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1. deserter - Member

   who knows about currency and what do you think will happen to the pound short/medium/long ?

   I recently moved to Canada and bought a house, I don't know whether to grab my sterling now at a really low rate or get an interest only loan for a 6 months or so and then bring it over

   I know the elections are spanking it at the moment but what could realistically bring it back?

   I really appreciate the advice as I'm getting a bit stressed at the moment, as soon as we bought the house it dropped like a stone and I have to pay the deposit in a few weeks

   cheers
   Lee

   Posted 2 years ago #
2. TandemJeremy - Member

   Jeepers - I wouldn't like to bet a house on it!

   I think long term the pound will rise as it is at a lower point now than it has been for a long time and is actually quite good value now.

   I might be tempted to hedge my bets tho - bring half the money over now.

   Posted 2 years ago #
3. aracer - Member

   I confidently predict that in 6 months time it will be worth £1.

   Otherwise I agree with TJ - though there's no fundamental reason why it couldn't go lower than it is now, particularly if your timescale is only 6 months (by which point we could be in the throes of an indecisive hung parliament, which I'm sure the money traders will love).

   I've been trying to think of a good way to say this, but here goes - all you folks on here who like foreign holidays and imported goods really should be thinking about voting Tory (as much as that might stick in your throat), as I still don't see any way Gordon's going to win a majority, so the alternatives are a Tory majority or a hung parliament. We've already seen a small taste of what's likely to happen to the pound if the latter happens (actually, given the apparent likelihood of that now, buying foreign currency at current rates looks worth a flutter!)

   Posted 2 years ago #
4. deserter - Member

   no 6 month limit as such just putting a ball park in there, even if we pay the interest only for a year it will cost about $6,000

   at present I'm about $28,000 down from when it was $2-£1, its currently $1.53-£1

   but no point delaying the enevitable if people think the pound is sunk for years to come

   what really makes a £ worth $2 anyway?

   Posted 2 years ago #
5. aracer - Member

   The question you have to ask yourself: if you already had the amount of Canadian dollars you could get if you bought now, and totally ignoring where they came from, would you take a flutter on the currency exchange markets on the basis that the pound is currently cheap (ie buy pounds on the speculation that the pound is going to get stronger)? Would you borrow money at the interest rate you're paying on your mortgage in order to do so? If the answer to the latter is yes, then can you increase your current mortgage to buy pounds? If you think the latter suggestion is rather silly, then you kind of have your answer!

   Posted 2 years ago #
6. ex-pat - Member

   I know in Aussie terms it's well down.
   Looking back over a period of time it's been typically $2.30 or so to the pound, at the moment it's $1.63, which is a bit poo. People often hold out to $2.50 for 'a good exchange' but that's not so common.
   But that's AUD and not CAD (or whatever). Talk to someone at Moneycorp if you're talking house value amounts, they're very good there. I dealt with a chap called Alex Lawson and he was good, but think he's management now or something.
   Personally, I'd not exchange, but then if you need it then you have no choice do you...
   And if you're serious about Canada and are going to live there for ever then it's a no brainer, get the cash and move on.

   Posted 2 years ago #
7. rs - Member

   As somebody living in canada with some loan payments still left in the uk, the current rate is great, it costs me less and less in dollars each month to make those payments

   Posted 2 years ago #
8. deserter - Member

   not bothered about holding out for some fantastic rate just something a bit more reasonable, times have changed and when we moved over in Feb there was no rush to bring it over so I just said oh well I'll wait till we get the 2 dollar rate, best its been since then is 1.9, but something around 1.8 would be nice, just wondered if anyone was clued up about exchange rates in general and could give an informed guess and/or explain what will make it better/worse so I can keep an eye on it, as my luck would have it we will be at 2-1 the day after I bring it over

   Posted 2 years ago #
9. simons_nicolai-uk - Member

   Every forecast i've seen for the last couple of years has been wrong (and they were coming from 'city' people who claimed to have a real idea) so I'd be careful of taking too much advice from people on here.

   Moving all your assets to another currency right now must be a gutting experience so i don't envy you. Hedging by moving it over a period of time would limit your risk.

   We're pretty much in the toilet right now so it might be worth waiting until after the election to do anything - markets dislike uncertainty so whatever the result it should have some effect.

