Are we at war with Russia now?

thats not good, even assuming its russian military and not a passenger jet

edit, apparently a drone

test of Putin and NATO….

im guessing Turkey will be looking for a new gas supplier this winter, too

Small wager the Russians did this deliberately as a test. Drones are cheap and you don’t risk a pilot. Putin will up the stakes further I’d imagine, more resources into Syria ? More threats in the Baltic ? I don’t think they’ll suspend gas supplies as they need the money.

Turkey is playing a very strange game, demanding €3bn, travel freedoms for their own citizens and a re-opening of EU membership discussions to slow down the flood of refugees to Greece. I wonder how much of that €3bn will be skimmed off by the government – 25% isn’t unusual we saw that in Sri Lanka after the Tsunami. Glad their request for a no flow zone over the Kurds to prevent Nato assisting them was turned down.

By the way how do you “warn” a drone ?

I don’t think they’ll suspend gas supplies as they need the money

thats the bonkers thing

could end up with russia & turkey be engaged in a limited war but still trading partners

Drone is a bit grand, it looks like an average RC plane you see down at the park on a Sunday, given how small it is its a good effort to shoot it down with a jet 8)

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jambalaya – Member

Drone is a bit grand, it looks like an average RC plane you see down at the park on a Sunday, given how small it is its a good effort to shoot it down with a jet

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Yeah looks like they knocked it over rather than shot it down!

Anyway in my experience (of watching TopGun) shouldn’t have it exploded in a huge fireball? There seems very little damager considering it crashed, never mind got dealt with by a F14 Tomcat (again, TopGun being my only point of reference).

Military Drones aren’t all massive reaper sized things, that’s pretty hefty compared to some:

(again, TopGun being my only point of reference)

You insinuate Top Gun isn’t real.

I won’t listen to this blasphemy.

Goose? Is that you Goose?

New medical director at work is 30yrs military, been the head GP for the entire UK forces, running the UK’s middle East medical ops in recent years and worked and advised with NATO….he spent a day with me before he got the job, we talked recent Afghan/Iraq matters and risk to the UK….he corrected me and pointed out that Russia is still the main threat.

His opinion was that Putin is genuinely dangerous, Russia is still hurting decades after the break up of the USSR and that the Ukraine events is a Russian test on expansion again and how the EU will respond….his opinion is that Putin/Russia only respects strength and negotiating with him is as good as a green light to continue….he said keep US and UK forces in Germany and park a load of nukes there too….it worked in the past and he reckons it’d work again.

He thinks talks of getting rid of our nuclear deterrent is nuts and effectively waves the white flag to Putin. This was from a military man so it will have his spin on it but what was terrifying was that he says MPs are well advised on Russian military movements and don’t seem that bothered!….the military are aware of increased Russian excursions into UK airspace and advise politicians accordingly….and they seem more concerned with other matters, he said it’s part of the reason he wants out, lost faith in MPs to keep us safe!…it was an eye opening day.

A tragic loss of life
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34687139

Even if it is not linked to Russia’s activity in the gulf, I imagine it will result in an escalation of the conflict

Why?

Conflict seems to be a necessary part of human nature, its just a matter of time untill there’s another big one…

I see the Ministry Of Truth in Russia has been busy – a technical fault/nothing to see here ladies and gentlemen/the worlds fastest investigated air crash.

According to bbc news IS have claimed responsibility.

And according to BBC News, IS don’t have anything capable of reaching the height the airliner was flying at.

Given the plane was at 31,000ft it’s unlikely to have been a ground launched missile. Certainly hope not anyway – especially given I’m in Sharm El Sheikh myself at the moment and am due to fly home on an A321 in a few days.

It’s pure speculation, I suspect that human error/ mechanical failure is the most.likely cause, I just assumed that if it was IS retaliation. The simplest way to do it would be getting a bomb/ saboteur on board.

Saying that the Egyptian Military is the largest in Africa/middle East, the west and Russia have been supplying them for decades. I’m not sure what anti aircraft equipment they have but it’s not impossible that some of it could fall into the wrong hands.
Either way Sisi’s brutal regime has probably done much to push many Egyptian Muslims to IS

Terrible loss of life. Hard to say right now whether it’s terrorist related, it certainly could have been a bomb onboard via an “inside job” at airport security / baggage ? With recent Russian interventions you can see ISIS in Sinai making such an attack. The BBC reports that no SOS/Mayday call was made, that’s very odd if it where a technical fault and much more like a bomb. If it is terrorist related it will definitely heighten tensions and IMO harden Egypt’s response in Sinai (inc Gaza border) and Russia in Syria.

