BruceWee
Full Member

I think you’ll find a lot of people have been thinking about this for months (or years) and I would be very surprised if several candidates aren’t already set up to run in a shortened Primary.

Oh sure, but that’s not even half the job. They need to be people who are already names, who have pulling power and good voter recognition, even in the normal run of affairs.

Bernie would destroy Trump, but the democrats central office would rather see a second Trump term than an actual progressive president.

Oh sure, but that’s not even half the job. They need to be people who are already names, who have pulling power and good voter recognition, even in the normal run of affairs.

That’s why I reckon if it’s going to be anyone it’s going to be Gavin Newsom.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-28/gavin-newsom-is-a-top-democrat-to-replace-joe-biden

Bernie would destroy Trump, but the democrats central office would rather see a second Trump term than an actual progressive president.

He’s even older than Biden!

Yeah, but he is much sharper than both of them, and he would at least offer voters some hope, instead of Bidens no hope and Trump’s false hope.

He’s even older than Biden!

But a lot more lucid & would run rings around Trump

Anyway they need someone younger and they need them asap

Trump is not much more cogent than Biden but far more dangerous

There is no way Biden will stand now. Today I put £50 on Gavin Newsom to win. Could be a nice earner.

But a lot more lucid & would run rings around Trump

Would he though, he is great at being on the peripheral and throwing grenades at the other two, but you stick him into a full on campaign where he’s a primary and age will catch up with him soon, he’ll also not be able to promise what he does as a no hoper campaigner.

The Democrats are stuck with Biden, sounds like he’s doubling down as well, reality is you’d have to replace Kamala as well, so both having to be talked into stepping down and two people having to get up to speed and gain popularity in next to no time!

The Democrats are stuck with Biden, sounds like he’s doubling down as well, reality is you’d have to replace Kamala as well, so both having to be talked into stepping down and two people having to get up to speed and gain popularity in next to no time!

None of that matters.

Biden is finished.  It’s done.  There is no coming back from this.

I hate Anthony Scaramucci but this is worth a watch.

Would he though, he is great at being on the peripheral and throwing grenades at the other two, but you stick him into a full on campaign where he’s a primary and age will catch up with him soon,

vs Biden or Trump? Both of whom are showing serious signs of decline ,with Trump only appearing better since he started earlier, I cant say I would rule him out.

I would have doubts about him managing to complete a term in office (same as I had with Biden although he seems to have just scraped through) since it seems to be the equivalent of cat/dog years with the leader living seven years compared to any of us mere humans.

If you look at election photos of Obama or Blair and then them immediately after leaving office and then now you have this weird jump and then freeze in years.

Trump does seem somewhat immune from that but I think that is in part due to the fact he started far more along the line and mostly due to its only aging if you take the job seriously.

TBH I have missed the way he says China.

Biden’s done. But he’s still doubling down and insisting he’s standing.

Project 2025 incoming.

Hope it comes true that Newsom replaces Biden, if you can withered hand of the nomination. Someone has to stop Trump.

Newsom is the Governor of California. Here is a quote from a recent Spectator article to give a flavour of how Trump might attack him:

“California is, in many places, an apocalyptic horror show. Addicts lurch the streets in LA injecting animal tranquilliser into their open sores. Politicians brag in public about defunding the police while frantically funding their own private security. Californians are leaving in a steady stream. Around 700,000 more people left than arrived in the two years to summer 2022. Way to go, Newsom. It’s astonishing that anyone who’s presided over this mess could be a feasible candidate for president, yet here we are.”

I keep hearing this “anyone but Biden would beat Trump” but I fear it’s just wishful thinking. When Clinton lost it was because she was an awful candidate any anybody else would have beaten Trump. Now it looks as though Biden is heading for defeat people are saying that anybody but him would win. But I doubt it. Sanders is old and a socialist. Does anyone really think mainstream America will vote for that. No, anyone but Bernie would win. Pete Buttigieg is gay. Ditto; anyone but Pete. And so it goes on.

The left (on both sides of the Atlantic) basically thinks their opponent is terrible, corrupt, evil etc. So they think that any decent person should be able to beat them easily. They can’t understand why anyone would vote for them and that’s why they can’t beat them.

Yes, Biden has some major weaknesses that were cruelly exposed in the recent debate, but don’t kid yourself that somebody new is suddenly going to walk all over Trump.