   Posted 2 years ago #
10. aracer - Member

    Hedging by moving it over a period of time would limit your risk.

    
    Best suggestion by far.

    We're pretty much in the toilet right now so it might be worth waiting until after the election to do anything - markets dislike uncertainty so whatever the result it should have some effect.

    
    As I mentioned, if we get a hung parliament (which looks pretty likely right now), that will mean even more uncertainty so the effect may not be the desired one!

    Posted 2 years ago #
11. kimbers - Member

    i guess it depends on the canadian economy and strength of their dollar

    economic outlooks for the euro and the us dollar are poor to sh!t depending on who you speak to
    so the £ may stay at a similar rate for quite a while
    if we get a hung parliament the pound may dip but when feckwit city gamblers realise that this wont cause the downfall of british society and probably lead to a sensible economic policy the pound may well pick up considerably

    and as pointed out earlier no one in the world hasa definite idea

    Posted 2 years ago #
12. teef - Member

    All paper currencies continuously devalue - just a different rates. The British Government are in the process of inflating all our debt away by money printing thus de-valuing the pound. Canada doesn't have so much debt and is also has many natural resources which retain their value - so their currency should also retain it's value. In short - get rid of your pounds as soon as you can before they become completely worthless.

    Posted 2 years ago #
13. epicyclo - Member

    The £ will stay low until interest rates rise enough to attract the big money boys back into sterling.

    At the moment it is giving derisive interest rates and there's not a lot of faith in the UK economy.

    Posted 2 years ago #
14. khani - Member

    we are in a recession
    we have almost no majer industry (thanks maggie)
    so the pound will be worth a bit less than a w**k now the makebelieve house prices/finance market has collapsed and if it falls much further we'll all be on euros after the next election anyway
    decisions decisions

    Posted 2 years ago #
15. b r - Member

    Only you can decide how much risk you want. Bring it over now, you know the rate and the interest cost if you don't. Do it later, you've paid out the interest and you may be better or worse off. Hedging just costs money.

    As an aside when I went to work in Germany a while back the rate was 2.70DM to £1.00, after 6 months it was 3.30DM to £1.00. I got paid in sterling, our rent was 'free' from this point

    Posted 2 years ago #
16. deserter - Member

    yeah the Canadian economy seems quite strong to be honest, but the pound seems to have took a spanking against all currencies

    Posted 2 years ago #
17. deserter - Member

    my big worry is if it all ends up in euro's

    Posted 2 years ago #
18. ahwiles - Member

    i'd love the euro!

    right now, i'm paid in pounds, if we swapped to euro's at the current rate i'd be much cheaper than any of my european counterparts.

    this would create an inflationary pressure, hey presto - pay rise, and mortgage paid off.

    Posted 2 years ago #
19. sweaman2 - Member

    I would echo ex-pat - Have you spoken to a professional broker?

    I'm also in Canada (Calgary) and when I came across last year I also used MoneyCorp. It was for a substantial sum and it looks like you're talking big numbers as well. For that sort of amount they can provide a "briefing note" which outlines some of the factors affecting which way they think the currency will move.

    Some of my savings are still in the UK and I'm suffering a simmilar dilemma but with less time pressure currently (but if it keeps on going down then I'll kick myself)

    One thing to also keep in mind is if the rates offered in 6 months by the banks will be same, better or worse. I've found it very difficult to get CDN credit and so rates offered keep on changing ever for credit cards.

    Posted 2 years ago #
20. aracer - Member

    and if it falls much further we'll all be on euros after the next election anyway

    
    No at all - they wouldn't have us with the current state of our economy (nor would it be a good thing for us - had we been in the Euro we'd have been unable to do some of the things we've done and would have been as stuffed as Greece).

    Posted 2 years ago #
21. deserter - Member

    Sweaman I'm also in Calgary, I used ukforex to bring over one sum, they send me a daily commentary but thats all, I know what you mean with the interest rates though as that could really stick the boot in, getting the credit for the mortgage and the demand loan have been easy really through hsbc, although they have gone high on the demand loan for obvious reasons

    I'm airing towards the lets see what happens for a while at the moment as it will take me a long time to save the amount already lost and losing a few more thousand isn't any more of a kick in the nads as whats already gone

    Posted 2 years ago #

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