Touristy area.

Far fewer tourists the last couple of months. Dropped off a cliff compared to last year. Clearly lots of people will be going abroad again, but I think it is more than just that. Colleague went away to a small holiday park, he was the only one there.

We have been going on fewer day trips as we start to count the cost of fuel.

Housing market locally seems to have completely frozen. Last year stuff sold in a day or two, lots not even advertised. This year there are loads for sale, silly asking prices and almost non shifting.

Things really starting to bite I feel.

Colleague went away to a small holiday park, he was the only one there.

Where? I want to book a reservation, that sounds ideal 😀

On a more serious note, I think this is just the thin end of the wedge..

We have certain global issues that we have no control over, but we also have the energy crisis, brexit, and it looks like the conservatives are about to instigate a trade war with the EU over Ireland at litterally the worst possible time.

Buckle up, kids!

Been rammed with tourist here since before Easter and showing no signs of stopping.

Housing still selling quick here but completion seems to take forever

Cafes, shops etc are steady rather than busy I think – a few new cafes have opened locally in the last couple of months which I think might seem brave in the medium term.

I’m being a bit more cautious with spending, concentrating on needs rather than wants. And plans for a new car have gone on hold as other household stuff has had to take priority. Our own holiday plans are on hold as daughters foreign trips are back on post Covid – Eurogym in Switzerland, music tour to Austria and school trip to Cern have pretty much **** this years budget.

At the beginning of the year we were seriously talking about me quitting work or taking a big downgrade as its destroyed my mental health, as we could have managed. Can’t really see that being possible now, not sure where that leaves me mentally..

I’m in the ‘buckle up’ camp too. Food bills are shooting up and we aren’t alone in saying that, but I think the summer won’t be so bad, once or turns cold again the number of people in real dire straits could be huge. So signs of a slow down? Well the government have acted and….oh.. ermm…

I’m spending less on fancy beer. There’s definitely a recession on the way 😀

It’s going to get bad, thankfully my wife and i seem to be in secure careers that will keep going despite an economic downturn, but thankfully we made sure our mortgage etc is small enough for one of us to cover it all

devon and cornwall seems a bit quieter than the madhouse this time last year. housing market is still mental.

Flew in/out of bristol airport last week and it was an utter shitshow.

I fear for any business that relies on discretionary spending, particularly in leisure. Will be the final nail in the coffin of many firms which have soldiered on past covid hoping for an upturn in its wake.

Sad at the thought of all those lockdown dogs which will get dumped as the money gets tight.

Belt tightening is to be expected. Count myself lucky that it is even a concept I have any control over.

It is the the fairly rapid change in house buying activity locally that surprised me. Confidence is a delicate thing.

Housing in Stoke-on-Trent and surrounding towns has gone mad. Houses selling within hours for more than asking and more than zoopla estimates. Jokes about stoke on trent aside, isn’t it the same everywhere else? I thought it was.
Fortunately for us rising costs just means less meals out, less weekend breaks away with the kids and slightly cheaper accommodation for our summer hols. I’m very glad I didn’t bend to the wife’s request to move to a massive house and mortgage a few years ago.

Definite downturn in parcels at my depot for delivery for most areas.

I know that on middleclasstrackworld a lot of people gauge the strength of the economy by the housing market in their area, but for most people their economic considerations are a bit more pressing than how much equity is in their property and how fast houses are selling in nearby streets. For a lot of people, property prices are about as relevant to them as the price of gold bullion

I fear for any business that relies on discretionary spending, particularly in leisure

I commented on the Boris Johnson thread about this. I was out with a mate last week who’s senior at one of the big online clothing retailers based in Manchester.

Not the type that are selling cashmere cardigans to Cheshire housewives

He commented that over the last month their sales haven’t just reduced, they have absolutely dropped off a cliff. They are selling virtually nothing. He thinks this is entirely down to the cost of living increases meaning that people just have no disposable income at all.

There are a lot of jobs dependent on this sector in and around Manchester.

I fear we’re in for one serious financial walloping, and we’ve a bunch of morons at the helm who’s bright idea to deal with this incoming economic shitstorm is to start a trade war with our nearest neighbours

Brilliant!

I’d hate to be dependent on benefits or on minimum wage in this country, because they are going to be absolutely ****ed when all this kicks in properly, and those presently in government couldn’t give a toss, as proved by their ‘buy value brands/get yourself a better paying job’ comments this week. Clueless!

