Ukraine

The unknown is what state the Ukrainians are really in. But information on that is well hidden in western sources, and anything from pro Russian that "might" be true is buried under an avalanche of obvious bullshit and whatever dross Serging Lavatory has spewed forth.

BBC live feed reporting Oil imports to the EU to cease by the end of this year. Gas not decided.

EU to ban Russian oil - but no consensus on gas

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has just laid out details of another package of sanctions against Russia to be agreed by EU countries in the coming days.

Von der Leyen said the bloc was ending its dependency on Russian oil - with purchases banned by the end of the year.

She acknowledged that it would not be easy, as some countries were dependent on such imports.

Hungary has opposed an embargo on Russian fuels.

Al Jazeera have a piece looking at both Global and Russian oil production and exports
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/3/10/infographic-how-much-of-your-countrys-oil-comes-from-russia-interactive

Will Russia declare “war” and perform a general mobilisation?

How would that really help?

A load of poorly trained conscripts thrown into the fight?

BBC live feed reporting Oil imports to the EU to cease by the end of this year.

Oil price crashes is what more or less did for the old communist regime. I wonder if history will repeat itself? While I doubt there'd be anything like a coup against Putin happening any time soon, there must be people in the regime at a reasonably high level who can see this shit show for what it is?

It's going to go down to numbers of people getting killed if Russian boys/soldiers have to be killed at a rate of 10/1 then sadly I think Putin will be ok with it. Ukraine must be taking casualties.
Russia won't win but wars are seldom won in conflict sadly the Taliban are still around and getting stronger but that's a different thread altogether.
Good news is people have got out of Mariupol.
Bad news is missiles landing on Lviv and Belarus began sudden large-scale drills.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-evacuations-d5fead271f5bd1ff19196d9e52253079
For you link lovers

I think stories about potential coup attempts are probably just to make Putin unsure about who he can trust,

I would imagine that, like Caesar, when you are in a position like Putin's you are always watching your back.

So how do we think Russia’s eastern campaign is going?

It seems to be going badly. They've thrown everything they have at Ukraine and have advanced a few kilometers but lost hundreds of tanks and other vehicles, plus probably thousands of soldiers. At this rate of losses, they won't be able to mount any further offensive actions until they rebuild their army with properly trained soldiers and refurbished equipment. That would take months in peacetime conditions. In wartime, with economic sanctions, years will be more realistic.

On top of that, Ukraine has been employing black magic. That's going to be hard to beat with conventional weapons.

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1521729761604771843

You mean like.. empty chocolate boxes or something?

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220502-finnish-group-scraps-nuclear-plant-deal-with-russia-s-rosatom

Finnish-led consortium Fennovoima said on Monday it has terminated a contract with Russian group Rosatom to build Finland's third nuclear power plant, citing risks linked to the Ukraine war.

7.5 billion euro contract

Rosatom said it was surprised by the announcement.

"The reasons for such a decision are completely incomprehensible," 

LOL.

Kamil Galeevs threads explain a lot

Thread 21 for why Nalvany is not really a great option

Thread 26 for whats happening now and why the corruption will be perpetuated

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711

Compare the map of say 29th or 30th February 

I'm calling fake news! 🤣

7.5 billion euro contract

“The reasons for such a decision are completely incomprehensible,”

must've forgotten the threat to nuke Finland if they joined Nato!

A Russian built nuclear power station on your territory, sounds like a really bad idea! Wouldn’t put it past them to build a cyber back door, for nuclear blackmail.

I’m calling fake news!

hahah, yes!! worthy of Russian bots.

lots of speculation about big announcements on the 9th of May - ranging from full declaration of war to victory. I can't see them declaring victory with maripol still holding out.

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1521819777672568835

Does declaring general mobilisation mean anything beyond a statement? Does Putin have some additional forces in reserve or does it mean people can be conscripted into service?

Should we anticipate a mass exodus of eligible people?

Should we anticipate a mass exodus of eligible people?

I would assume that if they did announce a general mobilisation they wouldn't let anyone leave (just like Ukraine stopped men eligible to fight from leaving at the start of the war).

Does declaring general mobilisation mean anything beyond a statement? Does Putin have some additional forces in reserve or does it mean people can be conscripted into service?

