EU Referendum – are you in or out?

May pulling us out of everything, and signing up to nothing, is the other extreme.

It’s the way it’s heading, isn’t it. For all Jamba et all’s fictional protestations that this is what we all knew and wanted all along, one of two things will happen.

1) We’ll pull out of Freedom of Movement, the EEA, the EFTA, the WWF, the WTF and all the other acronyms I can’t even begin to keep track of, and will be left with the square root of geoff all as no-one will want to “cut a deal” with us without those things in place. Which might actually be the best outcome, because when we’re left holding our ball with no-one to play with, we might actually realise what a monumentally hopeless corner we’ve painted ourselves into and overturn our decision to leave.

2) We won’t do any of that, in which case we’re left with all the restrictions people are bleating on about, with none of the benefits as we’re out of the EU.

Remind me again how any of this omnishambles leaves us “better off”?

You missed the NFL. We won’t be in that either. Or the NBA.

Oh, and we can probably add the EHIC to that list. Good luck if you can still afford to go on holiday and manage to hurt yourself.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-brexit-medical-treatment-ehic-health-select-committee-labour-a7544396.html

Interesting. Between the EU and EFTA countries or between the EU and EFTA?
Well it appears a) the individuals signed it and b) EU membership doesn’t automatically get you in – well not immediately.

The individual countries definitely sign it, but as a member of one grouping of the other, The whole mechanism of the treaty seems to have operational provisions between those groupings. As a result, if you are a signatory but no longer a member of your intial grouping you seem to be left in limbo so you would appear not to be able to access its provisions. There is provision for countries to move from EEA to EU, but not vice versa.

Have you lost your mind, we’re talking about a future where there could be no one (group) capable of standing up to the US. They’d be able to pick us off one by one, and the UK would end up as nothing other than a patsy nation to it.

I made the point earlier that a economically and politically strong Europe is needed for exactly this reason (with the UK as part of it).

Not sure if this has been mentioned. One of the brexitters “alternative facts” on the impact of migration on wages has been exposed as (willful?) misrepresentation of the findings.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/impact-of-immigration-on-native-wages-infinitesimally-small-a7545196.html

Maybe the purpose of brexit is to curtail all those consumer and employee rights that the EU has been working on.

In which case either of Cougar’s outcomes are a success.

The whole mechanism of the treaty seems to have operational provisions between those groupings.

Not all the EFTA counties are signed up to the EEA, so I’m not sure that it is that simple.
And not all EEA members are signed up to all the single market structures, for all sectors.
There is room for bespoke deals. We won’t get one with May’s red lines though.

There is provision for countries to move from EEA to EU, but not vice versa.

Correct. It has never happened. We’re in new territory. So we’d need all countries involved to agree.
This won’t happen with May’s red lines.

Kelvin I have no need to argue about the EEA, I prefer to simply check the facts. You are incorrect however much you protest

Feel free to refrain from arguing in order to understand EFTA, the EEA, how to become a Member (not straightforward) and whether this means that you are a member of the SM in reality, in folklore or not at all. (Clue: I have given you the answer already)

I posted a very good link explaining this about 20 or so pages back

Jambas I think your new friend forgot how salmons was promising to wing it/ lie to the Scottish people before about LoLR etc. !!!!

As long you agree the referendum did not state our future relationship in, or with, the Single Market.

Our limits there are being set by May’s own personal red lines, not the public vote.

Brexit Silver Linings: No more Rowan Sorrell built trails…

TJ agreed an iS should setup those things it’s just AS said all along he could get by without them, somehow.

Edukator the euro is broken, the contagion from Greece onto Italy etc is not fixable imho. The numbers are just too big. To compare Greece would be the largest sovereign default ever much bigger than Aregntina, quite an achievement fot a country of 11m people. Europe has used protectionism and expansion to try and preserve it’s dated Labour laws and to prop up a lifestyle the economies don’t justify (UK guilty of this too btw). France is going to have a hell of a shock under Fillon (assuming he wins) and he tries to modernise the country / economy. Strikes etc are going to go to another level with his assault on the huge bloated French state machine.

Did we do this?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/impact-of-immigration-on-native-wages-infinitesimally-small-a7545196.html

Kelvin

Nothing for me to accept. You still seem to. E missing the idea of a negotiation. Plus what the EU is.

