Viewing 40 posts - 41 through 80 (of 126 total)
  • Signs of economic slowdown
  • Premier Icon argee
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    RustyNissanPrairie
    Free Member
    I’m amazed there aren’t more bikes knocking about – diesel went up again the other day to £1.81, why is nobody commuting on all those bike’s bought in lockdown?
    I’m still the only person doing my route

    In the grand scheme of things, fuel prices haven’t hugely impacted that many, those driving 50 miles a week are only really seeing a couple of quid extra.

    You look at prices of other things, and it kind of makes you wonder why the whole country focuses on fuel, i went to a sandwich shop for the first time in a year last week, tuna baguette was a fiver, a year ago it was 3 quid, fish and chips that were 6 quid are now 9, inflation on fuel is just a headline winner, it’s everything else that’s the killer.

    Premier Icon kelvin
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    Indeed. Those being hit hardest by the current price rises can’t afford to run a car in the first place.

    Premier Icon Flaperon
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    Conversely I’m trying to give more trade to the small cafes and coffee shops in my town.

    There’s a certain irony in people who own businesses cutting back on their spending. It’s like phone companies putting their prices up by RPI + 4% and then complaining about inflation.

    Tourists seem about normal here in North Yorkshire but I was surprised how quiet Harrogate was at about 7pm last night. It seems fuel prices aren’t encouraging people to walk into town, instead they’re just staying at home.

    Premier Icon montgomery
    Free Member

    No society is equal even in communist China. ie. there are rich communists and there are poor communists. Fact.

    China is one of the most unequal societies on the planet – and it’s not communist, it’s a gangster/crony capitalist autocracy. But, y’know, apart from that…

    Premier Icon frankconway
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    @dirtyrider – lincolnshire is, as always, miles behind the curve.
    The tsunami of economic reality (and shit) will land soon.
    When that happens there will be apocalyptic headlines in The Lincolnite and Lincolnshire Live.

    Premier Icon argee
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    Conversely I’m trying to give more trade to the small cafes and coffee shops in my town.

    I wish i could, the price of everything is just daft locally, if we go out for the day and to the cafe down the park, lunch for me and my daughter can be 15 quid easy, that’s a sandwich, drink and cake each, nip down McD’s like she wants and it’s a fiver, you can’t really compete in this climate, that extra tenner is needed.

    The biggest issue i have these days is the price of fruit, it’s just gone daft, and quality has gone down, i’m guessing Brexit has caused delays that means it spoils faster, or more chance of issues with quality, i just seem to be throwing out half the fruit i buy as it’s not right, either through spoiling, or tasting weird, and at 2 quid a punnet, it’s not easy to keep buying.

    Premier Icon binners
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    A good summary of the difference in effect of the present situation between those at the bottom and those at the top

    A situation this government seem quite relaxed about. But then they would be, wouldn’t they?

    Premier Icon airvent
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    The biggest issue i have these days is the price of fruit

    Indeed, 6 apples were over £2.50 in my local Tesco yesterday, that’s a hard sell when you’re supposed to eat at least 5 fruit and veg a day…

    Premier Icon thecaptain
    Free Member

    Dales (Grassington/Hawes/Ingleton/Settle) was rammed last Saturday. Don’t disagree there is a storm coming for sure! But no sign of it yet, not here anyway. It was a beautiful day but not a holiday weekend.

    Of course a day out in the Dales is pretty cheap anyway.

    Premier Icon Drac
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    You look at prices of other things, and it kind of makes you wonder why the whole country focuses on fuel, i went to a sandwich shop for the first time in a year last week, tuna baguette was a fiver, a year ago it was 3 quid, fish and chips that were 6 quid are now 9,

    And what is one biggest expenses for producing all those?

    Premier Icon dazh
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    I disagree – where will all the staff come from to fill these vacancies? Are we happy to have less choice as a result?

    You’ve completely missed my point. They have no intention of filling the vacancies. They’re going to shrink the economy to remove the vacancies so they don’t have to fill them. The Bank of England has already said as much.

