Ukraine

Anyone seen the interview with Lukashenko? Either it’s another “bluff” and Belarus are about to pile into Ukraine (unlikely) or Putin’s poodle has had an olfactory dose of coffee and is starting to hedge.

Lukashenko cannot be happy with the situation, it can only make it more difficult for him to cling on to power. Being seen as Putin's poodle doesn't sit well with his "strong leader of an independent Belarus" image, and having a grumpy army is never good for an autocrat who rules by oppression and fear (albeit that the security forces he relies on for this are not the army). And I imagine being sent to fight in Ukraine will make the Belarus army very grumpy.

So the big man is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Pre-Ukraine, if Lukashenko had been seen to be losing his grip Putin might have been minded to launch a "special operation" like in the Prague Spring - what would happen now is anybody's guess.

I thought the use of mercenaries and people from other Federations within Russia, e.g Dagestan, is that legally they are not at war so cannot force more conscription for Russians, or use all of their Russian regular soldiers. Hence using Chechen nutters, Wagner etc. under the auspices of helping the Federation resolve the Nazi issue in Ukraine

I read an article saying that many of them were being used to force the conscripts to the front line. And shoot deserters.

I would imagine that, like Caesar, when you are in a position like Putin’s you are always watching your back.

I think one word ends that point - Stalin.

He killed millions,and many of those millions were the family of soldiers in the Russian military, and not just squaddies. But his purges went on and on and nobody assassinated him. He ruled by fear and a network of spies willing to dob each other in to gain a bit of praise.

We saw from 'The Death of Stalin' even party members had their family members imprisoned or killed

I expect its the same under Putin. nobody knows who to trust, so no plot can be watertight enough to come to fruition. Even so much as a rumour and you go out a window somewhere high up.

I've set up the group buy for tourniquets for Ukraine.
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/tourniquet-group-buy-for-ukraine/

Only poor or stupid people actually turn up when they are drafted.

To quote Steve Earle in ‘Copperhead Road’ - “They draft the white trash first round here every time”

Piece I read a little while ago about the new hardware that’s arriving in Ukraine, specifically the 155mm M777 Howitzers, along with some similar U.K./French battlefield weaponry. Also America is supplying new 155mm GPS guided ammunition, which along with the spotting use of drones giving accurate GPS locations of individual vehicles means every shot can count.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39841070/ukrainian-army-field-howitzers/

https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/us-military-artillery-ukraine-russia-war/

Seems it’s not just small explosive munitions that are being re-purposed by grafting 3D-printed fins on and dropping them from drones, it’s happening with larger ordnance as well:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-cheap-grenades-expensive-tanks/31835434.html

Ref the infrastructure question. Railways are actually surprisingly easy to repair, if you have the right kit, and you’re not doing it in the middle of a battlefield. So strikes in the west and centre of the country ought to be repairable pretty quickly. Fuel depots I would imagine would be more difficult, but it doesn’t feel like the intensity of the Russian bombing is enough to bring the place to a halt.

Somehow I think this falls a bit short of plausible deniability.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1522331470764851203

Reports of sinking of another ship; the Admiral Makarov with another Neptune missile

Not a good look for the bear.

Morning catch up reading again.

Lots of might, may, possibly type language around the Admiral Makarov stories online. Needs verifying.

Lots of might, may, possibly type language around the Admiral Makarov stories online. Needs verifying

Waiting for some Ukrainian fisherman to tow it into Odessa?

Well, the farmers can't have all the salvage

Still not confirmed, but there does seem to be something going on.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1522509777053618176

Id wait a little bit before getting excited about that

been stung before!

Big Russian artillery and missile barage overnight in east & south I think Putin is desperate for gains before the 9th

I still cant see him launching full mobilisation then, just declare some sort of victory and maintain fighting hoping to slowly creep further in donbass

^ there is a group of tugs and other vessels just south of where that drone is circling... hmm.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:30.5/centery:42.6/zoom:8

Big Russian artillery and missile barage overnight in east & south I think Putin is desperate for gains before the 9th

Forbes are running this article which seems wildly optimistic about a current Ukrainian offensive whi h has the potential to cut the Russian advances supply lines.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/05/an-advancing-ukrainian-army-just-showed-us-how-the-war-with-russia-could-end/?sh=3bc908fb43c5

David Axe is the War is Boring guy

The tugs are near to an oil and gas drill ship, so I wouldn't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

The tugs are near to an oil and gas drill ship, so I wouldn’t believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

ahh....

Also, tugs and Russian warships just seem to be a thing.

Global Hawk over the area too
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae5420

I wouldn't take notice of any Marine Traffic stuff.