And some of you honestly thought Trump would be going to prison.

That Spectator article.

The left (on both sides of the Atlantic) basically thinks their opponent is terrible, corrupt, evil etc. So they think that any decent person should be able to beat them easily. They can’t understand why anyone would vote for them and that’s why they can’t beat them.

Bearing in mind that the Spectator no doubt think Labour is practically communist you have to raise an eyebrow at the comment about the left not being able to beat a, “terrible, corrupt, evil opponent.” Lol

And some of you honestly thought Trump would be going to prison.

Citation needed.

Bearing in mind that the Spectator no doubt think Labour is practically communist you have to raise an eyebrow at the comment about the left not being able to beat a, “terrible, corrupt, evil opponent.” Lol

But they are not even trying to beat them. They are just hoping they beat themselves. I take your point and it’s a fair one but I fear that if the tories had a charismatic leader they would probably still win.

Citation needed.

Start at around page 380 or so on this thread and work your way back to here.

Why are we surprised Biden was a disaster in the debate. Earlier thisyear a prosecutor declined to charge him with with holding classified documents partly because he was an elderly man with a poor memory. Not fit enough to go to court but OK to be leader of the USA for the next 4 years?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-receives-report-bidens-handling-classified-documents-source-2024-02-08/

“

Surely someone like Obama sits down with Biden and spells it out for him. A credible excuse can be magicked up for him standing down. If he persists, it’s a shoe in for Trump. An alternative candidate has to have a better chance

As an American you must be feeling today how a lot of felt in the UK in December 2019… are you ****ing serious? I have to choose between one of these pair of clowns?

It’s an advert for euthanasia.

I think we’ll see Trump win the white house. And the Dems take a Senate and house majority. The (albeit limited number) of people I’ve spoken to since the debate are in the ‘anyone but these two’ camp. So protest voting the president, but supporting the Dems in Congress lame ducks Trump.

Genuine question for anyone thinking Bernie would be Trump in an election. Why? And I dont mean provide me with a list if things “you” like about Bernie and stating what “you” think the US needs. I mean why would the US electorate, with their very different political mindset choose him.

There’s absolutely nothing I’ve read or watched that indicates the US is that way inclined?

The main reason I think Bernie could win is that the “blue collar” Trump supporters would switch to Bernie. In 2019 there was a few interviewers who went to some of Trumps campaign rallies and spoke to the crowd, without leading questions or trying to just take the piss but just asking basic questions about what they want and believe could change. And it was quite clear that they liked Bernies policies.

The thing is the GOP actually understand the problems that people have, they are just corrupting and twisting them to their own advantage, but the rhetoric at least addresses their problems. The Democrats just don’t seam to want to acknowledge the problems, they think if they can just obfuscate and ignore the issues (Bidens ability to rule being just another example).

It won’t happen, again in 2019 while the Democrats were bemoaning the GOPS efforts in disenfranchising voters, they were doing exactly the same in disenfranchising Bernie supporters in the primaries.

Biden is dead in the water, they would probably be better being honest and stating that he is only a figure head and really central office are running the show.

I think over here in the UK we have to face facts – Obama was the outlier as a successful candidate we could actually imagine voting for and being popular here. Americans are not us with a shitty accent. They are genuinely different, with different priorities and a different moral compass. Personally I’ve come to loath them as a collective. If it wasn’t for the impact of US politics on the future of the globe (and that’s diminishing pretty quickly) I’d happily ignore them, leaving them to squat in their own filth.

And it was quite clear that they liked Bernies policies.

In my view, this is a very poor indicator of how people will actually vote (unfortunately).

I think over here in the UK we have to face the facts, our political landscape is far more similar to the US than it is different, we both have 2 major parties that are right of centre and moving further right, the GOP and the tories are completely batshit mental, and the dems and labour have stopped challenging the right wing framework and have just become what the parties they have meant to oppose stood for 20 to 30 years ago.

The main reason I think Bernie could win is that the “blue collar” Trump supporters would switch to Bernie.

I’m really not sure about this. A while back I was listening to some thing from a blue-collar Marco Rubio rally and they were all talking about the American Dream. I don’t think the idea that the state should provide a safety net is on the majority of blue-collar Americans’ radar.

Opinion polls in the past have placed Sanders as the best Democrat candidate to beat Trump.

