Brexit 2020+

If the EU is only a union why can we not leave on agreeable terms?

Ah, the old “I don’t understand why we can’t just leave” argument. The previous brexit thread ran to over 2000 pages and this is what I like to call a “page 2 argument.” Its partner in crime is “we were alright before we joined” (spoiler: we weren’t).

We have spent the last 40-odd years offloading administration onto the EU so that we don’t have to bother with it any more. This makes sense; if you’re a supermarket chain with 28 stores it would be madness to have 28 finance departments, 28 HR departments, 28 purchasing departments. You centralise it.

All the old trade agreements we used to have with other countries have long since expired, replaced with ones negotiated through the EU because – shock horror – they’re better. Who’d have thought that a conglomerate of 28 countries carried more negotiating power than a rainy little island with an over-inflated sense of self-importance.

And it’s not just about trade. There are many things that we are able to do because of our EU membership. We can fly planes over other countries because of a thing called the Open Skies agreement, which we’re signed up to via the EU. No Open Skies agreement, you’re walking to France.

When we leave we lose all this. And contrary to populist belief we don’t go back to how we were before, we come away with nothing. Aside from an exciting new trade deal with Mozambique. All these treaties will have to be renegotiated. And that will take decades.

Now, I’m not for a moment suggesting that come next year all our planes will be grounded, even we couldn’t be that stupid. But unless some sort of agreement is reached then that’s the default outcome, your “status quo” if you like.

This is why “no deal” is a fallacy; it’s not “a deal,” it’s many many many agreements in many many different areas. Anyone saying they want “no deal” is telling you they don’t want planes to fly, otherwise what they’re actually saying is “no deal apart from the bits we want a deal on, obviously.”

A club with which we cannot now negotiate an agreeable relationship without facing financial ruin. Speaks volumes to me about the future direction of the EU as a federal state.

You’re still not getting it. This isn’t something the EU has done to us, we are where we are today by choice because up until the last decade or so adults were in charge. We are tightly integrated (for mutual benefit) and you cannot just blindly sever that integration without consequences.

It’s like needing an operation, being told that you’ll have to wait for availability of beds, surgeons, nurses, anaesthesiologists, and you’re standing in the GP’s office with a rusty Stanley knife screaming “I don’t understand why you can’t just cut it out!”

You folk still haven’t explained why an ever expanding and more deeply integrated EU state is such a good idea?

How many European wars have you seen recently?

What happens when we eventually have to give up control of our banking and currency?

What happens when the aliens land and turn us all into gremlins?

Aside from the fact that this is just a slippery slope fallacy, as a member state we had the power to say no and veto things we didn’t like. Remember back when we joined the Euro? Me neither. All this “laws coming from Brussels” horseshit is manipulative propaganda, it conveniently ignores that we were 1/10th of the EU and we were instrumental in making those laws.

Of course, now you and your ilk have dragged us out that’s no longer the case and the EU27 is free to do what the hell it wants without out interference stopping it. I don’t know about you but I find that a much scarier proposition. I thought leavers were convinced the EU was planning a huge army? If they are (spoiler: they aren’t) then they’re right on our doorstep and we can’t do anything to stop them now can we. You’ve thought about this, haven’t you lads.

You are being lied to.

Yes. I agree that calling people ‘idiots’ doesn’t get anywhere.

I struggle with this. I can not help but see a correlation between brexiteers and simple-minded bigots. Hilary Clinton famously referred to Trump supporters as deplorables and that was quite damaging to her. I see why she said it about the Trump base and I see the same with leavers. That view might be damaging for a politician but i’m not running for office and this is an anonymous on-line forum. The truth is that I think leavers are thick and i’m sure i’m not alone. Its just something that brexiteers will have to get used to – especially when it descends into a giant shit show over the next 12 months.

Here’s an enlightening David Lammy speech

I’d don’t think they’re thick, I think some of them are arseholes, some of them are racists but the majority of them have been duped and sold a pack of lies, and the ones who’ve since realised this are too embarassed to admit it.

Trying to claim that Brexit is an existential threat to our NHS when we’ve watched the creeping privatisation for years (during EU membership) doesn’t make sense to me.