Houses selling within hours for more than asking and more than zoopla estimates. Jokes about stoke on trent aside, isn’t it the same everywhere else? I thought it was.

It must be very much area dependent.
I’m just about to complete on a purchase, paying 1k more than the ‘offers over x’ price.

Friends were telling me I’d never secure the purchase… But I know the area well and know what things sell for.

Houses priced to sell will be snatched up very quickly. But equally I’ve seen some overpriced places on the market for months and even some reductions.

It just depends.

This week MrsRNP did 51covers of her free 3course sit down hot meal on Monday nights and take home food hamper from her community kitchen that she set up. Was 40 covers a few weeks ago.

This is for people who have fallen through the net including a couple of families with young kids.

We are fortunate that we don’t have kids or anything on lease/finance and have cleared the mortgage.

I’ve seen the people who fell through the net during Covid. MrsRNP did 300 Xmas dinners that we distributed – it’s going to be far worse than that this winter/xmas.

I went to Next on the IKEA retail park near Nottingham on Saturday afternoon (as I was in the area) – I braced myself for a nightmare getting in and out but the car park was half empty.

I’ve never seen it like that on a Saturday.

A small steak (grill) restaurant I do printing for said that no-one ordered steaks over the last weekend – all went for cheaper burgers and the like. Their profit margin on burgers is miles better than steaks though! 🙂

Kin busy in Northumberland.

Kin busy in Northumberland.

I was up at Kielder last WE and it was deserted, we had the mountain bikes trails to ourselves, didn’t see another rider on any of the single track (mid morning Saturday).

NB I realise that by admitting to having ridden a MTB I immediately forfeit the right to post in the Chat forum for 6 months. In my defense, it was the first time in about 10 years….

Colleague went away to a small holiday park, he was the only one there.

Maybe their bubble has burst. A lot of them have been taking the absolute piss with their pricing whilst going abroad has been a PITA. Now that’s changed and its cheaper for a family of 4 to go to Spain than it is for a caravan lodge down in Cornwall, I think they will start to struggle. And as for centreparcs…..

Lottery winner blows it all on week at Center Parcs https://t.co/NPrUIEGLxH pic.twitter.com/IeiifHU5Su

— The Daily Mash (@thedailymash) July 8, 2020

Mate of mine is a landscaper, normally he has about 5 or 6 jobs a week to quote for. Since Easter it’s gone off a cliff, maybe a couple of inquiries a fortnight now. It’s non essential spending of course – making the garden nice, so very much not a priority now storm clouds are gathering.

Cambridge city centre was busy last weekend with locals and visitors. Spending is hard though, I wanted a white non-slim for shirt for a wedding on Friday. I couldn’t find anything reasonable.

As for down turn, people are being hammered at the petrol station, fuel bills are insane and jobs are incredibly instable. Locally a house builder has gone into administration, on a new town build where the houses are all occupied.

Yet still there are plenty of people with money around and about.

I think it’s mixed. Day-to-day spending and ‘luxuries’ seem to have been cut but house prices are still going up and business activity is high (e.g. manufacturing). The demand for labour is also beyond supply, so I see wages going up soon.

Now’s the time to move job/get a pay rise, before you have to pay those energy bills in December!

Definitely some problems in ‘getting goods to market’, which is frustrating.

The demand for labour is also beyond supply, so I see wages going up soon.

Not for much longer. We’re heading for a 1981 style correction. Back then the tories deliberately caused a deep recession to reduce the labour force, and bring down wages and inflation. They’re doing the same again. We’ve seen nothing yet.

Yet still there are plenty of people with money around and about.

While I’m sure there are, I’m sure a fair few of the people you see about “with money” are actually just riding the wave with their credit rating. There’s probably another consumer debt Bubble following closely behind this cost of living/stagflation mess.

Still at least there’s some safe, yet compassionate hands at the wheel here in Blighty… Oh.

@dazh I disagree – where will all the staff come from to fill these vacancies? Are we happy to have less choice as a result?

I don’t think so. The loss of free labour movement between the UK and EU is causing shortages which are not being filled by other immigrants, or the local population. So we either accept less goods and services, or permit more immigration.

Also, the causes are supply-side, so the need to tackle input prices is greater than curbing consumer spending by increasing taxes – this would also harm the economy long-term by jeopardizing industry.

Much better to relax immigration and custom controls to facilitate growth and invest in domestic energy production and efficiency measures.

There’s no way this bunch of Brexit headbangers will allow immigration from the EU. That would be admitting defeat and there’s one thing they won’t do is admit they made a mistake.