Any ship involved a Russian rescue operation would simply turn their AIS off.

So, if I understand this line of thought, the Russians already knew that NATO was passing intelligence to Ukraine and that would have been how they targeted Moskva, but there was plausible deniability because the U.S. didn't confirm it. That let Russia pretend that NATO hadn't done anything provocative so it didn't force the issue of their promises to escalate if NATO got involved. By officially confirming it, the Biden administration has called Russia's bluff on escalation. Russia knows that attacking NATO would be suicidal so they will will not do that as long as NATO troops aren't actually involved in the fighting.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522546331885228032

I wouldn’t believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

The more Russia denies it, the more I'm convinced it's probably real.

https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1522538023375757312

maybe?

looks pretty fake to me, maybe

https://twitter.com/CaucasianRebel/status/1522567718599286784

Not sure about that video but it’s now being picked up by BBC albeit still unconfirmed. Certainly a lot of speculation about it…

If nothing has happened in the black sea that drone and NATO 1 must be having a boring day at work.

Edit also https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=43c39c
Has Been all the area today

Excellent trolling from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1522643162132537345

Whose side is this guy on? He does make a very good point about heroism.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1520002352572518400

Morning catch-ups.. I wonder if the Admiral Makarov story might have been a flounce to cover Jill Bidens arrival in Romania... or is this getting a bit to JHJ...

This lady is saying that 86% of Belarusians oppose the war, which might explain Lukashenko's recent comments on how it has been going on too long..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61343815?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6276277001eea2774308ddb9%26Belarus%20saboteurs%20%27played%20role%20in%20getting%20Russia%20to%20give%20up%20on%20Kyiv%27%262022-05-07T09%3A12%3A12.228Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:bbdb8784-ef24-4c9f-8f7e-698f2a6467ee&pinned_post_asset_id=6276277001eea2774308ddb9&pinned_post_type=share

That video is hard to tell if real or fake. It depends on the sensor being used and distance. May not be true visible band. Lots of platforms have sensors out with the visible.

Would the 9 May parade be a viable target for the Ukrainians?
Either a missile strike (do they have one with long enough range, would this get through Russian Air defences?) or a bomb planted by an ifiltrator/local sympathiser?
The closest historical parallel I can think of is the British attacks on the celebrations of the ten year anniversary of the Nazi party, a massive propergander coup and a wake up call to the audience.
How would the Russian people view something similar?
Brief story for those who don't know it https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/raf-buzzed-germany-drown-out-nazi-broadcasts-180974966/

I've been wondering the same, however I don't think they would as it would give putin a reason to massively escalate and retaliate. at the moment they seem to have been reluctant to do too much on russian soil. Well, that's what is being reported in the west. a few mentions of possible attacks / sabotage that's it.

I'd worry if they do, it opens the door to use of ya tactical nuke. I wouldn't be surprised if something happens, I still don't understand why the crimea bridge is still in place as mentioned above

I don’t think the Ukrainians will attack it but there has to be some risk of protests or homegrown sabotage. There were some pictures earlier of snipers on the rooftops overseeing the rehearsals..

Would the 9 May parade be a viable target for the Ukrainians?

I think it would have the opposite effect in Russia, angering the population.

I don't think Ukraine has played to Russian politics at all in this war, and they've certainly been very restrained over strikes inside Russia to avoid civilian casualties.

What will be will be on the 9th, and I suspect that the Ukrainians will continue as they have been.

I think Matt is probably correct in his view. Ukraine need to avoid Russian civilian casualties to keep the moral high ground internationally and with sympathetic Russians. Anything that bolsters Putins support is bad for Ukraine.

I'm sure Putin isn't desperate enough to false flag their own parade......

Thought this was worth sharing, text from Zelenskiy's Remembrance day speech. Wow. Quite a lot there. It's long, but I'd suggest reading it all, powerful stuff.

Can spring be black and white? Is there eternal February? Are golden words devalued? Unfortunately, Ukraine knows the answers to all these questions. Unfortunately, the answers are “yes”.

Every year on May 8, together with the entire civilized world, we honor everyone who defended the planet from Nazism during World War II. Millions of lost lives, crippled destinies, tortured souls and millions of reasons to say to evil: never again!

We knew the price our ancestors paid for this wisdom. We knew how important it is to preserve it and pass it on to posterity. But we had no idea that our generation would witness the desecration of the words, which, as it turned out, are not the truth for everyone.

This year we say “Never again” differently. We hear “Never again” differently. It sounds painful, cruel. Without an exclamation, but with a question mark. You say: never again? Tell Ukraine about it.