Even granting you the (slight) strawman*, your claim of ‘nonsense’ seems to rest on a few assumptions:

1. There was no pre-Referendum objection/concern to ‘creeping privatisation’ of the NHS
2. Brexit is a similar ‘creeping’ timeline with identical barriers/protections in place both before and after departure from the EU
3. The ‘NHS Bus’ of the Leave Campaign was as transparent as our trust in this ‘Brexit Government’ to whom we’re trusting our future.
4. They promised to ‘keep the NHS off the table‘. They’re are seeming to be doing the opposite but we should trust them.

* I did suggest a page or so back that the NHS deserves a separate thread. But I won’t pretend at all that the NHS hasn’t been used as a football by both ‘sides’. (Argh, what happened to us) in the Brexit campaign and subsequent dialogue. I’m still more concerned what is happening/likely to happen to our healthcare because of Brexit. Far more concerned than I am about the possibility of Bulgaria joining the EU. But you seem to see acting upon the latter by hard-severing our EU membership and sailing off with no plan except ‘trust Johnson’ as somehow less ‘hysterical’ than worrying about the ramifications of a post-Brexit golf-sale. Why is that?

Just listened to Barnier (again) and I am even more convinced of two things:

1. Johnson is pursuing No Deal as an active strategy.
2. The EU just want us to piss off if we don’t grow up.

What a shitshow.

I work in a Pharma company which exports to the US and EU markets, we already abide by all necessary regs for both markets, so what changes apart from having an office in an EU state? Which we already have.

How do you certify that your products are safe and legitimate to sell?

The concensus here is that the UK gov. is capable of a deep conspiracy against the population, but of course the EU bloc is incapable of that as it is a shining utopia.

This is (another) leave lie intended to make remainers look bad.

I would hazard that there are few if any posting on here on either side of the argument that believe the EU is perfect. It’s widely accepted that changes need to happen, only you’ve robbed us of our ability to to anything about it.

And in any case, even if the EU was the devil incarnate that you seem to think it is, just leaving without checks and balances in place to replace what we’re giving up is a Really Bad Idea. Doubly so when we were in a recession to start with and exponentially so in the middle of a goddamn global pandemic.

I mean, does that not ring alarm bells in your head even? Most leavers I’ve spoken with now begrudgingly admit that there will be “short term” pain (short term being about 20 years by my best guess but let’s not mind that just now). We’re still flag-waving our way towards the cliff edge with no whiff of a suggestion of postponing it when a month ago I almost had to resort to wiping my arse on the cat? Even if you think leaving is a good idea, do you think leaving at this moment in time is a good idea? Why aren’t they knocking it back?

I would hazard that there are few if any posting on here on either side of the argument that believe the EU is perfect. It’s widely accepted that changes need to happen, only you’ve robbed us of our ability to to anything about it.

Exactly this. Reminds me that I recently lost touch with my Most Brexity Chum (in real life) to extremism. After last GE (and on Xmas Day) he began ranting at his family, future in-laws, friends etc that ‘anyone who didn’t vote Brexit should leave this this **** Country because you Remainers don’t care what happens to your own **** Country’

The episode reminded me sharply that although I could see and understand his reasons and care for leaving the EU (Won’t repeat them here, they wouldn’t pass the swear filter anyway) he could not find it in himself to imagine that certain among his friends and family also cared deeply about this country and for that reason didn’t trust that Brexit or Johnson was at such a time ‘Best for Britain’.

The horrible irony is that now I DO want very much to leave Britain in light of what is happening. But my Brexit chum has burned the very same bridge that he wants to kick me across.

Thats the crux of it for me, I only see the EU progressing towards a federal state, one made up of many incompatible countries, this was a chance to step out.

Cougar – I agree we should be stalling due to Covid.

I dont think the EU is devil incarnate, but why get deeper into it only to have to leave at an even more entangled stage?

I agree on your point about the increasing federaliation of the EU – one of my reasons for voting remain was that a strong, skeptical UK within the EU (and with a veto) could prevent that.

Now it will happen on our doorstep whether we like it or not.

one made up of many incompatible countries, this was a chance to step out

Well, if the result of what is being done, thanks to your vote, is more people seeing the UK in the same way, and the eventual splitting up of our union, you’d better be preparing for that outcome over there.

