Ukraine

I regret that civilian mass graves do fit a good versus evil narrative.

Sigh. No one is or would say that dead civilians is anything more than evil. My point is that this situation is far more complex than a simple battle between good and evil. It’s very easy for us as non-participants to make judgements about what should or shouldn’t have happened, but to the people on the ground it doesn’t make a whole lot of difference. When you’ve been forced out of your home and had to leave everything behind, you’ll probably have a different view of things than some IT bods on an internet forum.

but to the people on the ground it doesn’t make a whole lot of difference

I think it does make a difference to the Ukrainian people knowing that: i) other countries around the world understand what Russia is doing and condemn it as evil; ii) other countries do whatever they can to help, such as imposing economic sanctions and sending aid or weapons. What I think they would find extremely demoralizing would be seeing people saying, “Yeah, it’s really terrible but there’s nothing we can do without making fish-and-chips prices rise so maybe you could just surrender and we can put this bother behind us.”

It’s very easy for us as non-participants to make judgements about what should or shouldn’t have happened,

Indeed. Invasion and killing of civilians shouldn’t have happened. Not everything has to be complicated. Putin is doing bad things to expand Russia and its influence. And as for people on the ground, if you were in Finland, Esonia, Latvia, Lithuania would you be phlegmatic and blaming a defensive alliance for this?

I think Daz has a fair point here, however much we dislike it we do need to keep some channels of communication open. I don’t agree that diplomacy is preventing a wider war though – I think the primary thing in that regard is Putins nukes unfortunately.

, however much we dislike it we do need to keep some channels of communication open.

I don’t think that’s in dispute. What are ‘our’ as in the west’s actual objectives here? I’d say ranked:

1. Not to have a war with Russia. Looking less easy as time goes on but only upside of this would be not having to worry about climate change any more.

2. To minimise casualties, Ukranian, Russian, anyoneelsian, including direct casualties of war and indirect through Chernobyl radiation etc.

3. For Russian influence/belligerence to be contained so Europe can continue in roughly its current form.

4. For Ukraine to continue as an independent country, albeit probably with reconfigured borders.

Lots of talking required to achieve any of the above.

however much we dislike it we do need to keep some channels of communication open

NATO is trying to. Apparently, Russian military leaders refuse to take phone calls from U.S. counterparts. That’s not a good thing.

I agree lots of talking required, but that will only come after Russia has been fought to a standstill. The precondition for any settlement with Russia is that they have be fought to a point where they can’t win militarily. It seems to me that is their primary aim. Any talks at the moment are just to allow them time to regroup.

Yep, do some more killing to stop the killing.

Yep, do some more killing to stop the killing.

Cities are being attacked by the Russian army. What would you propose to minimise casualties?

Cities are being attacked by the Russian army. What would you propose to minimise casualties

Make it so they can’t.

Loitering drones… I think we’ll see more.

Not sure what air defense changes we’ll see though.

I don’t doubt that Ukraine isn’t perfect and could do some things better. That doesn’t justify invasion, genocide, war crimes and ethnic cleansing though.

We (our leaders ) need to call out every lie, every falsehood, every fake argument from Russia. It boils my piss when news sites report what Russia says, without pointing out it is completely false.

They need long range cruise missile capability, counter artillery radar and capability, plus more radar long range Air defence.

We (our leaders ) need to call out every lie, every falsehood, every fake argument from Russia.

While we send millions/billions to them for their oil and gas. Which do you think they will be most bothered about, some harsh criticism, or cold hard cash?

That too. We have to be willing to take the consequences to defend European Democracy

They need long range cruise missile capability, counter artillery radar and capability, plus more radar long range Air defence.

They do but that’s not a quick fix. It would take years to achieve some of those capabilities.

They need more Javelins, NLAWs and drones for now. Every Bayraktar the Turk’s have.

Send every bit of ex-Soviet armour and artillery that NATO has.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/bucha-massacre-ukraine-kyiv-russia

New article from The Spectator, adding some context to Russian form for murdering civilians to gain control.

When Sara, her three-year-old daughter, tried to grab her mother’s hand they shoved her aside. Milana’s son, who was 11 months old, just stared uncomprehendingly. ‘They were wearing masks and camouflage,’ Milana’s mother told me. ‘They forced us all to the floor at gunpoint. Milana was too terrified to speak. She just looked at me and mouthed the words “mama”. It was the last time any of us saw her.’

