Ukraine

Should those of us that don’t support the current elected party invite an invasion by France or Germany?

Wouldn’t be the first time. Well, it was the Netherlands, but it happened.

The link I posted a couple above is an interesting read regarding the last election, in the East in particular and Russian influence pre war.

All largely irrelevant to the invasion, as interesting as that is, it’s all Putin.

Too late now as the reality has set in. Give Putin the buffer zone.

Also in their opinion polls on referendum regarding joining NATO, South and East consistently voted against. Only the West and Centre consistently vote for joining NATO. The country is split.

Source: International Republican Institute Survey. Interesting read that but just opinion polls.

Zelenskys parliamentary party took 43% of the vote… giving them 254 seats in a 450 seat parliament.

Eh?

molgrips

Zelenskys parliamentary party took 43% of the vote… giving them 254 seats in a 450 seat parliament.

Eh?

Something to do with the proportional representation.

molgrips
Full Member
Zelenskys parliamentary party took 43% of the vote… giving them 254 seats in a 450 seat parliament.

Eh?

what’s not to get? 225 seats for the win.

There were 2 elections, a Presidential Election (Zelensky won the first round with 30% then won the shootout with Poroshenko with 75% in round 2) and a Parliamentary election(the party took 254 seats in the Rada, equating to 43% of the total vote.). I posted the results to both.

Chewie – the buffer zone is not ours to give. It belongs to the Ukrainian people – and right now they don’t seem to be in a mood for backing down.

Give Putin the buffer zone.

Appeasement has always been so successful in the past, I am sure it will work this time as well.

Give Putin the buffer zone

East Germany too.

That was a handy buffer zone for nearly 50 years.

Democracy, liberalism and freedom of speech was never their thing during that time either. Instead they embraced food shortages, internment, appalling health care and state spying on a scale never before seen.

Just give it back to Putin as he’s got nukes?

Chewie – the buffer zone is not ours to give. It belongs to the Ukrainian people – and right now they don’t seem to be in a mood for backing down.

Yes, it’s for the Ukrainian to decide but at the moment they are not winning or causing a stalemate. They don’t have bargaining power on their side.

Appeasement has always been so successful in the past, I am sure it will work this time as well.

It will work for now.
In the long run it will be China that the world needs to worry.

East Germany too.

No NATO members have been invaded. Fact. Not even in future.

Just give it back to Putin as he’s got nukes?

What other solution do they have?

Yes, it’s for the Ukrainian to decide

Spot on. And millions of them have decided to stay and fight the invasion, so pretty clear what ‘they’ have decided.

Many more millions have fled West, so pretty clear what they have decided too.

There are not massive refugee columns heading East, nor are their masses of Ukrainians surrendering to the Russians

By their collective actions it’s clear that the Ukrainians want nothing to do with Russia and nothing to do with a buffer zone.

It’s really pretty simple.

And let’s not just ignore this invasion and focus instead on China.

There will be no more powerful deterrent to Chinese action in Taiwan than a successful and unified response to Putin.

No NATO members have been invaded. Fact. Not even in future.

Exactly. NATO works.

That’s why Finland and Sweden are now considering joining.

Putin has made a huge mistake acting against a sovereign state because it makes other states feel vulnerable and is bringing about exactly what he was trying to avoid (NATO enlargement).

Spot on. And millions of them have decided to stay and fight the invasion, so pretty clear what ‘they’ have decided.

They can decide as much as they wish but within the framework control by Russia.

And let’s not just ignore this invasion and focus instead on China.
There will be no more powerful deterrent to Chinese action in Taiwan than a successful and unified response to Putin.

What is there to deter? They all have nukes.
If the West/NATO really want to contain China, then they need Russia on their side. Not to push Russia to China.

Exactly. NATO works.

Yes, it works but Ukraine is not a NATO member and will Not be.

That’s why Finland and Sweden are now considering joining.

Considering. They can consider as much as they wish.

