UK Election!

And despite his huge majority he knows that it is built on a very shaky foundation with half a million less votes than 2019 – he needs win back the people for whom Gaza was a red line.

No he doesn’t. Those people don’t matter in a fptp system. They tend to be in places where the labour vote is strong enough to win without them and they’re not voting Tory. Obviously pandering to the Muslim vote will have consequences, both within Labour (Jess Phillips abuse), and it provides a very clear attack line from the right. Starmer won by being bland enough that Tory voters stayed at home and keeping hold of enough Labour voters throughout the country. Getting 40% of the vote everywhere is much better than getting 95% of the vote in 40% of the seats but losing the rest.

Where does this “uncritical supporter” nonsense come from?

You do realise that it isn’t necessary to describe opinions which you don’t agree with as nonsense, don’t you?

Thornbury is a member of Labour Friends of Israel which isn’t known for its criticism of Israel. And I don’t think she has made the moral and legal case for BDS, Richard Hermer definitely has, and as a consequence the zionists are not very happy with him.

Btw if you want to delude yourself into believing that Gaza had no significant effect on Thursday’s election and that Starmer doesn’t have to change his stance on Gaza at all then that’s obviously up to you.

But it would be disingenuous imo to suggest that Starmer was totally unbothered by seeing his vote halved and Wes Streeting very almost lose his seat over the issue.

How much that affects Starmer’s position on Palestine is difficult to establish atm but he would clearly be a fool not to think very carefully about how to regain lost votes.

Labour only got 34% of the vote on Thursday ffs. Whilst the arithmetic behind first-past-the-post worked very well this time there is no guarantee that it will do so next time.

Starmer needs to figure out a way of winning back some of the more than 3 million votes Labour has lost since 2017. Preferably before 2029 – there will plenty of local and by-elections before then.

Edit : FFS I had to edit because I was being too generous, Labour didn’t get 36% of the vote on Thursday, they got 34% ! Thirty-four **** percent!

And some people can’t see a problem with that because of first-past-the-post? You’re having a laugh.

I see the left united to defeat the far right. Excellent.

Straight away we have one person trying to divide them again. Oh well.

There’s a certain type of lefty that always prefers being out of power and influence so they can stand at the side moaning and being virtuous, without having to do anything difficult like run a nation.

You mean like celebrating the fact that Starmer has chosen Richard Hermer to be Attorney General?

That sort of “moaning” or did you have something else in mind?

Starmer needs to figure out a way of winning back some of the more than 3 million votes Labour has lost since 2017. Preferably before 2029 – there will plenty of local and by-elections before then.

If winning those votes only means increased majorities in safe seats and an energised opposition it’s not worth it. Corbyn proved this. He lost twice, Starmer doesn’t frighten Tory voters however the right wing media try to portray him. Our electoral system isn’t fit for purpose but we know the rules so it’s there to be gamed.

Whatever made you think I was referring to you?

No, I meant the French left uniting to defeat the far right, then someone instantly claiming the victory for the far left when rather than celebrating.

Of course winning back the 3 million votes lost since 2017 isn’t just about increasing majorities in safe seats and an energising opposition, what a strange suggestion.

Unless you can guarantee that 34% will result in a landslide victory in 5 years time don’t you think there might be a problem?

Support for parties generally falls after they win a landslide victory, that is exactly what happened after 1997. So on the face of it Labour will be lucky to get 34% again in 5 years.

I am amazed anyone should be arguing that everything is just fine because we have this great first-past-the-post system which always works so well for Labour.

I suspect that Starmer is smart enough to realise that he was very lucky to get such a huge majority out of such a small share of the vote. His choice for Attorney General suggests that he might be looking at sensible ways of winning back some of the votes that went to independents and the Greens.

The Greens are likely to be a bigger problem in 5 years time and possible the current independents too if they form themselves into some sort of coalition.

No, I meant the French left uniting to defeat the far right, then someone instantly claiming the victory for the far left when rather than celebrating.

Eh? The three blocks were the united left, the centrists, and the far-right.

It would appear that the united left came first, the centrists came second, and the far-right came third.