@epic keep us posted, Air-France and Lifthansa have said they will not overfly Sinai until further notice

The airline are keen to blame ‘ external factors’ while Putin has remained uncharacteristically quiet, if it was a bomb, it seems to have caught the Russians offguard.
The final results of the investigation will take a long time to come in, even if its most likely that it mas a mechanical failure, it will hurt the Russian and Egyptian tourist industries
If Sinai based militants were to blame, I doubt even Putin would start bombing egypt, though Sisi has been fighting insurgents there for some time and its a border with gaza and israel has always been a flashpoint

@kimbers French tv was saying mist likely a bomb very early on mainly based on scattered wreckage, no mayday. This is becoming the favoured explanation. I can see the politcal rationale for Airline and Putin explanations. It turns out British government advised in Dec 2014 not to overfly the Siani below 25000ft and UK airlines responded by avoiding the area all together. My gut feel remains an inflitration of airport security and a bomb smuggled aboard

Harsh and forcefuk reaction from Russia and Egypt I would expect

Harsh and forcefuk reaction from Russia and Egypt I would expect

Apparently Isis are hoping to provoke “Rome” into a final apocalyptic battle at Dabiq to fulfill their prophecy.

Previously they interpreted “Rome” as America.

I wonder if they’ve decided Russia will be a perfectly adequate “Rome” and figure blowing airline passengers up will be an effective way to lure Russia in.

If there is a massive confrontation at Dabiq or anywhere else my money is on Russia.

SOme background here:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

I’m not sure a final battle with IS will ever occur, as a guerilla force AQ/ISIS etc has defeated everyone else who’s tried it on.
Russia were unable to defeat the mujahadeen in Afghanistan the last time they tried.
The Bedouin/ salafist militants in Sinai have been able to evade Sisi’s attempts to root them out for years now, Israel could get involved, but they surely don’t v want to destabilize the b region further.

I’m not sure a final battle with IS will ever occur, as a guerilla force AQ/ISIS etc has defeated everyone else who’s tried it on.

If the article above is correct then AQ is an idea/flexible movement that cannot be defeated. In contrast ISIS is a physical state and without physical territory it no longer exists. ISIS is not a guerilla force. So if the article is correct you *could* defeat ISIS by taking its land.

Whether that’s a good idea and whether you would just end up fighting other factions are different questions.

Question: How does ISIL pay for itself? My understanding is that it controls a number of oilfields and sells the product.
Why couldn’t / hasn’t the US or Russia eithe bomberd the fields or the pipelines to halt the ISIL cashflow?

And crude can be identified to a local field by its chemical signature. Surely clients buying it could be embargoed or otherwise penalised. Or is there another reason for maintaining ISIL ?

Oil will always have a buyer,

The oil companies keep tankers off Africa to buy back all the stuff nicked from their own pipelines

IS have also been selling looted artefacts, I think a Bible museum in the States just got into trouble for importing IS sourced clay tablets

IS obviously receive support through other avenues, of course it all gets a bit fuzzy as, ironically the Arab states we most suck up to happen to be the ones that channel IS the most $$

I might be mistaken however I believe that Turkey had been accused of buying oil without asking too many questions about it’s source???

Turkey don’t like IS, but then they are fighting the Kurds so let them off a bit
The Saudis and Qatar don’t like IS, but then at least they are Sunni so, opposed to Shia Iran, so a lot of weapons have reached them (weapons we quite possible sold to Saudi, Qatar etc) that way.
Israel don’t like IS, but then the IS associated salafist Jihadis in Sinai are rivals to Hamas, so they maintain an uneasy peace with them….

IS funding – in order of significance in my view

They captured the major bank in Mosel rumoured to have had a few billion in cash
Oil, yes lots of black market oil sales including through / to Turkey (very blind eye turned)
Hostage ransoms, eg France and Italy have paid for hostage releases (UK and US refuse to hence hostages executed)
Taxes – IS levy taxes especially on non-Muslims and Shia
“Charity fund raising” donations from outside Syria

@kimbers IMO Turkey cares quite little about IS as a threat but is very focused on the Kurds. Turkey is playing a cynical game turning a blind eye to 30,000 Jihadists travelling into Syria, asking for accelerated EU status negotiations in order for it to stop turning a blind eye for people smugglers shipping people to Greece and asking for a no fly zone over Kurdish Syria to stop the US supporting the Kurds. It’s notable most of Turkeysmairstrikes have been against Kirds in Syria