On February 24, the word “never” was erased. Shot and bombed. By hundreds of missiles at 4am, which woke up the entire Ukraine. We heard terrible explosions. We heard: again!

The city of Borodyanka is one of the many victims of this crime! Behind me is one of many witnesses! Not a military facility, not a secret base, but a simple nine-storey building. Can it pose a security threat to Russia, to 1/8 of the land, the world’s second army, a nuclear state? Can anything be more absurd than this question? It can.

250kg high explosive bombs, with which the superpower shelled this small town. And it went numb. It cannot say today: never again! It cannot say anything today. But here everything is clear without words.

Just look at this house. There used to be walls here. They once had photos on them. And in the photos there were those who once went through the hell of war. Fifty men who were sent to Germany for forced labor. Those who were burned alive when the Nazis burned more than 100 houses here.

250 soldiers who died on the fronts of World War II, and a total of almost 1,000 residents of Borodyanka who fought and defeated Nazism. To ensure: never again. They fought for the future of children, for the life that was here until February 24.

Imagine people going to bed in each of these apartments. They wish good night to each other. Turn off the light. Hug their loved ones. Close their eyes. They dream of something. There is complete silence. They all fall asleep, not knowing that not everyone will wake up. They sleep soundly. They have a dream of something pleasant. But in a few hours they will be awakened by missile explosions. And someone will never wake up again. Never again.

The word “never” was dropped from this slogan. Amputated during the so-called special operation. They stabbed a knife in the heart and, looking into the eyes, said: “It’s not us!” Tortured with the words “not everything is so unambiguous.” Killed “Never again”, saying: “We can repeat.”

And so it happened. And the monsters began to repeat. And our cities, which survived such a heinous occupation that 80 years are not enough to forget about it, saw the occupier again. And got the second date of occupation in their history. And some cities, such as Mariupol, got the third. During the two years of occupation, the Nazis killed 10,000 civilians there. In two months of occupation, Russia killed 20,000.

Decades after World War II, darkness returned to Ukraine. And it became black and white again. Again! Evil has returned. Again! In a different uniform, under different slogans, but for the same purpose. A bloody reconstruction of Nazism was organized in Ukraine. A fanatical repetition of this regime. Its ideas, actions, words and symbols. Maniacal detailed reproduction of its atrocities and “alibi”, which allegedly give an evil sacred purpose. Repetition of its crimes and even attempts to surpass the “teacher” and move him from the pedestal of the greatest evil in human history. Set a new world record for xenophobia, hatred, racism and the number of victims they can cause.

Never again! It was an ode of a wise man! Anthem of the civilized world! But someone sang out of tune. Distorted “Never again” with notes of doubt. Silenced, beginning his deadly aria of evil. And this is clear to all countries that have seen the horrors of Nazism with their own eyes. And today they are experiencing a terrible deja vu. See it again!

All nations who have been branded “third-class”, slaves without the right to their own state or to exist at all hear statements that exalt one nation and erase others with ease. They claim that you don’t really exist, you are artificially created, and therefore you have no rights. Everyone hears the language of evil. Again!

And together they acknowledge the painful truth: we have not withstood even a century. Our Never again was enough for 77 years. We missed the evil. It was reborn. Again and now!

This is understood by all countries and nations who support Ukraine today. And despite the new mask of the beast, they recognized him. Because, unlike some, they remember what our ancestors fought for and against. They did not confuse the first with the second, did not change their places, did not forget.

The Poles didn’t forget, on whose land the Nazis began their march and fired the first shot of World War II. Didn’t forget how evil first accuses you, provokes you, calls you an aggressor, and then attacks at 4.45am saying it’s self-defense. And they saw how it repeated on our land. They remember the Nazi-destroyed Warsaw. And they see what was done to Mariupol.

The British people did not forget how the Nazis wiped out Coventry, which was bombed 41 times. How the “Moonlight Sonata” from the Luftwaffe sounded, when the city was continuously bombed for 11 hours. How its historic center, factories, St. Michael’s Cathedral were destroyed. And they saw missiles hit Kharkiv. How its historic center, factories and the Assumption Cathedral were damaged. They remember London being bombed for 57 nights in a row. Remember how V-2 hit Belfast, Portsmouth, Liverpool. And they see cruise missiles hit Mykolaiv, Kramatorsk, Chernihiv. They remember how Birmingham was bombed. And they see its sister city Zaporizhzhia being damaged.

The Dutch remember this. How Rotterdam became the first city to be completely destroyed when the Nazis dropped 97 tons of bombs on it.