Someone claimed that Macron had won. I think that’s probably stretching it, I believe that his prime minister is accepting defeat and will be resigning tomorrow.

So much sophistry, so little time. Let the good news keep flowing though…

A week is a long time in politics, 5 years till the next election is an eternity.

Sticking to the “UK” bit in the title, Keir is smarter than BoJo I think.

He has worked out that position A in delivering good government in the UK is getting enough seats to provide the government – any sort of government at all.

The bit that is hard work and takes time is the good government bit – and although you have 5 years, you really only have a couple of months to convince people of that.

So if we accept that he has nicely got enough seat, how do we feel about the first few actions as opposed to words in an advertising document for the election (ok manifesto, but I’m more accurate there really)?

I think he’s doing ok so far. Early days, but ok, good appointments, good tone, threatening Swinney with cooperation – ok. 

how do we feel about the first few actions as opposed to words in an advertising document for the election (ok manifesto, but I’m more accurate there really)?

Going to see the leaders of all the devolved governments, then having meetings with all the regional mayors seems like a radical idea. Imagine choosing to opt for a cooperative aproach rather than deliberate confrontation and issuing dictats from Westminster. Revolutionary stuff!!

From this mornings Guardian article : Rachel Reeves pledges to ‘fix foundations’ of UK economy with growth plan

Speaking in Edinburgh on Sunday, Starmer reiterated that he wanted to forge new cooperation with elected politicians from across different political parties, from the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, Ben Houchen, to the Scottish National party first minister, John Swinney.

“I’m totally committed to the principle that those with skin in the game know best, what works for their communities, and that what you shouldn’t do is have individuals in Westminster and Whitehall making decisions affecting communities when they’ve got their own representatives,” he said. “I think the best interest of every community is held by those who are elected into office.”

Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, will be at Starmer’s side for a meeting with English metro mayors on Tuesday, where they will discuss Labour’s plan to “power up” Britain through more devolution and local growth plans.

Fine words but will wee see any action?  Starmer has been contemptuous of Holyrood.  The nonsense over the GRA – where he said he agreed with the Tory veto of a law that had been worked out by compromise over 5 years with support from ALL parties but he knew better.

We had Nandy threatening extra judicial arrest then claiming what she meant was to outflank the SNP from the left – when the SNP are well to the left of Labour at the time.

Ignorant of the working of Holyrood and contemptuous of the decisions made by the parliament and suffer from the same as Scottish labour – if the SNP support it it must be opposed at all times

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/08/disproportionate-uk-election-results-boost-calls-to-ditch-first-past-the-post

how do we feel about the first few actions as opposed to words in an advertising document for the election (ok manifesto, but I’m more accurate there really)?

They seem good to me but the “they are all the same” people will need to feel the differences as they will not be looking deeply into appointments or listening to any words.  Not sure what Labour can do that quickly but make just a small impact, especially given their fiscal rules silliness.  Maybe quietly breaking that and actually getting stuff started would be a good move.  If people don’t feel any difference in say a year then the obvious “what was the point” questions will be coming out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/08/disproportionate-uk-election-results-boost-calls-to-ditch-first-past-the-post

Yes, this election was a great example of how shit FPTP is with Reform + Green at 21% of vote share but 2% of the seats but nobody in Labour government with massive majority via FPTP is going to be tabling this in the next 5 years unless polling in 4.5 years time says otherwise.

There is going to be at least one unpredictable, uncontrollable event during the next Parliament which may well end up defining Starmer’s period as pm.

Regarding PR…Surely the people have spoken and the result of that referendum need to be respected.

We’ve never had a PR vote – the referendum was on AV IIRC. To be honest I think people would vote differently in a PR system and you’d see a lot more other party votes, not just for Reform but for greens, libs etc. Turnout might be higher and it could even positively effect the %ages for the big parties too. Whatever I doubt it would be the same %ages outcome.

Its important too to remember on this occasion the vote for tory and lose option meant a vote for reform was a throw away choice, it meant nothing either way so why not? If PR had been in place then voting tory would have counted too and I bet far less people would have flipped.

