealing my punchline 🙁
igm - Memberthe progressive British EU teritories? (Needs a new name - even I couldn't live with that.
Call it Yakult- because it's ProBEUTic
I'm disappointed that May, Fox, Davies, Johnson et al. are so bad at talking sterling up.Talking sterling down
They need to do a Tescos and stand up for themselves.
Like it Northwind. Now can you say it in a Govan accent.
[quote=igm ]More people claiming to be Scots, live in London than any other UK city.Source? (ah - you edited it).
2011 census data says 90,000 Scots living in London. Even allowing for the number of English (and other nationalities) living in Scottish cities, quite a few of them have more than 90,000 residents. And only [b]9th[/b] most populous nationality, behind India, Poland, Ireland, Nigeria, ****stan, Bangladesh and "South America".
Only 4 cities over 90k in Scotland Scotroutes
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_towns_and_cities_in_Scotland_by_population
I'm disappointed that May, Fox, Davies, Johnson et al. are so bad at talking sterling up.
Just reading the Guardian financial pages, and they summed up the problem facing the pound and the UK economy generally.
Its in so much trouble because as triggering article 50 looms large, the word from everyone dealing with them seems to be that May, Fox, Davies, Johnson et al haven't got a bloody clue what they're doing
torsoinalake - Member
Talking sterling down
I'm disappointed that May, Fox, Davies, Johnson et al. are so bad at talking sterling up.
They need to do a Tescos and stand up for themselves.
You forget, the financial establishment are remainers and are doing everything they can to fulfil the prophesies of project fear.
They also need inflation, stagflation has them scared shitless, nothing works the way it should, using 'Brexit' as an excuse for price inflation is a way out of the argument, whilst suggesting they are trying to help, when really help wasn't needed at the time they crashed the £.
Watch oil pricing recover, it's priced in US dollars, you watch your petrol pumps in the coming months..
You forget, the financial establishment are remainers and are doing everything they can to fulfil the prophesies of project fear.
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The Mrs is a Sweaty sock, so can i come too?
What am I looking for? Them all to start flashing '666' heralding the arrival of the illuminati?you watch your petrol pumps in the coming months.
ulysse - MemberThe Mrs is a Sweaty sock, so can i come too?
No xenophobes thanks.
binners - Member
I'm disappointed that May, Fox, Davies, Johnson et al. are so bad at talking sterling up.
Just reading the Guardian financial pages, and they summed up the problem facing the pound and the UK economy generally.Its in so much trouble because as triggering article 50 looms large, the word from everyone dealing with them seems to be that May, Fox, Davies, Johnson et al haven't got a bloody clue what they're doing
And tell me, who has got a clue how to handle this? Osbourne? John McDonnell? Quite honestly other than the dilly dallying, this lot are as good as the next, but they should have just triggered it, they're only going to get what 27 bickering states think they want out of the deal, sooner or later, having another 9 months of needless discussion isn't going to help.
Nobody thought we were going to leave, not UKIP, not Labour, not Tory, not the EU, it is an earth shattering decision that quite literally rocked their world so it's understandable they haven't got a clue what to do, but life moves on and someone has to deal with it, personally I'd sooner see Teresa May running the show than anyone else I could think of, unless you have a better idea.
I'm not xenophobic, i hate everyone...
personally I'd sooner see Teresa May running the show than anyone else I could think of, unless you have a better idea.
lots and lots but heres any easy one
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May oversaw a succession of disastrous policies in the home office,
abu qatada deportation, when she got the deadline wrong
making the police hate her
racism vvans to scasre off immigrants
passport check border control meltdown
repeated missed immigration targets
so far brexishambles hads been tragic, appointing the 3 stooges as the brexit ministers being the pinnacle of stupidity, unless she wants brexit to fail..... 😀
kimbers - Member
You forget, the financial establishment are remainers and are doing everything they can to fulfil the prophesies of project fear.
[img]
Where did you get that picture kimbers? Are you stalking me?
