Ukraine

There’s some good information on this thread, some speculation by a few people who know what they are talking and a lot of armchair generals, along with a bit of humour (mostly supplied by the Ukrainians) and its generally a good place to discuss things.
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It has been closed at least twice and the usual suspects seem intent on getting it closed again. It’s getting tedious wading through the batching and point scoring to find the useful comments.
I am not a mod, but please don’t spoil it for the rest of us. You all know who you are.

Well said andrewh, I haven’t commented much but it’s generally been an informative thread. If the usual suspects could stop their bun fight it would be nice…

Of course you’ll need to look at it from the Russian perspective. Do you feel Russia was nervous about having NATO military directly on their border, with missiles pointed their way.

I agree that we also need to look at this from a Russian perspective as if we don’t understand them we will struggle to limit the damage done to Ukraine. Whether those Russian concerns are realistic or warranted is another thing.

What I can’t see (from the Russian perspective) is why they didn’t go down the sanctions route first. The Russians could have put NATO countries under tremendous pressure by limiting gas supply and other exports (wheat, metals etc.) but instead decided to invade Ukraine. The same question could be asked about Russia’s annexation of Crimea and continued support for the separatists in Donbass & Luhansk. And lets not forget Georgia and Transnistria.

I think NATO have been prodding Russia but Russia have been constantly prodding NATO, it’s what both sides do unfortunately. Let’s not forget though that Russia have invaded Georgia, launched a chemical attack on British soil, supported Transnistria separatists, propped up Lukashenko, supplied a missile system that shot down a passenger airline and lots of other nefarious actions without NATO invading a smaller neighbour.

Because Russia invaded Ukraine

The bit many including yourself seem to be missing here is that as far as many in Russia (and Ukraine) are concerned – and certainly Putin – Ukraine is part of Russia and not independent. You can argue about the pros and cons of whether Ukraine should be a independent sovereign state free to do as it wants (I would argue it should BTW) but it’s silly to talk about the Russian position without recognising this simple fact.

This is not much different to when Catalonia wanted to leave Spain. In that case the Catalan leaders were rounded up and locked up by the Spanish govt and thankfully it never escalated to the point where it required military involvement. But what would have happened if Catalonia were armed by third party states and encouraged to join alliances with countries opposed to Spain?

The war in Ukraine is the inevitable result of a massive strategic failure on the part of Russia, NATO and the wider international community. They hubristically allowed Ukraine to separate itself from Russia and ally itself with the west when it never should have been given that opportunity in such a short time frame. The separation should have been managed over the long term instead of causing a geopolitical earthquake.

what I got back was ‘why should we care what they think in China and Venezuela

I don’t think you should trust the press in China and Venezuela. Why did I mention them, when you posted a link to an article without telling us which bit you thought was of interest… well… let’s look at it…

‘A necessary war’: reporting on the Ukraine ‘disagreement’ outside the west

Venezuela says Putin is a victim, China blames the US, and a South African pundit calls out western hypocrisy

launched a chemical attack on British soil,

2 chemical attacks. or radiological.

I posted an article with a range of global perspectives

You found an article on the Guardian, and you thought “I know, this’ll ruffle some feathers on that giant thread” and stood back and admired your handiwork. It’s as close to trolling without crossing the line. Either contribute and discuss or don’t. Your choice.

This is not much different to when Catalonia wanted to leave Spain.

Well, it is, because Catalonia was seeking independence. Ukraine is an independent country being invaded.

They hubristically allowed Ukraine to separate itself from Russia and ally itself with the west when it never should have been given that opportunity in such a short time frame.

Separate itself from Russia? Ukraine is a founder member of the UN as a state in its own right. Do you mean that former USSR and Warsaw Pact states shouldn’t be allowed to be autonomous from Russia and form their own relationships with countries other than Russia?

They hubristically allowed Ukraine to separate itself from Russia and ally itself with the west

Isn’t that what the people of Ukraine wanted, overwhelmingly?

