This is the route which would reduce deaths the most.

It would protect those at most risk, but allow the rest of society to function.

This is becoming the route that a few more people in the Scientific world are suggesting.

I’m sure the economists like it too, most of the people who would be asked to shield are Elderly and not employed.

I guess the problem for the Tories is a political one, their voter base is older, and asking (or in Dail Mail speak, banning) 12 million people in the UK over-65 to stay indoors for an unknown amount of time, isn’t exactly a vote winner.

It would be my preferred route out of this, as long as the Science backs it up.

Been guaranteed since early last week. As soon as the idea was mooted the WAG have basically saying to Westminster “If you won’t enact this and follow the science then we will do it anyway.” They gave Boris and Co a chance to lead rather than follow and he blew it, as usual.

The problem with people (like Boris) with a bunker mentality is they’re fear everything is a trap. As soon as someone Boris considers an enemy suggests something, he’ll disagree to avoid looking like he’s not in charge.

It will be his undoing.

I guess the problem for the Tories is a political one, their voter base is older, and asking (or in Dail Mail speak, banning) 12 million people in the UK over-65 to stay indoors for an unknown amount of time, isn’t exactly a vote winner

No, but if a large proportion of them arnt around at the next election, thats not going to help with votes either…

So how does the Welsh support package compare to Boris’ latest offering for Tier 3?

The problem with people (like Boris) with a bunker mentality is they’re fear everything is a trap. As soon as someone Boris considers an enemy suggests something, he’ll disagree to avoid looking like he’s not in charge.

It will be his undoing.

Absolutely. He’s got his minions trying to undermine the Welsh lockdown already. From The Guardian:

The Tory leader in Wales, Paul Davies, said: “Sadly, the first minster has failed to get public support for this second Wales-wide lockdown, failing to be open and transparent about the evidence to justify this lockdown and what his actions will entail for the future.

“The Welsh government also has to be honest that this road they are taking us down is committing Wales to rolling Wales-wide lockdowns. This is not a two-week break to solve the pandemic, it is likely that we will see regular lockdowns across the rest of the year.

Completely goes against what people I’ve spoken to have said. Everyone seems completely fine with enduring 2-3 weeks of restrictions if it helps protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and ultimately saves lives. This is action with a clear purpose and people are responding to that positively.

The problem with people (like Boris) with a bunker mentality is they’re fear everything is a trap. As soon as someone Boris considers an enemy suggests something, he’ll disagree to avoid looking like he’s not in charge.

It will be his undoing.

There’s also the flipside effect where a management consultant, who Boris and those within the bunker regard as having the wisdom of the gods, tell them something then they automatically believe it, without maybe questioning the motivations of the organisation presently being paid several squillion pounds of public money on a rolling basis, with no clauses in place re: deliverables

It would protect those at most risk, but allow the rest of society to function.

It would kill thousands and cripple large parts of our society, especially in health care. If I was a hospital worker, and we took the misguided path of letting this virus get out of control, but locking away the identified vulnerable, I think I’d be calling for strike action to draw attention to the risk we as a society are willing to pass on to them so that we can “function” more normally.

This is becoming the route that a few more people in the Scientific world are suggesting.

Very few. Unless you’re referring to the micky mouse letter (signed by Micky Mouse and his friends) that the media got unduly excited about last week.

We need to shield the identified vulnerable and keep transmission rates down, to protect lives and function as a society.

binners
Full Member

Thats a full 2 week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown in Wales then

Sounds like it really is a full lockdown too.

It’s really not a full lockdown. Just slightly lockier down than the non-lockdown elsewhere.

Actually, have to say I feel like the Scottish government has made a pretty gigantic ****up with this, they’re pitching the current restrctions as a “reset” when it’s not got any chance of doing that. It’ll move things in the right direction but “reset” “circuit breaker” etc are all terms you can’t just throw about, because if you use them once and don’t get the results that people expect, you’re screwed.

I think the scottish measures are likely to achieve what the scottish government wants them to, and calling it a reset might help with that, but it’s using up a one-use tool along the way. I don’t get it, it’s exactly the sort of mistake they’ve seen others do and have mostly avoided.

We need to shield the identified vulnerable and keep transmission rates down, to protect lives and function as a society.

Completely agree with you. It needs to be a combination of the two.

But whats the end game to this?
Normal* isnt going to come back for at least 18 months.
6 Months to have a vaccine
6 months to manufacture and vaccinate
6 months to see if its worked

Lockdown the whole country for that amount of time?

Wales will be a test case for this approach, so we’ll see what affect it has in the next 3 weeks.

*life as it was in 2019

Since mid-September, with the exception of 70+ and Year12 to 24, they have all been growing exponentially with a uniform doubling time. One can debate why there was initial growth in the Year2 youngest group, then a leveling off and subsequent rise. It’s possible they were catching it from older siblings. Or not.

Just decided to take my temp to get a baseline for future reference….35.7!