I know I'm being watched. 😕
Ruth Davidson? I'll need to dust off an old roflcopter for this.
are you farage?
kimbers - Member
personally I'd sooner see Teresa May running the show than anyone else I could think of, unless you have a better idea.
lots and lots but heres any easy one
[img]
Is that a tank gun barrel between her legs or is she pleased to see me?
a pro european respected in the EU who is able to negotiate in mutual respect and get a better dealpersonally I'd sooner see Teresa May running the show than anyone else I could think of, unless you have a better idea
The EU is already, and I dont blame them, openly mocking the three brexiters
If we are saying ruth davies how about
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personally I'd sooner see Teresa May running the show than anyone else I could think of, unless you have a better idea.
May isn't the main problem. This lot are. Actually... seeing as she appointed the idiots, maybe she is the main problem. I wouldn't trust this lot to organise the raffle at a church jumble sale....
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be honest... when those appointments were announced, did you initially think it was some kind of joke?
I did. But its getting less funny by the day. Because everything they utter betrays the fact that they're a bunch of delusional imbeciles
I don't think it matters who is in charge as it's a fundamentally unsolvable problem. It's just not possible to leave the EU and maintain the standard of living that everyone is used to. They either take the hit and become the government/party who wrecked the economy to appease ignorant xenophobia and racism, or they find some way of backing out of it. Like I said, this is the only solace I can find, one way or the other, the tory party is now f**** and I think they know it.
Don't be so pessimistic, traitor! You should be clapped in the Tower for doing down this great nation with such talk
The Tories are spilt in this. You cant make it a party issue.
They happen to be the party that has to execute the mandate delivered (?) by the "advisory" referendum. Of course its a mess - no one has done this before and its a lose:lose.
Barring a miraculous compromise agreement ie, a fudged non-Brexit, the government has to deliver the least self-harm result.
Labour are v lucky because despite their own disarray on the issue, the Tories will inevitably take the responsibility for the forthcoming bit of a mess. But then again life and politics aren't fair are they?
Labour are v lucky because despite their own disarray on the issue, the Tories will inevitably take the responsibility for the forthcoming bit of a mess. But then again life and politics aren't fair are they?
agreed
even with Corbyn still in charge (tho imho hes not as unelectable as many think) I cant see the tories poltting a safe course out of this-
they either let down 48% of the country, 52% of the country or more likely 98%* of the country
*2%= jambalaya, davies, fox, farage and leadsome & a few of the hardcore express/mail readers will probably gaze over our post A50 economic wasteland and still see some sort of fantasy 1950s monoracial utopia
IMO 52/48 on a c70% turnout when only c70% of the population could vote is no mandate. That the Tory party have declared that as a resounding mandate has not so much shot themselves in the foot but run into a minefield carrying a nuke.
Some of what May has said about ignored voters, parts of society being abandoned etc is true, but it isn't the EU that abandoned these areas, and work needs to be done. When you have a media landscape shaped by Murdoch/Dacre/etc was there any likelyhood of a "fair" vote.
So those poor areas are going to hell, tax revenue will drop or tax will have to rise substantially, that is really going to go down well!, there will be no investment because the country can't afford it. Forget Trident, HS2 etc. The civil service is going to be spending alot of time sorting this bit of a mess. The lawyers are laughing though!
So what are May's alternatives?
1. Should she be saying Brexshit means Brexshit or possibly Brexshit (we are doing our best to fudge it)?
2. Get on with things or stick her head in the sand?
3. Put the monkeys in charge or someone sane?
4. Pretend that there is something to present to Parliament at every stage to keep 24H news happy or brief as is necessary?
There are more, but those are just starters.
5) go for hard brexit, drop corporation tax down to nothing and turn us into a tax haven, there will be no money to help the 'left behind brexit voters' but low immigration will help murdoch/dacre convincing them its all getting better and that the EU is definitely going to be worse off
my reasoning is, she prommissed the Nissan guy something at the meeting at No10 today- he left smiling, it was either, yes we will stay in the single market or we will throw you a ton of cash to stay
All this talk of hard and soft Brexit is so negative, there is only exit from the EU and the single market, that's it.
