EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Jambas argument falls over on execution. Where is there any evidenc that supports the Tory plan for 10k net migration – or whatever the figure is. Nowhere. It’s just a number that isn’t zero but is small enough or keep the xenophobes happy. It’s BS.

Immigration has benefitted the economy with migrants from the EU making a greater positive impact than migrants from non EU. So what do we propose…..nonsensical, xenophobic BS.

teamhurtmore, thanks, I understand the remain arguments, they have been put clearly.
I am seeking the logic of the leave arguments, there must be some compelling reasons that make sense, they just appear to have been lost.

The americans I work with praise us for Brexit just as we praise them for Trump.

5plusn8 – I am, quite seriously, loving your work.

I am seeking the logic of the leave arguments

Here’s theweeks assessment of the pros and cons. I’m sure there are better.

http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit-0

Where are you looking?

The Brexshiteers conceded the economic argument from the outset. That was never part of their argument. Their “logic” was focused on immigration, keeping money at home and legal jurisdiction. All pander to the hard of thinking. immigration had no factual basis, the money refers to false claims about a sum that is less than 1% of GDP and the legal arguments were largely unfounded scaremongering.

So the logic is illusory. But and it’s a big. It RESONATED. It shows how bad we were if this BS resonates more than the truth. But it did and it does. This is the world we live in. We need to understand it and get used to it. And then work to overcome it. So far we merely made a feeble attempt to deny the process which is frankly pathetic.

We should have learned form nearly losing the Scottosh referendum. BS works, fact-based analysis of economics doesn’t. It too hard to understand but too easy to manipulate – the great skil of the deceitful one. Look how he fooled so many on here. He’s a magical purveyor of snake oil.

OOB – not a bad start, but given the time since it was written some things have changed. Theresa May’s position is now (0900 Thursday) more extreme than Farage’s quoted position in that piece.
Meanwhile some things have come true, though I suspect it is patchy – the fall in investment by car manufacturers for example.

Edit: THM is of course spot on there. If somewhat more passionate on the subject that me (for a change 😉 )

5plusn8 – Member

Why can’t you fix it (the pensions problem) by increasing popluation?

that’s not a solution, that’s just punting the problem along a few decades.

(and making it an even bigger problem)

Which car company has reduced its investment since the vote?

“The Brexshiteers conceded the economic argument from the outset.”

I’d go further than that, I think a slowing of growth is perceived as a good thing by a many people.

I didn’t vote Brexit but it was obvious that Brexit might reduce the amount of building going on and sure enough the day after shares in building firms dropped like a stone which perhaps supports the idea there will be less building.

Many people are sick to death of growth.

Not a clue THM, but the SMMT say so – down from £2.5b to £1.66b – and they should know.

An article from the pro-remain Torygraph…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/26/uk-car-production-drives-17-year-high-investment-stalls-uncertainty/

I didn’t vote Brexit but it was obvious that Brexit might reduce the amount of building going on and sure enough the day after shares in building firms dropped like a stone which perhaps supports the idea there will be less building.

Many people are sick to death of growth.
Bit of a problem as it won’t stop the fact that there is not enough house building for the current population as it stands. I thought they had just announced all these new towns & villages – should be a kick off in building if that was the case.

Not a clue THM, but the SMMT say so – down from £2.5b to £1.66b – and they should know. [/I]

Pretty normal capex vs output process.

Invest plenty, then as you turn off the investment the output continues to grow as you’re ‘using’ the investment.

The bigger concern is that they’ll need to turn back on the investment ‘tap’ at some point otherwise output will fall as machinery becomes dated/worn-out, new products are required or better manufacturing techniques are identified. And this really is the crux of the whole Nissan story in the summer.

@5nplus8 @awhiles has answered it. We are not saving enough per head to pay for future costs. More people just makes the problem worse. The immigration solution onky works if the people do not stay and leave the uk without any pension benefits

The immigration solution onky works if the people do not stay and leave the uk without any pension benefits

Which plenty do, at this stage we don’t know what migration will be post Brexit, seeing as with a target of 10,000 they signed off on about 150k non EU migrants it could all get a bit messy. That’s before we work out there are not enough Dr’s Nurses and fruit pickers.

The immigration solution onky works if the people do not stay and leave the uk without any pension benefits

And if they have no kids. If they have two or more, then we’re ok.

And if they have no kids. If they have two or more, then we’re ok.

eh?

it only works if they have no kids? and it works if they have 2 or more?

(not trying to be difficult, just having trouble making sense of stuff today – full of cold and coffee)

Jambas that isn’t true, especially with public sector pensions. As we both agree this is a little more than a ponzi scheme, even if some vocal residents of this parish who will rely on it don’t understand.

For the pyramid to stay standing the base needs to bigger than the summit. Under current demographics this will not be the case. We need to have a bigger economically active base to support the increasing number of economically inactive pensioners. Either that or cut the pensions dramatically .

or, pay more in…

(individually, and or nationally. There are a few options, it’s not an either-or)

Agree re Ponzi scheme.

“Bit of a problem as it won’t stop the fact that there is not enough house building for the current population as it stands. I thought they had just announced all these new towns & villages – should be a kick off in building if that was the case.”

Yep.

B r , I agree except that in this case the Brexshit Bugle suggests that the reduction in investment was due to the uncertainty over the vote. That is logical and another reason why delaying/obstructing the process further is unhelpful.

Are all the people who are sick of growth, sick of rising earnings?

Or pay in more, true…..

…how did that suggestion go down last time?!?

Teamhurtmore – Member

Are all the people who are sick of growth, sick of rising earnings?

the first in no way guarantees the latter.

