Ukraine

I have seen suggestions that Biden going off the cuff remarks and not really thinking it through.

Thank f++k the orange gorilla isn't still in charge - I'd imagine he'd have accidentally triggered WW3 by now....

I think Biden is just vocalising what a good percentage of the world is thinking.

I doubt it will effect Putin's decisions in the slightest.

I do think that invading Ukraine will be seen as the beginning of the end of his dictatorship in the future though. He's not some great strategist, just a ruthless opportunist and the war has exposed him as such.

Shame so many had and will "have" to die to rid the world of him though.

What can be done about missile strikes on e.g. Lviv? For artillery there's been radar laid counter battery for a long time but if you're launching 50 or 100 km away what can be done? Are we still stuck with the SCUD hunting patrols behind enemy lines of the Gulf War?

I think America has sent Patriot anti missile systems over but no idea if they can take out whatever Russia is using, though I suspect they can given their use in other countries?

No doubt someone will know on here.

Aren't they being fired from a ship in the Black Sea?

I think America has sent Patriot anti missile systems over but no idea if they can take out whatever Russia is using, though I suspect they can given their use in other countries?

Not sure how Patriot compares to Israel Iron Dome (impressive)? Anyone?

I wonder what is the effect of radiation if a Patriot taking out a nuke missile above land? Will the wind just blow the radiation away after the explosion in the air?

Biden should just shut up as he/USA is not in the front line. In the event of nukes, those nations to the west are safe but those closes to Russia will bear the brunt of nukes. Yes, other NATO members might strike back but it will be rather pointless as some cities would have been vaporised by that time. Winning is just an empty gesture.

Not sure how Patriot compares to Israel Iron Dome (impressive)? Anyone?

They are designed for different jobs. Iron Dome is meant to handle pretty close range rockets/mortars whereas Patriot is anti long range missile/air craft. So I think you would want both. The Iron dome could be handy for knocking out the MSLR rockets but would probably fail at the sophisticated stuff since it wasnt designed for it. Might work mind.
However would be a good chance Iron Dome would get overwhelmed by a regimental attack. Its designed and is good for a specific job.

As far as I am aware no Patriots have been sent to Ukraine. Aside from anything else the crews would need training. Hence why there is discussion about providing them with some of the S-300 missile systems (possibly s-400 as well but not sure) from other former Soviet block countries since they already know how to use those.

Aren’t they being fired from a ship in the Black Sea?

Seems to be a mix of sea based, air launched and a few ground launchers in Belarus.

Apologies, appears Patriot's have been deployed to the border with Ukraine, in Poland.

Not sure how Patriot compares to Israel Iron Dome (impressive)? Anyone?

I wonder what is the effect of radiation if a Patriot taking out a nuke missile above land? Will the wind just blow the radiation away after the explosion in the air?

Also things like Scuds are (relatively) slow and (relatively) easy to hit.
Russia has been working on some hypersonic misses which would be nearly impossible to shoot down with a patriot. How ready they are and howany they have I don't know. They have some pretty impressive (on paper) aircraft which have disappointed so far so hopefully the missiles would be similar.
As for nuclear missiles, an ICBM at full speed would also be nigh on impossible to hit, a tactical nuke on a cruise missile probably would be a viable target. I have no idea if shooting it down would cause it to detonate though. They can be quite robust (have a look at 'broken arrows' the amount which fell from aircraft by accident and didn't detonate. 32!)

They used their hypersonic missiles the other day.

This is quite a fascinating thread here.

Some key oligarchs would appear to be fleeing to safe havens.

It's funny that when the sh!t goes down here, we panic about wiping our arses.

When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar - why do you think they want that so bad ..?

What a world we live in.

I think America has sent Patriot anti missile systems over

The U.S. has not supplied Patriots. They would take months to set up and train the crews. Ukraine operates Russian systems so buying some of those from other countries and giving them to Ukraine is the only short-term solution.