The French remember this. Remember Oradour-sur-Glane, where the SS burned half a thousand women and children alive. Mass hangings in Tulle, the massacre in the village of Ascq. Thousands of people at a resistance rally in occupied Lille. They saw what was done in Bucha, Irpin, Borodyanka, Volnovakha and Trostyanets. They see the occupation of Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk and other cities where people do not give up. And thousands of them go to peaceful rallies, which are beyond the power of the occupiers, and all they can do is shoot at civilians.

The Czechs have not forgotten this. How in less than a day, the Nazis destroyed Lidice, leaving only ashes from the village. They saw Popasna destroyed. There are not even ashes left from it. The Greeks, who survived massacres and executions throughout the territory, the blockade and the Great Famine, have not forgotten.

This is remembered by Americans who fought evil on two fronts. Who passed Pearl Harbor and Dunkirk with the Allies. And together we are going through new, no less difficult battles.

This is remembered by all Holocaust survivors - how one nation can hate another.

Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Danes, Georgians, Armenians, Belgians, Norwegians and many others have not forgotten this - all those who suffered from Nazism on their land and all those who defeated it in the anti-Hitler coalition.

Unfortunately, there are those who, having survived all these crimes, having lost millions of people who fought for victory and gained it, have desecrated the memory of them and their feat today.

The one who allowed the shelling of the cities of Ukraine from his land. The cities that, along with our ancestors, were liberated by his ancestors.

The one who spat in the face of his “Immortal Regiment”, placing torturers from Bucha next to it.

And challenged all mankind. But forgot the main thing: any evil always ends the same – it ends.

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today, on the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation, we pay homage to all those who defended their homeland and the world from Nazism. We note the feat of the Ukrainian people and their contribution to the victory of the anti-Hitler coalition.

Explosions, shots, trenches, wounds, famine, bombing, blockades, mass executions, punitive operations, occupation, concentration camps, gas chambers, yellow stars, ghettos, Babyn Yar, Khatyn, captivity, forced labor. They died so that each of us knows what these words mean from books, not from our own experience. But it happened differently. This is unfair to them all. But the truth will win. And we will overcome everything!

And the proof of this is called “Werewolf”. This is Hitler’s former headquarters and bunker near Vinnytsia. And all that is left of it is a few stones. Ruins. The ruins of a person who considered himself great and invincible. This is a guide for all of us and future generations. What our ancestors fought for. And proved that no evil can avoid responsibility. Will not be able to hide in the bunker. There will be no stone left of it. So we will overcome everything. And we know this for sure, because our military and all our people are descendants of those who overcame Nazism. So they will win again.

And there will be peace again. Finally again!

We will overcome the winter, which began on February 24, lasts on May 8, but will definitely end, and the Ukrainian sun will melt it! And we will meet our dawn together with the whole country. And family and loved ones, friends and relatives will be together again! Finally again! And over the temporarily occupied cities and villages our flag will fly again. Finally again! And we will get together. And there will be peace! Finally again! And no more black and white dreams, only a blue and yellow dream. Finally again! Our ancestors fought for this.

Eternal honor to all who fought against Nazism!

Eternal memory to all those killed during World War II!

He's certainly got a way with words.

Meanwhile, things don't seem to exactly be going swimmingly for the Russians around Kharkiv, with the UA predicted to drive the Russians back to the border in the next few days. If this happens as predicted then the Russian forces trying to drive SE to attack Izium, would find themselves potentially caught between UA in front and behind. Never a good look. Perhaps they'll send a few more generals to the front lines to sort it all out..

Would the 9 May parade be a viable target for the Ukrainians?

I would hope not, the civilian casualties would be horrific

I’ve been wondering the same, however I don’t think they would as it would give putin a reason to massively escalate and retaliate. at the moment they seem to have been reluctant to do too much on russian soil

Quite rightly - Russian troops have throughout been described as having 'poor morale'- abandoning posts and equipment the moment things get sticky - this isn't in the sense that they are exhausted or depressed - its in the sense that they have very little motivation for risk - theres no just cause to fight for. They know they're  not fighting  in defence of Russia - theres no sense that their country or homes and families are in peril if their mission doesn't succeed. They're not fighting to liberated a people from a tyrannical regime - they're not heroes  - nobody is cheering their arrival. Ukraine attacks on Russian soil would only serve to motivate Russian forces on the ground and would only serve to galvanise public support in Russian for the invasion.

The biggest threat to Russian morale isn't missiles from Ukraine to Russia - it'll be returning soldiers. At present the only soldiers going home are in bodybags. As the conflict drags on the truth about whats happening in Ukraine is going to be carried back by solders finishing their tours and returning to their home towns and families - no amount of state media management can do anything about that -  and thats going to inflict more damage to Russia than a missile can.