Should we anticipate a mass exodus of eligible people?

Apparently, Russian conscripts can't legally be deployed abroad unless there's a declaration of war. They already have conscription but they can't acknowledge that conscripts are in combat in Ukraine.

Any family with education/money/political connections will be able to get their sons exempted from conscription. Only poor or stupid people actually turn up when they are drafted.

https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1521844987155132417?s=20&t=d8JocPsjbJyhtNaLdXzhmw

No idea if it's TRUE btw

can’t see them declaring victory with maripol still holding out.

They already have conscription but they can’t acknowledge that conscripts are in combat in Ukraine

They're not in combat.

Or at war.

They are doing a "special military operation."

Which is obviously neither of the other two things.

I believe as well as the deployment legality that thols2 highlights, they can then call up more folk as and when they like. Usually it has to be approved by Kremlin each year, and there are two drafts only.

Another question will be - do they have the uniform/guns/food/transport to equip a wave of new soldiers, or have enough NCO's and higher to train and lead the new conscripts?

or have enough NCO’s and higher to train and lead the new conscripts?

They don't really have enough NCO's for the current army, by all accounts.

This is a really interesting thread which explains the knot Russia has tied itself in because it hasn't declared war, and why it didn't.  'Why' because they expected a walk in the park, hence the 'special military operation' nonsense.

Because war has not been declared, their inflexible bureaucratic procedures mean 'contractors' their professional soldiers, can legally refuse to fight, and a great many have and continue to do so. They also legally can't send conscripts, although that seems to have happened anyway.  This is the incentive for Putin to officially declare war, but it is a massive about face and admission that they f****d up big time!

The thread goes on to discuss the Moscow-centric nature of Russian politics and how all the potential successors to Putin, including Navalny are Moscow based nationalists who are likely to operate in a broadly similar tsar-like way.  He discusses the lack of agency people in Russia generally, but the regions in particular have.  People don't care because they simply have no expectation of ever having any influence or say, so defer all decisions to whoever is in the Kremlin.  This is so deeply embedded it will task a huge upheaval to break.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521850468313579520?s=20&t=7A-_Cl_Qxmn9G-ZX8WDvyQ

Another question will be – do they have the uniform/guns/food/transport to equip a wave of new soldiers, or have enough NCO’s and higher to train and lead the new conscripts?

If they don't have enough trucks to supply their current army, sending more untrained conscripts who need food and ammunition won't help.
https://twitter.com/OSINTEng/status/1521847848396070913

It sound like they are bombing Ukraine tonight I can see a week of random destruction from Russia

Tourniquet update. There are ten arriving soon bought by the amazing kilo, once I’ve done a video call to my medic friend in Przyemsl testing them, they will be sent and I will set up a just giving page to start buying more.
I will get photos of them at each stage of te journey.

I can see a week of random destruction from Russia

Indeed. 🙁

Seems more reports of horrendous treatment and torture by Russians today. And let us not forget the thousands that have been illegally moved to Russia - either illegal prison camps or illegal resettlement camps. I wonder how much frustration & revenge will be taken out on them. 🙁

@jkomo 👍

Yep. Russia has nothing positive to offer its neighbours, only coercion and violence. China seems to be making the same mistake.

https://twitter.com/PopovaProf/status/1521909757652647939

On the misinformation of Jacques Baud (shared a few times on this thread)…

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1522091432198160384?s=21

And now an accidental incursion into Finnish airspace by a Russian helicopter, just as Finland are at a critical time in their decision making for joining NATO:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/04/russia-violates-finnish-airspace-as-helsinki-mulls-nato-a77580

And now an accidental incursion into Finnish airspace by a Russian helicopter, just as Finland are at a critical time in their decision making for joining NATO:

Surely that is counterproductive. Pre-February the Russians could plausibly say "trust us, we would never hurt you". Now the facts are clear - you need a big stick to keep even a mangy bear in line. Finland would be mad to trust them.

p.s. for a brilliant novel set in the Winter War - Unknown Soldier by Vaino Linna (sp?)

Finland is never going to trust them, believe me. They might have some parties that are friendly or influenced by Russia, but the country knows that they cannot trust them.