What then needs to be negotiated quickly are the Trade Tariffs to keep goods flowing to and fro and wether or not we agree to remain signed up to product regulations.
Then we have to consider the legal bill and what our exposure to EU liabilities & pensions is going to cost us, this will involve hard bargaining and lots of work. It will be tied to future visas and movement of folk in work, theirs to here, ours to there.
The rest should be just gone, no EU law, no free movement of people, no restrictions on trade arrangements with other countries, no fishing quotas, no farming subsidies, no set aside, but no Eu grants either they'll have to be sorted internally.
Then it's Utopia.
A lot to do, best we get on with it.
to remain signed up to product regulations.
Why would they allow us to export goods that didnt match their regulations?
May's alternatives, really do involve the three stooges being incompetent or magicians.
One way she can walk away saying impossible, and the other we do become some kind of nirvana.
IMO she screwed up the moment she started talking about decisive, Farage made it clear that 48/52 would be unfinished business. 52/48 is no mandate.
Also the minor issue of the court case on royal perogative, does she have power or does westminster have the final say. Which then comes back to how many MPs are willing to pull the trigger.
IF they can come out with a plan that the markets accept, the voters accept etc
WHich ex poster are you rosscore?
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Please sign this if you agree.
http://writetoremain.uk/?list&utm_term=0_d384ff744f-475f7e94d7-61175057
Good point - it was a v indecisive vote and its disingenuous of the BSErs to talk otherwise. But she is caught because she cant stand up and say this is bloody complicated, will take time and is a buggers muddle - since she will be declared incompetent - so she has to feign competence (that no one has here) instead.
What a bloody mess
Just how much rain is falling up north?
rosscore - Member
Then it's Utopia.
either:
A) your idea of Utopia is very different from mine
or
B) you really haven't thought about this at all.
example of 'B':
how would UK farmers, producing subsidy-free wheat, compete with EU farmers?
(edit: or 'C') troll, well done)
yes its at 55 - 45 it becomes decisive isnt it thm...either that or when they agree with you ...one of the two
IMHO neither is that decisive as the gaps remain quite close so that the populace is broadly split into two camps of opposing views
However with one it was a chance in a lifetime and with the other its not a mandate.....gotta have principles in life
So what are May's alternatives?
5. Continue with the plan which is make Brexit look so bad that it gets postponed indefinitely and eventually canned.
I think Juncker's in on it tbh.
5. Continue with the plan which is make Brexit look so bad that it gets postponed indefinitely and eventually canned.I think Juncker's in on it tbh.
and Tusk!
I genuinely have been thinking this is a possibility, I reckon she let Ghosn in on it today too
can you imagine if this conspiracy were to be exposed though?!, how many brexiters heads would actually explode, 😆
ahwiles - Member
rosscore - Member
Then it's Utopia.
either:A) your idea of Utopia is very different from mine
or
B) you really haven't thought about this at all.
You tell me your idea of Utopia, I'll tell you mine, I left out the winky emoji sorry.
My little world is absolute hell since that decision, my living relies on buying goods from a small company in Germany and selling them from my little company here in the UK, rather like that poor lady they all ignored on QT last night telling her she'd better get used to it, the 2 1/2 years of uncertainty ahead, during a period the vat man makes more money from the goods I sell than I do. There are already considerable price pressures and there aint much belt room left, one more knotch and the back of the buckle will touch the front.
My Utopia doesn't include anything called Politician.
You have to think that there is a behind the scenes deal going on
But they will only declare it after the pain of the negotiations becomes clear
Then it's Utopia.
Obviously there are three main parts to this brexshit debacle: Political, Economic, Legal.
Naturally, Darth Theresa and the three brexiteers are focusing on the Political, trying their damnedest to ignore the economic(along with all the other utopian Brexshit loonies) and have completely buried their heads in the sand over the legal complications of trying to exit something to which the country has belonged to in one form or another for the last forty years. The legal complexities alone could take decades to untangle.