At the moment as I see it the country is split into people that want quiet, competent government, and people that want ideological government. I would guess that a group of remaining tory voters could be swayed to Labour if Kier delivers a stable government, no dramas. Likewise if things start to improve for the reform voters I am sure they’re pretty capable of forgetting their ideology in return for improved working conditions, a growing economy and better public services.

For those who seem to think that the winners in yesterday’s French legislative elections were Macron and the centrists the fount of all truth disagrees

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/frances-progressives-keep-out-the-far-right-but-what-could-happen-next

For those who seem to think that the winners in yesterday’s French legislative elections were Macron and the centrists

Who thinks this? Are these people in the room with you now?

With the political uncertainty ahead for France, there will be relief at the change of government in the UK. Relief that will be felt much wider in Europe.

Was a PR referndum in anyones manifestos?

I seriously doubt the Tories will have it in their 2025 manifesto

I think I read that government are considering dropping the UKs objection to Netenyahus ICC arrest warrant which would be a big step. Dangerous just reducing the muslim vote to a bloc that cares only about Gaza, Im sure its important to some, but some muslim communities are at the pointiest end of inequality in the country, their priorities are the same as everyone else’s; NHS, housing, cost of living, jobs, education….  thats where labour need to deliver

I can see something happening that until yesterday had never occurred to me was possible – Starmer might turn out to be smarter and more progressive than the centrists on STW.

The appointment of the new attorney general appears to suggest that that Starmer might understand the crisis created by such a low vote last Thursday and that there should be an attempt to win back some of the lost votes, including ironically in his own constituency.

In contrast STW’s finest centrists appear to be in glorious denial and think everything is just hunky dory because we can rely on first-past-the-post.

Starmer might turn out to be smarter and more progressive than the centrists on STW.

We’ve long known he’s smarter than the lefties on STW.

we can rely on first-past-the-post.

Not a centrist view, even if you can quote someone centre on STW with that personal opinion. It was the Lib Dems that tried unsuccessfully to get PR from the Tories.  And in the long run FPTP will always drive interest group coalescing into two broad church parties, whatever short term changes may be happening now.

Starmer might turn out to be smarter and more progressive than the centrists on STW

I think it is a given that he is smarter than pretty much everyone on this forum, with exception of you obviously.

Tactical voting inevitably skewed the overall percentages, probably not by much, but I am sure that quite a few Labour supporters voted for other parties either to get the Tories out or because they recognised the candidate as a potentially good constituency MP. It does work both ways as I am aware so some of their votes would have come from other parties but it might explain some of the anomalies between national polling and actual turnout.

bring in compulsory voting, have a preferential vote for the lower house, abolish the house of lords and replace with a senate that is elected via PR

Dangerous just reducing the muslim vote to a bloc that cares only about Gaza, Im sure its important to some, but some muslim communities are at the pointiest end of inequality in the country, their priorities are the same as everyone else’s; NHS, housing, cost of living, jobs, education…. thats where labour need to deliver

I totally agree. But my experience from much of the local Muslim community recently is that they will never vote for candidates who aren’t condemning Netanyahu and didn’t at the first opportunity back a ceasefire, they simply don’t trust them on any issue.

An elected politician doesn’t just represent the electorate, they also make moral based decisions on their behalf, including on a local level. Voters need to feel that the politician shares their moral compass before they can trust them.

Yesterday I was making the case that local Labour MP Sarah Jones was fundamentally a good person despite the fact that she had made the terrible mistake of not backing early calls for a ceasefire. I suggested that she had undoubtedly wrestled with her conscience and perhaps came to the conclusion that she could do more good by remaining on the Labour front bench.

The issue came up because Sarah Jones doesn’t appear to have secured a ministerial role in the new government. My suggestion wasn’t challenged as had expected it might be. Another local Labour MP, Steve Reed, a hardline zionist with no redeeming qualities, secured himself a cabinet post.

PR in one of it’s many flavours might be great in a stable, progressive country where the politicians largely are tinkering around the edges, but in a country like this, where radical change is needed I can’t see PR working. The diplomacy and compromises needed to build a multi party government and pander to egos will always blunt the ability to make major changes.

