If the question is how do we get people out their cars then autocar sharing may not be the answer.

I already have free bus travel and I don’t use them. Infrequent and slow. The one thing that might persuade me to not use the car for many journeys would be cheaper E-bikes with a realistic speed cutout for riding in urban traffic.

So if they removed the VAT from E-bikes and perhaps subsidised part of the cost like they do with EVs. Then made the assistance cutout at 22mph I’d buy one and replace a lot of my commuting trips with it.

https://road.cc/content/news/industry-calls-no-vat-bikes-subsidies-e-bikes-273329

I very much doubt we will see properly autonomous private cars in my lifetime.

Then we will have collectivley all failed to address the issue, if we continue to allow the ‘jordans’ of this world to drink drive and ‘snap-chat’ whilst in control of a 2 ton 400hp car without even having insurance.

Is she in jail yet? probably not.

Tesla might have some stats about whether drivers or the auto pilot screws up more in conditions in which the self-driving mode is appropriate but I can’t see them releasing uncensored data to anyone.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

Here you go.

probably overthinking the importance of Highland roads in the UK transport network as a whole tbh 😂

Except this weekend I stayed in city centre Sheffield and drove into the Peak – similar style of uber narrow road. I can’t see my friends buying a car which can only go towards city centre, but not the Peak, both equidistant from thier door.
And cities are for bikes, scooters, Twizzy’s, Ami’s etc…

If the question is how do we get people out their cars then autocar sharing may not be the answer.

I’m fairly confident that will continue not to be the question. The question here is ‘exactly who is pushing for fully automated/driverless cars’?

Who ever said it was tech companies I tend to agree I think they’re driving it far more than the safety lobby.

The question of whether we should be encouraging more car-dependency/environmental-planning to be car-centric is probably little to do with automation. It’s not really a question tbh (excepting minorities/a few activists/environmentalists)just inevitable.

Although I believe the tech-company and media focus on driverless cars (as opposed to multimodal infra/options) is now also driving/breathing new gusto into the conversation/‘inevitability’ of more and more cars – and so all focus/‘planning’ remains on cars and and so-forth (ad-infinatum)

Reminds me of a bygone Julian Cope lp ‘Autogeddon’ (inspired in turn by Heathcote Williams’ epic poem)

“Like a pig driving a cart-load of sausages. Driving my own conclusion.”

Who wants them?

Me, in 25 years time, when my eyesight, cognition and reactions aren’t good enough for driving, but I want to keep as much independence as possible and not rely on strangers, some of whom may be keen to fleece the elderly and vulnerable.

My mate who’s just had a mahoosive stroke aged 50 could do with them right now TBH.

My elderly relative could have done with them last week when I spent about 6 hours ferrying them to and from a specialist medical centre for some treatment. It was nice spending time together! But a lucky thing I’m retired!.

Who else?

At least 3 friends who lost their licences for a couple of years or more after having seizures.

All the under 17s who live out in the sticks and don’t want to cycle back from town in the dark in the winter.

The young woman two streets along who lost her sight in her teens.

The diehard city lover who never learned to drive and who now has a sick mother 2h drive away (but 3-4 h by public transport, and God help you if you have a load of stuff to carry).

Anyone getting a taxi who’s ever been taken the loooong way to their destination (this happened to me in *Canada* FFS).

if they can get it working it will be absolutely **** awesome.

I already have free bus travel and I don’t use them. Infrequent and slow.

Well that’s the point of driverless shared cars – they wouldn’t be.

Working in the motor industry, and seeing first-hand the reliability of the electronics in even fairly high-end vehicles, I wouldn’t go near one with a barge-pole. I do not have enough faith in any system developed in the foreseeable future to be safe enough for me to trust it with my, or anyone else’s life.
An example – the entire dashboard screen display in a relatively, ie less than two year old, Mercedes A-Class failing completely while being driven out of the workshop after minor bodywork repairs. The thought of that happening on a motorway in the dark, in poor weather really makes me feel queasy.

It’s for exactly that reason my car has analogue dials, along with knobs and an actual handbrake, because I’ve seen electronic handbrakes fail as well.

I had a read of the DfT’s Industrial Strategy publication:

‘Future of Mobility: Urban Strategy
Moving Britain Ahead’

…
2. Transport is becoming
increasingly automated
3.5 Improved sensing technology, computing power and software engineering are leading to increasing levels of automation in transport, across many different modes. In the US, self- driving technology company Waymo has accumulated over 10 million self- driven miles, in addition to 7 billion in simulation.

