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Ill place a bet now ( pastry based)
1) that this party do not get more than half a dozen MPS and probably none
2) that they take enough votes off labour and the greens to ensure a right wing government next time
Well they are highly likely to end up with more MPs than that by the end of this year. And next general election they will almost certainly have the scalp of the Labour MP which you hate the most - Wes Streeting.
And yes you are quite right TJ from this moment on the reason that Labour will lose the next general election will be because of Corbyn. Expect to hear that over and over and over again.
That is a given, and the fact that the latest opinion poll gives Labour a staggering low 20% does not suggest that Labour would not otherwise be on course to win the next general election.
It is amazing what a party led by Corbyn which obviously has no support whatsoever might achieve.
Oh look, the very latest opinion poll gives Reform UK a 14 point lead over Labour, I blame Jeremy Corbyn !
https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-23rd-july-2025/
Our new Voting Intention tracker shows our highest ever lead for Reform, leading Labour by 14 points
It's ****ing enraging to hear all these self-styled Leftists saying "well, if there was PR then 'real' left parties would be wildly successful".
I would suggest then you dont go all daily ****ing mail inventing shit to get outraged about.
Its fascinating how whenever PR is mentioned there is a bunch of people who just spew out this sort of simplistic bollocks.
No more simplistic bollocks? Brilliant. Looking forward to your nuanced, evidence-based analysis of how leftist parties have done in the last 20 years in the various UK assemblies that do have PR, and what that means for Your Party under FPTP and PR.
Looking forward to your nuanced, evidence-based analysis of how leftist parties have done in the last 20 years
Ermmm why do I need to do that. You made an inane claim. I pointed out it was bollocks.
I dont need to indulge you in your goalpost shifting.
Well they are highly likely to end up with more MPs than that by the end of this year.
Only because they will get a few of the more left wing labour mps who won’t have to go through an election to be classed as their mps. Let’s see if they have any once they have to stand for election under the party with no name banner.
Blair took over a country that had bean already taken rather right of centre by Thatcherism, he them performed an accounting trick by allowing a corporate takeover of government services, which has cost the country far more in the long term than the more traditional government debt and spending, this aided the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich instead of balancing the economy. When the Tories took aver again they further accelerated that transfer off wealth, and supressed the wealth and earnings of the majority with austerity.
So Starmer has taken over a country that is already far to the right of the country Blair took control of and is suffering quite extreme financial inequality, it could almost now be described as economic segregation, and has not only done sweet FA to change tack but has wholeheartedly adopted austerity and racism, and gone further in attacking some of the most vulnerable members of society than even a tory government would have dared.
This new party will highly likely be closer to the centre of politics than this right wing aberration of Labour, and will definitely be closer to the centre than most of the STW members who claim to be centrists.
Expect to hear that over and over and over again.
Yup its going to become an overwhelmingly litany by the next election accompanied by a "a vote for him/greens/libdems is a vote for reform"
Plus angry questions about why are people supporting someone who talks about "island of strangers" and ministers who argue the right wing thugs in epping are "upset for legitimate reasons".
Well they are highly likely to end up with more MPs than that by the end of this year. And next general election they will almost certainly have the scalp of the Labour MP which you hate the most - Wes Streeting.
Only from defections - and I doubt they will get many. As for unseating Streeting? do you mean they will get elected or do you think they will just take votes off him allowing someone else to win.
So a selection of Greggs finest pasty products to you if they get more than 6 mps elected? Want to take the bet?
Well for a start Jeremy Corbyn isn't hard left.
Well he’s hardly what I would call a centrists. The last time he stood as party leader the country thought that was such a bad idea we got lumbered with Boris
Well they are highly likely to end up with more MPs than that by the end of this year.
Only because they will get a few of the more left wing labour mps who won’t have to go through an election to be classed as their mps. Let’s see if they have any once they have to stand for election under the party with no name banner.
Er, you do realise there are 5 pro-Palestine independents who all stood and defeated Labour candidates at the last general election, don't you?
They are currently all in a loose parliamentary coalition and I suspect it is highly likely that they will join the new party in the process of being formed. So with Zahra Sultana that would already make the half a dozen MPs which TJ claims won't be exceeded at the next general election.
Obviously it is likely that other MPs which Starmer has removed the Labour whip from will join them, why should they just sit as independents because of Starmer's control freakery ?
And btw if left-wing independents can win 5 parliamentary seats in the same general election that Labour won a landslide victory how many more seats do you think they could win when standing against an unpopular and failed Labour Party?