Lammy has already banked 3/4 EU countries and it’s barely been 72 hours!

I can only imagine what the Brexity frothers are making of this.

?

Sticking to the “UK” bit in the title, Keir is smarter than BoJo I think.

Hardly a high bar but obviously true.

I do not think many folk fail to understand that Starmer is a serious and able man.  competent even.

Starmer is a serious and able man

terrifyingly competent. I watched Angela Rayner on the rest is politics. She’s seen the real world

I think it is a given that he is smarter than pretty much everyone on this forum, with exception of you obviously.

Ah nice, the thread descends into direct and personal attacks, probably time to get off the thread.

It’s a weird comment from someone who has more than once banged on about their enormously high IQ btw kerley. Apparently it’s on par with Einstein iirc?

In contrast STW’s finest centrists appear to be in glorious denial and think everything is just hunky dory because we can rely on first-past-the-post.

Alternatively, as others have said it’s just that a basic level of competence looks radical.

Labour only got 34% of the vote on Thursday ffs. Whilst the arithmetic behind first-past-the-post worked very well this time there is no guarantee that it will do so next time.

Starmer needs to figure out a way of winning back some of the more than 3 million votes Labour has lost since 2017. Preferably before 2029 – there will plenty of local and by-elections before then.

In my constituency Labour won by 800 votes to the Tory’s, and there was no reform candidate.  I’d suggest that they probably just prioritize competence above all else, the new-town suburbs of Reading are not a hotbed of Socialism or Palestinian independence campaigning.  They just want a functioning government, a hospital that isn’t falling down (The Royal Berks is 185 years old), the potholes fixed and if it’s possible for the local flooding to not be a worldwide internet meme (that photo of the Tesla chargers in a flooded car park is here and happens at least monthly over winter).

In a FPTP system cementing those 800 swing votes has a better payback than anything else.  If you want to see a recent example of what happens when you try to appeal to your core voters at the expense of swing voters, have a look at this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

Having a strong opinion on Israel Vs Gaza is divisive at best, it has no electoral upsides.  And we politically we can’t do much about it.  We’ve already passed a Labour motion calling for a ceasefire and it had precisely as much effect as anyone probably expected.

On the other hand, in the Red Wall, you can’t our Reform Reform, and no one want’s to.  The only center-left solution to that is to actually be a competent government and make things better.  Most people don’t GAS about immigration, they GAS about the impact of immigration. Build houses, build infrastructure, build the NHS, deal with crime and it’ll disappear into the background again.

Without comment…… more very positive news from the new Labour government:

https://www.theguardian.com/law/article/2024/jul/08/labour-expected-to-drop-challenge-to-icc-over-netanyahu-arrest-warrant

I am not going to suggest that the unprecedented election of 5  pro-Palestine independents last Thursday has influenced that decision, but I am pretty certain that it wasn’t an election promise.

and if it’s possible for the local flooding to not be a worldwide internet meme (that photo of the Tesla chargers in a flooded car park is here and happens at least monthly over winter).

There’s a reason that they’re kept as car parks and not buildings in the Loddon valley…

Listening to Rachael Reeves speech, the thing that has struck me the most is that I can’t even remember the last I’ve heard a government minister even talk about issues like changing planning laws and house building in any meaningful way.

Its like they’ve spent the the last ten years hoping that if they just ignored it, perhaps it would all just go away.

So this is what it feels like to have an actual government? Its been a while.

the new-town suburbs of Reading are not a hotbed of Socialism or Palestinian independence campaigning.

Quite.Nobody I know in person has mentioned Gaza in any conversation. I’m always amazed how frequently it has been brought up in this thread as some sort of major factor in folks voting choices.

The ban on onshore wind lifted? I think she referred to it as nonsensical. Absolutely bloody right!

Listening to Rachael Reeves speech, the thing that has strook me the most is that I can’t even remember the last I’ve heard a government minister even talk about issues like changing planning laws and house building.

She sounds like an actual grown up. It is such a relief.