Ukraine

Perhaps where we differ is in thinking sacrificing Ukraine is the answer.

No where we differ is you still think not sacrificing Ukraine is an option. It’s already been sacrificed if you hadn’t noticed. Zelensky himself has said that they’ve been left to fight alone by the west. It’s a shit situation but the sooner we get beyond this fantasy that Putin can be beaten (I don’t even really know what that means) the sooner some cleverer people than us lot can figure out how to stop it escalating into armageddon.

 because if it is it’s deranged.

So you go out of your way to insist that we show folks respect if they invade another country and then label other folks as deranged for just talking shit on an internet forum.

Cool.

 but the sooner we get beyond this fantasy that Putin can be beaten

He already has (been beaten). His goal was taking Ukraine, that’s not going to happen. It’s doubtful right now if he’ll even hold the bits he does in a coupe of weeks time.

What happens next if Putin wins? It isn’t peace in our time, I can assure you.

Putin = Nukes.

You don’t have to respect Putin (individual choice) as a person but you certainly need to respect nukes.

Even superpower like USA respects nukes with Putin fingers on the triggers. USA (they are NATO backbone) knows this well because they have seen the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, those were just atomic bombs, and will not wish to escalate the situation.

As for using sanctions that is just punitive action that punishes everyone (including us) because we rely on the very basic of energy imports from Russia. Yes, EU has reserve of gas and oil etc but as sanctions bite on Russia, the same will be for all of us.

Considering the low tech deployed by Russia/Putin at the moment, with west (according to media) having an upper hand in destroying Russian military hardware, that will be enough to cause a stalemate for negotiation.

What happens next if Putin wins? It isn’t peace in our time, I can assure you.

There is no win in wars. Everyone just licks their own wounds.

Zelensky himself has said that they’ve been left to fight alone by the west

He has led Ukraine into the wrong path rightly or wrongly. He does not or deliberate not to understand the tension between NATO and Russia (a diminishing power but with nukes) and Ukraine being used as a test for power struggle between two mighty nuclear groups.

Honestly I read some of this stuff here and it seems like some of you think a nuclear war wouldn’t be that bad.

Where has anyone indicated that?

So you go out of your way to insist that we show folks respect if they invade another country

Yeah I never said that though did I? See above.

And yeah if anyone thinks a war with Putin is feasible I think that is deranged. It’s such a ridiculous proposition it barely justifies discussion. Unless of course we’re seriously willing to consider committing suicide to prove a point.

Where has anyone indicated that?

It was in response to boomers suggestion that a war with Putin needn’t be nuclear. Maybe I misread it, but the point I’m trying to make is that resolving this situation by having a war with Putin is essentially suicidal. It doesn’t justify serious discussion, so better to not even mention it.

this fantasy that Putin can be beaten

He can. A domestic assassination. No one else to blame, and Russia can start mending some relations.

Presdient Navalny will be a breath of fresh air.

Fingers crossed

And…Ukraine hasn’t been sacrificed. Just about as much as can be done, has been done. Zelensky is still in charge, not a Kremlin puppet. This far into a war with Russia? It’s astonishing

Other countries have done as much as they feel they can with out making the madman even madder. It’s all a balance.

No where we differ is you still think not sacrificing Ukraine is an option. It’s already been sacrificed if you hadn’t noticed.

A good what? 80 or 90% of Ukraine is still free of Russian troops.  Against all the odds and everyone’s expectations, (including my own) Ukraine defeated the Russian Army around the capital and in the North.  Dozens of Ukrainian cities, the majority in fact have been successfully defended.   Had Ukrainians listened to the advice of many around the world (and a few on here) to capitulate, the ‘denazification’ burial pits and mobile crematoria would now be working overtime across the whole of Ukraine, but without the spotlight shone by journalists and war crimes investigators.

It hasn’t been sacrificed.   Short of NATO boots on the ground which would trigger WW3 and even more robust sanctions, the west has showed a unity of purpose unheard of in recent decades.  There are no winners in war and Ukraine and Russia will suffer because of it, but the outcome for Ukraine would have been much, much worse if they had said ‘come on in’ to Russia as your posts seem to suggest you wanted.

the sooner we get beyond this fantasy that Putin can be beaten

I very much hope that this part of your analysis is as insightful and prescient as your predictions re russian action in the early pages of this thread.

I’ll repost what I put to zero impact (technical term is a “plop”) on the previous page as to what our objectives might be:

What are ‘our’ as in the west’s actual objectives here? I’d say ranked:

1. Not to have a war with Russia. Looking less easy as time goes on but only upside of this would be not having to worry about climate change any more.

2. To minimise casualties, Ukranian, Russian, anyoneelsian, including direct casualties of war and indirect through Chernobyl radiation etc.

