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Putin thinks half of Africa is his too Mali , Burkina Faso all have Russia backed movements going on Mali for years it's just not on our radar. The french had been battling Russian backed terrorists for a good while they have withdrawan I believe now.
FWIW, there are claims Ukraine took back around 2000km2 today
Appeasement does not work
If only there was an example from the last 80 to 90 years!
A near Godwin but not quite.
Olga of Kyiv was actually an ethnic Scandinavian Viking, although recent DNA research has shown that Vikings encompassed a number of different ethnic groups, including British.
Point of order, Viking was a profession/occupation not a race. So ethnic Scandinavian, Goth, Gaul or Angle could all be Vikings.
Pursuing the total defeat of Putin pretty much guarantees a nuclear war.
How do you know that?
Has anyone seen anything relating to RU POWs? I'm still looking and not see anything reported.
They must have thousands and thousands of them. Maybe RU's strategy is to flood ukraine with POWs and force them to use resource and manpower keeping the secure, fed and warm
Putin thinks Ukriane is Russia.
Yeah, pretty much what I said.
Point of order, Viking was a profession/occupation not a race. So ethnic Scandinavian, Goth, Gaul or Angle could all be Vikings.
Yeah, also pretty much what I said, if you’d read what I posted about recent DNA research. In order to clarify, and so that anyone reading through the link I posted above, who may have gone past it, here’s the hyperlink within it that clarifies.
The question of the use of nuclear weapons is quite complicated and I’m not sure the Russian chain of command will just let it happen - whilst Putin and some Generals may order their use, it’s not just a case of pressing a button and kaboom.
They are complicated weapon systems that need programming, arming, targeting and launching - this is the same army that can ‘misplace’ a million uniforms. Expecting every piece of a complex weapon systems to be suitably maintained, fully functional and the operators all trained and motivated might be stretching the truth.
There would also be probable consequences through the International Court of Justice in The Hague for those involved.
So, we all force Ukraine to sign a truce with Russia. Russia keeps Donbas & Crimea.
What happens then? Russia still has Nuclear weapons. It rebuilds its military & in a few years decides to rattle its sabres again, this time over The Baltic states. Do we appease or stand up to him?
Appeasement isn’t a successful strategy to an imperialist nuclear armed bully.
Whenever anyone has stood up to him, he backs down.
He loves to waive his nuclear sausage & threaten people. As long as we set firm sensible boundaries that is our best bet for avoiding nuclear Armageddon.
FWIW, there are claims Ukraine took back around 2000km2 today
Russian troops saying they've been on the front for 7 months with no rotations
Most of us would have a meltdown if we didn't have our weekends
Lots of videos of RU POWS (and dead) Ukrainians saying they are malnourished & desperate for food
Mobilisation appears to have come too late, Ru troops are broken
LPR troops that retreated from Liman are being refused entry to Russian held bases
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577268284335869952?t=XwEARkJh2mKOr8xj2Ys6ew&s=19
The Kherson from was supposed to be held by Russia's best troops, Putin had prioritised that region over Luhansk and they've had months to dig in.
Yet their lines are crumbling
The Kherson from was supposed to be held by Russia’s best troops, Putin had prioritised that region over Luhansk and they’ve had months to dig in.
Yet their lines are crumbling
I know, right? Really significant stuff
Russian air support seems to be similarly exhausted
Crimeans are exciting the country to avoid the draft
Those that are drafted are already being treated like crap before they get anywhere near the fighting
https://twitter.com/Mykola65109280/status/1574688662889054208?t=rsGj4cXR5fFwZrV2JK6QIg&s=19
https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1576892097483137024?t=BbsdanL8ay3UniOfHxMbfA&s=19
Thing is though, if Ukraine do re-take Crimea it's going to end up another Sudentenland (like it already was) for any future Russian nutjob to go back to war over. And Ukraine will know this so there'll just be another massive arms race.
Pro Ukrainian take in what might happen in Kherson and why
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324136220839937?t=Z9gF8XoJtHb_Mg5gadYHOQ&s=19
And Ukraine will know this so there’ll just be another massive arms race.