I would hazard that there are few if any posting on here on either side of the argument that believe the EU is perfect. It’s widely accepted that changes need to happen, only you’ve robbed us of our ability to to anything about it.

And in any case, even if the EU was the devil incarnate that you seem to think it is, just leaving without checks and balances in place to replace what we’re giving up is a Really Bad Idea. Doubly so when we were in a recession to start with and exponentially so in the middle of a goddamn global pandemic.

I mean, does that not ring alarm bells in your head even? Most leavers I’ve spoken with now begrudgingly admit that there will be “short term” pain (short term being about 20 years by my best guess but let’s not mind that just now). We’re still flag-waving our way towards the cliff edge with no whiff of a suggestion of postponing it when a month ago I almost had to resort to wiping my arse on the cat? Even if you think leaving is a good idea, do you think leaving at this moment in time is a good idea? Why aren’t they knocking it back?

This ^^^^^.

I agree on your point about the increasing federaliation of the EU – one of my reasons for voting remain was that a strong, skeptical UK within the EU (and with a veto) could prevent that.

Quite.

A lot of the leave narrative, especially from Leave.EU, was along the lines of “the EU is planning [whatever], we’re better off out!” Even if it wasn’t all a pack of lies, to my mind these would all have been compelling reasons to stay in, so we could prevent [whatever] from happening.

But of course, it was presented as “problem ➡ solution” so that’s what people did, in droves. Aside from critical thinking failure,* I expect many voters at the time didn’t know that we had that sort of power.

(* I don’t mean this pejoratively, it’s simply a skill not everyone is very good at)

@Malvern Rider. You make some good points and I’m not really arguing with any of them (except that Bulgaria is already part of the EU). I’m certainly not claiming to trust anybody. Least of all our current UK government (who I didn’t vote for either). Just privatisation of the NHS isn’t a binary thing (better to call it involvement of the private sector in the NHS) and happened while we were members of the EU anyway. I agree that a trade deal with the USA presents another threat (if you think increased involvement by the private sector is a bad thing of course) but it is up to our elected representatives to deal with that risk and up to us to hold them to account if they make a mess of it.

I don’t mind the argument that Brexit “may” lead to more private sector involvement in the NHS. I just don’t like the simplistic “they’re going to sell our NHS to the Americans” argument. As if successive governments hadn’t already encouraged private sector involvement.

As a species we’ve always sought simple answers to complicated questions.

The irony that I’ve just typed that on a brexit thread is not lost on me.

Just listened to Barnier (again) and I am even more convinced of two things:

1. Johnson is pursuing No Deal as an active strategy.
2. The EU just want us to piss off if we don’t grow up.

What a shitshow.

Johnson does seem to be lining up no deal. But what I don’t get is how does he play that out? It will be an immediate disaster as opposed to a slow death by a thousand cuts that we would get in a deal. I don’t think he would last 6 months if we go down that route as there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it. Still not 100% convinced that he wont do a deal at the last minute and use the fact that we didn’t ‘no deal’ as a positive i.e. you need to like this shit deal as its better than no deal. The ERG will lose their shit so does he just hard ball them? Is that worse than the moderates who would lose their shit if we no deal? We have no idea how the numbers break down in the tory party over this issue….I guess we will find out.

As for the EU – they are playing the long game, maximum avoidance of blame. They know how brexiteers operate.

I don’t think he would last 6 months if we go down that route as there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it.

Reverse what exactly?

I was involved in the development, negotiation and implemtation of Government contracts for 20+ years – if I had any confidence in the Civil Service’s ability to do their job effectively, getting commercial contractors involved in the NHS could be a good thing. However, based on experience it will probably turn out bad – little understanding of their cost base, appalling ability to even know what it is they want, to specify it clearly and then stick to it and then to create a contract that does all that effectively. Add on top the bureaucracy, arcane treasury rules and the “long-screw-drivering” by officials pandering to politicians and inevitably you have a recipe for disaster.

one of my reasons for voting remain was that a strong, skeptical UK within the EU (and with a veto) could prevent that.