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-trump-poll-election-2020-biden-bloomberg-1483423

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3617170-sanders-has-highest-favorability-among-possible-2024-contenders-poll/

I don’t know about recent polls but I have little doubt that Sanders will still not be acceptable to the Democrat establishment.

I don’t know about recent polls but I have little doubt that Sanders will still not be acceptable to the Democrat establishment.

There comes a point where the “establishment” has to accept a couple of simple facts. They don’t have the luxury of time and you have to be voted for to win.

It doesn’t matter how acceptable you are to the grandees if you can’t fulfill those criteria.

In theory people are voting for their state representatives and senators, not their President. The two are so intertwined for voters as to be indistinguishable but a strong Congress can be extremely influential through guidance to the President

The other thing that the “establishment” has to consider is who decided the tactics that put them in this position. A televised debate with someone who bombasts, blusters and doesn’t have to recall facts because he doesn’t use facts would be my last choice

Saunders is basically considered the same as Karl Marx in the US.

He would never win a presidential election.

Opinion polls in the past have placed Sanders as the best Democrat candidate to beat Trump.

No doubt there were some polls that said Corbyn would beat Johnson, but there’s a difference between ‘correct’ and ‘electable’

Since the debate Biden has gone up in some polls … any ideas?

Said it earier, Sanders is older than Biden, you put him in a full presidential campaign and he’d be looking his age in no time at all, the third wheel nominee’s tend to be able to take it a lot easier and can promise the world and play the others off against each other, it’s why over here you get the greens or reform getting the cheers in televised debates, dependent on audience of course, as they can just play the crowd.

Anyway, i don’t see Biden and Kamala stepping down, the only thing that would stop Trump getting elected is if he has some major medical issue or meltdown, other than that, we’ll be welcoming President Trump again.

“. the only thing that would stop Trump getting elected is if he has some major medical issue or meltdown, other than that, we’ll be welcoming President Trump again.”

No, he’ll be beaten by a bigger margin than last time. Bidens poor showing in the debate will be forgotten in a week, those who are undecided (HTF can you be undecided?) will not remember it come November. Thee is still another head to head debate in September, Biden needs to sort himself out for that, if he does OK in that, he’ll have the election, as Trump does not appeal to new voters, he has some support, it is they who will be the only ones to vote for him.

Biden won’t do better in any future debates, that is who he is now, an old man not quite in tune with what is going on around him.

The republicans knew before the debate, which is why Trump was prepared to just let Biden speak instead of constantly interrupting him, which we all know shutting up is not Trump does instinctively.

Biden needs to be replaced now, it is idiotic arrogance by the democrats party machine to believe he can continue on and win.

All the gains made and the damage done to Trump with the court cases has been washed away in 1 night, I think the only way to overcome it, to make it look like it was just a bad night, was for Biden to come out campaigning quickly with an articulate and passionate speech or two. That hasn’t happened because he just doesn’t have the capability.

Post debate Ipsos 538 polling here

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-ipsos-june-2024-presidential-debate-poll

Relevant to the current chatter here

Despite the poor ratings of Biden’s performance, few respondents are no longer considering voting for Biden.Among respondents who completed both the pre- and post-debate survey, just 4% are giving less consideration to voting for Biden. In comparison, 2% are giving less consideration to voting for Trump following the debate.
As a whole, in the pre-debate wave, 44% of respondents reported that they were considering voting for Biden. This was unchanged in the post-debate wave, where 46% said the same of Biden.
The percent of respondents considering voting for Trump (44% pre-debate, 44% post-debate) and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (18% pre-debate, 18% post-debate) was also unchanged.

538 article https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/

The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate. (Note that this was not a straight horse-race poll; respondents could say they were considering voting for multiple candidates.)

Trump’s support, meanwhile, barely budged, perhaps a reflection of the fact that, while Biden performed poorly on Thursday night, voters weren’t especially impressed with Trump’s performance either. The share of likely voters who said they were considering voting for Trump after the debate climbed from 43.5 percent to just 43.9 percent.

why Trump was prepared to just let Biden speak

Not because they switched his mic off when it wasn’t his turn to speak then?

No doubt there were some polls that said Corbyn would beat Johnson

I doubt that.

And I think most polls showed that Sanders was the best placed Democrat to beat Trump, it wasn’t just the odd outlier.