Following on from the various tax/growth/rich/poor threads: why is growth stagnating? I have two answers. No link to start the thread as these are my own observations.

1/ We are bouncing off the level of growth that can be achieved before it increases energy demand. High growth leads to high energy demand which in turn results in high energy prices which in turn put the brakes on growth.

2/ Like the Japanese twenty years ago we have reached the stage where everyone has all the “stuff” they really need. The stuff they buy is to replace old stuff at a rate that doesn’t stimulate growth. Companies don’t need to hire more workers or even encourage overtime. Workers can only live beyond their means to a point and reached that point long ago. Given their current lifestyle their is little incentive to be entrepreneurial so they tick along in the day job that pays the bills rather than investing themselves in a growth stimulating venture. Complacency in a comfort zone.

The answers?

The energy issue is easy. Invest heavily in alternative energies so economic groth is not capped by oil production capacity.

Making people less complacent less easy. However, I’d start by taking over the BBC and replacing the dumbed-down, lowest-common-denominator opium with something a little more aspirational.

Well? Are you going to vote for me or flame me?

I’d start by taking over the BBC and replacing the dumbed-down, lowest-common-denominator opium with something a little more aspirational

Not sure which of the commercial tv channels/radio stations you feel has a smarter, higher quality output?

are you standing for office?

Making people less complacent less easy. However, I’d start by taking over the BBC and replacing the dumbed-down, lowest-common-denominator opium with something a little more aspirational.

Well la-de-da.

alpin – Member
are you standing for office?

No silly, he is Edukating[/u] us simpletons…

alpin – Member
are you standing for office?

I’d sit down if I was standing for office, it’s easier on the legs.

Making people less complacent less easy. However, I’d start by taking over the BBC and replacing the dumbed-down, lowest-common-denominator opium with something a little more aspirational.

I too but TV at the centre of my fantasy economic policies.

Like the Japanese twenty years ago we have reached the stage where everyone has all the “stuff” they really need.

And the growing population buys what?

Commercial channels do what sells and as it isn’t paid by a licence fee that is not our problem. I think think state television should aim high not low. Raymond Baxter rather than Clarkson. The stereotypical role models in soaps are very important IMO. I gave up watching East Enders because when a really offensive family became the heros of the soap. It’s interesting to compare the stereotypes in French and German soaps that are generally portrayed as well educated and thinking people.

Sorry, Alpin, I’m too honest.

Growing or declining population, Don Simon? Japan is decling and Europe is set to follow.

Do not, I repeat, do not watch South American (Spanish) soaps.
Isn’t the global population growing and new markets emerging which will/should provide new customer bases. It’s all about globalisation now.

…meanwhile on BBC2, right at this moment, there is a documentary on the Fukushima Nuclear plant and the safety of nuclear reactors in general by Professor Jim Al-Khalili.

I am fine with shite being on BBC1 if BBC2/BBC4/Radio 4 steps up.

TV is the key to modeling the economic behaviour of a population, TheBrick. That’s what every advertiser and product placer knows. Apple recognise it and plan on having a big say in what you watch and how you see it.

I gave up watching East Enders because when a really offensive family became the heros of the soap.

I gave up watching Eastenders because it was shit.

Consumerism within a country only really moves money around. Real wealth is created though either mining / minerals / oil / energy and exporting e.t.c., or production of a new technology ideas that can be sold world wide. In effect mining minds for intellectual property / minerals.

Globalisation indeed, Don Simon. So why has Japan stagnated despite all the overseas growth? Because internal growth has stagnated and the cost of production in a mature economy means exports are limited to items not made in the poorer world. The list of such items gets shorter as other nations play technological catch up.

2/ Like the Japanese twenty years ago we have reached the stage where everyone has all the “stuff” they really need. The stuff they buy is to replace old stuff at a rate that doesn’t stimulate growth.

most people want more stuff than they need so a limit on purchasing is only tempered by wages or availability of credit (debt).
a more pertinent issue is how that need is satiated (more debt that isn’t real growth) how much growth it generates in the supply chain and if the use of that product generates real growth (imported cheap household products used to ‘improve’ a home that is funded by? yes you guessed it ‘DEBT’ is not real growth as the next buyer can only fund that purchase with more fictitious money (yes Debt)).

i’m not saying i have all the answers or a comprehensive understanding of economics but then again neither have you and i certainly wouldn’t vote for you.

Globalisation indeed, Don Simon. So why has Japan stagnated despite all the overseas growth? Because internal growth has stagnated and the cost of production in a mature economy means exports are limited to items not made in the poorer world. The list of such items gets shorter as other nations play technological catch up.

and their house price bubble has already played itself out with an over 50% correction and a long period of stagnation, food for thought in the U.K.

Commercial channels do what sells and as it isn’t paid by a licence fee that is not our problem. I think think state television should aim high not low. Raymond Baxter rather than Clarkson.

Fair enough, I misinterpreted you. Agree with you about Clarkson. Almost anything but Clarkson. Except maybe Kenneth Clark, something about him gives me the horrors. James Burke FTW!

no matter what peeples circumstances they always want more/ newer/ faster/ shinier what limits that is there ability to pay for that either now with available funds or later with aquired funds that have to be repaid in the future,
if your ability to replace or repay those funds is questionable your desire to aquire the goods will diminish proportionally and thus the economy either prospers or withers

what the bbc say, do, propogate has little to do with the price of fish..

I think that view is overly simplistic.