3.6 Total disclosed external investment in self-driving vehicle technology since 2010 stands at over $40 billion, with an almost nine-fold increase in average yearly investment from 2010-2013 to 2014-2018.26

£907 billion
Estimated global market for connected and self-driving vehicles in 2035

3.7 UK companies are at the forefront
of this field, drawing on our strength
in vehicle and software engineering. Several projects will deploy self-driving vehicles on road or public spaces in the UK by 2021.

3.8 These projects are large collaborations between businesses from different sectors and local transport authorities. The Government recently announced three projects to deliver six-month pilots of self-driving passenger services: one bus service in Edinburgh, and two on- demand taxi services in London.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/846593/future-of-mobility-strategy.pdf

For those excited about hovering/vtol/droning about the place:

As part of DfT’s developing Aviation Strategy and the Aerospace Sector Deal, we are considering the role
that new potential air mobility solutions, such as vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) concepts, could play in transforming aerial mobility and improving regional connectivity.
7.60 Priorities for 2019:
• Starting to deliver the Future Flight programme, which will receive up to £125 million from the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, subject to business case and match funded by industry, to aerospace and other manufacturers to research and engineer new technologies and infrastructure;

Technology is enabling new ways
of transporting people and goods.
In the air, drones are being used to address local needs, from supporting emergency services to improving the safety of infrastructure inspections. One report estimated that the global market for urban aviation, including commercial drones and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) services could be worth $1.5 trillion by 2040.

One would imagine by such a time that noise-cancelling headsets/earpods will be normal everyday safety-wear for those who dare step outdoors from the work/home/car/bubble?

BirdsongTM, Gentle ChatterTM and Ambient Nature Sounds TM will be readily available from Audible for all devices.

In other news – Tesco is banking in delivering ‘last minute forgotten recipes items’ and otjer goods by drone.

“We’re really interested to see how drones could be part of the solution to deliver to our customers on-demand small baskets,” she said, noting the small basket market in Britain was forecast to exceed 10 billion pounds ($13 billion) over the coming years.

“If our trial with Manna is successful, we really think there is an opportunity to reach many customers through our stores extending with a drones service,” she said.

Lewis said Tesco had four innovation priority areas: food & drink products and technology; data; robotics and automation; and packaging.

(shrieking) Manna from heaven? Although if the ads are to be believed, the whole experience will sound to us and neighbours as upbeat, gentle pseudo-Jamaican pop music rather than the air being permanently ripped asunder by angry giant plastic bees.

Nevermind the jump to fully automated vehicles, I can’t believe that we still don’t have automated speed limitting.

Working in the motor industry, and seeing first-hand the reliability of the electronics in even fairly high-end vehicles, I wouldn’t go near one with a barge-pole. I do not have enough faith in any system developed in the foreseeable future to be safe enough for me to trust it with my, or anyone else’s life.

I guess you don’t like getting on planes?

Like I said earlier, I don’t see the future being self driving privately owned cars but rather self driving buses of various sizes. The smaller ones will start to blur the line between taxi and bus, I reckon.

How throwing our bike on the roof and setting off for a tour of 7stanes will fit into that equation I don’t know but I don’t think the issue is unsolvable.

I guess you don’t like getting on planes?

Hardly a fair comparison really. Cars have to meet a price point, planes have to meet flight certification regulations. You could make cars as reliable as passenger jets, but no one could afford them.

I’ve got to say, I’m a sceptic that we’ll have a fully automated systems that covers the entire country, it’s probably not doable, and probably isn’t worth it. I can see a system that manages motorways and trunk roads, alongside a financial system that discourages short journeys by car, encourages bike/walking locally – free public transit etc etc.

How throwing our bike on the roof and setting off for a tour of 7stanes will fit into that equation I don’t know but I don’t think the issue is unsolvable

They could be great for a days ride. Chuck your bike in (you’ll be able to choose the type of vehicle to suit), get dropped off at the top of a hill. Ride all day, long a to b ride, get picked up wherever you end up, possibly a pub.

Hardly a fair comparison really. Cars have to meet a price point, planes have to meet flight certification regulations. You could make cars as reliable as passenger jets, but no one could afford them.

Which is why I said buses and bus/taxis-type things rather than privately owned vehicles were a more likely direction.

One of our semi frequent riding companions is part of the team assessing self driving vehicles and their software. He gets to see where manufacturing and governments are heading. According to him universal automated driverless transport is a very very long time away from reality.

