Probably a dead cat briefing so the evening news focuses on that rather than the brexit clock running down and the ongoing cluster mess that they are making of Covid.

Tonights headlines… “PM promises roll out of millions of 5 minute covid tests to open up the economy”. Can anyone smell something?

So if you go in to Tier 3 willinging, Boris will throw you some extra tests? How generous

Most of that was “Andy Burnham, get back in your box”. A bit school bully like because if he doesn’t, Boris is going to get him.

So if us naughty kids in Greater Manchester won’t do as we’re told by teacher and go into Tier 3, then it’s detention for us all.

What you gonna do, Boris? Water cannon us?

Questions from the public… the answers to those… blimey… “check the website”… no shielding anywhere.

The main groups exposed last spring had higher percentages of over 70s to the national average? Conversely less people exposed who are just living relatively normally with diagnosed / un diagnosed underlying conditions. I suspect the under 70s will go up as you start to have more of the underlying condition people catching it. Death rates for obesity, smoking etc in the spring compared to percentage of population would start to build up the numbers – keeping to the back of a fag packet approach. Over 70s deaths will now be in situations where medical care isn’t available. The people who are coping in their own homes. Whilst the numbers may go down due to an over representation in the deaths due to things like care homes they may go up due to more people being further away from quick help. And then there’s the rationing thing.

Oh for the want of a semi-log plot in that presentation. You may have noticed that 85+ admissions to ITU/HDU declined as admissions increased. That’s due to changes in triage as stress is put on the system by increased numbers of cases. Still early in the South and London, but cases were lower when schools went back and a lower number in exponential-land is called a lag time.

Valence busy talking politics now. Where’s Whitty?

Dammit, rumbled! I’m off to Castle Barnard.

Nothing to see in Barney – move along – I hear Corfe is rather nice this time of year.

Did we do the eye test chart of castles?

binners
Full Member
So if us naughty kids in Greater Manchester won’t do as we’re told by teacher and go into Tier 3, then it’s detention for us all.

What you gonna do, Boris? Water cannon us?

Like it or not, kinda got you by the short and curly’s, what’s manchester going, to do, sit about and watch a % of your over 70s and vulnerable pop their clogs and go, see told ye boris…

I agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.

Oh for the want of a semi-log plot in that presentation. You may have noticed that 85+ admissions to ITU/HDU declined as admissions increased. That’s due to changes in triage as stress is put on the system by increased numbers of cases.

My assumption was that as it was getting fuller they weren’t putting 85+ in ICU anymore, as the change of the graph was striking, thanks for confirming

Why are they bothering to ask Johnson anything? It’s as if all he knows is what he has just heard in the last 10 minutes.

How are the people over 70 catching this though?

They wont be mixing within the work place, be involved within the education system, or down at the pub.

Johnson just said that there is no shielding, even in tier3 regions, that should partly answer your question. Less flippantly… someone in their 20s in contact with someone in their 30s in contact with someone in their 50s in contact with someone in their 70s… there are no magic firebreaks between age groups… hence we should all isolate for a few weeks, and reduce transmission.

Nosocomial (hospital acquire), nursing homes, general contacts, grandchildren… Some aspect of each of these in varying degrees. Admissions with COVID19 also counts those already in hospital who become positive, I believe. In March/April it was mainly the first routes, now it may not be so much.

Sadly there is very little evidence of a role of population immunity, contact restriction and barrier precautions are (at the moment) the primary means of control of contagion.

Valence busy talking politics now. Where’s Whitty?

You’ve kind of answered your own question.  Whitty was too direct on Science only responses last time out.

Why the **** is he talking about Brexit FFS get a grip you bumbling ****!

.

As an aside for those that receive it, this years Flu jab is pretty punchy.  I had mine at 1pm, and now at 16:45 my arm feels like its done 5 rounds with Tyson, about 48 hrs earlier than last year.

agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.

We’re under Tier 2 lockdown now. We have been since the start of August. We were only out of lockdown for a couple of weeks. We’ve had nothing but lockdown since March.

It’s made the square root of **** all difference to our infection rate.

So let’s just shut down the bits of our economy that are still open, with no financial aid

**** off Boris!

Why the **** is he talking about Brexit FFS get a grip you bumbling ****!

The press brought it up.

How are the people over 70 catching this though?

Having seen a couple of coachloads of geriatric daytrippers from Wigan being disgorged into Skipton this week, I think there are some possibilities.

Quite a few are still the childcare backstop in their families.

Meanwhile, Binners is going into full Network mode. Always awesome to watch 🙂

Yeah, agree with seosamh.
Boris has failed rule 1.
No need to outdo him and fight lockdown.
That’s a lot of blood on hands.