Unfortunately Cameron wanted to park us firmly within the EU which got a lot of sceptics like myself annoyed. Also that strong veto didn’t halt the expansion of the EU now did it (we didn’t use it)? We now have the great contributors, bulgaria and romania as cheap labour.

@roverpig

I meant to say Turkey! Thanks.

I agree that simplistic slogans have damaged the dialogue and can be misleadng. From the beginning (ie pretty much the entire Leave Campaign, IIRC?)

Saying that, it’s also pretty difficult to convey Immediately Pressing Concerns in short form without jumping to the ‘Feared Ultimate Conclusion If We Take This Course’

The catchy slogans ‘Save the NHS before it exists in name only/has it’s assets sold to foreign interests/ becomes illegal/too expensive to save’ don’t really equate with your and Dougie’s more ‘sensible’ conflation of ‘get out of the EU before

The way I see it is that organs, assets and data of the NHS is simply part of the post-Brexit guaranteed golf sale. General privatisation is probably saved best for another thread. It does right now all go hand-in-hand with what is hapoened right now and time is short.

Brexit does have a number of immediate effects on our NHS.

Three important ones:

1. Staffing
Currently, the NHS is understaffed by more than 100,000 positions. This figure reflects posts from across the multidisciplinary team – nurses, doctors, physiotherapists, dieticians, technicians, administrative staff, managers and carers – to name but a few. With vacancies available for these positions, international recruitment is key and changes in immigration policies following Brexit may mean these positions remain unfilled.
Not only does this take opportunities away from aspiring professionals, but those who remain must manage the burden of a second or even third role. Burnout will be on the rise and in an already time-constrained environment, so will human error. This poses a massive risk to the patient’s quality of care and therefore additionally, their safety.
Did you know that 62,000 of England’s NHS workforce are EU nationals?

2. Accessing Treatment Internationally
Currently UK citizens have access to treatment within the EU and vice versa for EU citizens. European Health Insurance cards (EHIC) allow for this with over 27 million currently in possession of a card.
Without this insurance, the cost would fall down to the individual and the need for private insurance could be mandatory. As with many other concepts of Brexit, it remains uncertain as to whether current UK/EU citizens would be charged for services.

3. Funding

Given the Prime Minister’s proposition to contribute over £1 billion to the NHS and the requirement for GP rationing of specialist referrals, it comes as no surprise that the NHS is already under great financial burden. The UK’s future trading relationships are unclear and ultimately contribute to the UK’s economic status.
In line with this logic, it is uncertain as to how leaving the European Union will affect the NHS. If our economy takes a hit, the government may be forced to cut public service spending meaning more hospital specialities closing and removing out of hours services.
Secondary effects are huge; waiting times are increasing due to shortage of staff and the quality of personalised care may be impacted in an attempt to maintain what remains of a squeezed and highly pressured health system.

I ask you as an agnostic (‘nothing can be known‘) and Dougie as a Brexiter (act now, assess later) what assurances do we have that Britain’s healthcare will be better now we left the EU? And by that I mean Funding, staffing and accessing treatment internationally?

Johnson does seem to be lining up no deal. But what I don’t get is how does he play that out?

I’m fully expecting a resignation and a Christmas GE.

I said this way back on The Other Thread. There is one thing and only one thing that Boris cares about, and that is Boris. There is no way that man will go down with the ship, I’ve more chance of growing a second willy. If we do indeed end up crashing out, by that point Boris will have deployed an SEP field and will be somewhere sunny with his pal Callmedave cracking open their third bottle of Bolly.

I can’t remember who this quote is attributable to but, “Boris is the sort of man who will wait to see which way everyone is running, then jump in front of them shouting ‘follow me!'”

there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it.

No there wouldn’t. There would be mass denial that the problem had anything to do with brexit, and that they knew there’d be a short term hit and it was a price worth paying. Then it would be the EU’s fault for punishing is, and then they’d blame it all on remainers for sabotaging it.

Haven’t you seen how this works yet? They’re never wrong, and it’s never their fault.

Also that strong veto didn’t halt the expansion of the EU now did it?

Okay, I’m sorry… but you’re being wilfully ignorant now.

Sorry why? Is there doubt that the EU has continued to expand? Have we voted against this expansion?