3. For Russian influence/belligerence to be contained so Europe can continue in roughly its current form.

4. For Ukraine to continue as an independent country, albeit probably with reconfigured borders.

As to how to achieve those: sanctions and support ukraine to hopefully fight russia to a standstill. And yeah, hope for ‘events’. On 2. and 4. I think zelensky has signaled hard that he’s prepared to cede territory for lives and peace, showing proper mature leadership. That’s not where russia is at yet – they’ll still be looking to grind out some sort of victory at great cost and over years if necessary.

What happens next if Putin wins? It isn’t peace in our time, I can assure you.

I don’t think there can be a “win” for anyone out of this, we are in a world war 3 scenario by proxy of supplying Ukraine with arms and sanctions against Russia which will continue to be ramped up until putin is removed by force or by the Russian citizen’s (both very unlikely) so this is the foreseeable future, how this pans out is anyones guess, I certainly wouldn’t like to second guess just how far putin will go to satisfy his fragile ego.

He can. A domestic assassination. No one else to blame, and Russia can start mending some relations.

If we’re really lucky. It’s just as likely though that his hardline generals would interpret that as a western plot and escalate the war accordingly. Putin isn’t the only nutter in Russia.

That’s fair, but I doubt most of those generals feel safe from Putin either.

Directly or in the blast zone…

I very much hope that this part of your analysis is as insightful and prescient as your predictions re russian action in the early pages of this thread.

Well you know, sometimes you have to fool yourself with hope and optimism in order to stay sane. Bit like saying no don’t worry, there definitely won’t be a nuclear war, not a chance, it’s unthinkable etc.. 😳

Or a bit like saying , if we just give him Ukraine then it will all be over

I think zelensky has signaled hard that he’s prepared to cede territory for lives and peace, showing proper mature leadership.

I wonder what he would think with hindsight. Would he still insist on the current situation? He cannot step down now and must either swim like the rest or sink with the boat. Anything less is not acceptable.

Or a bit like saying , if we just give him Ukraine the Sudetenland/rest of Czechoslovakia then it will all be over

FTFY

if we just give him Ukraine then it will all be over

Well I’ve never said that fortunately. My preferred solution was Ukrainian neutrality, but unfortunately it’s probably a bit late for that now. Any solution now is probably going to involve ceding some of Ukraine to Russia. It’s that or a protracted proxy war with the ever increasing threat of nuclear escalation.

He did not wipe out the Chechens in his doorstep nor did he wipe out those in the middle east, what is the probability of him trying to wipe out Ukrainians? However, he will wipe out their economy and functioning nation.

Well who would have predicted a Ukrainian victory in the North 6 weeks ago? Certainly none of the ‘Putin Caressers’ (to use a German term) on here 🤷‍♂️

As for the future of the war, who knows, the east looks too difficult- but the south, hopefully some advances can be made there.

I wonder what he would think with hindsight. Would he still insist on the current situation?

In terms of milatristic progress, I doubt he’ll have any regrets. Ukraine has performed admirably in the the face of seemingly overwhelming might and numbers.

I suspect trusting the Russians to behave within the norms of modern conflict is something he regrets. If he ever did believe that they would act with some discipline and integrity.

The situation now is not as grim as it would have been had Russia established control across Kyiv.

Zelensky continues to demonstrate good leadership in terms of protecting civilians from the ruthless Russian invaders.

Resistance appears to be the best way of preserving civilian lives.

My preferred solution was Ukrainian neutrality

Ukranian neutrality = letting Putin take Ukraine whenever he likes

It was never an option, he already took Donbass, Crimea, bits of Moldova, Georgia, Chechenya…

they myth that he would be staisfied with ‘neutrality’ or that this was about NATO encroachment is laughable

He wants his own version of Russia under his control, unfortunately that includes a lot of countries that arent part of Russia

Look at what is happening in occupied territories Chew. The latest opEd on Russian media states that all Ukrainian elites must be liquidated, along with their culture, anybody who has helped them, plus any member of the army or TDF.

The Ukrainians fight to the death, because if they lose they are dead anyway.

WRT Putin and Nukes, we either believe he will use them, or not. On his current trajectory, at some point we are going to have to confront him.

Ukranian neutrality = letting Putin take Ukraine whenever he likes

Possibly. Would have kicked the can down the road though, saved thousands of lives and prevented the ruination of millions of other lives. Even if only in the short-medium term. Better to be dead tomorrow than today..

All the talk of NATO/Neutrality is purely justification for empire building.

Putin wants to show the East what happens if you choose democracy over Russia. Plus he wants their agriculture, metal industry and control of the Black Sea (No winter ice).

On his current trajectory, at some point we are going to have to confront him.

Well then we can all look forward to being vaporised or dying of radiation sickness and/or starvation. Or we can find another option.