…how did that suggestion go down last time?!?

more or less every year, i receive a letter, from my pension provider, telling me that i along with all my colleagues now need to pay in more, for longer.

we all grumble about it, and carry on.

For the pyramid to stay standing the base needs to bigger than the summit. Under current demographics this will not be the case. We need to have a bigger economically active base to support the increasing number of economically inactive pensioners. Either that or cut the pensions dramatically .

Yup the oldies have doubly screwed us over

having enjoyed low tax, free healthcare, libraries, retiring at 65, (tripple locked) state pensions, things that I and my children will definitely never have.

Now as theyve voted to shut us out of the free market in the fear of immigrants and sneering condescension towards europeans the pyramid will crumble

No jobs will be created, no industries saved, no community enhanced by scapegoating immigrants for our problems. It’s time to call out those whose diet of hate, division and suspicion will create nothing but misery and poverty. It’s time to stop the nuanced language and call out lies where we see them.

Seb Dance MEP for london and the guy who summed up Farage yesterday with a piece of A4 nails why Brexit is a sad joke.

Yup the oldies have doubly screwed us over

This one didn’t. I’m as pissed off as you.

Heard John McDonald on the radio this am, and I’m confused now by the actual process (may be covered above but there’s about a billion messages)

He said that they (Labour) would not impede the progress of triggering article 50 through Parliament, because that’s what democracy voted for.

But then as i understand it that is simply the process of giving notice that we’re leaving, the leaving happens in 2 years time. And he wouldn’t commit to supporting that because they don’t know what the deal is yet.

I know no-one’s ever done this before so it’s all a bit don’t know, but I was under the impression that once you give notice you can’t then withdraw it if you don’t like the deal you get. It’s a case of when the music stops in 2019 then you unwrap whatever you’re holding at the time. If that’s right what’s the point of promising that they won’t keep the door shut now, but if needs be will slam it very hard once the horse is somewhere in the next field?

The Brexshiteers conceded the economic argument from the outset.

Are all the people who are sick of growth, sick of rising earnings?

Since you pointed out the case for Brexit wasn’t an economic one perhaps you should tell me.

If you want me to guess I’d say that Britain is cash rich-land poor and many people would bite your hand off for a bit less wealth for a bit more land per person.

With our lousy productivity record, I’m afraid it does ahw

That is logical and another reason why delaying/obstructing the process further is unhelpful.[/I]

Except if the new ‘world’ is deemed to be either riskier or less attractive than the vote-to-now scenario then investment will now reduce.

In theory you can’t. Hence as she who must be hated noted, you would fall back on WTO. Those who voted leave should have understood that.

As I said several pages back, it’s now about finding a win:win solution to a lose:lose problem. Not easy

conceded the economic argument from the outset.

Growth alone is insufficient to look at net benefit/cost of membership. It should be a full analysis looking at all the costs including housing and health care provision. It should also look at the drag of being shackled to an economic corpse and the loss of flexibility in being able to efficiently and quick negotiate trade arrangements. O such analysis has ever been carried out to my knowledge, the Leave campaign where denied access to the data and now the Government is very busy with getting on with Brexit. Had Remain based their Brexit projections on more reasonable assumptions they may have had more credibility although I suspect margin of Leave vicotry woukd have been greater as more people would have decided the reduced growth in the short term was a price worth paying for taking back control.

The net benefits are obvious – membership of the EU resulted in a significant increase in trade both with the EU and outside the EU, the latter boosted by our ability to negotiate better deals thanks to being part of the EU. Immigration had a net positive impact on the economy too and the EU also bought benefits in terms of safeguarding rights, the environment and common standards. All for a cost that is less than 1% of national output.

Leave merely discounted facts and experts in favour of BS, and it worked. Brillantly in fact. That’s why is so sad.

Still we are now faking control – funny that the SNP want to do this further by faking control, giving it Brussels in a manner that we had avoided. The perverse nature of modern post truth politics

teamhurtmore – Member
With our lousy productivity record, I’m afraid it does ahw

no, it doesn’t.

more people = growth, but it does not mean that i/we/everyone gets a pay-rise.

it does mean more pressure on schools, hospitals, transport, etc. more pollution, higher house prices, etc.

growth definitely comes with problems, it definitely doesn’t guarantee tangible benefits for all.

With our lousy productivity record, I’m afraid it does ahw

oh come one. lack of investment and a failure to automate is well recognised as a contributor to our lack of productivity. well, that and STW. 😉
how do you increase productivity? well i guess if we’re taking about manufacturing, you automate. in my industry a large local customer did just that with our help. then exported the lot to china. 😕

No-one actually knows if A50 can be revoked. There’s a court case pending (in Ireland, will go to euporean court). Tories have promised they will not revoke in any case. But of course promises are easily broken, like their promise to stay in the single market.

When was that promise made? By defintion, we lose memberships. We are now negotiating access. Hence as May pointed out, Brexshit really is Brexshit.

True in parts ahw, ultimately productivity determines wages. If you increase wages but reduce productivity you ultimately get fewer people in work but earning more. In laymans terms that means higher inequality. Odd that….unions rarely mention it!!

When was that promise made?

In the Conservative Party manifesto all Tory MPs were elected on.

There are countries operating in the Single Market today that are not full members.
Countries with arguably “less to offer” than the UK.

When was that promise made?

Wow. Just wow.

It should be a full analysis looking at all the costs including housing and health care provision.

Indeed. Oh, that did happen… but NHS logo, lies about burden of immigration on the NHS, and “non-promises” about NHS funding, trumped all talk of migrants propping up the NHS, both staffing and taxation wise.

Do we need to post that Leave NHS video again? Bullshit of the highest order. And it stuck.
In a vote where no one will ever be held accountable by a future vote, bullshit works. It is the winning tactic.