Good for the UK as we whore ourselves for weapon sales.
Id really like this to not be true
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1577391890160570368?t=c9XiVvqHN_lTqVdTQXEN5A&s=19
Appeasement isn’t a successful strategy to an imperialist nuclear armed bully.
The calculus of ‘appeasement’ (stupid outdated phrase BTW) is completely different with a nuclear armed state than it was with Germany in the 1930s. Would we have rushed to war with hitler if he had thousands of intercontinental nuclear missiles at his disposal? I doubt it. Negotiation and compromise is the only thing that will avoid further escalation. Using force and getting into another arms race will not make us safer.
Yeah but what’s the compromise?
No one has yet come up with a realistic scenario where Putin accepts defeat without going nuclear
Your glass is really half empty isn't it? There's a whole series of alternative outcomes.
Would I want us all to die in a nuclear holocaust, or let my family wait here for the Russians to nibble their way across Europe, devastating towns and cities, torturing and raping, until they get to me and my wife and kids? That's the alternative.
dazh
Full Member
Appeasement isn’t a successful strategy to an imperialist nuclear armed bully.The calculus of ‘appeasement’ (stupid outdated phrase BTW) is completely different with a nuclear armed state than it was with Germany in the 1930s. Would we have rushed to war with hitler if he had thousands of intercontinental nuclear missiles at his disposal? I doubt it. Negotiation and compromise is the only thing that will avoid further escalation. Using force and getting into another arms race will not make us safer.
Nobody "rushed to war" with Hitler. For those those of us with close family who died in WWII that's a crass comment.
And to reposition your question, how would it have played out if Hitler "had thousands of intercontinental nuclear missiles" [i]pointing at him[/i]?
I agree, there's a very real danger that Putin will, when cornered, elect for world annihilation over defeat. But then again, conceding him territory will not dissuade him from further expansionism. And if we're so sure that he'll ultimately accept self destruction rather than losing face then isn't the choice just down to when he launches Armageddon?
So are the scenarios
(a) land is ceded to a nuclear-power leader who will stop at literally nothing to get everything he wants - in which case we're doomed anyway, eventually
or
(b) every effort is made to stop said leader now, in the hope that doomsday is somehow averted?
To me, option (b) is the only one with any hope of survival in the long run.
Edited to (try to) correct bad formatting
Yeah but what’s the compromise?
I’m not going to pretend to have the answer to that, but there has to be one. The alternative is collective suicide, which would be much more stupid than both sides swallowing some pride.
I think the compromise is letting Russia get away with killing 1000s, torture, forced deportations and ethnic cleansing.....
Anenxiing whatever bits of countries they fancy and destroying any nation they don't like
I’m not going to pretend to have the answer to that, but there has to be one. The alternative is collective suicide, which would be much more stupid than both sides swallowing some pride.
Do you think Mr Putin is going to swallow some pride?
Whilst a limited nuclear event is quite likely but that is unknown, what is looking more likely is there are quite similar conditions to 1917. An unmotivated army not sure what they're fighting for.
The calculus of ‘appeasement’ (stupid outdated phrase BTW) is completely different with a nuclear armed state than it was with Germany in the 1930s. Would we have rushed to war with hitler if he had thousands of intercontinental nuclear missiles at his disposal?
How many Jews would you have let Hitler kill? Obviously you would have had to let him kill some.
Your glass is really half empty isn’t it?
Yeah. The very real prospect of nuclear war, the collapse of civilisation and starvation of almost everyone on the planet causes a little bit of anxiety.
every effort is made to stop said leader now, in the hope that doomsday is somehow averted?
What do you mean by ‘every effort’? I mean I agree, but ‘every effort’ also includes negotiation.
As someone who's from a country who has had a murderous imperialist neighbour I can assure you the Ukrainians will fight to get all their land back.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know if there are any charities that are helping the Ukrainian government care for the huge numbers of POWs they're taking?
How many Jews would you have let Hitler kill?
