The Merc engine is still a bit ahead of everyone else on power. I assume they now fully understand the reliability problems and will probably make another small step forward next year. I guess Honda/Red Bull will do the same, so those two should be fully competitive engine-wise. Ferrari and Renault both have major engine upgrades planned, but it’s hard to see them overtaking Merc, plus they are more likely to suffer reliability problems if they push hard for performance.
What we saw this year was Merc and Red Bull did a much better job of adapting their cars from circuit to circuit. McLaren, Ferrari, and the others were sometimes really competitive but then would fall way back on other circuits. I think this is because Merc and Red Bull have invested heavily in simulation, plus they have the manufacturing facilities to turn out revised aero kits very quickly. Even if they start off a bit behind, I expect those two teams will be right at the front next year.
Ferrari have excellent infrastructure, their engine should be close to the front, and they have probably been able to focus more resources on next year’s car than the front two. I think they will be top three again next year, quite possibly challenging for the championship.
McLaren don’t have the resources of the top three teams yet, but they will have been focusing on next year, not this year. They will have a fully competitive engine, so I guess probably somewhere from third to fifth next year. Similar with Renault, they are still rebuilding and their engine is a bit of an unknown, so probably fourth or fifth.
Alpha Tauri should be a solid mid-field car again, but they just don’t have the infrastructure to keep up with the bigger teams. If Tsunoda can find some consistency, anywhere from fourth to seventh.
Aston Martin showed this year that their technical department is a long way from the top teams. They obviously did not understand the car that they copied from Merc and didn’t know how to overcome the penalty of the new rules. They have two decent drivers, but I can’t see them being better than sixth to eighth fastest.
I doubt that Alfa Romeo will be able to keep up with the development rate of the bigger teams, even if they start with a decent car. Bottas is a decent qualifier, but he seems to struggle to pass anyone and the new Chinese guy is a big gamble. Similar with Williams. They are still suffering from years of underinvestment and won’t be able to develop their car fast enough to keep up. Albon is a decent driver but he’s not in the same league as Russell and Latifi is pretty average. Despite all the talk, I can’t see either of those teams really finishing higher than seventh to ninth.
Hass have been putting all their money into next year, but they obviously do not have the technical infrastructure to develop a car through the season. Neither driver has experience of developing a halfway competitive car so they’ll probably be right at the back again unless someone else designs an utter dog of a car.