This is why the "hard brexit" thing has been put forward, a purely political agenda that attempts to brush under the carpet the other two parts. Unfortunately for them the "wall of reality" has once again appeared.
Its curious that we get on this here forum what appears to be the most ardent of brexshiteers(loonies) who are trying to will into existence some sort of utopian free trade world, that hasn't existed up until now for good reason, and will not exist now or in the future for the same good reason.
Brexit should be a lesson to others that exit from EU doesn't exempt you from globalization;[u]it just gives you less power to shape its rules.[/u]
The fundamental point that never gets answered, if this is about migration why were we still having 150k non EU people coming into the UK, the easily stopped number. It is almost as if the politicians don't want to admit that stopping immigration is going to cause a few minor issues in itself.
Rosscore - I suspect unless Brexit is very soft or canned your present is your foreseeable future. It probably isn't going to get better after A50 is triggered, and it will be 5-10 years* before a positive stability starts to set in. Sorry, but I guess that's what the overwhelming majority voted for.
*my estimate - jambalaya suggested somewhat longer.
and just to throw into the mix, just reading in Economist survey that upto 10% of brexit voters regret voting that way. only 2% of remain voters have that regret.
So there goes any mandate.
Get a few more bad stories and apart from Jambalaya will anyone complain if Brexit is scrapped?
The UK was doing so well afterall in the '70's! do we really want to go back there!
IGM you are quite correct hence my plea would be to get a move on.
As for Free Trade Area, I was in business in the 70's and in those days we did actually appear to sell more cars to Europe than they to us, unfortunately our labour relations were such that nobody wanted to make them with any regularity. It is ridiculous to compare the UK as it is today with the UK of the 70's, but having lived through the period even despite the inflation and the other problems it was a better time for young adults to set out on life's course.
You could work in Europe if you were lucky enough to get such a job, travel there was not a problem except like now the £ was in the toilet, so we used to ski in Italy where like now their economy was little better than ours and the lire could be purchased more reasonably.
What the EC promised and delivered was the lack of problems for goods crossing borders, if you were shipping a truck load of handbags from Italy to here it didn't get stopped and have to show customs documents at the Austrian, German, French or Belgian borders. It was, still is, a great idea, what wasn't such a great idea was the politicising of the trading group and it's continued expansion, it's often the way with buying and trading groups all the time they are small and manageable they are very successful, trouble only comes when there are too many beaks in the trough.
The mistake was rolling the EU right up to Putins door, they should have stopped at Poland and the Czech & Slovac republics, but what done can't be undone, all we can do is exit and hope to start anew, it's going to hurt, but I can only hope it'll be alright in the end, providing there isn't WW3, news of China sending thousands of troops to help conquer Isis, Nato troops massing along the Russian borders doesn't exactly fill me with confidence in anything right now.
[url= http://www.politico.eu/pro/theresa-mays-brexit-war-cabinet/ ]http://www.politico.eu/pro/theresa-mays-brexit-war-cabinet/[/url]
if they are the finest minds the uk can muster 🙁
Obviously there are three main parts to this brexshit debacle: Political, Economic, Legal.
Correct, nobody appears to give a shiny shit about the human element.
Carney just said inflation will rise and poorer in society will suffer even more with higher food prices.
Carney just said inflation will rise and poorer in society will suffer even more with higher food prices.
"NSS!" - and wait for when rates are normalised. Who will be screwed then?
cchris2lou - Member
Carney just said inflation will rise and poorer in society will suffer even more with higher food prices.POSTED 1 HOUR AGO #
And he could stop it now, in a trice, just restore interest rates to 1/5% suddenly, the £ would recover, inflation wouldn't occur..
But he won't, the Masters of the Universe have an entirely different Agenda.
surely rising interest rates would create chaos on housing market .
I dont think Carney is that keen on current government .
Yes
It doesn't matter - he has a job and a target. If inflation exceed the target he will have to raise Interest rates irrespective of his view on the government