    This is what happened in 1981. They induced a recession and caused mass unemployment which in turn brought down inflation. They then used the opportunity to remove worker protections. Remember the slogan ‘If it’s not hurting, it’s not working’?

    Yes, raising interest rates may curb inflation

    No it won’t. You’ve already said this inflation is supply side. Raising interest rates will do nothing to fix that. Raising interest rates will only do one thing, which is slow down the economy. On top of the already plummeting consumer spending that’s going to crash the economy. All those vacancies will disappear in a heartbeat and we’ll go the other way with skyrocketing unemployment. Brexit labour problems will be solved, and the ground ripe for the next phase of destruction of labour protections and privatisations (the NHS). This has always been the plan, ask Binners, he knows how this works.

    Premier Icon dazh
    Full Member

    I think we’re in for some serious stagflation, rather than a recession.

    Stagflation is a recession! But combined with persistent inflation. Usually inflation would drop as the economy shrinks, but this is supply side so it will stay high. The double whammy of a shrinking economy and inflation will cause poverty on a scale not seen since the early 80s. The tories don’t mind, because it solves the labour problems and reduces the national debt. Eventually inflation will come down, but not before laying waste to the economy and the lives of millions. I agree with Binners, there’s going to be some serious civil unrest.

    Premier Icon nickc
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    Prices in the supermarkets are going insane. My weekly shop (for two) is pretty routine, and fairly sparse when it comes to luxuries – no biscuits, booze, crisps etc, has now gone from about £75 to £90. Butter alone (and we’re talking supermarket own label has gone from 90p (ish) to double that, last week the same thing cost me £1.85. Also noticed a bit of size reduction. Fage yoghurt has gone from 500g to 450 for the same price…

    Premier Icon alpin
    Free Member

    I’ve noticed prices here in Germany have increased, so it’s not an exclusively British recession.

    Diesel and petrol are both still over the 2€ mark, petrol at around 2.40€, I think.

    Prices in Gastro have increased by 10-20% over the last year. Friends with establishments have said footfall and takings are. Down this year on last and that’s without corona rules in place.

    Neighbour runs a theatre in town about 20% full is the fullest he’s seen his audience this year.

    There was something on the radio the other day talking about inflation hitting 8%, possibly 10%.

    Lots of belt tightening needed.

    Premier Icon nickc
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    I bet some governments may fall even before the Ukraine war is over

    Sri Lanka and Lebanon for starters.

    Premier Icon martinhutch
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    Dales (Grassington/Hawes/Ingleton/Settle) was rammed last Saturday. Don’t disagree there is a storm coming for sure! But no sign of it yet, not here anyway. It was a beautiful day but not a holiday weekend.

    Of course a day out in the Dales is pretty cheap anyway.

    I think a fair chunk of our visitors are those with secure retirement incomes and few outgoings, who are presently more insulated from everything except fuel price rises. I expect that to change by the end of the season, even they will have to budget.

    Premier Icon kilo
    Full Member

    i went to a sandwich shop for the first time in a year last week, tuna baguette was a fiver, a year ago it was 3 quid, fish and chips that were 6 quid are now 9,

    And what is one biggest expenses for producing all those?

    Fish? Don’t tell me there’s a fish shortage now????

    If we’re doing tenuous anecdotes on economic slow down, apart from noticing the increase in price for fig rolls (could also be a brexit thing as they’re Irish biscuits) I put in a cheeky eBay bid on a vintage road bike a week ago, old steel colnago – the sort of thing that would have flown away a year ago and is pretty much a heart not brain purchase as a modern road bike would be far better. Absolutely no thought that I’d win it. Not one other bid on it, picking it up next week.

    Premier Icon intheborders
    Free Member

    Cambridge city centre was busy last weekend with locals and visitors. Spending is hard though, I wanted a white non-slim for shirt for a wedding on Friday. I couldn’t find anything reasonable.