Just another bombing of a school where 60 odd people have been killed.
BBC news if anyone needs to check.
Ukraine will be at war for a generation even if Putin dies and Russia troops leave.
The Ukraine population won't forget this

Even if this specific claim is just trolling, I'm pretty sure that Ukraine will try to do something like this - destroy a legitimate military target that has symbolic importance to humiliate Putin on Victory Day.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1522643162132537345

It’s just horrific - seems to be horrendous fighting going on across Ukraine this weekend - and for what? Absolutely nothing…. Putin faces nothing but defeat now. What a waste…

Even if this specific claim is just trolling, I’m pretty sure that Ukraine will try to do something like this – destroy a legitimate military target that has symbolic importance to humiliate Putin on Victory Day.

I was musing on why it's still standing a couple of weeks ago. It's got to be the best, secure supply route for that southern region. I can only think that the reason it's not been blown up before is because they didn't have munitions with the range to do it.

Destroying a bridge that size is an awful lot more difficult than it looks.  Missiles or air dropped weapons would cause damage but would would be unlikely to bring down a stanchion or collapse a span which is what you would need to do to prevent a relatively quick repair.

Certainly nothing in the Ukrainian inventory would do it.  The US attacked a lot of bridges in the Gulf war using precision guided 500lb bombs and the like, and as often as not these failed to fell the bridge. Thick pillars of reinforced concrete are surprisingly resistant to high explosives.  It can be done but requires either a shit ton of HE or for specialist shaped cutting charges to be placed in intimate contact with the main load bearing members. Or preferably both.

A few years ago (and maybe still) the Royal Engineers wartime solution to destroy a bridge rapidly was to drop a pallet of plastic explosive in the middle of the roadway with a fork lift. One pallet for each lane linked with detonating cord if it was a wide bridge. Each pallet containing a ton or more of HE.  This was a quick and dirty method for when there wasn't time to place smaller charges more strategically, but gives an idea of how tough steel/concrete bridges are.

More realistically, they could hole the roadway or cause other damage which would close it for a while. This would still be a major propaganda victory but they aren't going to bring it down completely without some major help from outside.

Destroying a bridge that size is an awful lot more difficult than it looks. Missiles or air dropped weapons would cause damage but would would be highly unlikely to bring down a stanchion or collapse a span which is what you would need to do to prevent a relatively quick repair.

It'll depend on the design of the bridge. This is the central span of the Crimea bridge. Taking out the arches with a GPS guided munition would collapse it.

The new artillery Ukraine is receiving from NATO has a range of 40 km and can fire GPS guided munitions. There are also GPS guided rocket artillery systems with much longer ranges. I'm guessing that Ukraine hasn't destroyed the bridge yet because they couldn't, but that might change.

 a GPS guided munition would collapse it.

No single precision guided munition currently in the Ukrainian inventory would be guaranteed (or even be likely) to collapse that archway with a single strike unless they were extremely lucky. Their explosive payloads simply aren't big enough. Damage it? Yes. Of course if it was in artillery range and hit repeatedly, that is a different matter.

No single precision guided munition currently in the Ukrainian inventory would be guaranteed (or even be likely) to collapse that archway with a single strike unless they were extremely lucky.

I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians know this and will fire multiple rounds if they can get within range.

I’m pretty sure the Ukrainians know this

Thanks.  You could hit that arch 100 times with PGMs fired from a TB2 (for example) and do nothing more than punch lots of little holes in it from the shaped charge warheads, and maybe scorch the paint a bit. The PGMs the Ukrainians have are brilliant at punching holes in armour, delivering behind armour anti personnel effects, destroying soft skinned vehicles and unprotected personnel.

What they are not so good at, nor designed for, is destroying large reinforced steel or concrete structures.  I also think it would be surprising to many, how many direct hits that could take from guided artillery rounds and still stay standing.  PGMs are a costly and finite resource. If the Ukrainians had a US 2000lb JDAM and the means to deliver it, that would be a different matter. All I am saying is that it would be a LOT harder to collapse that bridge than you are making it out to be. I may be wrong, and tbh I hope I am, but my thoughts on this are backed up by some professional knowledge.

Jesus words fail me
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ukwtk7/meanwhile_in_russia_its_not_even_a_victory_day/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

The new artillery Ukraine is receiving from NATO has a range of 40 km and can fire GPS guided munitions. There are also GPS guided rocket artillery systems with much longer ranges. I’m guessing that Ukraine hasn’t destroyed the bridge yet because they couldn’t, but that might change.

Given the bridge is about 150km from the southern coast of the occupied south, and 250-300km from Ukrainian controlled territory, seems unlikely that a 40km range is close to enough.