That can’t be right can it? Unless I’m a lizard?

Mine (and my daughters) are usually 35.6, so I just take that as a reference point – so anything above 36 I’d count as feverish for her. Oddly didn’t seem to matter whether it was an ear one or under the tongue

But whats the end game to this?

Every time the government puts off the action required, it increases the eventual action that will be required. A more drastic “end game” is avoidable by early pre-emptive action. Act late, act harder, for longer.

I have no idea what the government sees as the end game. React and wait? Wait and react?

Temperature / fever. 36.9 is the average normal temperature. You can only get an accurate reading with an internal thermometer 🙂 ( as ear thermometers are often badly used and skin thermometers innacurate in that your skin can be cooler than your core)
Here we do not consider anything below 38 as a fever as people can run slightly warmer or cooler and you also get slight variations depending on things like ambient temperature or if you have been exercising

Personally anything below 38 I would not be concerned unless you have other symptoms

Normal* isnt going to come back for at least 18 months.
6 Months to have a vaccine
6 months to manufacture and vaccinate
6 months to see if its worked

I think that’s a bit pessimistic.

I get a little insight as my Wife will be part of the mass vaccination team when it’s ready, it’s currently gearing up .

I’m sure when it starts the papers will complain, sell the unusual and tragic as the norm and lots and lots of people will cry they’re being left to fend for themselves because they won’t be getting it in the first, second, third or even forth phase – but the speed of deployment (relative to the scale of the job) will be jaw-dropping.

P-Jay, I hang on to your information these days, always good to hear.

As Patrick Vallance dryly stated a while back “got to have a vaccine first”. I hope the AZ one works. I’m not expecting sterile immunity, but evidence of a solid antibody response and some protection would be a start. Plenty of others coming too. But I do believe that 18mo is a reasonable timeframe.

Will widespread vaccination stop Covid altogether? What will the world look like ‘post jab’?

I’ll take our NHS staff not be knocked out by the virus as the medium term win… the “big” picture for vaccines can come later.

No. In a worst-case scenario I expect it will boost protective immunity leading to a reduced severity of infection. In a best case scenario, sterile protective immunity from infection but probably waning over time. Protection for the immunocompromised (who can’t be vaccinated easily) will come from antibodies and perhaps herd immunity if a sterile vaccine is produced with high protection for others. Frequency of vaccination is of course unknown. Annual would be my guess, given together with influenza. It won’t be eradicated as per the other four seasonal coronaviruses, but the young will grow old and carry some degree of past exposure with them. I’m optimistic, especially given the efforts and resource thrown at this. The timescale is breathtaking.

Anagallis posted this two days ago.

anagallis_arvensis
Free Member

150 deaths today, 80 a week ago!

Today’s numbers (modulo random Excel bugs in PHE’s reporting) are 80, and 67 yesterday (weekends always low though). 7 day moving average has been flat the last day or two.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Of course, it’s entirely possible that it will pick up again.

Will widespread vaccination stop Covid altogether? What will the world look like ‘post jab’?

I don’t think any experts have made too many promises about it.

As I understand it, there are already multiple variations of Covid19, but so far the vaccines have been effective on all of them.

In theory if we’re able to vaccinate 70% or so of the population we can achieve heard immunity and it will be eradicated in time. They would really love to achieve this in the UK by Sept 21 to avoid another winter surge.

This is all a best case though. The vaccine may not provide life-long protection, in fact it probably won’t, so people may need boosters, that may be in the form of an annual mass vaccination like flu, or a travel vaccine depending on how it’s handled globally.

Human nature being what it is, a lot of the goodwill talk of March is largely gone, I suspect nations will use their trade might to hoard vaccines, especially if Trump is re-elected, although pfizer has said they won’t be applying for emergency approval of their vaccine before the 3rd week in November… interesting timing… they’ve also already produces hundreds of thousands of doses in preparation, claiming they could produce as many as 100m doses by the end of the year and 1.3bn next year.

If we vaccinate the world it may be totally eradicated, but is there more money in letting it spread throughout the developing world so you can keep selling an annual vaccine?

Good mapping site from ICL

Today’s numbers (modulo random Excel bugs in PHE’s reporting) are 80, and 67 yesterday (weekends always low though). 7 day moving average has been flat the last day or two.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Of course, it’s entirely possible that it will pick up again.

There is a repeatable daily pattern in the numbers due to reporting logistics.

Monday is always low.

Last Monday was 50 deaths so we have a 60% increase at 80 this Monday.

If that 60% increase follows through to tomorrow’s deaths where we had 143 last Tuesday (Tuesday is always high), We could sadly pass the 200 deaths in a day milestone. (229 tomorrow based on a 60% increase)

You can’t really infer much looking at day to day trends.

I like it when TiRed says he’s optimistic. Gives me real hope for the future. Had my ‘ordinary’ flu jab last week at a ‘drive through’ jab clinic! took 3 mins from the time I drove in, to driving out. Brilliant set up.