As a tesla owner (renter) I agree with him. Automated driving on motorways is close. Back roads and towns, forget it.

ban cars from cities, let the leccy scooters and cargo bikes take over.

buses and bus/taxis-type things rather than privately owned vehicles were a more likely direction

Nope. The public like and want their own private transport. The idea that folks will go back to just using publicly owned/operated mass transport is fantasy.

An example – the entire dashboard screen display in a relatively, ie less than two year old, Mercedes A-Class failing completely while being driven out of the workshop after minor bodywork repairs.

The dash displays aren’t made to the same specification that the self driving stuff will have to be. There will be legislation about this. The motoring public won’t accept mass casualties any more than you will. Why would they? You think we’re all going to get in cars that fail and kill us? A lot has been written about this. Self driving cars will have to be significantly more reliable than human drivers to be accepted on a psychological level.

I’m a sceptic that we’ll have a fully automated systems that covers the entire country, it’s probably not doable, and probably isn’t worth it.

I think we will eventually. It’ll be AI based, so it will learn how to drive along a windy country road the same way that we do.

ban cars from cities, let the leccy scooters and cargo bikes take over.

Though this has side effects. Former prime retail streets in Glasgow are now scruffy low rent down at heel eyesores. I suspect the rerason is people choosing to drive to peripheral shopping centres with easy access and free parking rather than struggle to find a parking space and pay through the nose for it.

Ride all day, long a to b ride, get picked up wherever you end up, possibly a pub.

I’m sold on that alone!!
I have 13 years til i retire, my retirement plans include no car, and an electric bike with rack/panniers/trailer, or possibly a cargo bike. And a collie.
Haven’t decided on whether to go normal bike with panniers or cargo or trailer.
Will need to do everything a retired guy ‘needs’ a car for, apart from long journeys when I’ll have time to use a bus.

Nope. The public like and want their own private transport. The idea that folks will go back to just using publicly owned/operated mass transport is fantasy.

As has been said, to build a self-driving system robust enough is going to be expensive, most likely too expensive for private car ownership for the vast majority of the population.

And like I said, public transport in an era of self driving buses/taxis is going to look very different from what it looks like today. Why would you stick to the current model of buses that can carry 50-100 passengers with schedules that are rigidly set? When you take away the reliance on drivers you can match the buses available to the demand. There are any number of ways to do this.

The problem is that people have become so used to the way things function now that they literally can’t even imagine another way.

And I think private vehicle ownership will still be a thing. It’s just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.

 It’s just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.

I’d bet money they won’t be.

The problem is that people have become so used to the way things function now that they literally can’t even imagine another way.

It wasn’t that long ago that most people hadn’t been out of their own county let alone country. The ability of individuals to go wherever at whatever time they want; independently, is baked in, there’s no going back, and I’d imagine most folks aren’t going to be content to have to “request” a vehicle with all the data and privacy issues that that raises, not to mention the time delay, the wrong vehicles the mischarging and all all the other 101 issues that having to book a car from a pool is going to cause.

Our second car is a zip-car (car club thing).

If I didn’t have to walk the 20 mins to where it’s parked, I’d actually use it more, which is probably a bad thing…

As a rule, it’s generally fueled and clean as you get fined if you leave it otherwise.

Ride all day, long a to b ride, get picked up wherever you end up, possibly a pub.

I think lots of people are so fixed in the driving mindset that they can’t see simple advantages of driverless cars – even if it’s just the ability to have a few pints and then get driven home. Or being able to relax and not have to concentrate on their commute.

I use my local rail network in the way described above, it’s great (especially on big tailwind days)! This would be even better.

As has been said, to build a self-driving system robust enough is going to be expensive, most likely too expensive for private car ownership for the vast majority of the population.

I still can’t figure out how people afford to buy new (or even secondhand) cars outright at the moment. They seem prohibitively expensive.

As has been said, to build a self-driving system robust enough is going to be expensive, most likely too expensive for private car ownership for the vast majority of the population.

IIRC the $2mil price point is where automatic landing systems get fitted to aircraft, and autopilot is a far easier problem to solve than automatic driving, obviously cars are currently higher volume and lower unit cost but whether that all slots together to make an affordable self driving system, my money is on ‘not for a very long time’.

The dash displays aren’t made to the same specification that the self driving stuff will have to be.

Yeah, about that. My guess is the display will form part of the self driving system. You need some way to tell what the system is doing, without that control and feedback the system would by definition have to stop operation. And the display has to be as available / reliable as the system itself. Potentially slightly less if the display can reboot and recover gracefully, independent of the main system.

