Reading the Guardian article, all I could find was this quote from the epidemiologist chap:

“There were no outbreaks linked to public beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach, ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge.”

You’re right though, I’d have expected local case rates among those in hospitality etc serving the beachgoers to rise, and they didn’t, which is great.

But if people who go to the beach return to hundreds of different towns after the day, get ill a week later, no-where is going to suddenly shoot up in terms of rates, and it is always going to be tough to point the finger at the beach trip as a source.

Realistically, the risk of an outbreak has to be minimal compared with an indoor venue – you might infect another person on the beach towel next door over the course of few hours, but the chance of delivering sufficient viral dose to multiple people has to be extremely low. The main risk has to be shared facilities, not the beach itself, and in preparation for a summer where beaches have to be open for the public, we should be investing in ways to boost cleanliness – more toilets, more cleaning teams.

You’re right though, I’d have expected local case rates among those in hospitality etc serving the beachgoers to rise, and they didn’t, which is great.

expect that didn’t really happen either i remember there was a stat kicking around about infection rates in hospitality and it was crazy low only a few percent. Feel like the bulk of transmission has to have always been around people mixing at home. Even the BLM protests in the summer didn’t create a significant increase in transmission

Feel like the bulk of transmission has to have always been around people mixing at home.Even the BLM protests in the summer didn’t create a significant increase in transmission

Absolutely – and that’s also the easiest to gather evidence for.

The risk from crowd protests like BLM is always harder to quantify – there was a decent mask adherence that I saw, a lot of younger participants, so less transmission maybe, and more asymptomatic/less severe illness.

It’s always tough when a group of people from different places gather for a few hours, but then disappear off to their separate communities. You’re just not going to register an outbreak in the same way.

It’s the old absence of evidence not evidence of absence thing.

The main risk has to be shared facilities, not the beach itself, and in preparation for a summer where beaches have to be open for the public, we should be investing in ways to boost cleanliness – more toilets, more cleaning teams.

But those things weren’t in place last summer, and it made no difference to the infection rates. Most infections occur indoors, remember; lock down is primarily about smoothing the impact on healthcare services, reducing the infection rate was a secondary (albeit welcome) side effect.

Indeed… a year ago, when we knew far less, and had far fewer tools to use… the measures were aimed at making sure the fire fighters could get to all the worst of the fires… that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t now be trying to avoid more fires… as we roll out free fire extinguishers to the entire adult population.

If outdoor transmission is low risk (not zero risk) it makes complete sense to “open up” the out doors as much as possible through the rest of the year, once prevalence is low enough, as a much needed release valve.

Yes I agree – based on what I see on social media people are getting highly frustrated in Wales with such minimal changes being announced today despite numbers being lower than previously stated thresholds. Seems like just letting people drive to beauty spots would be an easy win.

Data confirming a lack of a Covid spike even within the communities inundated last summer has been around for a few months now, pretty sure there was a BBC reality check on it. Outdoor infection risk has always been thought to be low, assuming basic social distancing, which aerial photos indicated was being done.

All the beach/BLM publicity last year was just a very effective smokescreen for the failures of track and trace, and set the tone of blaming the public for the government’s failures as the second wave unfolded.

The public are not responsible for nearly 120,000 Covid deaths, in the same way that Good Old Boris is not responsible for our successful vaccine delivery system.

Everyone needs reminding of that. Constantly.

receiving more than their salary to sit on their arse on the PlayStation for two weeks

Or alternatively finishing up in ITU with a tube into their airway for 10 days or more, then having a FaceTime call with their families shortly before the machines are turned off and the tubes removed for them to die.

Sitting on their arse playing video games affects neither the quality of your nor my lives. £500 to get drones away from the workplace seems a fair exchange. We’re not all wired the same and to expect everyone to be the same is unrealistic and a bit creepy too.

This is what worries me about the months ahead… if we stick to the idea that getting on top of the death rate is enough. It is essential, and bloody welcome, but it should not be the only thing informing policy and behaviour…

Watch the full film here: https://t.co/XnuZMsD3Cb

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) February 19, 2021

@TiRed … I asked a while back of you know how the living ill, and those dying well after 28 days, are being counted? Seen any studies? ONS doing anything?

I asked a while back of you know how the living ill, and those dying well after 28 days, are being counted?

Stats are published for death within 28 days of a positive test, but also death can be mentioned on the certificate at anytime thereafter. The headline figure has been the first, but the ONS data is looking at both.

the following is coded for analysis:
COVID-19 (U07.1, U07.2)
Deaths involving COVID-19 (any mention on the death certificate)
of which, deaths due to COVID-19 (underlying cause)

Re:Beaches.

We haven’t seen any cases of beach transmission over here, although errr…. we do have a bit more UV than you.

I agree that stopping people from going to the beach is actually about stopping people from going to beach towns/villages, and making a point about social distancing

It’s wonderful news for some families that they will be able to visit family members in care homes.