Well they are highly likely to end up with more MPs than that by the end of this year.
Only because they will get a few of the more left wing labour mps who won’t have to go through an election to be classed as their mps. Let’s see if they have any once they have to stand for election under the party with no name banner.
Er, you do realise there are 5 pro-Palestine independents who all stood and defeated Labour candidates at the last general election, don't you?
They are currently all in a loose parliamentary coalition and I suspect it is highly likely that they will join the new party in the process of being formed. So with Zahra Sultana that would already make the half a dozen MPs which TJ claims won't be exceeded at the next general election.
Obviously it is likely that other MPs which Starmer has removed the Labour whip from will join them, why should they just sit as independents because of Starmer's control freakery ?
And btw if left-wing independents can win 5 parliamentary seats in the same general election that Labour won a landslide victory how many more seats do you think they could win when standing against an unpopular and failed Labour Party?
I do thanks. That’s just shows that the odd independent can get elected. This is about standing for a party that do far has a policy they cannot deliver on Gaza. We will find out in 4 years assuming they can generate enough money to run a party and campaign
The last time he stood as party leader the country thought that was such a bad idea we got lumbered with Boris
We got lumbered with Boris, as you put it, because Reform withdrew their candidates, that won't be happening again.
Labour under Corbyn got half a million votes MORE in 2019 than they got in 2024 under Starmer.
Still, if Starmer can easily see off a challenge from Corbyn I can't see a problem for the centrists.
Other than lefty voters might be mean and not vote for them.
We will find out in 4 years assuming they can generate enough money to run a party and campaign
Ah yes, how dare a party not indebted to wealthy backers try and actual offer solutions to extreme inequality, your dismissal of politics not embracing the current failed status quo reveals how far to the right you really are.
It's ****ing enraging to hear all these self-styled Leftists saying "well, if there was PR then 'real' left parties would be wildly successful". We've had PR in Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland and London for over 20 years, and that's not how it's panned out. But these people are just as Anglocentric as Farage so they have no knowledge or interrdt in such things...
That's not the point. It's not about "getting the result you want" (hmm, where have we heard that before?) but rather that it's more representative of what the majority of people want. The fact that the majority of people have been brainwashed into believe that all the problems in this country are down to checks today's Daily Mail headline "ASYLUM SEEKERS GAMBLING AWAY TAXPAYER CASH" is a wholly different problem.
I don't believe that "real" left parties (whatever that means) would be wildly successful under PR, not least because we don't actually appear to have any. In Fantasy World Britain I'd want a government which was liberal and democratic, there's one party that actually has both of those things in their name* but they're forever tainted since Clegg failed to stand up to the Tories FIFTEEN YEARS AGO over tuition fees and Miliband had an unflattering photo taken whilst eating a sandwich. This is literally what we've come down to, the best thing that could happen for the country politically right now would be for Farage to spill someone's pint then go have a piss in a Greggs' doorway on the way home.
(* - Whether their name is still reflective of their policies and politics today I have no idea, they've been of little consequence for so long now that I haven't looked.)
Ah yes, how dare a party not indebted to wealthy backers try and actual offer solutions to extreme inequality, your dismissal of politics not embracing the current failed status quo reveals how far to the right you really are.
I been accused of many things but never a righty. All I’m pointing out is that to run a party, fund a general election campaign cost a lot of cash or a huge number of volunteers. It’s just a simple fact of life. I would much rather political parties weren’t in debt to big donors but we are where we are and Corbyn isn’t going to change that
Bloody hell I got out for a couple of pints and rather unsurprisingly but, stir quickly this thread turns into the usual few arguing who is right.
The last time he stood as party leader the country thought that was such a bad idea we got lumbered with Boris
Because, as I said on the previous page, it's a cult of personality. Team Boris got votes because he's a "character." This "Your Party" would fare better if it was headed up by Bruno Tonioli.
Ermmm why do I need to do that.
...and that's why the lessons of UK leftist parties who have already operated under PR electoral systems get ignored.
a huge number of volunteers
big donors
Actually the lack of volunteers is likely to be a problem for Labour, the sort of people who have been kicked out of the Labour Party or driven out by Starmer tend to be the very activists that work the hardest.
Any new left-wing party is likely to inherit a lot of them plus also large numbers of young and enthusiastic recruits who will feel energised by a real alternative.