    No problem buying shirts in slim 🙂

    Premier Icon robola
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    old steel colnago

    Shhh, the government will add it to the RPI basket to reduce the inflation headline figure.

    Premier Icon binners
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    Lots of belt tightening needed.

    Indeed. And thats fine for people like us who, I imagine, largely have a bit of room to manoeuvre on that front

    But after ten+ years of austerity and the ‘scaling back’ of the state, theres a huge amount of people who’s belts are already so tight that they can already barely breath. Theres no room left for any more tightening. And these are largely people in work, not people ‘sat on benefits’.

    We may have the lowest ever unemployment, but a lot of those jobs don’t actually provide an income that is sufficient to live on. Lots of people were already living a subsistence level existence. And that was before these price huge rises, with yet more huge increases in the pipeline

    That Peston thing above explains how the real inflation rate for the poor is actually far higher as they have no discretionary spending or disposable income. All their income goes straight away on essentials, and those are all the things that have seen the highest price rises

    A good summary by Jack Monroe here

    Premier Icon jam-bo
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    whats the coffee bean inflation rate running at? asking for a friend..

    Coffeetrackworld – where are you getting your beans from? – Singletrack World Magazine

    Premier Icon Kryton57
    Full Member

    Mrs K just called and asked me if I want to pick up a Pret sandwich for lunch. I said yes, get me one and give it to the nearest homeless person on the way home, I can make lunch from the fridge.

    Where we can afford to, we need to think of others that needs support.

    Premier Icon scotroutes
    Full Member

    Where we can afford to, we need to think of others that needs support.

    In my case, that means supporting my daughter. I started working in the “you’re on your own now, son” days of the 1970s and never had to ask my parents for anything once I started earning but I realise that it’s a lot tougher for younger folk now so I’m going against my in-built principles and raiding my savings to keep her afloat 😜

    Premier Icon duncancallum
    Full Member

    @binners

    Saw that a few months ago, I’ve been saying for weeks inflation is way over 10%.

    It’s only lower due to the big ticket items they throw into the mix

    Come winter if the energy prices don’t calm down its going to be horrific.

    My mates a farmer he’s now not as the inflation on grain, fertiliser etc meant his end product was worth less than the ingredients,

    The weird bit Is the price in the supermarket has risen but he’s not seen that.

    Premier Icon Edukator
    Free Member

    I realise that it’s a lot tougher for younger folk now so I’m going against my in-built principles and raiding my savings to keep her afloat

    Same here, I’ve had nothing from my parents from age 18 in 1978 but junior lives in a different age. My rent used to be a tiny proportion of my income, it’s over half his. If he runs out living modestly and working I’m there to fill the hole.

    Premier Icon argee
    Full Member

    If we’re doing tenuous anecdotes on economic slow down,

    They were meant to be tenuous, as it was aimed at how fuel prices are the headlines every time, but in most instances it costs someone a couple of quid a week more to drive around, but a sarnie or fish supper has gone up the same amount and not many really talk about that, which is a bigger impact to the UK, as it’s something folk can cut away, then those sandwich shops and chippies go under.

    Premier Icon matt_outandabout
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    I think the real impact will be seen this autumn and winter. And it’s not going to be pretty.

    Premier Icon fossy
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    MrsF works for an online retailer (household goods, tools, garden furniture) and they’ve seen a noticeable down turn in sales – enough that they are cancelling orders. They did, however, have a good year or so when covid hit.

    Food prices have shot up, we’re really taken a hard look at our electricity consumption, and I’m cycling to the office when in – Just that saves about £7 a day. We always make some ‘extra’ food that then goes into the freezer for lunch.

    Premier Icon sneakyg4
    Full Member

    I work for a luxury goods manufacturer. Sales have slowed down due to supply issues – we simply can’t manufacture enough product. This is down to a lack of labour in the far east, a consequence of Covid lockdowns.

    I am lucky enough to have a bit of spare cash coming in, but right now I am tightening the belt and stashing every spare penny, as the storm is coming.