Mefty and I have tried to help but enough I am going to watch la la land now

You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?

See above. Made it 100% clear

You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?

You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.

Don’t fall out boys. Ultimately our opinions don’t matter. The pressure we can put on our MPs does.

Go tell them what you want. Be clear that you want The 4 freedoms. Make them believe they will be looking for a new job in 3 years if they don’t act in the interests of their constituents and kill off the extreme Brexit proposed by folk who treat being anti-EU as their religion.

And in the meantime stand up to those religious fanatics of Brexit.

You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.

She hasn’t missed it, it’s just not compatible with her personal red lines on FoM and courts.

Europe has used protectionism and expansion to try and preserve it’s dated Labour laws

Bloody European labour laws, giving us paid leave, a right to work only a reasonable number of hours and return home from work safely. I so wish I could work 120 hours a week for two quid, and if I lost my arm in an accident that I’d have to pay my employer compensation.

jambalaya – Member

Edukator the euro is broken, the contagion from Greece onto Italy etc is not fixable

I think this may turn out to be cobblers.

The world has known about the awful state of Greek finances for years now. Yet the Euro hasn’t imploded. We were absolutely promised by the likes of the Telegraph this would happen 2 years ago now, and it still hasn’t materialized).

And people are still lending money to the Greek government at rates that the likes of Dennis Healey or Nigel Lawson would have given their right arm to get.

So no, I still don’t buy this. It may all just be fine in the end, despite the best efforts of certain interested parties to convince us otherwise.

Jamba – have you notice Salmond is not leading the SNP anymore and do you not think they have learned the lessons?

On the Euro Jamba – how many years ago was it you first started saying the euro is dead, Greece would default and that Germany would want out? Its still not happening

The world has known about the awful state of Greek finances for years now. Yet the Euro hasn’t imploded. We were absolutely promised by the likes of the Telegraph this would happen 2 years ago now, and it still hasn’t materialized).

I think Greece should look at bankruptcy and wipe out its debt. It’s the interest it’s paying that is prolonging their crisis. Wipe the debt and the Euro and EU can move forward, but it’s probably bankers that are maintaining the pressure to break the Euro and win some sort of perverted victory. I wonder whether banks would be able to charge more for currency transactions than the current position with the Euro.
Whadayathink Jamba?

captainsasquatch – Member
I think Greece should look at bankruptcy and wipe out its debt.

The question is how many times do you have to do that because their debts will start accumulating again after a few years since they are not producing much.

France is going to have a hell of a shock under Fillon

I’m watching Valls/Hamon on TF1 at the moment. It’s taken Fillon to make me realise I’ll be voting left for the first time in my life (I’ve voted centre and even green in the Europeans but never left). On the basis of tonight Hamon gets my vote and Madame will probably vote Macron.

Let us not forget how this whole sorry mess began, Cameron was scared of losing a few votes to UKIP, so in his nievity promised an advisory referendum.

Safe bet at the time I’m sure, tehe population would never vote to leave? Would it?

hindsight is a wonderful thing, but when you’re PM, ..and now what have we got… May, Davies and Johnson..and what can only be described as a cluster ****.

The level of incompetence and ‘winging it’ has reached stratospheric levels.

Let me think Left side debate (for a party which will be eliminated in the first round in an election I can’t vote in and a lot of which I won’t follow 😳 ) or … L’amour c’est muiex a deux and Top Chef – a bit more of my level 🙂

I am pretty negative on eurozone, others may have a more positive view but they cannt keep kicking the issue into the long grass and interest rates are ultra low and will not stay that way. The debt mountain quickly crushes you as rates rise.

Captain it would be very painful for Greece to default and return to the Drachma but it would give them a way forward. They are hoping to outlast the EU in this game of chicken and get a debt deal where (say) 60% of their debt is written off and they get to stay in the euro. The IMF was trying to push the eurozone into it as was Obama (hence his last minute trip there).

@maty Cameron gave the Scots a Referendum, did the SNP deride him for that ? Even those of us in the rest of the UK respected that is was the Scots right to make their own choice (once in a lifetime 😉 ). Cameron is a democrat, yes of course he thought he’d win, he thought by making it advisory he might wiggle out but in the end he did the right thing and resign.