Ridiculous comment. ‘We’, as a nation, let despotic regimes kill people all the time. How many have died across the world when we could have stepped in? Rwanda, Bosnia, Myanmar, Libya, Iraq (in the early days), Palestine, Syria, Chile etc. The list is endless. Millions have died since the end of WW2 whilst we stood aside and watched or even worse sold weapons to some of these regimes.
dazh
Full Member
Curious as to why everyone on here is so celebratory about the collapse of the Russian army
Because the Russians are unambiguously the bad guys in this and Ukraine is unambiguously the victim of violent aggression and attempted genocide. Cheering the good guys when they win is what normal people do.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know if there are any charities that are helping the Ukrainian government care for the huge numbers of POWs they’re taking?
No, but an occasional poster @jkomo or similar had arranged some first aid shipments previously. Maybe they have heard something? Assuming someone can remember the correct user name.
Ridiculous comment. ‘We’, as a nation, let despotic regimes kill people all the time. How many have died across the world when we could have stepped in
I’m guessing from this your answer is the full 6 million
The list is endless. Millions have died since the end of WW2 whilst we stood aside and watched or even worse sold weapons to some of these regimes.
Yet you're ok with it happening again?
Russia started this insane war, now they are losing, the sooner it's over the better
The West tried ignoring the seizure of Donetsk & Crimea, it didn't work, Putin only came back determined to take the entire country
We’, as a nation, let despotic regimes kill people all the time.
So your argument is that we should be consistent in our inaction? Why?
Russians still falling back
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1577426159955955712?t=ggiaiC1givd9ppg1rvRnVA&s=19
The other problem with allowing Putin to get what he wants with the threat of nukes is it will embolden the likes of North Korea to do similar.
At some point a line has to be drawn and like it or not sooner is probably better than later, when multiple countries are pushing at neighbouring countries with impunity because they have nukes.
Ridiculous comment. ‘We’, as a nation, let despotic regimes kill people all the time. How many have died across the world when we could have stepped in? Rwanda, Bosnia, Myanmar, Libya, Iraq (in the early days), Palestine, Syria, Chile etc. The list is endless. Millions have died since the end of WW2 whilst we stood aside and watched or even worse sold weapons to some of these regimes.
Ahhhh, the old whataboutery response rears it head in yet another thread.
Never play poker, Daz
Another excellent thread from Mick Ryan.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1577528523580809222
There's propaganda value in discussions like this ^^
Also worth noting that a possible, albeit unlikely, outcome from this conflict is nuclear war — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
"It is very positive that somebody like Elon Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of this situation," said spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63126550
Yes, use of tactical nuclear weapons is a possibility, but we've had that discussion.
In the circumstances in the Ukraine, is President Putin going to launch nukes into territory and a population that he's claiming for his own to protect it from fascists?
There's no military advantage to tactical nukes either.
The only wildcard is President Putin's state of mind, and none of us can discuss that from a position of knowledge, can I suggest that we move on?
Snihurivka withdrawal is a big one! The Russian strategy in Kherson has been a link of Fortress towns, with defences in between.
Snihurivka was a big Fortress, defending the corner of the Inhulets River.
From the Mick Ryan thread he talks about Recon.
Which I know nothing about.
How hard is that to do well? (Recon, not 'knowing nothing' which I find easy)
There’s propaganda value in discussions like this
Yeh very much so, Russia has dedicated rail cars for transportation which are allegedly* not in the video. Which indicates (if accurate) who the intended audience is, and who else is meant to pick up (different) messaging from it. The White House are claiming there is no sign of change, but there are some fairly level headed assessments that theres a good chance of a test in the Arctic. Which is probably intended to try and "dislocate support".
Movement of such things is not only normal, but normal in the UK with a dedicated 'spotter' community and associated website.
Sometimes you can predict when discussion point will be raised on STW by seeing pro Russian channels messaging, followed by certain 'types' of Western channels, followed by wider general 'chats'.
Not dismissing the risk mind you. Before I get accused of being ok with extrapolation x, y, or z. And no, its doesnt logically mean any of those extrapolations.