    Premier Icon binners
    Full Member

    The CBI, that hotbed of rabid socialists, has just issued a statement saying the government need to do something, and fast, as ‘business confidence is evaporating‘, while needing to point out some fairly rudimentary economics

    I’m sure that this lot will do what they did during covid when immediate action was required

    Stable doors and horse and all that

    Premier Icon the-muffin-man
    Full Member

    Sykes Cottages have just sent me a £50 off voucher if I take a break before 31st of July.

    I’ve never known them discount in season! 🙂

    Times must be hard on the Cornish Riviera.

    Premier Icon w00dster
    Full Member

    My little anecdotal story…..I’m over in Spain, still full of British and Scottish. Travelled back out of Manchester last week, flight was rammed as was the rest of the airport.
    Before coming back over here I was in North Wales for a week, was busy . Cafes seemed to be doing well. I didn’t go to the bars so not sure how they were doing of an evening.
    I do think the shit show is coming, it’ll be into next spring before it really hits in my view. People will rack up debts with winter and Xmas and may struggle to make their payments from March and April.

    Premier Icon toby1
    Full Member

    No problem buying shirts in slim 🙂

    Fatist 😉

    I’m big boned (and I love biscuits!)

    Premier Icon intheborders
    Free Member

    In my case, that means supporting my daughter. I started working in the “you’re on your own now, son” days of the 1970s and never had to ask my parents for anything once I started earning but I realise that it’s a lot tougher for younger folk now so I’m going against my in-built principles and raiding my savings to keep her afloat 😜

    There was also wider ‘safety net’ in those days, and we weren’t so dependent on our parents so much either – I signed on the day I left school for example, worked the following week and then signed back on again after 6 weeks (temp job) for the summer. Also back then folk employed youngsters as they were cheaper, now they just employ adults (part-time).

    Don’t earn enough for rent? No issue when I was younger, but now…

    https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2014/jan/10/housing-benefit-under-25-young-people-cuts

    But TBH my folks looked after us, and we’ve looked after our kids – but then we were full on middle class (and still are), even had a dishwasher, in 1970!

    Premier Icon dazh
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    The CBI, that hotbed of rabid socialists, has just issued a statement saying the government need to do something, and fast

    They’re not going to do anything. This is the plan, and as far as they’re concerned it’s playing out exactly as it’s supposed to.

    Premier Icon sneakyg4
    Full Member

    They’re not going to do anything. This is the plan, and as far as they’re concerned it’s playing out exactly as it’s supposed to.

    Completely agree, its all going to plan.

    Premier Icon blurty
    Full Member

    Exactly, inflation affects those with a low (or no) disposable income disproportionately.

    As some people slide into low net income/ poverty situations the government is going to find out how pissed off folk become when things are taken away from them or become unaffordable.

    Premier Icon binners
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    Not often that me and Daz agree, but I think you’re bang on that this lot have absolutely no intention of lifting a finger to alleviate any hardship, particularly not for the poor.

    I think we might be in for a re-run of full on 80’s Fatcherism where a Tory government just sits back and with callous disregard just watches millions plunged into poverty

    All must be sacrificed on the alter of their free market dogma. Liz Truss made that clear this morning. The government is ‘fundamentally opposed’ to any form of state intervention

    I fear it’ll ultimately provoke a similar backlash to the ‘managed decline’ of the 80’s

    This ‘levelling Up’ lark is going great, isn’t it?

    Premier Icon pictonroad
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    Fish? Don’t tell me there’s a fish shortage now????

    Most schools have already pulled fish from the menu, lots of generic cheap white fish used to come from Russia.

    Premier Icon Daffy
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    The government are banking (literally) on the energy market reorganising itself by the the end of Q3 (Russian energy to China, India, etc, Gulf, US and Africa to Europe) and seeing a slow decrease in energy prices in Q4, Q1 and Q2 23. They’ll accept some short term pain (local election results, etc) knowing that there’s naff all the opposition can really do. They’ll then position themselves as having known this was a blip and having controlled it via the international diplomacy of the PM.

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