Well, typically sensationalist headline in yesterday’s Guardian, but an interesting article none-the-less.

The End of Motoring

“Designers commonly say that teenagers today aspire to own the latest smartphone more than a car.”

I suspect the whole phenomenon is aligned very closely with the rising cost of motoring, which the article only mentions in passing, but the stats and reasoning behind the number of journeys made per year are interesting I think.

Anyway, I thought you lot would be interested…

fine.

if you live in a city.

The cost of motoring has a massive amount to do with it. Back in 1992, my VW Polo cost less than £15 to fill up with unleaded. Now filling the same car would cost me £59.64.

Driving these days is a grind, but I do aspire to own an electric (or possibly hydrogen) powered vehicle one day. But I’m not going to pay upwards of £38k in today’s prices for it.

[edit] An awful lot of Guardian readers will be very pleased at that headline, just before they pop off in the Range Rover to collect Cressida and Tarquin from the local private school.

The kid who cuts my hair is buying a VW Polo for £1500.

It’s going to cost him £2400 to insure it for a year.

I think this is one reason young people see car ownership as a low priority.

Interesting article.

I’d agree with the above though – for young people it’ll mostly be about money. They’d all rather have a car than not – they just can’t afford to.

I do like the suggestion that in this digital age the desire for the concept of physical ownership seems to be waning among the young, and I don’t doubt it’s playing a part. But to be honest I’d guess it’s more likely the simple case that they’ve been priced out of the market.

As they have been with housing (homes) too. It’s no wonder young people are turning their back on aspiring to own anything bigger than an iPod. They might as well aspire to living on Mars.

jam bo
fine.

if you live in a city.

In 1900, according to the London School of Economics, 10% of the world’s population lived in cities. Five years ago the figure reached 50%. By 2050 it is likely to be 70%, or even 75.

Seen on the LA Times just the other day.

I’d agree with the above though – for young people it’ll mostly be about money. They’d all rather have a car than not – they just can’t afford to.

The point might be that it’s a thin end of a wedge, if an ever increacing proportion of those never drive? When I didn;t have a car I rarely wanted one, and TBH I reckon I could do without one despite having done 7000 miles since the start of July this year! It’s just a practicality thing over using the train, the cost would be pretty similar, and if I adapted to using the trains the practicality argument wouldn’t exist.

Good point, one I missed.

I suppose a generation of kids are growing up without the mistaken belief that a car is necessary. That’s a good thing. The increasing car reliance over the past few decades has been a total folly.

If you live in the country, it is necessary. For work, for college, for any kind of social life.

Kids see owning a car as a high priority. It’s leaving home that’s low priority.

If you live in the country, it is necessary. For work, for college, for any kind of social life.

I grew up in the country, much as people (who generaly grew up in cities) tell me it must have been wonderfull having all those fields,woods,barns, etc to play in. In reality it’s boring, isolated, and I wouldn’t make my kids grow up there!

Not in agreement with this article.

whilst it seems like petrol’s gone up ‘loads’, its only risen at less than 1% per annum above inflation over the last 28 years

source

which really isn’t that much

28 years ago was 1983 – when oil prices hit a massive peak. They rose quickly, then fell quickly.

why not pick 1970? the value

1% above inflation

would be very different.

did they? that table shows they dropped 2p over the next 5 years. Not a ‘quick fall’..?

they dropped 25p over the next 5 years.

(from the ‘constant terms’ column)

i’m not convinced we get a good idea of historical oil/fuel prices if we start our analysis in the early 1980’s.

have a look at this:

from some biofuels blog, but a quick google for ‘historical oil prices graph’ will bring up lots of graphs showing the same sort of thing, i just picked the first one.

I’m still fairly sure that the increases in the cost of fuel have been more than outstripped by the increases in the cost of public transport.

Don’t even get started on bikes either. I keep having to tell my wife that its costs £1000s to buy a bike to commute on these days 🙂

25%, yeah, but that’s more because of rampant inflation elsewhere. if you look at the last 18 years, you still get a figure below 3%. It is rising, but when stated like that, it’s not ‘massive’. the thing that bites most is the large rises in the last 3-4 years, but if you take fuel as a proportion of the total cost of motoring, its still a small component

btw, I wasn’t trying to mess with the figures, I just googled ‘1982 petrol price’ and it was the first thing that came up 🙂 oil prices are a little misleading as the pump price is effected more by taxation policy and exchange rates

Wow.
An interesting vision.
For years now, most people who live and work in London avoid owning a car. London is often ahead of national trends
The car sharing schemes are now providing all the access to a car that’s needed
It’s impossible to drive anywhere at a normal time of day without congestion, which everyone hates
Cost of running (fuel and petrol) is astronomical. This alone will persuade people to change behaviour
The whole trend of ownership and status through ownership has been coming through since early 2007 – this is not new
Working from home is now possible – no need to commute
easy to stay in contact with people without meeting face to face (Skype/BB/smartphones/webinars) all reducing need to travel.
Supermarket deliver to your door
Shop from home and have anything delivered…

The gains?
Less pollution
Cheaper not to run a car
Less stressful not having to drive
More free time, not having to travel

All setting up to be an emerging trend this one. From a cyclist’s point of view it’s heaven.
One of the main reasons people avoid riding bikes is the danger from traffic. We’re already seeing massive increases in cycling in London. No-one commutes by car here.
Be interesting to see how long it takes to get to the tipping point when car becomes the minority choice and cycling/public transport becomes the norm.
I’m not anti-car – I own one for getting to the trails – but bring this on…

overall cost of motoring as part of the typical ‘basket of goods’ is probably down though. if you look at car prices over the last 20 years, the inflation is pretty minimal (a small, basic family car cost £10k in 1991, costs maybe 13k now?)

People who’ve chosen to live a lifestyle that requires them to drive always seem to be the ones that complain the most about the cost of motoring.
Its interesting though that over 50% of journeys less than 2 miles are made by car and about 85% of journeys between 2 and 5 miles are made by car.

Working from home is now possible – no need to commute
easy to stay in contact with people without meeting face to face (Skype/BB/smartphones/webinars) all reducing need to travel.
Supermarket deliver to your door
Shop from home and have anything delivered…

The gains?
Less pollution
Cheaper not to run a car
Less stressful not having to drive
More free time, not having to travel

Wow, imagine that. A life where we dont actually ever have to leave or front door to do anything or meet anyone.

Seriously though, you raise a few good points.

I aspire to do the exact opposite of ‘the people’ on mass.

Wow, imagine that. A life where we dont actually ever have to leave or front door to do anything or meet anyone.

There’s definitely some downsides.
But humans, like nature, often take the easiest option and a short term view ignoring long term implications
I think this trend has already begun
From the bbc yesterday

British Cycling, the national governing body for the sport, has doubled its membership since 2007 to 40,000.

The organisation says that since 2009 it has increased by 74,500 the number of people cycling once per week

Is this because people love the idea of riding a bike (bearing in mind how anti-cycling the UK is generally) or because they’re looking for alternatives?
Boris bikes have been a hugely successful alternative to getting around London for utility…

That Peugeot Mu thing in the Guardian article is interesting.