Possibly. Would have kicked the can down the road though, saved thousands of lives and prevented the ruination of millions of other lives. Even if only in the short-medium term. Better to be dead tomorrow than today..

Have a read of this from Russian state media. What they had/have planned for Ukraine.  Do you really still think showing them the open door would have have been a good idea?

An op-ed for state news agency RIA Novosti titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" by pundit Timofei Sergeitsev has created quite a stir today

The rhetoric is truly horrific, even by the standards of what I'm used to seeing from pro-Kremlin media

Below are a few quotes:

— Francis Scarr (@francska1) April 4, 2022

We are finding the other option. Fighting him economically with sanctions and arming Ukraine to stop him themselves.

I’m not advocating all out war with Russia, I just don’t believe appeasing the bully will end well for anybody. Putin is our problem, whether we like it or not.

We have to sort out our energy security , and stop the rotten money flowing into our country.

Do you really still think showing them the open door would have have been a good idea?

I said I supported neutrality, not opening the door. Neutrality would have been founded on Ukrainian borders being respected.

they myth that he would be staisfied with ‘neutrality’ or that this was about NATO encroachment is laughable

There is No evidence of Russia encroaching on NATO territory? As I repeated again Russia needs the buffer zone. Russia is a declining nuclear power but that does not mean NATO has the right to move (expand) right next to them. What’s the hurry? Everyone knows Putin is not a push over so why not wait for another one or two generations to decide?

Look at what is happening in occupied territories Chew. The latest opEd on Russian media states that all Ukrainian elites must be liquidated, along with their culture, anybody who has helped them, plus any member of the army or TDF.

The Ukrainians fight to the death, because if they lose they are dead anyway.

That’s Russian media can say whatever they want after all it is just propaganda. That approach can only push people to fight to the end which means Russia will also suffer casualties … perhaps even more.

WRT Putin and Nukes, we either believe he will use them, or not. On his current trajectory, at some point we are going to have to confront him.

He will use it. If news is right that he has some serious health problem.

All the talk of NATO/Neutrality is purely justification for empire building.

Putin wants to show the East what happens if you choose democracy over Russia. Plus he wants their agriculture, metal industry and control of the Black Sea (No winter ice).

Putin is Not empire building rather they are shrinking (still a bit land though) but wants to retain influence over those in the buffer zone.

Ukraine can only choose neutrality whether they like it or not. Deep down they may hate Russia but at least the people have a home to return to and live another day.

Ukraine is a strategic position for Russia and they will Not let go of it even if it means flattening Ukraine.

……..and that article above should be in every U.K. paper tomorrow. Let’s call a spade a spade.

Neutrality would have been founded on Ukrainian borders being respected.

Like the respect shown in 2014? The Russians / Putin were never going to respect any neutrality.

Chew – Russian State media publish what they are told by the Kremlin. It’s a policy document, which is scarily close to what we are seeing going on in the Kyiv suburbs. They were only there 2 weeks!!

Rumours from Mariupol are even worse.

Neutrality would have been founded on Ukrainian borders being respected.

By Putin? Do you honestly believe he would have respected Ukrainian neutrality when he has said many times Ukraine is little Russia, it’s not a legitimate country, it has no right to exist?  Read that twitter article I linked to and tell me if you really believe anyone in the Kremlin would have respected Ukrainian neutrality?  Fantasy.

Neutrality would have been founded on Ukrainian borders being respected.

You are so naïve

Fighting him economically with sanctions and arming Ukraine to stop him themselves.

And I said above we should be doing a lot more economically. We won’t do that though will we, because when it comes down to it as a country we’re not willing to make any sacrifices to support the Ukrainians. It’s easier to just supply a few weapons and turn a blind eye to the suffering.

Shirley, comrade daZ must be on a wind up?

You are so naïve

No I’m a realist. There is no military solution to this situation. I might not like Putin threatening the world with nuclear destruction, but I at least recognise that’s where we are. Neither side is going to get what they want, and compromise will be necessary. It’s that or more military escalation leading all of us dead. So better for everyone to swallow their pride and get on with the hard choices of figuring this out.

Chew – Russian State media publish what they are told by the Kremlin. It’s a policy document, which is scarily close to what we are seeing going on in the Kyiv suburbs. They were only there 2 weeks!!

Rumours from Mariupol are even worse.

That’s the state media. The only option is fight to the end if the end is already decided by the state media.

Like the respect shown in 2014? The Russians / Putin were never going to respect any neutrality.

You need to refer to the Bucharest summit 2008 as Russia strongly objected but NATO/EU/World just saw an animated Putin. He repeated his objection (actually speaking a lot to the media) and kept saying/asking if they understood him (indirectly inform NATO etc) but media just saw an animated person.