There’s some very hard times coming for a lot of people, some of which have been insulated from it due to their credit bubble. I’m worried for my Mum and MiL, both pensioners with only state pensions to live on, no big pot of savings and no property to sell.

I’m keeping an eye out for an increase in goths walking around. They are the true harbingers of doom. Not a cause, but a portent for sure.

It would be a shame allowing dogma to harm the economy (and people) for avoidable reasons.

Yes, raising interest rates may curb inflation but I really do see trade (with other countries) as the best way out of this. It could help with the supply problems and avoid contraction of the economy.

I was up at Kielder last WE and it was deserted, we had the mountain bikes trails to ourselves, didn’t see another rider on any of the single track (mid morning Saturday).

That’s pretty normal for Kielder. I was in town today and sat outside having coffee, other than 3 people the rest were all tourists from around 30 people. Then there were the others in another cafe beside me, plus dozens walking through the market place.

Double whammy of Covid-19 and Ukraine war will bite hard this time. Blaming Brexit or the government is pointless. All governments in this world face the same prospect when fuel price starts to sky rocket. EU will also face the harsh reality soon. Sanctions bite but somehow it may bite the wrong hands. As I said the Ukraine thread sanction is not the way forward. I bet some governments may fall even before the Ukraine war is over. Bear in mind the longer the sanctions is in place the harder it will be for those that impose the sanctions. Think about it. Now the West cannot back off the sanctions because they will lose face and will proceed no matter how hard the ordinary people suffer. Even if a change of government will not make things better because the next government will want to do the “right thing” by getting themselves involved in the same situation (they think it is a vote winner). Whatever changes made will Not have massive impact unless the fuel price is dealt with first.

I think we’re in for some serious stagflation, rather than a recession. But the govt is reluctant to spend as they see that as exacerbating inflation. I think we will just bumble along for a year or two with living standards quietly dropping as we go!

I’m giving the war another 6 months max

I think we’re in for some serious stagflation,…

This time it will be very serious because the recovery is dependent on Ukraine war. Are we looking at 10 years? 20 years? Who will back off first?

Current fuel supply is practically cut off from the main supplier (Russia). Problem is that the West cannot back off as they have locked themselves into imposing sanctions on the fuel supplier. More or less scoring own goal.

But the govt is reluctant to spend as they see that as exacerbating inflation.

That’s not a solution. The solution is having fuel.

Loads of tourists here but pubs, cafes, restaurants and tourist facilities are closing on odd days or limiting features due to a lack of staff.

There’s a lack of staff because housing is unaffordable for those on lower wages.

Housing is unaffordable because it’s all being bought up as holiday homes or Air BnB for tourists …

Yet still there are plenty of people with money around and about.

out and about on my local country road rides in Lincolnshire, it baffles me where people are finding the money, there is a lot, and I mean A LOT of massive houses being built up here, in every village, on every plot available,

similar with cake & cookie shops, a few in town, 1 owned by my brothers ex mrs, and again, it baffles me who wants overpriced desserts deliver via ubereats at 9pm at night, but she’s booming and opening a 2nd shop,

it baffles me where people are finding the money

We are a very unequal society, and becoming increasingly so by design.

similar with cake & cookie shops, a few in town, 1 owned by my brothers ex mrs, and again, it baffles me who wants overpriced desserts deliver via ubereats at 9pm at night, but she’s booming and opening a 2nd shop,

No surprise there even during the WWII there were still places where people could still earn good money but they were in the minority.

We are a very unequal society, and becoming increasingly so by design.

No society is equal even in communist China. ie. there are rich communists and there are poor communists. Fact.

I’m amazed there aren’t more bikes knocking about – diesel went up again the other day to £1.81, why is nobody commuting on all those bike’s bought in lockdown?
I’m still the only person doing my route

I’m amazed there aren’t more bikes knocking about – diesel went up again the other day to £1.81, why is nobody commuting on all those bike’s bought in lockdown?
I’m still the only person doing my route

Friends were posting on group chat that to fuel up a motorbike in the far east only cost around £1.50 and has a range of 180km.

it baffles me where people are finding the money

Those that do have money, have plenty, those who had little enough before now have nothing

This has been the direction of travel in this country for decades, but that growth in equality has now been turbo-charged and is only set to get worse

The phrase ‘just about managing’ was a meaningless sound bite that is about to have a new resonance because those that were, won’t be for much longer