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This is going to be the Brexit thing again isnt it - we've got virus as a nation so we'll just damn well get on with it. Stating the obvious, there is no right bored now lets get back to normal with this.
In other news - I see Boris is sitting up and engaging. This is conjuring up images Sid James carry on style antics. Do the nurses get additional danger Boris payments?
Yes but both of those relied on an effective vaccine.
if can get one then we can control the virus.
As said above herd immunity by vaccination is good, herd immunity by letting people be infected is a great way to kill a lot of people and potentially give a whole lot more life changing chronic conditions.
but a vaccine is a big if, wether you like it or not, it is not a given that one will be made that allows us to deal with this in an effective way.
Plus consider the world population size now compared to the time of smallpox, the doses required will be massive.
6+billion if it is a single shot, double if it requires booster.
those are not simple numbers and the scale up issues are mind boggling and the costs are insanely big, probably way beyond most countries (there is a reason gavi gets given a lot of vaccines at cost price, and those are tiny numbers in comparison to this)
"Subscriber
I’ll say it again – Karol Sikora is a medical oncologist, he irradiates tumours as his day job....He has no more expertise on this subject than your GP."
Firstly, a disclaimer: I used to work with (for?) him. And: I like him. A fair bit.
He's an accomplished but unsung epidemiologist, as was/is that whole cohort of UK onco consultants. Admittedly in solid-body tumours, but the methodology is sound and the working methods used are comparable in terms of gathering data, modelling, crunching the maths and extrapolating. Fighting cancer is a war that will be won primarily by data, and his contributions to this and clinical research in general are legion.
As to criticism of the NHS, etc- he was right, and still is, if you closely read what he *actually* said.
Anyway. I trust him more than I trust Cummings.
Plus can you point to where I said herd immunity was bad? Otherwise as said previously wind your neck in
Sorry homerun,
Heathrow isn't handling 80 million passengers now is It!
If the airports had been shut down earlier there'd have been a big cost bit nothing compared to the cost now.
Act early, spend a billion to save a trillion.
When you mean Europe you are really referring to France who with their assimilationism were in contrast to the Britsh. Plus after WW2 de Gaulle wanted all their territories back in contrast to everyone else who was letting them go. France built very little for or in its colonies, especially West Africa, and maintained a strong influence for many years backing local autocrats and having Total S.A almost acting like a branch of local government. Needless to say, many of these francophile autocrats bled their treasuries dry and these countries are now poorer than they should be. China throw free roads and infrastructure at African states and aligning with China is a chance for local demagogues to 'stick it to the white Europeans'. It's all rather dysfunctional and there is nothing benign about CCP's China.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-long-term-plan
This is a good article that covers a lot of the ground discussed in the last however many pages
Good summary, thanks for sharing.
I have a couple of questions from it for people with domain knowledge:
there is a faint hope that transmission could fade away altogether during summer,
Why? (I've not head that mentioned anywhere.)
The problem for countries currently under lockdown is that it’s very hard to predict when a second peak will occur, how bad it will be, or if it will happen at all.
Why would there *not* be a second peak? As soon as we go out of lockdown cases ramp up until the next lockdown. Why wouldn't they?
...and one comment:
Germany is reportedly planning to ease the transition from lockdown by issuing so-called “immunity certificates” that would allow people to leave lockdown early if they tested positive for antibodies to the virus.
I hadn't heard this but that would be my plan. It's gonna be a bit longer than they hoped given this morning's news. 🙁
Someone's notion of herd immunity has suddenly changed. Some of us have been following this thread long enough to have noticed.
The notion of "herd immunity" in the context of Corona virus is and always has been the idea that a lot of people just get the virus and suddenly trying to change that to vaccination to get herd immunity is not fooling anyone.
Your position has become untenable, just admit it, outofbreath.
