Brexit 2020+

Finally if we go WTO rules only ie no deal we are not allowed under those rules to treat any nation more favourably than the rest. thus if we allow EU imports in without tariffs we have to allow imports from everywhere without tariffs

This sort of takes a massive dump on your negotiating position in any trade deals,someone's dropped a bollock on this.

Pharma - where was the EUs medicines regulatory body - london - but its gone, we can no longer use it, we now have to make our own regulatory body which will cost us a lot more than 1/28 of the EU body

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

I'm not, all the costs I listed previously, are ones we have to pay regardless
That £13bn in customs costs would not be reduced if we get a deal

I think we'll get a deal, Johnson's one is particularly unambitious and offers only small increases
The same for his USA one (and Truss is rounding her numbers up to get 0.16% over 15 years)
Johnson will sacrifice fisheries to keep Nissan here but...
When Scotland votes to leave, a quick entry in the EU will see Sturgeon trying to woo Nissan 70 miles North & avoid all those extra costs & delays of our new customs regime (applies to Airbus, pharma, etc)
Johnson will have to promise BIG to get them to stay & that is only going to be possible if he can get an agreement on state aid, which is the other major sticking point for an EU deal

we now have to make our own regulatory body which will cost us a lot more than 1/28 of the EU body

Ours will be world beating thou 🙂

Aren’t you listening to anything we’re telling you? We become “other” overnight.

I sincerely hope he isn't because he is being told a load of rubbish.

which bits Mefty?

Awaits detailed rebuttal from mefty.....

In 2018 just under 80% of our non Eu trade was done under WTO terms so the position will be unchanged whatever happens. Likewise just under 80% of our remaining non Eu trade is done with countries who have agreed to roll over deal, which will implemented under the terms of the Trade Bill. We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.

And in your case TJ I have never seen you get anything right, I think you and Binners are performance artists.

So assuming we leave with no deal at the end of the year, how soon afterwards will we start to see the effects on the ground and what will these be?

Food and medicine shortages? Chaos at Dover? Masses of businesses going under and redundancies?

What are people going to notice and when?

We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.

Who said we won't be trading with the ROW?

No one said we couldn't trade. It will be more costly and awkward though.

No one said we couldn’t trade. It will be more costly and awkward though.

Not with over 90% non EU trade it won't, it will be on the same basis.

We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.

But no one said we couldny trade with ROW

The point is that non EU trade will have to rise by a large amount to compensate for extra costs of brexit & governments own figures don't comes close to that yet

Would you like me to fact check your “just under 80%” claim mefty?, 5 mins on google will give you the actual figures and it is nowhere near 80%.

Here you go

Would you like me to fact check your “just under 80%” claim mefty?

knock yourself out.

The point is that non EU trade will have to rise by a large amount to compensate for extra costs of brexit & governments own figures don’t comes close to that yet

The post I quoted from was suggesting without all the EU agreements we would find it very difficult to trade with the rest of the world. This is simply not the case as the numbers I have put up show.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm

for an explanation of WTO terms. NOte carefully the stuff on most favoured nation status. without trade agreements we HAVE to treat everyone equally

Mefty - when 40% of our trade is with the EU (IIRC) how can we be trading 80-% under WTO rules? We also operate under various EU trade deals for much of our non eu trade.

Or very simply put analysis showing just how disadvantageous WTO rules would be
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/wto-rules-explained-trade-tariffs-uk-after-brexit-agreement-391230

Mefty - it will be very difficult - read up on what WTO means. Useful links above

Mefty – when 40% of our trade is with the EU (IIRC) how can we be trading 80-% under WTO rules? We also operate under various EU trade deals for much of our non eu trade.

Even in the autumn of one's like it is not too late to acquire new skills.

Need to bush up on your maths? 120% of trade?

Mefty actually said 80% of our non-eu trade

Which is a way of saying ~40% of our trade

But TJ has a point, under no deal MFN rules means if we do impose tariffs on any EU goods mefty is wrong to say

so the position will be unchanged whatever happens

Nice one somafunk - that shows exactly how much bollox Mefty is spouting

I do love the fact that in meftys world we can have more than 100%

My numbers are all non EU trade so EU trade is not in the denominator.

squaredog - at the simplest level, any goods inc food, which are imported are likely to be more expensive and subject to delay at point of entry.
UK will become (even) less competitive so jobs/companies/business sectors will be under threat.
Financial services sector is major employer and significant economic contributor; as various posts ^^^ have stated, banks and others already have advanced plans to move (parts of) their businesses into European financial centres if/when circumstances dictate.
Job losses are inevitable - and they won't be small scale.
Unless johnson capitulates in some way the impacts will become visible from early 2021 and become progressively worse.
Here's a recent article about how few companies have prepared for no deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/18/no-deal-brexit-poorly-prepared-companies-coronavirus

@mefty - But the numbers you put up have no factual basis. You might as well say 120% of our trade is done on WTO rules.

My numbers are all non EU trade so EU trade is not in the denominator.

apologies - I did misread it

However your numbers are still wrong - clearly so.

And the reason UK has to build Farages Garage & all the extra customs infrastructure away from ports is to prevent the 50% of our trade with the EU causing snarl ups with the non EU half that enters/leaves via the same ports

Mefty actually said 80% of our non-eu trade

Precisely.

However your numbers are still wrong – clearly so.

Nope - you just need to do the arithmetic.