Why would we vote against something we instigated?

Also that strong veto didn’t halt the expansion of the EU now did it? We now have the great contributors, bulgaria and romania as cheap labour.

Vetos only work if we choose to use them. One would assume that we chose not to in this case.

You’re still labouring under this “us and them” concept. One tenth of the EU Parliament was made up of UK MEPs. All these decisions you’re pulling your face about, the ones that aren’t fictional at any rate, WE voted in favour of. We very rarely lose votes, it’s something like 50 out of thousands.

And in any case, so what? Why do you even care? Did it greatly affect your life? Did you wake up one morning and find your wages had dropped 30% because a couple of tiny countries 2,000 miles away had been accepted into the EU? Christ man, did our membership of the EU affect your life negatively in any way whatsoever?

As reasons go for defending potentially crashing the country’s economy, having a bonfire of standards and human rights laws and making us the laughing stock of the world, “Bulgaria joined our political union 13 years ago” is bullshit of the highest order.

I’m fully expecting a resignation and a Christmas GE.

I said this way back on The Other Thread. There is one thing and only one thing that Boris cares about, and that is Boris. There is no way that man will go down with the ship, I’ve more chance of growing a second willy. If we do indeed end up crashing out, by that point Boris will have deployed an SEP field and will be somewhere sunny with his pal Callmedave cracking open their third bottle of Bolly.

I can’t remember who this quote is attributable to but, “Boris is the sort of man who will wait to see which way everyone is running, then jump in front of them shouting ‘follow me!’”

there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it.

No there wouldn’t. There would be mass denial that the problem had anything to do with brexit, and that they knew there’d be a short term hit and it was a price worth paying. Then it would be the EU’s fault for punishing is, and then they’d blame it all on remainers for sabotaging it.

Haven’t you seen how this works yet? They’re never wrong, and it’s never their fault.

I doubt the tories would want a GE- what could they gain from it? But they will be in a massive hole and they will need a ladder.

As for the last bit – at some point it wont wash. There will be chaos at every major port and no shortage of small and medium sized businesses finding they just can’t get stuff they need or they have to pay tariffs that wipe out margins and it will be pretty hard not to see it for what it is. I genuinely can’t see how Johnson plays that out, even with a deal it will be a shit show. Without one he has zero chance of survival.

And what do the tories do next? They are a single issue party. When that issue turns into a nightmare where can they go?

Ah, here:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/how-often-is-the-uk-outvoted-in-brussels/

Since 1999, when legislative records became available to the public for the first time in an accessible format, the UK has voted “no” to legislation on 57 occasions. It has voted “yes” 2,474 times and abstained from voting 70 times.

(Votes on legislation that isn’t passed is not recorded.)

I doubt the tories would want a GE- what could they gain from it? But they will be in a massive hole and they will need a ladder.

Perhaps a GE is a reach, but a leadership change fo sho. Boris will be hailed as the great man who “got brexit done” and the shitshow that follows, that’ll be some other poor scmuck’s fault. Probably either Gove or Grailing, the former’s had it coming for years and the latter stupid enough to take the fall.

As for the last bit – at some point it wont wash.

You’d think so, wouldn’t you. I’ve been hoping for that to be the case for a few years now, and yet here we are.

When that issue turns into a nightmare where can they go?

Be the party that “gets us through” the “necessary but difficult transition” to a “free and independent country”. This Vote Leave team will try, and I predict succeed, to paint themselves as the “only ones prepared to take the hard decisions required during these times of change”.

You’d think so, wouldn’t you. I’ve been hoping for that to be the case for a few years now, and yet here we are.

The one thing with brexit is that when you give a clear detailed picture of what it could look like i.e. no deal or a soft deal – people hate it. They love the big idea, the detail stinks. So far we have not yet seen the detail in any solid form. In fact it would seem that the government are going to extreme lengths to delay any physical sign of it happening (to the extent we will end up getting sued for failing to implement proper customs controls in 2021).

Brexit is only just beginning.