This is not much different to when Catalonia wanted to leave Spain

I can’t if you’re being serious sometimes, I really can’t

They hubristically allowed Ukraine to separate itself from Russia and ally itself with the west when it never should have been given that opportunity in such a short time frame

You know that Ukraine fought a war of independence with the Bolsheviks over a hundred years ago, right? And in 1921 declared themselves The independent Republic of Ukraine? That in 1991 they were one of the first Soviet republics to declare independence from the CCCP? Dos that sound like a country that’s been at this for a short time?

This is not much different to when Catalonia wanted to leave Spain.

Top trolling. Get back under your bridge

The bit many including yourself seem to be missing here is that as far as many in Russia (and Ukraine) are concerned – and certainly Putin – Ukraine is part of Russia and not independent.

I don’t believe that anything was agreed in 1991 between Ukraine, Russia & Europe that any future Russian political thinking would permit Russia to invade their newly independent neighbour.

I have a fair few Ukrainian friends, most of them Russian speakers from the east of Ukraine and they tell me that very few people back home want to be part of Russia. I’m not sure if the Russian publics view of Ukraine is based on independent analysis or Russian gov controlled media?

The bit many including yourself seem to be missing here is that as far as many in Russia (and Ukraine) are concerned – and certainly Putin – Ukraine is part of Russia and not independent. You can argue about the pros and cons of whether Ukraine should be a independent sovereign state free to do as it wants (I would argue it should BTW) but it’s silly to talk about the Russian position without recognising this simple fact.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation and a member of the UN. That’s the fact that matters. The Russian view that Ukraine shouldn’t be a sovereign nation is utterly irrelevant.

I can’t if you’re being serious sometimes, I really can’t

At a political and cultural level there are lots of parallels. Where they’re different of course is the path both separatist movements took. In spain the Catalans didn’t have a major international military power supporting and egging them on.

Isn’t that what the people of Ukraine wanted, overwhelmingly?

Yes, and it’s why I support Ukrainian independence. It doesn’t however mean it should have been allowed to happen in such a short time frame. It certainly shouldn’t have happened whilst Putin was in power, as his response was, in hindsight, inevitable.

The Russian view that Ukraine shouldn’t be a sovereign nation is utterly irrelevant.

It’s pretty relevant to the poor buggers now being bombed out of their homes.

Get back under your bridge

Typical STW. Say something that (only slightly) disagrees with the forum group think and you’re a troll. 🙄

Yes, and it’s why I support Ukrainian independence. It doesn’t however mean it should have been allowed to happen in such a short time frame. It certainly shouldn’t have happened whilst Putin was in power, as his response was, in hindsight, inevitable.

So you’re saying the 93%? Of ukranians that voted for independence should have stayed under Putins brutal autocracy for another 20-30 years?

So what you’re saying is that we should suspend democracy in cases where it might upset dictators?

Righto

I’m sure that’ll work out well

This idea that Russia somehow had some right to invade sovereign nations on the basis of some ancient desire to remain an empire is complete garbage.

I would ask my lovely Ukrainian contractors what they think of this idea but I think they would find it too insulting and upsetting.

 It certainly shouldn’t have happened whilst Putin was in power, as his response was, in hindsight, inevitable.

You can’t simultaneously argue that NATO expansion (western imperialism and geopolitics) is the cause of the conflict, and at the same time argue that it’s also the answer to this issue, i.e. Western powers should have interfered in the geopolitics of eastern Europe

I’m sure that’ll work out well

You think it’s working out now? Democracy is often ‘suspended’ if there are good reasons. And avoiding war is one of the few where it’s justified.

So you’re saying the 93%? Of ukranians that voted for independence should have stayed under Putins brutal autocracy for another 20-30 years?

It’s not as black and white as that is it? I’m not saying the independence vote should have been overturned, but the revolutions of 2004 and in particular 2014 were in hindsight not a great idea, and they were encouraged and supported by the west. Had it not been for those Ukraine would still be an independent country and wouldn’t now be at war.