Plus can you point to where I said herd immunity was bad? Otherwise as said previously wind your neck in
Apologies, I thought you were disagreeing with me.
but a vaccine is a big if, wether you like it or not, it is not a given that one will be made that allows us to deal with this in an effective way.
Agree. Most informed comment seems optimistic but far from certain, and anyway, it's a long way off.
Plus consider the world population size now compared to the time of smallpox, the doses required will be massive.
6+billion if it is a single shot, double if it requires booster.
those are not simple numbers and the scale up issues are mind boggling and the costs are insanely big, probably way beyond most countries (there is a reason gavi gets given a lot of vaccines at cost price, and those are tiny numbers in comparison to this)
Yeah, I've been losing sleep over this. There's going to be a horrible period where a vaccine/antibody test exists but where a significant chuck of the world can't get it because they're literally not making it fast enough. The UK won't be at the back of the queue but we won't be a the front of it either... ...and pity the poor people at the back... 🙁
The summer aspect is simply because it is seen in flu, so they are hopinh out will be analogous, it seems to happen as a result of a few aspects partly because people are more spread out and get outside, there may be an aspect of uv causing a faster degradation of virus too.
The second peak simply can't be answered, no one knows is the absolute truth. You would expect to be further infections once the lockdown eases but we may not see it as a defined peak like in pandemic flu. A lot will depend on testing and surveillance I suspect.
With the lockdown antibody testing leading to an easing of cases, you would expect that it is not because a certain level of immunity had been achieved in the population, more that once antibodies have been produced it is less likely that live virus will be being shed, so as a result a lower risk of infections going nuts as fast
The notion of “herd immunity” in the context of Corona virus is and always has been the idea that a lot of people just get the virus
That's what I understood by the term too.
No worries, we are all in this together, honestly the scale of vaccine that will be required is astonishing.
Plus all the validation work of both the initial batches then the scale up and testing including the stability and that is before you get anywhere near commercial production.
Depending on the route of production it may be that some nasty choices have to be made too as other vaccine production could be put on hold to make space.
The notion of “herd immunity” in the context of Corona virus is and always has been the idea that a lot of people just get the virus
That’s what I understood by the term too.
Nope. The term long pre-dates Corona Virus. It is well understood and well used and more typically applies to vaccination:
http://english.oxforddictionaries.com/herd%20immunity
the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.
This is herd immunity
outofbreath
Memberthe plan seems to be to infect everyone
Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.
It’s just a case of trying to limit new cases to a level where we all get infected without overwhelming the NHS.
Posted 3 weeks ago
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This is vaccination and has nothing to do with the notion of herd immunity due to everyone getting the virus promoted by the fools in government a few weeks back in the context of covid:
outofbreath
Memberthe most dangerous viruses took am awful lot of people before they were controlled. Smallpox was an awful disease, measles which can be controlled is now having a come back. you don’t defeat viruses you only mitigate their affects
Smallpox is the classic text book example of herd immunity working ! Surely you learned about Edward Jenner at school? He invented the vaccine. Everyone gets the vaccine; we get herd immunity. By the 50’s Smallpox is extinct. Smallpox *has* been defeated.
Measles is another classing case of herd immunity. What do you think the first M in MMR stands for? Ok, it still occurs but we have heard immunity to it and very few people die of it. Apparently 4500 deaths have been prevented since 1968 in the UK *because* of herd immunity!
You’re picking two outstanding successes of herd immunity to argue against herd immunity…
Posted 37 minutes ago
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I've reported the post with the second quote for fake news. It does no one a service when someone tries to save face by changing the meaning of an expression to suit their own ends
I’ve reported the post with the second quote for fake news. It does no-one a service when someone tries to save face by changing the meaning of an expression to suit their own ends
You I did and laughed.
Every year for the last 8 years I do a refresher on how vaccines work and what they are for, the biggest thing being herd immunity. The more people who are vaccinated the more it protects others.
When Johnson and co. were talking about herd immunity you know they weren't talking about vaccination, Drac. But whatever.
edit: no more explantion needed, people can read back.