*If anyone can counter that, with a source, not a rant, feel free.
Sounds right.
The reason we all laugh at RT TV propaganda is that we are not the Audience.
These things all happen on multiple levels.
It appears that the Russian forces are either retreating (in good order) or are suffering a rout. Either one is as likely as the other, we're all trying to second guess through a fog of propaganda and Telegraph channels.
I can see Putin passing the blame for the failure of these forces to hold territory onto the newly created leaders of the annexed parts of Ukraine. They seem to have been created solely for that purpose anyway. (some-one to point the finger at who isn't him, or one of his cronies)
All the images and twitter feeds I looked at with regards to that nuke convoy seem to suggest it is some of the armoured vehicles that are associated with nukes being transported. Nothing about the nukes themselves. Havent seem this mentioned anywhere, but could it be they are just short on vehicles so moving every asset they can to the front line?
And I'm glad some on this thread aren't on the negotiating table.
I can't see the use of a tactical nuke, unless its dropped on kyiv, and then god knows what the world will do. I think its far more likely that the nuclear plant near Kherson will have an 'accident' if troops there are surrounded or forced to withdraw.
Continues the theme of using energy as a weapon, and general Ru strategy of trying to control it (or destroy others access to it)
How hard is that to do well?
Depends how good the other side are. If they are a bunch of uninterested conscripts using unencrypted radios then a lot easier than against people who take it seriously.
You also need to have a decent command and intelligence structure to collate the reports and figure out what it means in total.
The Ukrainians do have an advantage here since there is a load of very expensive kit flying around just the other side of the border listening in.
If he uses nukes in Ukraine and fails to reverse things, won't that send a very strong signal to China that Eastern Russia is up for grabs?
Havent seem this mentioned anywhere, but could it be they are just short on vehicles so moving every asset they can to the front line?
There was some photos short(ish) range ballistic weapons were being moved around but it wasnt clear where or when those photos were taken.
I linked to a report which pretty much said that about not just the vehicles but also the troops. The nuclear defence units are, in theory, an elite unit so the Russians may be choosing to throw them into the fray. Whether they will be much use is debatable since their training and equipment is presumably more aimed at handling a raid from fairly lightly equipped special forces (since they would be way behind Russian lines normally) rather than an armoured brigade attack.
A lesson Russia is learning the hard way. They are using Spetznaz on the frontlines to prop up their lacking infantry. Once you are in a trench subjected to Artillery, you are just a soldier and your SF training has less worth.
And I’m glad some on this thread aren’t on the negotiating table.
Is there a negotiating table? Or hidden diplomatic channels?
I saw Zelenskyy made some sort of decree saying no negotiation with the current President of the Russian Federation.
There WILL be a negotiation at some point. All wars end that way. As above, not all messages are meant for all audiences.
Is there a negotiating table? Or hidden diplomatic channels?
Right from the start, Putin made it very clear that he had no serious interest in negotiating. He made maximalist demands that he knew would not be accepted and he has continued that pattern. His record of violating agreements is obvious to Ukraine so they will not accept anything he says unless there it is backed up by Ukrainian troops with tanks and guns being on the ground to enforce it.
So, no, there isn't a negotiating table because Putin refuses to negotiate in good faith.
There WILL be a negotiation at some point. All wars end that way.
Apart from the biggest one. Unconditional surrender is hardly a negotiation.
Edit cross posts
Theres obviously some form of communications in place, if only to negotiate prisoner swaps
Russia losing in Ukraine does not mean all out nuclear war. There is an alternative.
https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1577582774592102400
Theres another man who wants to watch what he drinks Mikhail Khodorkovsky in light of those comments.
The statement from Zelenskyy say he wont discuss negotiations this Russia while hes in power is the key. Hes offering a small glimmer of hope to all Russian forces that there is a way out rather than further bloodshed and loss. Effectively offering a simple way out to someone brave enough to leave a window open in a high building.
Khordokovsky has had to watch what he drinks since 2001.
Look back at these comments in a year.