Analysis of that attack on the Russian column

My colleagues at the ??military academy’s R&D department under Col. M. Reisner did a quick analysis of this action. 1st time we saw a ??BTG at (least in part) operating how it is supposed to at the tactical level (execution is another matter). https://t.co/pyljMDUfZZ pic.twitter.com/PBh9KOfFJf

— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) March 10, 2022

Looking pretty grim this morning more cruise missile strikes overnight on previously unhit cities (which a lot of refugees had fled to)

That big convoy has now dispersed looks like plan is to encircle each city and pound it into rubble with local artillery and cruise missles from within Russia

Russian casualties heavy, they are now recruiting mercenaries from Syria to make up numbers.

Intercepted phonecall home with Russian soldiers bragging about killing civilians and looting tvs etc

These are real intercepted calls: Russian soldiers in Ukraine call their close ones back in Russia to tell how it is going so far. Looting and war crimes included. Please, share! The world must know the truth of what they’re doing to our homes and people. pic.twitter.com/5yBRYjEoN1

— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) March 9, 2022

Yes, and it’s why I support Ukrainian independence. It doesn’t however mean it should have been allowed to happen in such a short time frame. It certainly shouldn’t have happened whilst Putin was in power, as his response was, in hindsight, inevitable.

A bit lost here- I thought Gorbachev was in charge back in 1991.

Had it not been for those Ukraine would still be an independent country and wouldn’t now be at war.

You mean had they been run by a puppet state like Belarus then Putin wouldn’t need to invade?

Yes quite

But I’m not sure the Ukrainians would want to live under that kind of nightmare dictatoeship

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Belarus

Yes, and it’s why I support Ukrainian independence. It doesn’t however mean it should have been allowed to happen in such a short time frame. It certainly shouldn’t have happened whilst Putin was in power, as his response was, in hindsight, inevitable.

Ukraine became independent from USSR / Russia, eight years before Putin came to power.

Had it not been for those Ukraine would still be an independent country and wouldn’t now be at war.

This is just speculative though. I suspect that Putin would’ve invaded regardless. He’s done it now before Ukraine joins a trading block that he perceives as antithetical to his territorial ambitions and mutual military support group that will make it harder if not impossible to do in the future.

Had it not been for those Ukraine would still be an independent country and wouldn’t now be at war.

So if it had remained a puppet state then Russia wouldnt have invaded? Quite possibly true but not the strongest argument.

There does seem to be a problem with accepting that two things can be true. I think many of us would accept there is a stench of hypocrisy about Western attitudes to the current situation, but the idea that Putin invaded because of NATO doesn’t stand up to a minute’s scrutiny.

I’ve stepped back to being a passive observer for the most part on this thread, because yet again it’s regressed to bickering and personal insults. I couldn’t let that post go by though without saying ‘bravo’.  Nail on the head.  There seems to be be an assumption by some, that directing anger at Putin and Russia, somehow implies we were cheerleaders for the Iraq war, ignored the suffering of other conflicts or can’t see the corruption, incompetency and hypocrisy in our own government. It’s ignorant and insulting.  We can, but at this moment in time the greater evil, the crocodile nearest the boat is our dictatorial, expansionist neighbour who is shelling civilians and threatening to spark WW3.

Well said bloke

You mean had they been run by a puppet state like Belarus

So if it had remained a puppet state

Anyone care to define the phrase ‘puppet state’? Yes before 2014 and 2004 Ukraine was a state operating within the sphere of Russian economic and military influence. It wasn’t fully independent, but which countries are? All states other than the US, China and Russia itself cede some independence in favour of economic and political stability. For Ukraine that means staying close to Russia (for now). The west encouraged them to abandon that in favour of operating under western influence and look where it has got them. And now that they’re suffering the consequences what are the west doing? Pretty much nothing. It’s no wonder Zelinsky is so angry with the western response, they’ve been abandoned to their fate.

I’ve stepped back to being a passive observer for the most part on this thread, because yet again it’s regressed to bickering and personal insults. I couldn’t let that post go by though with saying ‘bravo’.  Nail on the head.  There seems to be be an assumption by some, that directing anger at Putin and Russia, somehow implies we were cheerleaders for the Iraq war, ignored the suffering of other conflicts or can’t see the corruption, incompetency and hypocrisy in our own government. It’s ignorant and insulting.  We can, but at this moment in time the greater evil, the crocodile nearest the boat is our dictatorial, expansionist neighbour who is shelling civilians and threatening to spark WW3.