Ireland gone back into almost full lock down, Level 5 in their system (the worst), all non essential retail to close, people only allowed 5km from home but schools to remain open.

This is a good read:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/10/why-do-some-find-economicshealth-trade.html

Not citing it as “evidence” for anything, but it uses a good analogy for people who normally have more interest in economics that epidemics.

It’s getting heavy here in Spain too, although new cases/100k pop are similar to UK and France, countrywide.

Thought it was interesting how direct contact is handled differently in UK & Spain.

On Fri. I was in direct contact with a positive case. T&T rang me Sunday, sent me for a test, negative.

Same day, receptionist in Sis’ work was also in contact with a negative. Will be tested tomorrow.

Difference is, even though I’m negative I need to self isolate for 10 days from day of contact, and then will need a 2nd negative test and a GP appt. who will then sign me off.

Sis’ colleague can go back on Tuesday if she tests -ve.

I’ll take our NHS staff not be knocked out by the virus as the medium term win… the “big” picture for vaccines can come later.

This has to be the first goal. If we can keep the NHS from falling over then anyone who does get ill from contracting the virus has a good chance of surviving and any complications afterwards can be dealt with. If not then deaths are going to go through the roof.

I thought new cases and admissions were coming down in Spain now Bob? Still high, but falling?

Edit: just looked, new cases still rising, but rising more slowly, far from ideal

There is a repeatable daily pattern in the numbers due to reporting logistics.

Monday is always low.

Last Monday was 50 deaths so we have a 60% increase at 80 this Monday

This, and hosputal admission just shy of 1000

I like it when TiRed says he’s optimistic

So do I, though his optimistic outcome is still several painful months away, and will not be the same as pre Covid normality. I appreciate his honesty as much as his brilliant information on here. He should get an award….

@kelvin Wasn’t the Mickey Mouse letter also signed by an SQL injection?

Do we have a viable vaccine? Just been talking to friends who are part of the planning for mass vaccination centres, with very short timescales involved and unbelievable scales. Would have thought this was a bit early unless we are actually making informed planning about something during this mess.

I thought new cases and admissions were coming down in Spain now Bob? Still high, but falling?

@kelvin yep, down in Madrid (-30% over 14 days) but some communities rising (here in País Vasco +120%).

Do we have a viable vaccine? Just been talking to friends who are part of the planning for mass vaccination centres, with very short timescales involved and unbelievable scales. Would have thought this was a bit early unless we are actually making informed planning about something during this mess.

Hopefully they are ahead on this part but I have a lingering doubt that they will get the system up and ready only for it to sit unused while they wait for a vaccine to be approved for mass use. They’ll then start to disband it a week before it’s needed and then it’ll have to be hastily rebuilt, all the time lining some Tory donor’s pockets. I hope to God I’m wrong and this is the one thing they get right though!

With regards to the vaccines, there are about 20 viable candidates in trials. The runners and riders range from traditional methods such as deactivated whole virus, spike protein with an adjuvent to jazz up the response (GSK/Sanofi, Merck), through to untested novel genetically modified chimp viruses (Oxford/AZ) that express the same spiky coat and neat RNA (Pfizer/Moderna) straight into cells. The most novel (last two) are ahead in the clinical testing game, but unprecedented in delivering products. The proven technologies will be along mid 2021. Whether ANY can deliver immunity to this pathogen (sterile protection), or raise antibodies that render a future infection relatively benign is unknown. They’ll certainly do something, but we don’t know what – nor how long protection lasts.

Sadly when it comes to safety and efficacy, there is no substitute for large long trials. Those are the rules of the game. Also there won’t really be rich pickings. GSK reported they’ll sell it at cost plus a few percent to cover further research (as per the malaria vaccine). I imagine everyone will fall into line eventually.

[tl:dr] plenty of vaccine shots on goal, many established. they will all raise antibodies. Whether this is protective remains to be seen. At least one will do something is my prediction – just don’t expect measles mass immunity.

Edit: not just my opinion, either.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/covid-vaccine-will-not-be-available-in-uk-until-spring-says-vallance?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

thanks for the list of key players in the vaccine race, does anyone know who/what is behind the mass rollout planning side?

-80c freezer makers. The two novel technologies require Lower temperature cold chain compared with normal vaccines.

I stand by my view expressed several times up there ^^^ that a vaccine, if one is developed, is at least two years away.

Nothing posted here by the few posters who are expert causes me to change my view; lots of speculation but the informed view is cautious optimism – at best.

I live my life accordingly and assume that everyone else behaves like a dick – nothing personal.

Just discovered that one of the nurses on my mum’ ward thinks that it’s a big fuss over nothing and no worse than the flu. We learned this because she was having a loud conversation about it in the middle of the ward, so that all the old ladies with half-functioning brains could hear. I’d quite like to murder her tbh. I mean, my mum’s literally in that ward right now because they closed and cleared out her previous one for covid overflow.