As far as financial backing is concerned Unite has just kicked out Labour's deputy leader and is likely to give financial support to a new left-wing party, as are other trade unions such as the FBU and the RMT.
I imagine that what seats the new party contests, and therefore pour resources into, will be very careful considered. I genuinely don't think that volunteers and finance will a serious problem for them. The people who front it will be more critical imo.
Ernie - greggs based bet? Half a dozen seats at the next GE?
PR is also common across Europe, and much of the same problems in the UK are being experienced there, it isn't PR won't solve anything breaking the hold of wealth over politics will have a far bigger impact. Which is why it saddens me that when presented with an actual alternative to that status quo of politics owned by the wealthy, the "centrists" fall into line to dismiss and attack that alternative in favour of their political parties owned by those wealthy interests.
Bloody hell I got out for a couple of pints and rather unsurprisingly but, stir quickly this thread turns into the usual few arguing who is right.
This is a political thread. People have different political opinions. Did you expect a political thread in which everyone agreed?
What is the correct political opinion for someone who claims to ride a bike on a single track?
It used to be to support the Labour Party but I am not entirely sure that it still is.
MSP - I am just saying I do not believe they will amount to anything much apart from maybe splitting off some labour votes leading to a right wing win at the next GE
Thats what political history tells us. splinter groups on the left never achieve any significant representation, they just split the anti tory vote in FPTP systems. I actually rather like both Corbyn and Sultana
What is the correct political opinion for someone who claims to ride a bike on a single track?
I think some posters would be more interested in a Long March than a bike ride...
I absolutely agree with Kirsty that there's a housing crisis of affordability. Her article is very short on propostitions about what to do about it though. The causes are also under investigated. There's no mention of the average occupancy in those hard pressed cities. Berlin isn't on her lists but one of the most telling:
People used to live in families, often with different generations under the same roof. Now the trend is to divorce and people living alone, and people living longer, alone. The number of people per household is dropping - that's a major factor. Then you have second homes, a house in the country and in the city. Then you have the short term tourist rental phenomenon. It's as much about changing lifestyles as the rich grabbing all the property.
The rental prices just reflect supply and demand. Either properties need dividing up or new ones building, preferably having knocked down the energy pits in risk of collapse to make space for denser energy efficient properties with eco transport, no cars and some green spaces.
If you want a nice cheap place to live I suggest Thiers. A building to renovate in the delightful historic centre wil cost you around 30 000e. There again, Brexit.
Housing prices reflect deliberate government policy over many decades as well as the factors 'Edukator mentions. the middle classes feel wealthy having all that imaginary money in their house. No government could take the steps needed to reduce the prices to something reasonable as the middle classes would simply not vote for them
Thats what political history tells us.
That is great because it means that if the future is dictated by the past then Reform cannot possibly be the largest party after the next general election, Starmer will be relieved !
And so will a lot of other people......... nothing to see here, UK politics is as predictable as it's always been, either Labour or the Tories will win the next general election.
My bet is it will be a hung parliament with labour as the biggest party. No winners.
Edit - could make a pastry based bet on that as well?
I think some posters would be more interested in a Long March than a bike ride...
Some posters would prefer to goosestep.
Housing prices reflect deliberate government policy over many decades as well as the factors 'Edukator mentions. the middle classes feel wealthy having all that imaginary money in their house. No government could take the steps needed to reduce the prices to something reasonable as the middle classes would simply not vote for them
Yep we have been moving to the right for several decades, and the middle classes who call themselves centrists with their unearned property gains abandon morality at the first step to deny the solutions defend the status quo and attack the left, and then blame the poorest and most disenfranchised for the mess. STW centrism in a nutshell
Housing was just one example, supressed earnings, financial inequality, corporate benefits, the rise of the far right etc are all happening in European countries with PR. PR is not the solution, voting for parties that don't represent the financial interests of the wealthy is. Yet everybody wants to claim the facade of change that PR would bring is the change they want, and deny the real problems, as perfectly demonstrated in this thread.
My bet is it will be a hung parliament with labour as the biggest party.
And presumably the Tories the second largest party, because that is what "political history tells us".
Nigel Farage is going to be disappointed.
I wouldn't be suprised with reform being 2nd. tories reduced to a rump, lib dems and greens increasing representation.
Bloody hell I got out for a couple of pints and rather unsurprisingly but, stir quickly this thread turns into the usual few arguing who is right.
Point of correction, they are not arguing who's right, they are arguing who's left 😉
I'll get my coat and see myself to the door.