Captain it would be very painful for Greece to default and return to the Drachma but it would give them a way forward. They are hoping to outlast the EU in this game of chicken and get a debt deal where (say) 60% of their debt is written off and they get to stay in the euro. The IMF was trying to push the eurozone into it as was Obama (hence his last minute trip there).

So you agree that it’s the banks that are preventing Greece from moving forward and that they are trying to discredit the Euro. That if Greece didn’t have to pay crippling interest payment that they would be in a far stringer position now and the Euro, and ultimately the EU would be in a much stronger place.
Nasty bankers, merchant bankers!

The debt has been “nationalised”, EU members and ECB are predominant lenders, private sector lending is very small now.

You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.

She has missed nothing. Unlike many, she is fully aware of the FUNDAMENTAL distinction between “access to” and “membership of” the single market. Many have access to via the four basic frameworks. Only 28 currently have membership of. This will be 27 now that we have voted to give up our membership.

Again unlike many, she is now focused on how to ensure access. She wants a bespoke deal but under terms that cannot be delivered. Hence the negotiations – have I mentioned that already. In the end, we will get a compromise that limits the damage of this lose:lose situation. In the meantime, those who don’t understand what is happening here will continue to tie themselves in knots.

Jambas you are wrong to focus on Greece which is noise now. The key issue is the fundamental flaws at the core of the EZ – the € itself and the fact that the Germans deny their responsibility to recycle the surpluses that this flawed construct delivers in its favour. Your are wasting your breath debating the folly of the € here, since the solidarity towards the EZ workers who have seen 30-40% wage deflation and/or mass unemployment as a direct result of the € is not even skin deep. It is ignored or if we are being polite misunderstood.

could you maybe just patronise us a bit more? Gave us indeed. He agreed to because he had no option same as May will have no option when we want to call another one

Its not the yield on Greek debt that is the issue – the whole debt dynamics cannot work. Its basic maths.

But in itself, Greece is a sideshow except for the poor Greeks themselves who seem to have been abandoned by UK lefties !

cam got a new job today

something about hoping the public have short memories

The level of incompetence and ‘winging it’ has reached stratospheric levels.

On the contrary, despite the three Brexshiteers involvement the progress so far has been remarkable. Michel Barnier and Merkel are broadly on-side. May is getting on with things and the timetable is going to be met. How often do politicians pull such a difficult task off? Hardly ever. Ok they screwed up in the royal prerogative but that is passed now.

From a barely competent Home Sec, old Theresa is surprising on the upside so far – especially since she is doing something that she doesn’t wholeheartedly believe in.

Jamba – have you notice Salmond is not leading the SNP anymore and do you not think they have learned the lessons?

Indeed, even the diehards know they cant win a referendum. Just left to resort to mischief making. Still a good smokescreen for the domestic failures. Rhetoric versus reality.

THM…

1) Being “a part of” or “in” the Single Market (all three forms of it: goods, services and food) is something (I think) we should be aiming for, but is now dead in the water because of May’s red lines.

2) “Membership” of the Single Market is a red herring. I (hope) I haven’t slipped into saying that we’re likely to get that outside the EU. It is not the same as being ‘in” it.

3) “Access to” used to mean something akin to 1, but has been delibrately rescoped to mean “trade with in any form” by the eurosceptics for their own ends, they have been saying that USA has “access to” the Single Market since the referendum, to set out sights low.

Note: I want more than “the Norway model”, because I don’t want our farmers hung out to dry, no matter what individual farmers might have voted for. We can’t even achieve this though, with May’s personal red lines blocking any such deal.

I repeat…

You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?

Captain as Medty says the banks are not involved. The EU forc d them to take a big loss and took on the debt themselves. IMO they did this to stop the banks forcing Greece into bankruptcy. The private sector is not interested in lending to Greece, only a politician motivated by survival and using taxpayers money would be daft enough.

TJ Cameron is a democrat so he gave the Scots a Referendum. May will do no such thing, zero chance. Not least as there is absolutely no need. The matter was finally settled in 2014.

Greece will be the catalyst imo tmh.