This if true is new to me

Brutality is a seam that runs through the Russian army even in peacetime. In my time as a correspondent in Russia in the 2000s, I spoke to several army recruits who said some of their cohorts were beaten so badly they were left with long-term disabilities and failing organs. According to one western report, at a time when such things were still possible, 290 Russian soldiers died of beatings administered by their superiors in just one year during the 2000s. Hundreds more committed suicides.

It’s how the Russian state operates, from the top down, so no real surprise.

I just wish western governments, especially ours, actually cut off the money, instead of weak window dressing. The whole system of shell companies and money laundering in the U.K. is so deeply embedded.

Brutality is a seam that runs through the Russian army even in peacetime.

Yeah, I’ve read and seen similar pieces before about the brutality of Russia recruitment and basic training, not so much hazing but systematic brutal and numbing violence seems to be the way they train their solidary. The pictures I’ve seen of Ukrainian atrocities, are similar to what they did in Chechnya

I just wish western governments, especially ours, actually cut off the money, instead of weak window dressing.

Be careful what you wish for. I don’t think anyone in this country is ready for the impacts of cutting off russian oil and gas. Putin’s not an idiot, he knows the UK and Europe are not about to plunge their economies into the abyss to show solidarity with the Ukrainians.

Putin’s not an idiot,

He is an idiot. A cunning and cruel idiot, but definitely an idiot.

He is an idiot.

If you say so. 🙄

Idiots generally don’t manage to manoevre themselves into a position of massive power like he has. We’d be much better off respecting that rather than underestimating him and calling him schoolyard names.

We’d be much better off respecting that rather than underestimating him and calling him schoolyard names.

Not underestimating I can sign up to. ‘Respect’? I don’t think so.

I don’t think anyone in this country is ready for the impacts of cutting off russian oil and gas.

I don’t even think it’s realistic tactic anyway.

Turn off the pipeline to EU from Russia. Cast about the world market to fill in the gaps, and buy it bulk from China and India. Where would they likely be getting it from? You’d still be paying Putin and it would only help domestic politics.

There’s been many a war since WW2 and no-one has yet used nukes. It’s not a given that they have to be deployed. Hopefully that will stay the case.

Sanctions are hurting, and will continue to hurt. I don’t believe that Putin thought they would be as painful as they are. And it will only get worse.

Putin’s not an idiot, he knows the UK and Europe are not about to plunge their economies into the abyss to show solidarity with the Ukrainians.

Not so sure.

Putin’s demand for gas payments in roubles evaporated after the Germans (and the French) refused to meet it last week.

At the time, the German government was preparing for gas rationing, considering 4 day weeks and briefing citizens on how to use less energy.

So, the will of the Western European economies is still strong, even in the face of Putin’s trump card on gas. And even though he’s now shown his hand, the rest of Europe is preparing strategies for living without Russian energy.

Outside of that, contingencies are also being made for other natural resources like nickel and aluminium that come from Russia in significant quantities.

Full economic meltdown is looking less and less likely for the West but sanctions could bite the Russian economy still harder.

Idiots generally don’t manage to manoevre themselves into a position of massive power like he has.

That only shows he wasnt an idiot in the past. Plenty of dictators got themselves into positions of power before making idiotic mistakes and getting themselves retired.
His recent plans have shown some rather gaping holes eg its pretty evident now that he really did think it would be a couple of days to take Kyiv and then have the country surrender to him.

There’s been many a war since WW2

Not quite like this…?

We’d be much better off respecting that

I genuinely see no reason to show Putin any respect TBH.

‘Respect’? I don’t think so.

Respect the fact that he’s not an idiot != Respect him as a person.

Perhaps try reading a post before jumping to conclusions?

I genuinely see no reason to show Putin any respect TBH.

See above.

Honestly this whole thread is ridiculous. It’s impossible to make even a simple point without being labelled as on one side or other, good or bad, or whatever.

Not quite like this…?

Korea and Vietnam have some parallels.

Perhaps try reading a post before jumping to conclusions?

Honestly this whole thread is ridiculous. It’s impossible to make even a simple point without being labelled as on one side or other, good or bad, or whatever.