I wonder what is the effect of radiation if a Patriot taking out a nuke missile above land? Will the wind just blow the radiation away after the explosion in the air?

The most likely thing is that the missile itself would be destroyed but the warhead would remain relatively intact. In that case, it would just be a matter of collecting it.

Realistically, the worst case scenario would be that it functions as a dirty bomb. There is a sphere of plutonium about the size of a tennis ball inside the nuclear warhead. That's surrounded by an "explosive lens" which needs to be precisely triggered to compress the plutonium and set off the nuclear explosion. It's much more robust than people assume, even if a missile hit the warhead directly and set off the explosives, it wouldn't be precise enough to compress the plutonium, it would just scatter it everywhere. That would leave a mess, but it would over a small area. You would just fence it off and scrape off all the topsoil to collect the radioactive material.

The warhead would not explode in a nuclear fireball. For that to happen, it needs multiple detonators to fire with extremely precise timing. Being struck by a missile or catching fire won't trigger it, it'll just scatter the plutonium core.

When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?

I’m not much of a drinker, but if it’s all going to **** I might want a few stiff drinks first so I don’t blame them.

When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?

Pretty sensible really, sugar has a high calorific value, long life and can be turned into a lot of different type of foods with other long life ingredients.

Also saw the news that the White House have released a statement correcting what Biden said, which gives an indication that there is some workable deal being thought out to end this invasion!

When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?

I panic-bought some icing sugar when the first lockdown was announced, the idea of isolating with no cake didn't bare thinking about!

When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?

Takes me back to when I worked in Saudi.

When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?

As mentioned above, it has high calorific value. Also, in the videos the those fighting over it are older people; they remember the USSR. When there's nothing in the shops you need to preserve every strawberry, tomato and cucumber you can grow at your dacha. Sugar, salt and vinegar are hugely valuable if your economy is properly screwed. Bog roll is the least of your worries!

I'm reading this at the moment - lots of stories of grandmas that stashed sugar and buckwheat etc around the apartment, in case the bad times came back. For Russians, memories of famine and existential hunger are closer than we in western Europe often realise. Even in the 90s there was subsistence farming in some parts.

Some interesting claims emerging as Russia attempts to redraw country borders based on thier view of history - is this the sharks circling?

If you were a country part occupied by Russia, at any point over the last couple of hundred years, now would be a strategic time to seek to 'correct' things.

https://mobile.twitter.com/militaryhistori/status/1508152947913502732

I'm not sure that Russia has much to worry about on that front.

Admittedly they'll struggle to hold on to what they've taken so far, but sunny see any country mad enough to invade them.

Putin is getting a bloody nose, tho
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1507974565670133762?t=lr_NhUJ0GMFWWQj_x199sQ&s=19

When it hits the fan in Russia they panic-buy sugar – why do you think they want that so bad ..?

No no no, you see sugar is what you need to make your own "vodka" called Samogen.

"In rural Russia may many people drink “samogon”, Russian moonshine or white lightning. "Samogon" literally means "run by myself,” a reference to its production process. Samogen consumption increased dramatically after Gorbachev launched his anti-vodka campaign and increased further after the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991, when production was legalized but selling it wasn’t. As living standards dropped, people found they could more bang for their buck by drinking samogen than vodka. By 1994, samogen accounted for one of every six drinks consumed in Russia.

Samogen can be made from use tea, milk, bread, rice, potatoes, beet roots and even wooden stools and generally has a potency of between 30 and 50 proof. A typical samogen recipe calls for 100 grams of yeast, 10 kilograms of sugar, 4 liters of fresh milk, and 40 liters of water to be mixed in a washing machines for two hours and then distilled in stove-top vat connected to a pipe that spirals into a bucket."

https://factsanddetails.com/russia/People_and_Life/sub9_2g/entry-5020.html

Lots of poor sods over there go blind over the home grown stuff too, as the ethanol (I think?) isn't always removed properly.