Every year for the last 8 years I do a refresher on how vaccines work and what they are for, the biggest thing being herd immunity. The more people who are vaccinated the more it protects others.
I just saw it on Operation Ouch, but I know Dr. Xand and Dr.Chris *never* lie. 🙂
Spot missing word in this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_vaccine
That’s right, “herd”
Google smallpox vaccine herd immunity
First two hits, the science museum and the WHO.
Drac, of course you're right that it's difficult comparing an African country to a European one with regards policing, Nairobi has enforced a night time curfew and a lot of the policing is done by a quite scary conscripted army.
Still, I think it's fair to compare how competent or consistent one government is compared to another, whilst considering differences in regimes. It is also fair to compare the relative stupidity of respective populations.
Just spoke to Mrs Inkster in Nairobi via What's App. She's just bought some home made, four layered waxed cotton face masks with filters. Kenyan schools have been churning them out like theres no tomorrow. (Pun intended). You have to wear one before they will let you into any shop.
There's also hand sanitizing points at the entry to every shop. You have to use them before you're allowed in to the shop and before you touch any produce. Just been food shopping in Manchester city centre this afternoon, I reckon less than 2% of people I saw were wearing masks, and you can guess how many shops had hand sanitizer at the door!
Also Kenyan health ministry has just developed a new test based on their experiences with HIV and malaria, they're going to test 35 thousand people every 24 hours.
Producing enough face masks and hand sanitizer and putting maximum resources into testing is not dependent on the degree to which you're a police state, it's merely dependent on how seriously you take the virus and how competent your institutions are in the face of an existential threat.
Vaccination is a strategy.
Herd immunity as a strategy is do nothing.
This was your notion of herd immunity three weeks back outofbreath
outofbreath
MemberWhich in no way contracticts my statement – “Yes, there’s no vaccine and may never be one so everyone has to be infected to get resistance. There’s no alternative.”
Yes it does.
No it doesn’t. There is no country that is going into lock down until a vaccine is discovered. Any strategy other than that is a herd immunity strategy.
You gave China as an example but failed to claim they were remaining in lock down indefinately, because they’re not. They’re going to come out of lockdown with 95pc of their population without resistance. So it will flare up again, and they’ll go into lockdown again. It’s a herd immunity strategy.
Posted 3 weeks ago
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Time for bed, feel free to have the last word till tomorrow.
When Johnson and co. were talking about herd immunity you know they weren’t talking about vaccination, Drac. But whatever.
Yes I do but Out of Breath is explaining what herd immunity is with vaccines.
Time for bed, feel free to have the last word till tomorrow.
And that there sums up your report.
Rydster,
Happy to have a conversation about Africa and Colonialism but best done on another thread I think, as some have pointed out how this thread should remain explicitly about the virus.
My observations about different approaches to the pandemic shown by the West vs East Africa / Singapore etc are solely in relation to strategies (or lack of) for combating the virus.
But totally agree with your observation that herd immunity is to do with vaccination and shouldn't be thought of as a strategy.
Vaccination is a strategy.
Herd immunity as a strategy is do nothing.
It isn’t, but that was not the clear communication of the government earlier. Maybe they were hoping for some magic long-term vaccine.
Anyway. Epidemic is predicted to be over by July. Globally. You heard it here second.
What? When? Why? How? Where?
July?
When do the pubs open?
😉
Vaccination is a strategy.
Herd immunity as a strategy is do nothing.
Vaccination when you don't have a vaccine is doing nothing.
The end goal of vaccination *is* herd immunity.
In the long run the world *will* [1] end up with herd immunity to CV.
What percentage of people gain resistance from catching it and what percentage of people will develop resistance from a vaccine will depend entirely on how long a vaccine takes to release in large numbers and how fast the disease spreads.
[1] Almost certainly.