*edit (sorry)

The catchy slogans ‘Save the NHS before it exists in name only/has it’s assets sold to foreign interests/becomes illegal/too expensive to save’ don’t really equate with your and Dougie’s more ‘sensible’ conflation of ‘get out of the EU come what may before it mutates into a Superstate)

Be the party that “gets us through” the “necessary but difficult transition” to a “free and independent country”. This Vote Leave team will try, and I predict succeed, to paint themselves as the “only ones prepared to take the hard decisions required during these times of change”.

But what if its administrative **** up after **** up on top of job loses and general economic decline. What if people are sick of it after a couple of months. What then? Do they just plough on for 3 years insisting this is what we all voted for and offer nothing different at the next GE?

The most competent politicians would really struggle with this – the current lot are far from competent.

insisting this is what we all voted for and offer nothing different at the next GE?

“only we can finish this… now is not the time for faint hearts… don’t talk the UK down” etc.

Were can the Tories go ? Hopefully oblivion

There is a huge .misunderstanding here. The Tory party as we knew it is no more. It has become a far right group run by people who do not care about the country or the party. All they want is to get out of the EU

@Malvern Rider. I doubt we really disagree on much. I’m mostly posting the counter arguments as I want to hear them aired. And there are always counter arguments of course. Your point on NHS staffing is a good one, but could you not also argue that for too long the NHS has relied on other (often poorer) countries to train its staff? Is it not time that we paid to train enough doctors, nurses, AHPs etc to staff our own NHS? I don’t see a shortage of applicants, mainly a shortage of training places. I’d agree this probably isn’t the thread for that discussion though.

Were can the Tories go ? Hopefully oblivion

There is a huge .misunderstanding here. The Tory party as we knew it is no more. It has become a far right group run by people who do not care about the country or the party. All they want is to get out of the EU

They are an single issue party now. They exist to get brexit done…

Or does ‘get brexit done’ exist to get a certain element of tories in to power?

Either way – how much political capital is being burned in pushing this single issue. It inevitably will be a disaster – what do they do then? The GOP have the same issue with Trump. They have a burn it all down candidate who has been in power now for 4 years and there is nothing left to burn. Where do they go post Trump? Was it wrong to burn it or do we keep looking for things to burn?

uwe-r
Member

The one thing with brexit is that when you give a clear detailed picture of what it could look like i.e. no deal or a soft deal – people hate it. They love the big idea, the detail stinks.

And closely linked to that, that in order to gain enough support to get it through, everything was promised, whether possible or impossible, and regardless of contradictions. So there was never a majority for any real, possible brexit, let alone a majority for whatever actual brexit arrives.

there is nothing left to burn

You’re applying a reasonableness filter here… there is nothing left for a sane administration to burn, if the people in it care about the damage done above the power they want. Now remove that filter… think about what would happen if an unreasonable power hungry sociopath was at the helm, with not a care about the damage done, and willing to burn the unthinkable.

They love the big idea, the detail stinks. 

And yet again, history is here to help.

If the defining lesson of the 20th Century wasn’t “Beware of men who sell big ideas” then I don’t know what was.

And yet here we are. The most interconnected and the having the most ability of any generation to inform ourselves. And we’ve got populist bullshitters and crooks harnessing that connectivity to play people’s own prejudices back to them as ‘fact’ and they are too unaware of what really goes on.

News? Isn’t that just something that pops up in between posts from some pillock acquaintance showing photos of every meal they ever order in a restaurant?

We should be the most politically aware and empowered generation ever. And when Mr Berners-Lee gave us one of the greatest inventions and resources ever, what did we do?

Fill it up with grumble, lies and gossip.

If an alien ever did land on Earth and was unfortunate enough to end up in the UK, I reckon they’d jump back in their spaceship and get the hell out of Dodge.

that for too long the NHS has relied on other (often poorer) countries to train its staff? Is it not time that we paid to train enough doctors, nurses, AHPs etc to staff our own NHS?

We can spend tens of thousands of pounds and several years to train up a doctor or a nurse, or we can import a fully trained one for free tomorrow. Where’s the sense in that beyond the “coming over here and takin are jobs” argument? The NHS is hardly known for having too much spare cash.

A lack of home-grown skills is precisely why we have immigration in the first place. Of course, paying NHS staff properly might make it more attractive as a career choice, but that’s dragging us into a bigger argument.