I’ll bet that within 20 years people moving around the country in 2 tonne boxes that they own will be no longer.

the position we are in now is unsustainable and the system is creaking at the seams. In the future the era of personal cars will seem very quaint indeed. Its a question of resources. There is not enough

Self driving cars will have to be significantly more reliable than human drivers to be accepted on a psychological level.

Yes, they will be held to a much higher account. What is the death toll these days in the UK for example, ~2,000. If all cars were driverless what would the acceptable number be. I would say 1,000 would be good going but can’t imagine that being good for the critics.

Me, in 25 years time, when my eyesight, cognition and reactions aren’t good enough for driving, but I want to keep as much independence as possible and not rely on strangers, some of whom may be keen to fleece the elderly and vulnerable.

My mate who’s just had a mahoosive stroke aged 50 could do with them right now TBH.

Well, sadly you still won’t be able to safely monitor and be responsible for an autonomous car.

I guess you don’t like getting on planes?

The number of sensors and processing for an autopilot are insignificant compared to what is required for safe self-driving cars. Aeroplanes are generally using very tried and tested (read old) processing technology. They do go wrong from time to time, but you can work around that.

I’ve had my emergency braking in my car react to a swarm of flies and tell me I’m crashing. No way would I trust anyone’s life with autonomous cars on normal roads!! I do use adaptive cruise on major roads/motorways, but still have to steer. Not exactly a chore.

I couldn’t think of anything more depressing than full automation, but I suppose I’m a dinosaur; I still like my ICE manual.

Self driving cars will have to be significantly more reliable than human drivers to be accepted on a psychological level.

^^^
Not a high bar.

Re comments about trusting the electronics – you want to take a look at the increasingly raddled plate of gray salty blancmange that’s currently responsible for my expert driving.

The number of sensors and processing for an autopilot are insignificant compared to what is required for safe self-driving cars. Aeroplanes are generally using very tried and tested (read old) processing technology. They do go wrong from time to time, but you can work around that.

It’s not sci-fi, it’s happening now.

In my town we have Level 4 autonomous buses, with 21 seats plus standing room, picking up and dropping off passengers and, so far, managing to not kill anyone in the process.

In my town we have Level 4 autonomous buses, with 21 seats plus standing room, picking up and dropping off passengers and, so far, managing to not kill anyone in the process.

Were there any flies though? They might have made them stop momentarily.

They might have made them stop momentarily.

If that ever happens, you can be sure it’ll make international news.

Unlike the **** of a bus driver who overtook me with my daughter in the trailer and then pulled into the bus stop before his back wheel had even cleared my front wheel forcing me to jam on the brakes so as not to end up in the kerb or under the wheels.

That didn’t even make the local news.

And I think private vehicle ownership will still be a thing. It’s just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.

Disagree strongly. AFAIK only the Netherlands fought the tide early enough for a sea change (sic,sic!) in modal transport infrastructure and when much of Holland is lost to sea-levels (because AGW) we’ll all continue with the US model because our culture has an extra half a decade of baked-in carbrain and cartown.

In the last 20 years every new residential and retail development I see cropping up around my local town is sort of semi-rural, built on old farmland and none of these developments have any decent infrastructure whatsoever for cycling or velomobiles etc. We live in a town 8 miles from a city and there has
never been any interest or demand or action towards cycling infrastructure between city and town, let alone between city/town and the new rushed-through semi-rural housing estates/‘Boris Boxes’.

It’s cars all the way down, I’m afraid.

* Although I believe Holland currently has more private vehicles (cars) per capita than the UK, it’s just that they use/d them very differently. The rest of the world is playing full-speed catchup with the US model while we are set to a gentle boil-over.

No crystal ball but I err on pessimistic/human nature

Disagree strongly

It depends.

The issue is that the assumption is that the political will isn’t there to effectively legislate away private car ownership*.

I don’t see many people arguing for private car ownership on principle. Most are arguing based on whether it is possible for a machine to drive a car or not.

I honestly don’t think the will is there to keep private car ownership as being a borderline ‘human right’ if there is even a halfway decent alternative.

*Obviously private car ownership won’t be outlawed outright anymore than private plane ownership has been outlawed. It’ll just be made so difficult that only the truly committed will bother doing so.

I’ll bet that within 20 years people moving around the country in 2 tonne boxes that they own will be no longer.

Well, technically, we’re already there with lease agreements, but if you mean that in 20 years, no one will have their own private car/conveyance, I think you’re going to be VERY disappointed.

Well, technically, we’re already there with lease agreements, but if you mean that in 20 years, no one will have their own private car/conveyance, I think you’re going to be VERY disappointed.

