Osbourne says no to currency union.

@kona – yes it was what the company said, I’ve read all the direct quotes and the various press releases. SL believes an independent Scotland without a currency union with the UK is a material risk to its business. Your export analogy doesn’t make sense in this case. Retail financial services rely on relatively thin margins, an adverse move between the Scottish currency and the pound would wipe out its profits very quickly, that’s exactly why they’ve put this contingency plan in place.

Standard Life said the same thing before the devolution vote in 1992. They might well decide it’s in their interests to leave, but the board of SL has already been seen to be dishonest when it comes to political involvement.

jambalaya – Member

@kona – yes it was what the company said, I’ve read all the direct quotes and the various press releases.

Perhaps you’d care to quote one then? SL have said they’ve prepared contingency plans but as far as I can see they’ve not said what you claim- that they will leave Scotland if there is no currency union.

SL pointed out the material issues which remain unclear including currency, regulatory framework and whether Scotland would join the eu on the quoted schedule. All of these are material risks to the company which they are seeking to mitigate by preparing a plan (and setting up the relevant uk companies) to move to the uk in the event of a yes vote. All 3 UK political parties have said there will be no currency union. SL have said they will move their business if there is a material risk to it post the referendum, the currency issue alone ticks that box.

Before the next Oscar is awarded ..

SL will also have a major issue with Scotland meeting it’s target of joining the eu on the agreed timetable, this will have a major negative impact on its UK pension business unless the management of that moves to the UK and thus retains its status as a business domiciled and regulated by an eu member.

Project Fear are at it again I see with their relentlessly negative campaign. Oh no hang on…

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/03/scotland-powerless-independence-nicola-sturgeon-snp-uk

Ah so what you meant was, “SL haven’t actually said this at all, but here’s some speculation”. Cheers!

grum – Member

Or maybe she remembers the cuts made by Westminster after the unsucessful vote in the late 70’s. George Younger (the then Scottish Sec) had to go cap in hand as he feared civil unrest if he implemented the “revenge budget”

Bunch of polled questions in the Goniad.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/01/english-welsh-majority-against-scots-independence

That just looks like a middle England wish list.

Yep.

An online poll for good measure, no idea how well it was conducted.

Another Grauniad poll:

The Scots are more anxious than the English and Welsh about the effect of independence on the United Kingdom as a whole, and also worry about Scotland in particular. That is the finding of new Ipsos Mori polling on both sides of the border, which has been exclusively shared with the Guardian.

An outright majority of Scots – 52% – believe that a yes vote would weaken the pound, compared with just 32% of voters in England and Wales. Large proportions of Scots likewise believe that independence would reduce available public funds – 49% fear it would mean less public money in Scotland, compared with the mere 24% of voters south of the border who believe the break-up of the union would mean spending cuts in England or Wales.

Similar proportions – 52% in Scotland, 53% in England and Wales – believe that the Scottish economy would be negatively affected by independence.

Scottish voters say departure would have graver effects for the UK as a whole than do their English counterparts. A Scottish majority of 57%, compared with just 43% of English and Welsh voters, believe the UK economy would be damaged; 51% of Scots believe the UK’s standing in the world would decline, a view shared by only 40% of voters south of the border.

More Scots (63%) than English and Welsh (50%) feel that independence would lead to a worsening relationship between Edinburgh and the residual UK. Among Scots, 47% expect that political independence would weaken north-south cultural ties, compared with only 37% who fear that in England and Wales.

Polling method

The Scottish results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents (adults aged over 16) conducted by telephone 20-25 February 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population, England and Wales results are based on a survey of 1,012 respondents (adults aged 18-plus) across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 1-3 February 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

I guess project fantasy still have some work to do!

It looks like the Dec poll was of 101% of a selection of the population.

Some more quality politics

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-facing-aberdeen-council-ban-1-3327016

It looks like the Dec poll was of 101% of a selection of the population.

Would you prefer them to round the figures incorrectly, or provide accuracy far greater than the experimental error?

To be fair, England winning the World Cup is on the list of things less likely than Scotland voting yes to independence.

Beveridge and Hughes Hallett on currency union.
Plan A is correct
They are both critical of Paul Krugman about 4 minutes in.

Thanks for that post Gordi – I watched first 10 mins but need to go now. I will try to watch it all later.