The summer aspect is simply because it is seen in flu, so they are hopinh out will be analogous, it seems to happen as a result of a few aspects partly because people are more spread out and get outside, there may be an aspect of uv causing a faster degradation of virus too.
Except it seems to be doing quite nicely in warmer climates.
I was wondering how it's going to stack up with hay fever - usually flu is gone by hay fever season. Now we are going to mix up allergic reaction that can cause breathing difficulties with virus that can cause breathing difficulties.
Also Kenyan health ministry has just developed a new test based on their experiences with HIV and malaria, they’re going to test 35 thousand people every 24 hours.
Antibody or antigen?
Either way, assuming it's easy to produce in large numbers, I'd have thought almost every government in the world would want a license for that and would be willing to pay top dollar.
Anyway. Epidemic is predicted to be over by July. Globally. You heard it here second.
Will it be over by the 31st July. Just so I know if I can get away somewhere for my birthday*
*as my employer is fighting to continue existing beyond its 120th year I rather imagine my birthday will involve frugal activity
@oldagedpredator
I think after the deaths have been assessed the impact on lung disease is going to be bad, you have to assume there will be a large increase in copd, asthma, and other inflammatory respiratory diseases.
Plus having issues with lungs will likely lead to more flu deaths etc.
covid19 the gift that keeps on giving
The problem with attaining herd immunity via that route is maths, basically. We don’t know how long survivors will gain immunity for, or how reliably. But it needs to be very long and very reliable, it’s the only way it works- because the rate of infection has to be kept low to avoid overwhelming hospitals, which makes the volume of survivors low. So the rate of loss or failure of immunity needs to be even lower so that the level of immunity can rise at all, let alone rise to the levels required, otherwise we’re basing all our hopes on filling a bowl that leaks faster than we can fill it. Even the most optimistic infection rate figures still rely on a long and strong immunity- a big bowl that doesn’t leak much.
Seems to me, as long as the virus remains fairly widely circulating, I RECKON anyone who's raised an immune response is likely to maintain it as they'll be continuously exposed. So in the context of a prolonged outbreak with still a relatively high number of new cases, they'll maintain it - perhaps healthcare workers in particular since their working environment will have higher exposure
Final end is always hard. Because of stochastic noise. So I picked 10/day as nominal end.
Final end is always hard. Because of stochastic noise. So I picked 10/day as nominal end.
Does that mean you were serious about global end by July? I thought you were joking.
Outofbreath.
Can't give you the details on the Kenyan test, Mrs was reading the news there as we were talking on WhatsApp.
I'm just gobsmacked that all the things we are talking about here (testimg, trackimg, face masks, sanitizer etc) are being acted on in a country with a fraction of the resources we have here.
Most of what we are discussing here is speculation about a virus we have little understanding of. That's fair enough, were all looking for whatever information we can get our hands on and this thread has been more informative than most media sources (thanks to all the medical staff and researchers that have been posting).
I'm no expert and in truth, seeing as we don't have a full understanding of the virus there are no experts as yet. That being the case I'm most interested in what we can do about something given that we don't fully understand it. What can we do that doesn't have a downside, that isn't just rolling the dice? Using masks, sanitizer, doing tracking and testing don't have a downside as far as I can see.
Why can a country like Kenya be ahead of us on all these points when they are 2 months behind us in terms of the outbreak?
I think Holyrood is expecting another 12-13 weeks of significant lock down.
Which is early July. But even if that happens, what it looks like I’m not sure.
Staged seems probable with the dance/intermittent measures to follow. Then effective testing and tracing. Then carry on until vaccine or eradication. Or both.
Seems to me, as long as the virus remains fairly widely circulating, I RECKON anyone who’s raised an immune response is likely to maintain it as they’ll be continuously exposed.
I'll let you know how that works out as a theory.
Why can a country like Kenya be ahead of us on all these points when they are 2 months behind us in terms of the outbreak?
I think you’ve partially answered your own question there.
Being behind in infections is helping them not hindering them.
It should have helped us too...