I think there is going to be a tipping point where owning a car just makes no sense except in a few cases. At that point I reckon the change will take less than a decade.

When exactly that will happen is another matter. Make no mistake, it’ll result in a complete reshaping of society. If not on the same scale as the internet did then even greater, I would say.

It’s just that the vehicles will be bikes/ebikes/velomobiles with trailers when needed.

In a decade? Do you see any evidence of this? I’m still generally the only bike tied up outside of Lidl (or Waitrose or Morrisons) and I have to take a few cheeky routes to not get squished. This has been the same for the last 40 years of my life, and it was the same last week as well as next week. I long ago knew that I will die before it happens, having spent a life as a car-dodging weirdo carrying stuff on a bicycle looking for a safe route.

So if you think the British people (and planners) are going to change their entire culture and infrastructure in less than a decade and that cars parked outside the supermarkets and schools and off-licenses are going to be largely replaced with bicycles and trailers etc then you are at least my favourite fantasist! Now, I’m off to beat the school rush…🚴‍♂️

I honestly don’t think the will is there to keep private car ownership as being a borderline ‘human right’ if there is even a halfway decent alternative.

I’d agree. Since early 2020, our car averages 250 miles a month and I periodically cost it up against Car Club type stuff. Even with depreciation, servicing, tax and insurance, it’s STILL cheaper (and more convenient) to keep our car, even just for a monthly round trip to see the parents. (See also: trains)

If a shared / car club type option was cheaper I’d seriously consider ditching ours, despite it being less convenient. But we’re not there yet.

If the question is how do we get people out their cars then autocar sharing may not be the answer.

I’m fairly confident that will continue not to be the question. The question here is ‘exactly who is pushing for fully automated/driverless cars’?

Who ever said it was tech companies I tend to agree I think they’re driving it far more than the safety lobby.

Ditto, I think I used the phrase “technology will save us all” to describe the mindset, and it is a bit of a problem the world has generally. The ‘tech-Bros’ and Musks of this world are keen on commercialising cool ideas and concepts. but lets be honest, they tend not to address the more mundane or more critical real problems the world faces.

The core need to be addressed is transport in a world where most people’s lives are more geographically scattered, Environmental damage (a reasonable chunk from the last couple of hundred years of transport development) is now a pressing issue and incomes are likely to be under pressure for the next few years.

Will/Can SDV be affordable? (Including any underpinning infrastructure, bought and/or rented, used as public or privately owned transport, etc)
Will/Can SDV reduce the environmental impacts of personal transport? Will/Can they be at least as safe as the conventionally operated vehicles they would replace?

Unless you can answer yes to all of the above, then SDV are really just another “cool idea” that Millionaire/Billionaire Tech-Bros like but haven’t thought through fully… And we still have food banks in first world countries…

 In the future the era of personal cars will seem very quaint indeed

We’ve built our housing stock largely on car use. It may look different from the centre of Edinburgh, but places like say Brackley in Northamptonshire (and satellite towns like it up and down the country) only really work because of personal car use. I doubt it’s a good plan to knock down perfectly good houses and build them somewhere else to satisfy the demands of the self-drive car lobby.

Remove pollution, and most folks would be pleased to just carry on exactly as they are now.

In a decade? Do you see any evidence of this? I’m still generally the only bike tied up outside of Lidl (or Waitrose or Morrisons) and I have to take a few cheeky routes to not get squished. This has been the same for the last 40 years of my life, and it was the same last week as well as next week. I long ago knew that I will die before it happens, having spent a life as a car-dodging weirdo carrying stuff on a bicycle looking for a safe route.

If you think about the internet, how much of a change in society was there between 2000 and 2010?

With smart phones, how ubiquitous did they become between 2007 and 2017. Even my parents have them now because it’s just so much less hassle to have them not.

Self driving cars are probably at the ‘internet in 1995’ stage at the moment. People can’t see how it will change the world because what use is a more efficient way of looking at porn? Everyone is focusing on us all owning our own self driving car and basically society continuing as before but with robots doing the driving instead of humans because that’s all anyone has ever known.

Having a public transport system that can be changed and scaled instantaneously is going to completely upend society. Once people aren’t afraid to get on a bike more and more people are going to try it and realise that you can actually go quite a long way on two wheels and 2 tons of metal isn’t required for every journey.

Like I said, in my town we now have 21 seat plus standing room level 4 autonomous buses picking up and dropping off passengers. There’s no guarantee that this is the tipping point but once you have a successful self driving bus route I suspect you’re going to see more and more.