🤞

It’s wonderful news for some families that they will be able to visit family members in care homes.

It is, but I’d be a lot happier if this wonderful news was announced on Monday rather than dribbled out via leaks over the weekend so they can be tested out

Agreed but that’s just how it’s done nowadays. It’s good news for some families, let’s not dilute  that.

Too late for mine though unfortunately. The MIL gave up at the end of December due to the isolation even within the home. Every hospital visit required another 10 days solitary and each one sapped her will and vitality.

Our government are guilty of geronticide and I hope that we can hold them to account in the near future.

Our government are guilty of geronticide and I hope that we can hold them to account in the near future.

To be fair, their murderous carelessness hasn’t just killed the elderly.

Here comes summer!

BREAKING: All adults in UK to be offered vaccine two months earlier than planned https://t.co/5yXIL1wjWk

— Metro (@MetroUK) February 20, 2021

Here comes summer!

In what way? Other than the relentless passage of time.

Don’t take up poetry, or song writing, please.

Looks like I’ve got a busy few months then!💉💉

Not if your syringes are filled with blood you’re not!

That’s the super secret Bill Gates conspiracy world domination plan slipping through the matrix filter. They need to take blood out to fit the microchips in.

Obvs

It’s not blood, it’s Tizer

Here comes summer!

I have a ten quid bet with my partner i wont get a vaccine this year… im so conflicted i want my tenner!

Mmm… Tizer.

So, now the plan is for most adults to be vaccinated by the summer (and all before we get to the school summer holidays in England) will tomorrow’s rollback plan take that into account? I’m thinking hospitality and UK tourism… will they be given the nod that Summer is go… with the caveat that they will be kept mostly closed ‘till then?

Jnr turns 18 in July – be handy if he got jabbed before uni 🤞

With the ongoing children testing of vaccines I think we will vaccinate all secondary kids before next school year, then an autumn campaign of mutation boosters.

With the latest news it’s a bit bizarre my shift was cancelled today at Brighton due lack of bookings. My Thursday shift we only had 400, with a 3000 capacity.
If they want to accelerate they need to :
1. Sort the vaccine supply certainty and communicate it with more time to book in patients,
2. Sort out the staff recruitment issues.
3. Better communication/planning between NHS & St John Ambulance in terms of getting volunteers into more centres. We can only work where the NHS invite us in and PHE authorise it.

Hmm, just been Googling when I might get the vaccine, even at 49 (50 in May) predictions still seem to be the Autumn which is somewhat at odds with Boris’s latest bollocks.

That’s your second jab isn’t it? I think he’ll be referring to the 1st. Which sounds better as a headline.

Edit, just checked mine and my second jab is “forecast” to be August. I’m 43, Scotland

I’d suggest The predictors haven’t caught up with Boris’ latest promises.

The predictors go on current rate (and current uptake), not by whatever future plans there are.
Based on what Dan says, we have the staff and centres, do we have the vaccine and the organisation to achieve it?

“There were no outbreaks linked to public beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach, ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge.”

Probably a super-naive question, but how do you actually catch Covid (or any virus, I suppose)? Is it sufficient to be unlucky and inhale a single particle (what’s the right expression?) of virus, or do you have to inhale quite a few at more or less the same time?

If it’s the former, then if you stay long enough on the beach, it’s gonna happen. But in the second case, it is likely to be safe outside barring very bad luck.

Any comments from people with real knowledge ? 🙂

The moderna vaccine comes online in April. We’ve got a lot of AZ & Pfizer ordered, so hopefully. A few more fridge temp vaccines coming soon too.

I believe you need a certain load to actually catch it.

Nobody (sensible) has said you CANT catch it outdoors, but the risks are hugely reduced so as to not be a significant factor.

I believe you need a certain load to actually catch it.

Nobody (sensible) has said you CANT catch it outdoors, but the risks are hugely reduced so as to not be a significant factor.

That’s been my understanding from what I’ve read on here and elsewhere. The viral load possibly affects how badly ill you might get? Do the new variants require less load to infect you?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2268014-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus/

Hmmm, not qualified to comment but anybody that is, please do!

Ok just seen that New Scientist has published an explainer, so panic over!

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2268379-two-coronavirus-variants-have-merged-heres-what-you-need-to-know/

My understanding is that the current mutant strains bind easier at the ACE2 receptors, so less virus is required for you to catch it. This also explains it having a greater spread in kids who have less ACE 2 receptors prior to puberty.

William haig calling for restrictions to be lifted after the over 50s have been vaccinated. Spoken like a 59 year-old man who will have had his jab by then…

Tosser..

On sat I received my vaccination appointment for later this week, galloway, 48yrs old and no health issues apart from spms, to be honest I could name loads of folk who should get the vaccination before me as I don’t leave the house and see no-one so if I could, id give it to someone who needs it.

You’ve been given it for a reason. Don’t worry about it.