Final end is always hard. Because of stochastic noise. So I picked 10/day as nominal end.
Does that mean you have "final" figures for UK?
Why can a country like Kenya be ahead of us on all these points when they are 2 months behind us in terms of the outbreak?
Maybe as they’ve had a lot more models to look at, there’s cultural difference too and the enforced we of controlling a lockdown at such short notice. Then there’s they are 2 months behind so we’ll see long term how it it compares to other countries.
So what's the end goal of a herd immunity strategy when you don't have a vaccination?
Vaccination is a means to the end of herd immunity, but when 'herd immunity' was touted as the 'clever' 'grand plan' a few weeks ago it was implicitly as a means, just like putting out a fire isn't a strategy but an end; the use of a fire extinguisher is the strategy (means). And if it was as an end then the means (the strategy) was actually passivity. It's a strategy of do nothing.
were serious about global end by July?
Hasn't said which July.
https://giphy.com/gifs/culture--think-hmm-d3mlE7uhX8KFgEmY
they’ll maintain it – perhaps healthcare workers in particular since their working environment will have higher exposure
as long as they get mild symptoms
in the worst cases this virus seems to be triggering a cytokine storm- where your immune system goes into overdrive, causing massive inflamation in the lungs & potentially killing them.
as graham points out there will be many left with life changing disability, putting further strain n healthcare, not to mention that NHS workers are already being pushed to the max, long shifts in full PPE are already taking their toll
in other news Im 3D printing some surgical mask adaptors for a colleague whos on the COVID ward at MK hospital, wearing the masks looped over the ear for long times is apparently uncomfortable
https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:4249113
That’s cool Kimbers. My eldest is asking her 6th form DT friends to see if they can help.
Drac, piemonster,
Kenya may be 2 months behind us so can learn from events but we were 2 months behind China and failed to learn from events.
Plus it's not that they are catching up, they are ahead of us already. Better tracking, better testing, easier access to face masks and sanitizer. Oh, and that other thing.... a strategy.
Meanwhile we are procrastinating and pontificating, making excuses as to why we, one of the most advanced countries in the world can't sort out any of these basic things.
Its pretty nice to be involved, theres a local 3D printer collective who are doing loads of them
I think Rydster has fallen asleep with 1 finger on CTRL and another on V.
Does that mean you were serious about global end by July?
I don't joke about serious stuff 😉 (well I do but the humour would be darker).
Yes I have some "final figures", my two methods have not yet converged well for the UK - needs another week of data really. they have for Italy, Spain and US. So it is time to publish. My analysis models 50 countries data simulataneously to make predictions for each and every country in the dataset that have reached a common starting point. July looks good to call for the end, but it may drag along at low levels. Less than 19,000 UK deaths would be considered an upside based on today's analysis. If I could work out how to post images I would add the projection - maybe I'll post it on Twitter tomorrow.
Finishing the publication now. I hate adding references.
Anyway. Epidemic is predicted to be over by July. Globally. You heard it here second.
TiRed, you know much more about all this than me, but I cannot picture that at all. However, part of my problem with that is that I’m not quite sure what that means. Any chance you could explain a little, please.
This migjt be the most stupid thing you read on the Internet today but here goes..
Is there not a drug that lowers the body's immune response to massive infection rates that drops the cyketone reaction or at leadt slows it to a point whereby it becomes manageable. Like in transplant patients where they use anti rejection drugs till the recipients body accepts the new kidney.
If its our own auto immune system flooding the lungs with snot making them not good ay being lungs then use a low dose of a drug, that might not even exist for all i know to let the virus have its own way for longer periods, but stop the body kicking into overdrive oncevit figures there is a new kid in town who doesnt belong
Disclaimer. I failed pretty much every exam i sat, i have a cse grade 4 in chemistry and thats sbout as sciencey as i get so dont pick on the thick ginger kid at the back. No one likes a bully.. Mkay
BBC reporting that Matt Hancock is 'seeking refunds' for the 3.5 million dud antibody tests he bought
Edit
Some forum weirdness
I’ll let you know how that works out as a theory.