Perhaps try following your own advice. Where did I label you as anything?

Daz – we don’t need to respect him to understand him. I’m fearful of him, without doubt, as he commands a nuclear arsenal.

I don’t respect someone who’s only method of dealing with the world is fear and threats.

This isn’t about showing solidarity, it’s about stopping genocide in Europe and trying to shape a world without constant war on our doorstep. How the fallout impacts our population is a political decision for our government. Thankfully we still have the ability to choose one of those, although this current bunch don’t really like being held to account.

There’s been many a war since WW2 and no-one has yet used nukes. It’s not a given that they have to be deployed. Hopefully that will stay the case.

How much are you willing to gamble that you’re right when the result if you’re wrong is the destruction of human civilisation and >90% of the global population dead (almost 100% here in the UK)?

Honestly I read some of this stuff here and it seems like some of you think a nuclear war wouldn’t be that bad. Like it’ll just wipe out a few cities and then we’ll rebuild them and carry on as we did before. It’s madness.

we don’t need to respect him

Jeez. Again see above. Nowhere did I say we should respect him.

Chechnya was similar, but we gave less of a crap about it. Which I’m sure emboldened Putin no end.

The Chechens were not as well equipped to put up as much resistance. Pity really, we could have sorted all this out in the 90’s

How much are you willing to gamble that you’re right when the result if you’re wrong is the destruction of human civilisation and >90% of the global population dead (almost 100% here in the UK)?

I’m not gambling anything. Putin is throwing the dice and we all are just watching. The real question is who in Russia is willing to carry out such a destructive order should it come?

There is no winning in an action like that, so what would be the point?

So, the will of the Western European economies is still strong, even in the face of Putin’s trump card on gas.

Yes, and the heating season is finishing about now so we will have several months of reduced vulnerability.

Putin may not be an idiot, but he has badly miscalculated the war, surrounding himself with corrupt yesmen insulated him from the realities of the invasion.
Now hes in a grinding war of attrition that he has to win.

Brutality is his only recourse now as he tries to cow the Ukrainians into submission

This should have been expected, the captured Donbass regions are run by warlords/militia who are able to operate above the law

One reason why Ukranians didnt want to surrender at the start and why appeasement of Putin was never an option

East Ukrainians saw that the Russian-controlled zone turned into a nightmare with warlord gangs robbing, killing and torturing. With no protection and no security. With no employment either, because businesses were destroyed by pro-Russian warlords. You could join them or starve pic.twitter.com/AAwz77aPw1

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 16, 2022

The real question is who in Russia is willing to carry out such a destructive order should it come?

So you’d be willing to risk going to war with Russia on the basis that no one will carry out Putin’s orders to use nuclear weapons? Is that what you’re saying, because if it is it’s deranged.

Honestly I read some of this stuff here and it seems like some of you think a nuclear war wouldn’t be that bad. Like it’ll just wipe out a few cities and then we’ll rebuild them and carry on as we did before. It’s madness.

I try really hard  to see your point of view, but you don’t help with comments like that.  I think I have a pretty good handle on how horrific nuclear war would be and have lived a good part of my life under the very real threat if it.  Seeing that threat return is awful and is giving me sleepless nights.  I’d imagine that applies to lots of people on here . There is a very real and worrying risk of it happening and we absolutely need to do everything we can to prevent it.

Perhaps where we differ is in thinking sacrificing Ukraine is the answer. Give the rest of us some credit, you don’t have a monopoly on fearing nuclear war or being realistic about what that means.

and the heating season is finishing

Heating our homes isn’t really the problem though is it?

I think this conflict has made an uncomfortably strong case for continued nuclear deterrents.

Seems very likely the West would in there now, if Putin didn’t have nukes.

Likewise Putin may have thought twice if Ukraine still had nukes.

And all our commitments to defend a nuke-free Ukraine don’t seem to have come to much.

So you’d be willing to risk going to war with Russia on the basis that no one will carry out Putin’s orders to use nuclear weapons? Is that what you’re saying, because if it is it’s deranged.

Sigh.

I’m not risking anything. Please read my post again. I am not gambling, or risking, or wanting, or any other negative verb you might try and pin on me.

I am watching. And hoping. Same as very nearly everybody else.