No government could take the steps needed to reduce the prices to something reasonable as the middle classes would simply not vote for them
The only three things that would cause such a massive reduction would be an incredible amount of housebuilding in a short period, massive increases in interest rates or a level of net emigration never seen in UK history. The reason those things aren't happening isn't "the middle classes don't want property prices to go down".
The reason those things aren't happening isn't "the middle classes don't want property prices to go down".No government could take the steps needed to reduce the prices to something reasonable as the middle classes would simply not vote for them
On a more serious note, check out 'gary's economics' he's an ex-Citibank trader, their top trader for a while, and some of his insights are *mindblowing* when it comes to wealth inequality.
His background:
His take on the curent situation:
I wouldn't be suprised with reform being 2nd. tories reduced to a rump
Why ? The Tories have never been lower than 2nd place in almost 200 years.
All of a sudden what "political history tells us" is no longer important ?
Ah, the schoolyard name-calling, so much more fun than boring grownup politics !
Isn’t that what they’re doing? So far I’m not seeing anything like grownup politics.
Anyway, I wouldn’t want to be a member of any political party that would want me as a member.
Ernie - are you deliberately being dense? I said the lessons from history on splinter parties from the labour party are that they never actually achieve anything. Nothing about the tories or other right wing parties.
Its a simple fact - in my lifetime I have seen several groups splinter off from the labour party. None of them achieved anything. NOne of the various leftist groups from outside the labour party have ever ( apart from the SSP for one term) had significant elected representation or achieved anything
The only three things that would cause such a massive reduction would be an incredible amount of housebuilding in a short period, massive increases in interest rates
Yup - and those two things are political decisions that could be taken but will not because of the damage it would do to the middle classes.
I have long advocated a massive housebuilding effort for this very reason - and it would have other long lasting benefits.
House prices are an artificially high bubble produced by government policy and government policy could reverse it
why are people supporting someone who talks about "island of strangers" and ministers who argue the right wing thugs in epping are "upset for legitimate reasons".
Ha! It’s The Battle of Epping Forest! I know a song about that! Who’s going to play The Bethnal Green Butcher, and who Liquid Len?
Ernie - are you deliberately being dense? I said the lessons from history on splinter parties from the labour party are that they never actually achieve anything. Nothing about the tories or other right wing parties.
No I am not being deliberately dense, I had no idea that what "political history tells us" is only valid when you are trying to make a point but apparently has no value when it does not fit in comfortably with your preferred narrative. And why would I?
But now I get it.........what "political history tells us" is that left-wing breakaways from the Labour Party never actually achieve anything but everything else that "political history tells us" should be ignored.
Btw when was the last time there was a left-wing breakaway from the Labour Party? I can't recall.
*sighs* Again - just read what I wrote. I did not say "left wing breakaway" I said "splinter parties from the labour party"
Now you tell me - since the formation of labour what left wing group has had significant representation and achieved anything politically?
*sighs* Again - just read what I wrote. I did not say "left wing breakaway" I said "splinter parties from the labour party"
No you didn't say that but a left-wing breakaway is precisely what we are talking about.
So if these breakaways were not left-wing they were obviously right-wing. Yes there's been a few of those and yes they have all failed. But what has that got to do with an unprecedented left-wing breakaway?
And most important of all what on earth makes you think that the political environment in the UK in 2025 hasn't changed and that the same rules and old certainties still apply ?
I find it quite astonishing that anyone can delude themselves into believing that it's business as usual when it comes to current UK politics.
Still, I guess it's one way to deal with an uncomfortable reality.
Corbyn, the left's answer to Farage, except he won't get any where near the traction. At the moment there is far too much hate and inequality in this country for proper left wing policies to flourish, Corbyn of all people isn't going to change that. We've had years of people expecting lifestyles and services that haven't been delivered, they are bitter and finding someone to blame other than themselves is what Farage has tapped into.
he won't get any where near the traction
Well, not enough to get the left into power. But then, you don't need to get into power to effect change. As the populist liars and charlatans on the right have already proven. Can the left achieve the same, not in the next decade.
But does the UK electorate warrant a "left for the UK" choice in elections, setting aside any changes that brings in the likelihood of that splitting the left to right of centre vote and handing government to Reform).....yes.
If it wasn't for the increased chance of the UK being handed over to an event more extreme wealth extraction agenda of the right, I'd be all in. But, like Brexit, any left wing hopes of what it might open up as options aren't relevant anytime soon