It's holds up fine for Chicken Pox. I researched it last summer when I was thinking of getting my Daughter vaccinated for it. (£130 in your local chemist.) Turns out the only reason we don't give kids Chicken Pox Vaccine is that we want them to catch it to give their parents a booster in mid life to protect their parents from shingles in later life! Ergo resistance can be topped up with contact with an infected person.
maybe I’ll post it on Twitter tomorrow.
Can you let us know you Twitter ID so we can follow you?
And here
Kenya may be 2 months behind us so can learn from events but we were 2 months behind China and failed to learn from events.
The West is trying to learn from China, they're not sharing their knowledge:
https://spectator.us/pompeo-china-more-transparent/
Aye, on here too, I have no love for Twitter.
If I could work out how to post images I would add the projection
Use postimage.org copy the direct link then on here click the image link paste and submit.
Mike Pompeo- can't imagine he'd be the type to rub up the Chinese the wrong way.
TiRed...if this epidemic is over by July I will literally post a pic of me eating my hat...
That said..you clearly know far more about this than me, so you must clearly see trends in numbers that are beyond my understanding.
I just pray you are correct..I have never wanted to eat a piece of my own headwear so much in my life!
Is there not a drug that lowers the body’s immune response to massive infection rates that drops the cyketone reaction or at leadt slows it to a point whereby it becomes manageable
There’s any amount of drugs that lower the immune system but the individual immune response to a specific drug is not calculable due to each person having an immune system that is inherent to the individual in question.
I have a box of tecfidera (dimethyl fumerate) that I previously took for multiple sclerosis, it protects cells from damage by chemicals released by an immune system attack and reduces inflammation (quells the body’s own immune response) being very involved with my treatment I asked my consultant how it works in the reduction of efficiency of my immune system and he admitted they don’t fully understand how it works so I’d be very wary of trying it.
Probably the most infamous attempt to modulate the immune system caused a cytokine storm that nearly killed 6 trial volunteers & left them with horrenodous side effects
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10747-horror-clinical-trial-in-test-tube-recreation/
but theres hope that for the worst cases of Covid therapies can be found, steroids etc that will help
as long as they get mild symptoms
in the worst cases this virus seems to be triggering a cytokine storm- where your immune system goes into overdrive, causing massive inflamation in the lungs & potentially killing them.
Well, yeah (or rather maybe): immune systems are weird things, innit - and this virus does weird things to them
Genuine Q for any immunology fans:
Do we have evidence that re-exposure (or continued exposure) to "anything" that's previously driven a full-on sepsis is likely to predispose to the same thing again in that indidvidual IF they're antibody +ve ?
Seems to me that we "should" expect adequate levels of circulating antibody to be protective at least in the short term and I hadn't imagined that there would be the same % risk of severe infection next time round - my understanding is that most sepsis is at least triggered in the presence of high infective loads, isn't it, and the antibodies should mitigate that ?
... but those who've had severe sepsis often end up with deranged immune systems for months afterwards anyway - severe bacterial pneumonias lead to increased death rates well after "recovery". I don't even know if you'd see seroconversion in somebody whose system's been through all that with COVID; would be interesting to test that. Suppose somebody in China probably has.
I know that death from sepsis has a heritable component and that some people do have recurrent sepsis but that feels like a different thing to me [true enough, sometimes with the same (bacterial) species but I'm gonna say those are at least sometimes due to failed bacteriological cure in the first place] in my mind allied to some genetic predisposition and poor immune recovery from the initial insult that allow high infective loads again followed by their genetic weirdness going wild again.
BBC reporting that Matt Hancock is ‘seeking refunds’ for the 3.5 million dud antibody tests he bought
Paypal gift ?