This sums up how I feel in a much better way than I ever could!! Nice work 👍

They hubristically allowed Ukraine to separate itself from Russia

I think Ukraine became independent of Russia at about the same time as Finland (1917ish)

There seems to be be an assumption by some, that directing anger at Putin and Russia, somehow implies we were cheerleaders for the Iraq war, ignored the suffering of other conflicts or can’t see the corruption, incompetency and hypocrisy in our own government. It’s ignorant and insulting.

Exactly.

That Guardian article writes about “Russian intervention” rather that “Russian invasion”. That tells me all I need to know about the author and their agenda.

The article starts with “Many an insult has been hurled at Vladimir Putin since he invaded Ukraine a fortnight ago”. This is unquoted and unattributed text, the author’s own choice of words. A major issue addressed by the article is whether other publications around the world describe the Russian action as an invasion, and more of those mentioned in the article do so than don’t. So after the introduction the word “invasion” appears many times, mostly in quotes or, on one occasion, as part of a point attributed to another author but not in quotes.

The word “intervention” appears once, in quotes, attributed to the South African publication “The Mail and Guardian”.

The article tells me some interesting stuff about how news publications around the world are addressing the issue and from that I can learn about their agendas. Which is, I think, what the article was intending to communicate.

I’ve stepped back to being a passive observer for the most part on this thread, because yet again it’s regressed to bickering and personal insults. I couldn’t let that post go by though with saying ‘bravo’. Nail on the head. There seems to be be an assumption by some, that directing anger at Putin and Russia, somehow implies we were cheerleaders for the Iraq war, ignored the suffering of other conflicts or can’t see the corruption, incompetency and hypocrisy in our own government. It’s ignorant and insulting. We can, but at this moment in time the greater evil, the crocodile nearest the boat is our dictatorial, expansionist neighbour who is shelling civilians and threatening to spark WW3.

Please everyone apply this logic the other way round aswell. Calling people ‘Putin stooges’ or ‘useful idiots’ for posting slightly different viewpoints is not helpful.

I think Ukraine became independent of Russia at about the same time as Finland (1917ish)

After 1917 Russia did’t exist, it was replaced by the USSR in 1922 following the post-revolutionary civil war. Ukraine’s self declared independence lasted less than 4 years before it became a founding member of the USSR. It’s plainly ridiculous to say Ukraine was independent from 1917 in a similar way as Finland was.

I think many of us would accept there is a stench of hypocrisy about Western attitudes to the current situation

I certainly would.

somehow implies we were cheerleaders for the Iraq war, ignored the suffering of other conflicts or can’t see the corruption, incompetency and hypocrisy in our own government

Nail on head! Those of us that have campaigned against wars, and in favour of accepting refugees from war, and bore people with our constant criticism of our own government… still see Putin invading a country when his own is at no risk of invasion. And some of us fear that his expansion through force is not over, just as we did when he took Crimea and other territory by using military force.

Blokeuptheroad nails it for me

So if, which regrettably seems likely, Putin does integrate Ukraine back into Russia, how will this play out? Will sanctions remain until Putin is toppled and Ukraine is released?

 Ukraine’s self declared independence lasted less than 4 years before it became a founding member of the USSR. It’s plainly ridiculous to say Ukraine was independent from 1917 in a similar way as Finland was.

Ukraine’s independence lasted only 4 years because the Bolsheviks invaded in 1919 after the defeat of Germany in WW1, and they fought a really rather nasty war involving Poland and surrounding states. I don’t think it was very keen to become a “founding member of the USSR” as it really didn’t have a choice in the matter.

Ukrainian War of Independence

It’s not as black and white as that is it? I’m not saying the independence vote should have been overturned, but the revolutions of 2004 and in particular 2014 were in hindsight not a great idea, and they were encouraged and supported by the west. Had it not been for those Ukraine would still be an independent country and wouldn’t now be at war.

That statement says quite enough about the failed reasoning of your argument, there’s still time to roll back and admit you’ve made an error, or you can go full tucker on this one.