The reasons for Japan’s stagnation are caused by far more than a lack of ambition on the part of salarymen and women. For starters, it’s manufacturing industry is suffering from competition from overseas, where workers will assemble an identical product at a lower cost. Then there’s the almost impenetrable domestic marketplace that’s extremely hard for competing foreign companies to gain a foothold in, which keeps imports of white goods very low. Japan also has a very strong currency at the moment, which is making exports expensive – you’ve all noticed those SLX cranks which retailed for £89 in 2008 now cost double this.

Then there’s the whole socio-political landscape of Japan…

However, I do agree with some of the OP’s points.

For starters, the growing gap between energy demand and resource is going to drive up prices in the short to medium term. We need to address the issues of dwindling fossil fuels and the demand for alternative energy. I certainly wouldn’t say that its the easy part – we’ve got to make renewable energy cheap enough and reliable enough to part meet our needs until nuclear fusion becomes viable – if it becomes viable. Both of which are going to require a lot of investment. Given that we’ve spent a fortune on economic stimulus packages, there isn’t the cash to do it.

Switching over from a petroleum based transport infrastructure to a hydrogen based transport infrastructure will cost in the region of a trillion pounds and that is based on the assumption that we’ll solve the various problems entailed with storing hydrogen. The money isn’t going to come from central government, who cannot wait to pass the cost onto the consumer.

That said, you’d think that they’d invest in improvements to the public transport network to help ease the demand for fossil fuel powered cars, which would be an entirely sensible thing to do… 🙄

Given that we’ve spent a fortune on economic stimulus packages, there isn’t the cash to do it.

but that wasn’t real money was it. they will just make more funny money to fund a few big ticket items (crossrail/motorways/infrastructure/public service projects) to stimulate growth. but then it’s not real growth only more debt.

It’s very possible we’re also in a ‘lost decade’ of stagnant growth. 3 years in already.
We overcooked it for the last 2 decades basically and kept nothing for a rainy day.
I think the best we can do is to accept this, do what we can to maintain growth but a bit less hysteria from the press and politicians and the markets would help IMO
It would help of course if the national debate accepted a few facts:
Exports are unlikely to be that great as the global situation is weak except in a few niches
The western population is getting older. Unless you want your parents to live in poverty, changes are necessary
Rampant consumerism that led us here was never sustainable. Consider accepting this and stop complaining we don’t have it anymore. Be grateful and spend more quality time with your kids…

From my perspective the major issue is theft and tax avoidance. I have one major Greek customer who demands that we pay him a rebate on sales at the end of the year. This amounts to 6% of our sales and must be paid to an account outside Greece. Thus the owners/directors are helping themselves to a tax-free salary of many hundreds of thousands of pounds, assuming they are demanding the same of all their suppliers, some of whom pay 10% and 12%. The directors are stealing from their own country by taking money out of the economy, avoiding paying tax and investing in places like London, which is where it is said that most of Greece’s money is already invested. It stinks but my hands are tied, if I refuse to do it I will be throwing away a very big piece of profitable business.

matter what peeples circumstances they always want more/ newer/ faster/ shinier

Not true, what a lot of people actually want is more time. It is crazy to me that we are working far longer hours now, especially as a family unit, than at any time before (at least since the end of WWII). IMO tackling working culture is one of the big things that could help employment and wealth distribution.

I gave up watching Eastenders because it was shit.

+1. I like the cut of your jib young man.

We overcooked it for the last 2 decades basically and kept nothing for a rainy day.

+100 Sums up my view of it perfectly.

The SLX crankset is 99e from RCZ bike shop in Luxemburg. 😉 Apart from that there are lots of valid points in the replies. I know we don’t have exactly the same issues as Japan but I think we should try to learn from their experience of stagnation. We can predict the challenges the future will bring and the earlier we change our infrastructure, lifestyle and business models to suit the better we will ride out the change.

If the Beeb can get women into B&Q with a succession of daytime DIY and housing shows I’m sure they can change people’s attitudes to energy use/production, bringing up kids, relationships, healthy living, transport, waste and a host of other issues that I fear their current programme mix is sabotaging. Bring back The Good Life!

Edukator – Member

2/ Like the Japanese twenty years ago we have reached the stage where everyone has all the “stuff” they really need. The stuff they buy is to replace old stuff at a rate that doesn’t stimulate growth.

Or new products- nobody buys a kindle to replace their old kindle yet. Same was true of walkmen, videos, mobile phones, microwaves…”Need” is a difficult concept and one not easily defined in terms of consumerism, we don’t need a fridge or a telly or an interior toilet but you’ll not find many houses round here without them.

It pains me to say that I’m in wholehearted agreement with edukator..

In my youth I would have advocated a fightclub scale sabotage of the entire broadcasting network..

I thought this was going to be an interesting thread..

Does anyone else think it’s a load of old todgers?

I thought this was going to be an interesting thread..

Does anyone else think it’s a load of old todgers?

I agree.

Energy is not a limiting factor in growth albeit in the past oil price spikes have contributed to recessions, most notably in the 1970s. Not the case now however.

As for the Japan analogy I agree we may be facing a lost decade but both will have been caused by the collapse of asset bubbles caused by financial silliness, too much cheap money. For reasons I cannot recall such finance induced recessions take much longer to resolve than ones caused by inflation / interest rates or indeed oil prices.

I really don’t think the media has anything to do with it.

I’ve skipped most the thread, but in reply to your question, no i wouldn’t vote for you.

I think growth is stagnating because the growth of the last 10 years has been built entirely on the availability of credit. Now that credit is no longer available (publicly the finance industry is being told to lend more…but at the same time being told to hold more capital reserves. so guess what, they aren’t lending!) we are no longer growing.

And as for the BBC being the lowest common denominator, that prize is found by pressing the button on your remote control with a “3” on it. Thats where the real garbage is. Since they lost the F1 I haven’t watched a single programme on ITV.