Sugar riot

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820257498451968?t=v-wvaIubUrrGyhKZ3947ag&s=19

That thread is interesting.

Basically says Russia will pull itself apart with people still supporting Putin.

Military machine needs foreign parts and foreign machine tools so grinds to a halt.

People look to and blame local government for shortages of food and everything.

Local government stockpiles and stops trading with other localities.

People go hungry because they don't know how to subsistence farm anymore.

Political change happens, but its the end of Russia as we know it.

Lots of poor sods over there go blind over the home grown stuff too, as the ethanol (I think?) isn’t always removed properly.

Methanol is the problem, ethanol is the bit you want to keep. There is a web page all about it! (Just found it, no idea if it is talking sense or not.)

wzzzz
Free Member
That thread is interesting.

Basically says Russia will pull itself apart with people still supporting Putin.

Was a good read want it? Effectively in a globalised world, having much of the world turn their back on you royally ***** you up.

Globalisation will break Russia. It's kind of like an extreme Brexit bit one that's imposed on you by other countries!😉

You can build a tank... apart from the fact you can't get tiny, seemingly insignificant parts such as bearings for it. Just a few components mate difficult to get our build at home and no now tanks.

(The tanks could equally be cars, gas cookers, fridges.... You name it.)

However bad methanol is, it's better than their home made 'opiates'.
Krokodil originated in Russia and it's horrific.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/krokodil-the-drug-that-eats-junkies-2300787.html

If the UA can keep on pushing the ruskis back and retake a couple of other towns then maybe a settlement can be done.
Would Putin offer up decades of oil and gas to Ukraine as compensation for flattening entire towns? They could re sell on the open market to get instant capital comimg in.
Russia does not need the income as no one will sell them anything anymore.
Then all commodities have to be imported via Ukraine and there will be a special handling tax for that.

Thus increasing gdp for Ukraine, getting access to oil and gas and giving the Ukraine gov some cash to spend with eu builders willing to build towms.

So giving the ua alot more hardware isn't a bad idea at all.
Lets face it, itts unlikely after this debacle the Russian army will attempt to imvade Moldova eg. So the uk is very unlikely to need new tanks, rockets and apc

Here’s a very interesting article I read earlier about Aerorozvidka, the small unit of IT and drone operators who’ve been using hit and run tactics with drones and quads at night to disrupt the Russian convoys; it was them who stopped the 40-mile convoy in its tracks, quite literally.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

Because they’re not officially part of the Ukrainian military structure, they don’t get the help they need for equipment, much of which they build themselves, so they’re crowdfunding for funds to get the parts, which are often from the US and Canada, which have export embargoes placed on what’s needed, so they have to enlist the help of friends abroad to try to get essential parts across the border.

Their Facebook page is well worth a look as well…

Maybe they could start selling merchandise to help raise funds, their unit patch is pretty cool.

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580

That (paywalled) WSJ article : https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-and-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-suffer-symptoms-of-suspected-poisoning-11648480493

That cannot be true. If so it's a new low in Putins war and it's already at lower than a snakes belly low.

I am calling "not by the hair on Jimmy Hills chinny chin chin" on Abramovich being poisoned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60904676
Beeb are running it

Beeb run any old shit that is on twitter these days, doesn't mean it is verified to be true.

Here’s a very interesting article I read earlier about Aerorozvidka, the small unit of IT and drone operators who’ve been using hit and run tactics with drones and quads at night to disrupt the Russian convoys; it was them who stopped the 40-mile convoy in its tracks, quite literally.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

Because they’re not officially part of the Ukrainian military structure, they don’t get the help they need for equipment, much of which they build themselves, so they’re crowdfunding for funds to get the parts, which are often from the US and Canada, which have export embargoes placed on what’s needed, so they have to enlist the help of friends abroad to try to get essential parts across the border.