You’ve kind of answered your own question.

I try.

I appreciate people still need to go shopping and other essential business

Well, there you go. The more people carrying the virus around the community, the more risky the essential stuff is for people who perhaps should be shielding (but there is no shielding, and no support for people who arguably should be).

Binners is going into full Network mode.

Less flippantly… someone in their 20s in contact with someone in their 30s in contact with someone in their 50s in contact with someone in their 70s… there are no magic firebreaks between age groups… hence we should all isolate for a few weeks, and reduce transmission.

But on the same logic that we are asking certain geographical parts of the country to have differing levels of restrictions, why are we not taking the same view on age?

but there is no shielding, and no support for people who arguably should be

Every man and woman for themselves, seems to be official government policy now.

why are we not taking the same view on age?

Why is no one shielding? Ask the PM.

Vallance saying tier 3 won’t be enough, so why is there no tier 4?

Vallance saying tier 3 won’t be enough, so why is there no tier 4?

Who says there isn’t?

How are the people over 70 catching this though?

It’s incredibly contagious. For example studies have shown that covid can survive for at least 28 days on cash, and it’s days on things like glass, plastic, even paper.

It’s killed pretty quickly by UV light, but we get very little day light in the UK in Winter, and when we do, it’s not very bright.

It’s not hard for example to consider a 70 year old, popping to the shop, not going within 2m of anyone, everyone is wearing a mask, but they pick up a bag of pasta off the shelf, that 4 days before someone with covid picked up and decided not to buy, or the shop staff had covid etc, they take it to the till, pay with cash (few over 70s like using cards) get change etc. Their weaker immune system which means they’ll suffer more from covid, is the same thing that means they’re far more likely to not be able to fight off the infection from a simple touch.

It’s staggering really, but for every 100 people with Covid, 80 don’t know they have it, 20 will have symptoms but less than 4 of them will actually self-isolate. 3.4% of people with Covid, actually fully self-isolate.

I’d really love to see a proper study on how Royal Mail, Amazon and other couriers are spreading Covid between their colleagues and the letter/parcel recipients. An item can easily be handled by four posties just from the point of entering the delivery depot, before looking at its movement from the sender and through the distribution network.

The press brought it up.

How convenient, he could have just said this is a covid briefing

Vallance saying tier 3 won’t be enough, so why is there no tier 4?

Tier four is really silo three in the soon to be announced regional silo scale – which will run along side the covid alert levels land lock down tiers.

Is there any evidence people were catching it from surfaces in large numbers? Most 70+ people i know have incredible social lives and are at risk of catching it through close contact like the rest of us.

Is that a similar principle to the Silo in Fallout 4?

binners
Full Member
agree with the anger and 100% agree with criticism of the tories, but in their face of their c-ish intransigence, kinda have to lock down either way.

We’re under Tier 2 lockdown now. We have been since the start of August. We were only out of lockdown for a couple of weeks. We’ve had nothing but lockdown since March.

It’s made the square root of **** all difference to our infection rate.

So let’s just shut down the bits of our economy that are still open, with no financial aid

**** off Boris!

The **** off stance sounds a bit silly tbh.

I’d guess given the gov have said they’ll pay 80% of wages to business forced to close, sounds like there might be be an answer there..

ie. tell all business they must shut… guess would need to look into the details of that though. ie where does the authority lie in telling business to shut for eligibility.

Worth looking into I’d guess.

I’d guess given the gov have said they’ll pay 80% of wages to business forced to close

Have I missed something?

I know Liverpool are operating a top up scheme to try and make this happen for closed pubs there, but that’s not the same thing at all. Manchester are asking for an 80% government furlough scheme, as operated during the earlier “lock down”, for as long as businesses are made to close… if the gov has said that they’ll provide this, then I would expect local leaders to be more receptive towards the ramping up of their ongoing restrictions.

As an aside for those that receive it, this years Flu jab is pretty punchy. I had mine at 1pm, and now at 16:45 my arm feels like its done 5 rounds with Tyson, about 48 hrs earlier than last year.

I thought it was just me @kryton57…that was my experience too!

They haven’t said that. They’ve said they will pay 67% of the wages. Given that most people in hospitality are on minimum wage, that works out at 5.60 an hour

Fancy ‘living’ on that?

Me neither

The grants are a maximum of 3 grand a week per business. Most will get nowhere near that. How far do you think that a grand a week goes towards the costs of running a business? A city centre bar, for example. Where your overheads are the same but you have no income.

tell all business they must shut

They will never reopen.

The lockdown will end. The 80% salary thing will be stopped. And the jobs will be gone.

You’re delusional if you think the Conservatives will invest the money to restart all those dead businesses.