Who thinks:
1/ Putin is still in power.
2/ There has been some negotiation.
For me, the obvious off ramp is Zelensky agreeing to stand down as President. It allows Putin to claim he achieved his aim, whilst stil giving Ukraine the victory.
Not sure Poootin will take an off-ramp, just full Dukes of Hazzard.
I cant see any way Zelensky will step down or be asked to step by the people of Ukraine. Im would hate to call this anyway and the moment and with any bet there is always the outside chance of the unexpected.
For me, the obvious off ramp is Zelensky agreeing to stand down as President. It allows Putin to claim he achieved his aim, whilst stil giving Ukraine the victory.
I can't see that ever happening.
The obvious flaw is that in the next election there's going to be very little "pro Russia" on the ballot paper, even with a Kremlin candidate, Kremlin money, and Kremlin influence in the counting I doubt they could pull off replacing him with anyone standing on anything other than a pro-West/NATO manifesto.
At the moment I think the likely end is a rout by the Russian military on the ground, coup (even if the next President is just a continuation in all but expansionist terms), and then repartitions paid in the form of natural gas to Europe to fund the rebuilding work. I think Putin knows this and that's why Nord Stream was sabotaged (they'd already turned it off so there was no short term reason for doing that).
For me, the obvious off ramp is Zelensky agreeing to stand down as President. It allows Putin to claim he achieved his aim, whilst stil giving Ukraine the victory.
But even if Putin agreed to withdraw his forces in exchange for that he's not going to withdraw to a pre-2014 state (there's no way he could sell that as a success) so unless Ukraine are forced into it (by the West stopping supplying lethal aid) it doesn't make sense for them to agree to that as there would be nothing stopping Russia rebuilding it's military and trying again in a couple of years. Ukraine wouldn't be in NATO by then and it's highly unlikely a separate defence pact would be signed by them with the US
then repartitions paid
How would that be enforced?
I mean it was difficult in the 1920's and the French occupied parts of Germany.
For me, the obvious off ramp is Zelensky agreeing to stand down as President. It allows Putin to claim he achieved his aim, whilst stil giving Ukraine the victory.
That's not going to happen. Ukraine is not going to make any concessions to Russia. The off-ramp is for Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukrainian territory. This whole thing is Putin's doing, it's not Ukraine's responsibility to help him out.
then repartitions paid
How would that be enforced?
I mean it was difficult in the 1920's and the French occupied parts of Germany.
For me, the obvious off ramp is Zelensky agreeing to stand down as President.
The democratically elected president steps down and Putin stays in power?
How would that be enforced?
I mean it was difficult in the 1920’s and the French occupied parts of Germany
Poland has just reminded Germany of an overdue payment from WW2
Poland has just reminded Germany of an overdue payment from WW2
At the end of the 2nd WW, Germany was occupied and it's government removed.
Are you suggesting that NATO or Ukraine invade Russia, occupy and remove it's government?
Are you suggesting that NATO or Ukraine invade Russia, occupy and remove it’s government?
I didn't think so. I was underlining your point that reparations are difficult to enforce, apologies if I misunderstood
They seem to have been created solely for that purpose anyway.
Annexing parts of Russia allows Putin to use more soldiers there without formally declaring war, as the Russian legal system allows for more deployment on Russian soil during peacetime. For example, if you are a soldier who volunteered to fight under contract (the contractniks) then you can, under peacetime rules, end your contract and go home at any time, unless you are fighting on Russian soil. Then you have to stay and Russia says you can go home.
Zelensky can walk away a hero and leave Putin a bruised and weakened shell. From what we’ve seen of his leadership I think he would very much step down if it meant achieving all his aims and saving lives.
I agree Dan, i think he would go if he thought it would work. But would it, what's an agreement with Putin worth? Not much according to the Minsk one.
.
IMO more likely is Russia continue to loose badly on the battlefield, a coup in Russia to overthrow Putin follows, new leader then agrees to withdraw from all Ukraine except, for instance, Crimea. New leader can say I'm great, we were losing badly but I've stopped the war *and* saved Crimea and Zalensky gets the credit for standing up to Russia and getting the Donbas back, win-wim for all except Putin.