Putin has made a huge mistake acting against a sovereign state because it makes other states feel vulnerable and is bringing about exactly what he was trying to avoid (NATO enlargement).

Strategically no mistake. Tactically (mistake) perhaps by assuming that he could just walk in.

No NATO members have been invaded. Fact

Well I guess Finland had better get that application in quickly.

Is chewie saying that the occupants of Kherson should just let themselves be ruled by Putin?

Residents of occupied Kherson block the path of a Russian military convoy and force it to turn away. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/jvT1jRXnO6

— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) March 20, 2022

^^The bravery on display gets to me every time.

Well I guess Finland had better get that application in quickly.

I think they might get away with joining as the are not really that populated and not that “strategic” in their position. Nevertheless, they really don’t want to end up with minor nuke on their land.

Is chewie saying that the occupants of Kherson should just let themselves be ruled by Putin?

No, they don’t have to cheer the Russian but they have to accept the fact they are under Russian control.

I think they might get away with joining as the are not really that populated and not that “strategic” in their position. Nevertheless, they really don’t want to end up with minor nuke on their land.

They are far more concerned and justifiably so, in being the subject of a full invasion.

Putin wants Finland back in the fold

Once he has extracted himself from the mess in Ukraine they’ll be next

If his plan had succeeded and he’d taken Ukraine ias easily as he thought he might, he’d be that much closer

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-wants-to-regain-finland-for-russia-adviser-says-9224273.html

Hes underestimated how unified the response has been towards his war.

They are far more concerned and justifiably so, in being the subject of a full invasion.

Russia has not invaded Finland since they last fought so I see no evidence of Russia wanting to invade Finland. Unless Finland is really that naive to consider the prospect of being invaded.

Putin wants Finland back in the fold

Nope. As long as they are not existential threat.

Russia has not invaded Finland since they last fought

erm….

…but they have to accept the fact they are under Russian control.

What?

What?

If that is not control I don’t know what that is.
Unless the situation can have alternative description.

lol

@chewkw Acknowledge maybe, accept no.

Nope. As long as they are not existential threat

Ukraine is not an existential threat.

Ukraine is not an existential threat.

Yes, they are if they are NATO member state.
Even intention to join NATO is a threat as Russia is not going to wait for them to join before taking action.
Refer to Monroe Doctrine.

I once described Russia and China as the adolescents of the international system, constantly locking themselves in the bathroom and yelling that everyone thinks they're fat.
Funnier a decade or so ago. 🙁

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 21, 2022

What?

Well quite, precisely no one on this thread is qualified to say what Ukraine should/has to accept.

None of of even really know for certain what the primary Ukrainan goals are, which might be anything from repelling the invasion force to beyond the borders, to stretching and eroding the invasion force to breaking point within the borders to force a more favourable negotiation environment.

Has anyone seen much from what’s going on inside Belarus?

Ok chewie you refer to it again and again. Explain the Monroe Doctrine as it stands, if it stands, now. Not when it was written in 1823 but now and how it applies to the situation in Ukraine.

Refer to Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe doctrine is utterly irrelevant. You need to stop reflexively bringing it up. Let’s face it, if you think some very dubious U.S. policy from 200 years ago is justification for the deliberate mass-murder of civilians and ethnic cleansing, you need to check what century you are living in.

Ukraine is a sovereign state. They are not a NATO member. This is not about NATO membership, it’s about Russia refusing to recognize Ukraine as a sovereign state.

The thing is. Putin (& it appears chekw) are a bit like the guy in the pub who asks if you spilt their pint.

It doesn’t matter if you actually did, it’s about whether they think you did ( or just fancy a Friday night fight to look hard in front of their mates) that matters….

As weak as the chekw / Russian argument is when examined from The outside, if they believe it, then their actions are justified ( in their opinion anyway) .