Their Facebook page is well worth a look as well…

Maybe they could start selling merchandise to help raise funds, their unit patch is pretty cool.

Posted 5 hours ago

My favourite story so far!

Suggestion is that it was ‘hardliners’ who want the war to continue, so may not be Putin per se. Lots of stuff appears on Twitter that never appears on the Beeb, and there is usually a delay of some hours between stuff appearing on Twitter and making it onto the Beeb, which I usually take to mean some element of verification is taking place.

I am calling “not by the hair on Jimmy Hills chinny chin chin” on Abramovich being poisoned.

Beeb run any old shit that is on twitter these days, doesn’t mean it is verified to be true.

I would suggest that it might be quite difficult for the BBC, or anyone else other than the doctors who examined them to verify that it is true.  A quick glance though shows Reuters, Al Jazeera, the Washington post and probably many others reporting the same story.  I'm just wondering what your inside info is that allows you to denounce the veracity of this so stridently?

I’m just wondering what your inside info is that allows you to denounce the veracity of this so stridently?

Sandra on facebook said it wasn't so.....

Beeb run any old shit that is on twitter these days, doesn’t mean it is verified to be true.

The Beeb don't run anything until they've checked two sources*, having been burned before. Hence why they are rarely first to go public with breaking news

* I don't know if Twitter and Instagram count as two sources.

If the UA can keep on pushing the ruskis back and retake a couple of other towns then maybe a settlement can be done.

I'm unconvinced the ground regained by Ukraine is as significant as some sources suggest.

The Beeb don’t run anything until they’ve checked two sources*, having been burned before. Hence why they are rarely first to go public with breaking news

* I don’t know if Twitter and Instagram count as two sources.

Seeing as the story they run isn't that Abramovich has been poisoned, but that the WSJ reported that Abramovich has been poisoned, Then all they have to verify is that the WSJ published the story.

And I am not making excuses for Putin or any of that shit, just that this story pinged my credibility meter. I think it far more likely that Abramovich just wants to paint himself as a victim, due to the impact sanctions are having on him, and hope he can get sympathy from western governments. And lets face it the WSJ is embedded journalism for billionaires and oligarchs.

Beeb run any old shit that is on twitter these days, doesn’t mean it is verified to be true.

Easy to say, when you don't have to verify anything

I think it far more likely that Abramovich just wants to paint himself as a victim, due to the impact sanctions are having on him, and hope he can get sympathy from western governments.

He is insignificant in the current situation. Only one person decides and that's Putin and Russia.

Only one person decides and that’s Putin and Russia.

That's 144,000,000 people!

Only one person decides and that’s Putin and Russia.

FTFY

Would Putin offer up decades of oil and gas to Ukraine as compensation for flattening entire towns? They could re sell on the open market to get instant capital comimg in.
Russia does not need the income as no one will sell them anything anymore.

I think, deep down - what has driven Putin to the position he's in is he's embarrassed by Ukraine. Ukrainians - post break up of the  USSR enjoy a much better quality of life the Russians do - and given that Putin has been leader for 2/3rds of time - thats largely his fault. Russia has been stagnating while all former Warsaw Pact countries blossom - as for not needing the income? A third of its economy comes from exports.

Making things worse in Ukraine is the whole point - if he wanted Ukraine to be a valuable asset to Russia he wouldn't be reducing it to rubble - this isn't empire building its spite. When this is over he's not going to play a part in making reparations - making things better - the whole point is to make things worse.

Putin previously used polonium on British soil

A poison that uniquely left a trail that could & would be traced back to Russia

I dont think there's anything out I f bounds on that front for Putin

I don't think Putin planned to flatten cities, he thought he could just change the regime and reap the rewards. But the inability to climb down and lose face has led him down this road and here we are. His pride is worth more to him than thousands of lives.

I don’t think Putin planned to flatten cities

It's exactly what they did in Grozny. Twice.