It's the same thing here in Sweden. We have airspace violations a lot (over Gotland and other places) and have some politicians that seem oddly reluctant to fully condemn current Russian activity; Jimmie Åkesson of Sverige Demokratarna, I am looking at you.

Wow, weird... Another anti-immigration, nationalist, right-wing party that has ties to Putin/Russia. Who would have thought it?

Worth remembering that incursions into foreign countries airspace is more or less routine and has been happening for decades. Not sure when it started but I'd hazard a guess the 1950s.

Edit, the obvious example for context would be Gary Powers.

www.airforcemag.com/article/intercepting-the-bear/

Actually states 1961 for "Bears" being intercepted on the periphery of US/Canadian airspace.

can’t see them declaring victory with maripol still holding out.

Given the control over the media and population, I reckon he can declare any kind of victory he wants.

Agreed on the incursions, but 5-6km inside the border in a helicopter is a bit of a stretch.

can’t see them declaring victory with maripol still holding out.

I reckon they are going to go all out to finish off Mariupol and the steelworks.

Whatever the cost in lives Putin will want to be able to say he's achieved what he wanted by 9th, it'll just be limited to Crimea corridor.

He will keep trying to push further in Donbas, even if he officially declared war over.

There are now only 2000 RU troops around Azovstal, the rest have been taken for the Donbas.

Agreed on the incursions, but 5-6km inside the border in a helicopter is a bit of a stretch.

Not really.  I did a few tours in Northern Ireland in EOD teams in the 80s and 90s.  I was inadvertently flown over the border into ROI airspace several times.  By RAF and Army Air Corps pilots.  Once in 86 doing a recce of a job near Warrenpoint in a Gazelle, the AAC pilot flew us a good 4 km into the south without realising.  Simple navigation error, although this was pre GPS and nav was mostly paper charts.

This happened all the time in South Armagh, Femanagh and Tyrone.  Tales of EOD teams being dropped by Chinook, Wessex or Puma in a field in the ROI were common, though this never happened to me. The ROI government took 'border incursions' very seriously if they found out, issuing demarches to the UK Ambassador in Dublin.  Foot patrols had it worse, if they strayed across the border (which was often the middle of a field) the Garda would arrest them and confiscate their weapons,

Over a vast featureless forest in Scandinavia I can easily see it being a lot further.  I know avionics and nav kit has improved, but if a helicopter pilot is flying low level, he is more focused on flying the aircraft than navigating and could easily stray some distance over a border.

Then they invented GPS

Then they invented GPS

Thanks for that.  My point is, tactical low level flying in a helicopter is extremely demanding for the crew and sometimes their attention is more focused on flight controls than GPS screens and navigation errors are made.

Then they invented GPS

Assuming it functions

Then they invented GPS

Assuming the aircraft they were flying had any devices with modern GPS fitted, that they did a pre flight navigation plan that set expectations about their course, height, flying time, waypoints for navigation, weather reports, contact with ATC and so on and so on...That they looked at a map and made some calculations about where the border might be

Having seen the maps RUA use in Ukraine, I'm not hugely surprised.

Thanks @jkomo, fingers crossed they are suitable

They don't have enough young men in their population to support a war

Russian population has been on decline for decades

They have been sending minorities to fight

They are running out of men

The use of mercenaries supports this

I thought the use of mercenaries and people from other Federations within Russia, e.g Dagestan, is that legally they are not at war so cannot force more conscription for Russians, or use all of their Russian regular soldiers. Hence using Chechen nutters, Wagner etc. under the auspices of helping the Federation resolve the Nazi issue in Ukraine

Anyone seen the interview with Lukashenko? Either it's another "bluff" and Belarus are about to pile into Ukraine (unlikely) or Putin's poodle has had an olfactory dose of coffee and is starting to hedge.

Doesn't look good for Vlad the Invader if the rat for whom it is commonly accepted that his grip on power is dependent upon Putin's support, is starting to cast his eye about for an attractive new ship..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/05/russias-ally-belarus-criticises-war-effort-dragging/

For the amateur armchair commander: if Russia is blowing up the infrastructure how can the munitions be brought in? Presumably not using those giant Chinook helicopters.