Does this rely on the new Russian leader being trustworthy in his agreement or would giving NATO enough time to put some significant firepower on the border, along with bitter experience, be enough to ensure they couldn't break that agreement even if they wanted to?
Who thinks:
1/ Putin is still in power.
2/ There has been some negotiation.
1/ Yes (he has a very tight grip on power, that won't change no matter the outcome in Ukraine)
2/ Yes (but Ukraine and other Eastern European countries will not have faith in any new agreement)
This means there will be a standoff for years to come, even if the current war comes to an end. Nato, the EU, the UK and all partners of any kind with the countries most under threat will be under pressure to offer more help and joint protection in future. Russia will not be trusted. A lot of money and effort will have to be wasted keeping Russia in check. Which in itself is a win for Putin in many ways... he'll get to paint everyone else as increasing militarisation as a "threat" to Russia, and he'll have hit all countries to the West of Russia economically and politically as they are forced to focus on defence issues.
Not sure what him stepping down would achieve as Ukraine are united in his view point. Don't know what negotiations will achieve as, even if Russia is beaten back to their borders, they're not defeated.
Really dont know the end point to all of this. Even if Russia is beaten back to their borders there is no guarantee they wouldn't invade again or at least provoke Ukraine.
They need complete regime change. I think it is unlikely that the change in leadership would change the government/regime and I've heard there are some nasties waiting to take over. And I think there is only one way a regime change will happen... Basically stuck until the regime implodes itself or the people rise up (doubt).
Whoever replaces Putin will be whoever can get the loyalty of the security services. It won't be a liberal democrat, it will be a hard-right nationalist, someone who believes that Putin failed because he wasn't tough enough on Ukraine. They will not agree to withdraw from Ukraine, the idea that this war is going to end with a peace treaty is pure fantasy. It will end by Ukraine driving Russian forces out of Ukraine and the border being a heavily defended zone for decades to come.
And not just that border.
How would that be enforced?
My starter for 10 was Nord Stream, agree to buy Russian gas again at the market rate (because this will be over before we actually build any more wind farms or nuclear) but with the payment to Gazprom and the other shareholders capped at a rate that is just profitable for them, with the margin on top of that given to the Ukraine reconstruction fund?
It's a win for Nord Stream AG and it's shareholders as otherwise it's the threat of continued sanctions or Europe never buying from them again. And it doesn't need to directly affect the Kremlin so any new leader doesn't lose face forevermore.
Whoever replaces Putin will be whoever can get the loyalty of the security services.
I'm less convinced by this, too many ways it falls apart. Even if there was some shadowy ex-KGB person pulling Putin's strings and picking his replacement. Those people still have a motivation to get sanctions lifted so they can go on getting bungs from oligarchs.
I reckon most of what is said may happen, but Russia to retain Crimea for NATO and EU membership. The Donbas to be neutral.
but Russia to retain Crimea for NATO and EU membership. The Donbas to be neutral.
maybe crimea , tho I have my doubts
No way Dombas staying neutral will be accepted by Ukraine or many of the residents, I could see the hardcore russophiles fleeing if Ukraine takes it back
certainly in the recently recaptured regions the behaviour of the Russian military & failure to support local populace; food, power etc has turned many against Russia
The war ends with a coup. Someone removes Putin from power and then talks start to lift sanctions so they can get back to taking money from the common man.
Whatever Ukrainian territory Russia holds is used as a bargaining chip. If they don't hold any then some combination of oil, gas, nuclear disarmament and promises of not being bad is used instead.
The new leader gets to take credit for a new prosperous age for Russia albeit some people may still fall out of windows.
Zelensky is a Ukrainian hero and isn't going anywhere. He'll go down in history as one of the best leaders of any country and will win the next Ukrainian vote.
Once the war is over Ukraine will join the EU and NATO. They'll remain very close with the US and will receive bags of cash from the US and EU to rebuild Ukraine.