AS should not HH’s opening words – all currency options have pros and cons – ie, you cant pretent that you only have the pro’s!!! He was “clever” when discussing risk-sharing!!!

There will be some on here unhappy with Beveridges conclusion that ultimately the economics will trump the politics!!

The main gist still seems (1) Plan A is correct for Scotland and (2) admitting that there is a Plan B is poor negotiating. IMO, they have got this wrong!!

Not admitting there is a plan B, when the people who would need to agree a plan A have ruled it out would appear to be poor negotiating. I note that it doesn’t matter how much they might say plan A is in the best interests of rUK if those in rUK happen to disagree.

Currency union is not going to happen. It would not be in the interest of the UK and would never make it past a referendum.

Opposition to currency union rises sharply[/url]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26455655

I suspect both sides will see this as good news…

Massive boost for Yes Scotland

Massive boost for Yes Scotland

I assume this is some sort of funny joke referring to Gordon Brown’s huge lack of popularity in Scotland ?

Despite clear evidence which suggests a completely different reality ?

At the last general election the Labour Party in Scotland, under Gordon Brown’s leadership, received more than twice the number of votes of its nearest rival.

And Gordon Brown’s personal vote in the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency was almost five times greater than that of his nearest rival (the SNP)

We didn’t vote for Blair either apparently.

looks like the Scots are off

AS is going to get his dream

I assume this is some sort of funny joke

ooh, check you out mr grumpy pants

So I did get that right – it was a joke ?

Ha ha …..it’s funny cause it’s not true, right ?

Very good ! 🙂

Why worry about a bloke who describes HIMSELF as an ex-politician, who rarely votes and who speaks approx 1 a year in the HoC (at least that is normally on constituency matters)? TBF, his genuine charitable donations mark him above another similar ex-politician.

So wee eck’s “friends in EU” are bullying again with reminding him how laws work. How will he twist this one? It’s great not to be over-exposed to the auld friends at Gogarburn, perhaps?

In dear leaders 2008 “arc of prosperity” speech, RBS and HBOS were considered Scottish. They are not now, as they are damaged goods.

Your export analogy doesn’t make sense in this case. Retail financial services rely on relatively thin margins, an adverse move between the Scottish currency and the pound would wipe out its profits very quickly,

You’re making the fundamental error of assuming that if SL were in an independent Scotland it would automatically be converting its revenue into a new Scottish currency – which is both a goalpost-shift from your earlier assertion that even unilateral pound use would be unacceptable and also…untrue. You can avoid currency risk by not exchanging money pointlessly.

It wasn’t an export analogy by the way – the provision of financial products overseas is an export.

Global banking group ‘astonished’ at Scottish Govt’s inability to form a coherent currency policy :-

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26489307

although they do say Scotland welching on debt would benefit Scotland in the short term.

Legally independent Scotland has no debt to renege on.

..or currency.

If Scotland doesn’t take on any debt then the UK does not share any assets with it. No military equipment, no embassies, no share of gold reserves etc. The UK can string out negotiations for as long as we want. Small countries do not bully big countries.

Small countries do not bully big countries

Especially ones with strategically important naval bases to protect 😆

fasternotfatter – Member
…Small countries do not bully big countries.

I’m sure the Iraqis would be delighted to hear that…

Replacing trident would be hugely expensive and no longer having a base to operate from would be the ideal time to decommission trident. So a significant saving to the UK taxpayer, a loss of 6500 jobs and a massive bill to clean up Faslane for Scotland.
Small countries do not bully big countries. You take your share of the debt or you get nothing else.

fasternotfatter – Member
…You take your share of the debt or you get nothing else.

Taking a share of the debt was always the intention. This has been stated time after time.

My understanding is that the debt is issued by the UK’s national bank, which is called the Bank of England. So if we are not to get our share of that property, why should we assume our share of its debts?

Most of us would be quite happy not to share in it if it meant we came into independence debt free. Simple, we share we take a share of the debt, you keep it all you keep all the debt. However, that’s England’s choice on how that goes, not ours.

And talking about small countries, just remember in about 3 or 4 years time you’re going to be the small country isolated on the edge of Europe with your UKIP govt, while Scotland will be a member of the EU. Don’t believe the scaremongering about Scotland not getting into the EU – the EU will not disenfranchise 5 million of its citizens to keep England happy when it knows that England is likely to leave the EU soon.