NOpe - yuou need to look at somafunks link

Yeah, it’s only about half our exports facing new hassle, expense and delays… what’s the worry, huh?

yuou need to look at somafunks link

I have

Which shows your numbers are wrong

So in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU. The EU has also negotiated or is in the process of negotiating trade deals with other countries, including Japan and Australia.

and the Wto rules mean that if we have no tarriffs on EU trade we can have no tarrifs with anyone

The numbers are very simple. Approx. 40% of our trade is with countries who do not belong to EU or are covered by an agreement. Approx. 50% is EU trade and therefore taken out. Therefore 40/50 equals 80%. Of the remaining 10%, 8% will be covered by rollover deals. 8/10 equals 80%. Actuals are slightly different and I was using more uptodate 2018 numbers than that article (2016), the broad numbers are similar.

TJ mefty did say 80% of our non EU trade which is the other ~40% in the fullfact link

He is wrong to say that won't change tho , as you pointed out MFN rules could chat it depending on how we treat EU trade

Which is partly why we'll end up with some sort of deal.
Leaving with no deal would be an even bigger gift to Sturgeon

+ When will indyref2 be , is the going to be the next question, a no deal would see Sturgeon play her hand sooner, if a deal she'll have to wait a wee bit longer
#BorisFarwellTour today was pretty desperate stuff , his popularity up there is so dire could he even fill Ibrox with his Scottish supporters 😜?

Then we have to remove the Blue from the Red White & Blue & rename ourselves..

Wangland ?
Lesser Britain ?
Little Britain ?

He is wrong to say that won’t change tho , as you pointed out MFN rules could chat it depending on how we treat EU trade

Well the discussion was mainly about exports which wont change. As far as imports are concerned we will of course have a new tariff schedule which is a benefit.

As far as improts is concern we will of course have a new tariff schedule which is a benefit.

Unless we end up in reatilliatory tit for tat tariffs

Which would not be a benefit (see China/trump)

Replying to an hours old post on a fast moving thread is pointless.

Please ignore ;o)

TJ- The UK has the MHRA which issues guidance for pharmaceutical manufacturers and distributors, these are the guidelines we use, it is called the orange guide.

Our company also follows FDA guidelines for the US market, other rules for ROW are VICH guidelines in our case.

Brexit Britain - will they bring back Betamax?

Kimbers - I did acknowledge the misreading of Meftys post

Dougie - what about the EMA?

Yes the MHRA guidelines are aligned to those.

In answer to someones post about the two types of brexiteers, for a start I have to work and I also have to sleep.

So what about these EU FTAs then?

What percentage of UK trade is done with Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, Mexico, Chile and Greenland?

Also regarding non-sequitirs, I am replying to more than one voice here.

I often think that certain elements of a no deal WTO type exit are often overlooked, after all pure free trade is a the heart of the ERG and Tory party in general so if you analyse what would happen under a WTO exit and a zero tariff environment you start to see how a Tory gov would survive...

1. Food and consumer food are likley to become cheaper ,(The Rees Mogg, Tim Wetherspoon argument) this would keep the Redwall Tory voters happy and in practical terms reduce the amount you need to pay people in both wages and benefits over an extended period. The downside is it will remove large parts of Farming and food production as well as manufacturing (but may protect the car industry in the UK)

2. The disaster capitalists will have their day.

3. Deregulation becomes the norm but the great unwashed dont care as beer is a £1 a pint and a new TV is a £100 and chickens are 3 for a £1.

4 no need for new customs posts/people and the whole of the UK is a freeport...

So what about these EU FTAs then?

What percentage of UK trade is done with Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, Mexico, Chile and Greenland?

All the Rollover FTAs we have so far are ~8% of UK trade, and not one of them represents an improvement on what we have now,
(& iirc only the Chile one stays exactly the same in case of No Deal brexit- even then, things like rules of origin mean our exports to them will be effected)

It's a far cry from ...

https://www.businessinsider.com/liam-fox-promises-to-sign-40-free-trade-deals-the-second-after-brexit-2017-10

And what do we gain from our deal with the SADC, which includes South africa and Mozambique?

Quick google gives these figures; "Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion."

So £10 billion?
When the total looks like this;
"In 2019, the UK's exports of goods and services totalled £700 billion and imports totalled £724 billion"

I propose when all is said and done the UK economy looks more or less the same with a shift in trade to a more R.O.W focus, and yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.

What I dont see is the closing down sale that many on here would have us believe Bojo and his chums are planning.

Quick google gives these figures; “Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion.”

So £10 billion?

That's not an increase of £10bn in trade

What it means is that an extra 10bn is stil covered by the FTA we had with the EU

All this has done is ensured we don't lose out on some of the trade benefits the EU had got for us .

It still leaves us with huge costs to cover, way in excess of membership fee

yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.

When you say instability, you mean closures & job losses

more instability.

When you say instability, you mean me having to spend a few hundred quid (and a couple of days) sorting out Estonian e-residence so I can move my business over there and pay €20k of tax in Estonia rather than the UK next year.

Slow hand clap for doogie, well done. That's "taking back control" for you.

This is handy

Bloomy estimate of what we gain/lose with FTAs & assuming we get an FTA with EU

What's funny is Truss has asked her department to come up with a different USA FTA figure because she says 0.16% doesn't 'feel' right

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-23/u-k-says-benefits-of-post-brexit-trade-deals-underestimated?__twitter_impression=true