It’s hard to get someone who
Is entrenched in a position to step
Back and see how “silly” it looks to
Everyone else. That’s the sad situation we find ourselves in here, that’s why finding a settlement that allows putin to save face is crucial to a resolution ( imho obviously)

None of of even really know for certain what the primary Ukrainan goals are, which might be anything from repelling the invasion force to beyond the borders, to stretching and eroding the invasion force to breaking point within the borders to force a more favourable negotiation environment.

The best hope is for a stalemate which will force negotiation but I guess Putin/Russia might want to prevent that but a surrender, in order to have upper hand in negotiation.

Ok chewie you refer to it again and again. Explain the Monroe Doctrine as it stands, if it stands, now. Not when it was written in 1823 but now and how it applies to the situation in Ukraine.

It is exactly as it is albeit from the Putin’s perspective. No NATO in his buffer zone or backyard.

Ukraine is a sovereign state. They are not a NATO member. This is not about NATO membership, it’s about Russia refusing to recognize Ukraine as a sovereign state.

The world knows Ukraine is a sovereign state but they are also located next to a powerful nation with nukes. Regardless of whether it is about NATO membership, wrong President being elected etc, Russia/Putin sees them as existential threats and that’s a good enough reason to invade. Notice that Not even an EU or a single NATO state dares to enter the conflict openly/directly? That’s because they have nukes and no one wants to be vaporised if situation escalate.

The thing is. Putin (& it appears chekw) are a bit like the guy in the pub who asks if you spilt their pint.

Focus on Ukraine, focus on Russia but try not to focus on me as I am just presenting the Russian logic, since there is no one here to present their logic. I ain’t no Russian or Ukrainian. I am merely presenting the realist perspective. Everything I said almost came through and I am telling everyone the possibilities. You can reject what I said regarding the possibilities but focus on the topic not the person. As I may sound like supporting Putin’s/Russia that’s because I am seeing them from their perspective and letting others decide how to consider what’s the best logic for this current poor state of affair.

As I said this is no domestic politics but of powerful nation state(s) with nukes. One wrong move and we are all going to be vaporised.

Russia/Putin sees them as existential threats and that’s a good enough reasons to invade.

It’s not. After WW2 the UN was founded to put an end to nonsense like this.

https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

The thing is. Putin (& it appears chekw) are a bit like the guy in the pub who asks if you spilt their pint.

They’re actually more like somebody spilt their grandfather’s pint but they still have a grievance about it. Let’s face it, if you need to cite the 200 year old Monroe doctrine to justify ethnic cleansing, you are pretty desperate.

It’s not. After WW2 the UN was founded to put an end to nonsense like this.

Not so with cold war and the current situation. All the UN charter etc has no impact on a powerful nation with nukes.

Let’s face it, if you need to cite the 200 year old Monroe doctrine to justify ethnic cleansing, you are pretty desperate.

I am afraid the reality is that Russia (with nukes) decided that this is their “Monroe doctrine”. As I said No other opposing powerful nation with nukes is allowed in the Western hemisphere apart from those NATO members, and especially not near America.

Stop feeding the troll 🤷‍♂️

Ukraine gave all its nuclear warheads to Russia (the decommissioning was paid for and assisted by the USA & UK).

and especially not near America.

America is it’s own continent, the richest nation on the planet and can more or less do as it pleases. Regardless of what China thinks.  Russia is an ungovernable geographical accident with an economy the size of a middling European state. The two aren’t equal in any sense of the word. Putin may think he’s a modern Stalin, but the reality of money his country owes is going to come knocking very soon. His army has already lost, it’ll run of supplies soon, and replacements – even if they do come from China won’t come soon enough. and he’s going to be forced to back out.

It’s the only reason he wants to negotiate a settlement now.

I can't stop thinking about this extraordinary intervention from Mary Robinson on the Late Late last week and how no one seems to have heard what she said, including Ryan Tubridy, who brushed off the words 'our children will have no future' like he had a cameo in #DontLookUp. pic.twitter.com/xUCd1veyEH

— Cllr Carolyn Moore (@carolynmoore_ie) March 20, 2022

Cant argue with that/\/\