I think you should be OK going from a proper shimano double to a single, as the bolts go direct into the crankarms iirc. Whereas on a triple, or double plus bash, the middle and outer use the same m&f bolts and are therefore longer to accommodate the thickness of two rings.
What model XT is it – should be a part number stamped on the inside.
More or less likely to drop the chain on a HT? Don’t know. On one hand the damping effect of the suspension might make the chain less likely to bounce. On the other, you have the constant chain growth and whatever-the-opposite-of-chain-growth-is on a FS that might make the chain less stable. Bottom line – try it and see.