When did Shimano release Alfine 8? About 3ish years ago now? And Nexus was what 5/6 years before that?
So following the curve to it’s logical next point, it’s maybe 4 years till shimano release their ~500% ~14ish speed “Rohloff beater”…
Whichever “Big S” can get an affordable, durable Hub gear to market first with an equivalent range to a Triple X 11-32 Drivetrain will obviously steal the market, the mech won’t die overnight, legacy spares is a big market and weight weenies/Grumpy old giffers will take a long time to adopt…
Shimano are very close with this product now, bish on a Composite shell, and spanglier shifter and the letters XT (and possibly an R) and they would no doubt shift a crap load overnight…
SRAM have I think missed the masses with “Hammeredshit” Costs a small fortune has no real weight advantage, requires more fancy mounting features on the frame, and other than being a touch quicker shifting than a traditional mech (how fast do you need your front mech to change?) has very few advantages in the real world…