I cannot picture that at all. However, part of my problem with that is that I’m not quite sure what that means
Right. I have a model of transmission that describes the trajectory of the global epidemic. It is what we call parametric. That means it is a function of things we have to measure (like probability of death and delay from catching the virus to dying). Quite a smart function, not just y=mx+c (although that was ok early on for log(deaths)). This model makes assumptions that are valid at the global level, but make the strong assumption that we will carry on with social distancing. If we do, then the number of new cases and deaths will peak within 14 days and start to decline. The decline is also exponential.
IF the model is valid, (big if) then the forward projection shows that the epidemic in new cases will fall away by July. That doesn’t mean there will be. I new cases, and it doesn’t mean no social distancing. Because w know what happens when we all carry on regardless (deaths double every two days!). I have a near term different QC model to see a week in advance too. If the two align then I am happy to project further with the funky function.
I haven’t done any stochastic analyses for probability epidemic will be gone by some time. It’s too early for those sums. But the global courses under social distancing is encouraging.
[TL:DR] prediction is hard, particularly about the future. But based on the data we are about half way through the woods. Stay inside.
Is there not a drug that lowers the body’s immune response to massive infection rates that drops the cyketone reaction or at leadt slows it to a point whereby it becomes manageable
At least 3 in COVID trials currently (one of which is anakinra which I can only assume is somehow a star wars joke since it affects leucotrienes)
(I don't think ARDS is quite the same as a "proper" cytokine storm, especially with COVID - odd things happen to blood tests that definitely show that things are turned up, but a LOT is local to the lung until/unless they get really really ill)
@kimbers - I thought that steroids reduced the efficacy of the immune system?
I thought that steroids reduced the efficacy of the immune system?
yes, in the case of the severe patients its the immune system overreacting to the virus that is killing them
@kimbers – I thought that steroids reduced the efficacy of the immune system?
Good point - at least 1 trial looking at steroids too. (initial stuff from China suggested that steroids might be a bad idea but it may be all in the timing)
TiRed: thanks, that does actually sound reasonable. I’m surprised that you have found this to be ‘Global’ , as the social distancing has been enforced to different extents throughout the World. Do you mean different countries will arrive at this point roughly around July?
When we get to this point, what percentage of the population will be infective? As, as far as I can see, by that stage the disease will be essentially everywhere (at least within the UK) and a relaxation in ‘lockdown’ will set things off again.
The West is trying to learn from China, they’re not sharing their knowledge:
https://spectator.us/pompeo-china-more-transparent//blockquote >
not sure Id trust a word the Whitehouse is saying on this, well about as much as Id trust the chinese government!
they are looking to blame everyone but themselves, in true trump style
I may be naive, but I’d trust China as much as I’d trust the USA and the Uk.
I’ve heard (through the Imperial grapevine) that strong immunosuppressants are the main therapy in severe cases. Initial regime was pump full of antivirals, then followed by the immunosuppressants (I was told which class, but not my field, so I don’t recall). Antivirals weren’t having an effect, so they’re not bothering with those now.
This was about a week ago, so may well have changed again. Seems a very steep learning curve.
Does anyone know what has happened to the Home Secretary?
surely they should be front & centre ?
I can understand why theyve put Marc Francois back in his box, but as much as I dislike her, surely Patel should be heading up news confernces etc?
Three questions for China.
1. Why aren't you closing your wet meat markets?
2. Why aren't you closing your wet meat markets?
3. Why aren't you closing your wet meat markets?
Antivirals are sadly unlikely to be effective against COVID-19. The reason being that they were never screened against this virus and require concentrations that will not be achievable clinically. Immune suppression is the line to prevent the descent to ARDS, and this has been the research track for a generation. Every potential therapy I looked at today with our team has immunosuppressant activity.
Steroids are a mainstay, for a short term therapy there Seems to be little else available. I’ve spent an age looking for better “steroids” that don’t have the dreadful safety profile. It’s hard.
I’m on prophylactic antibiotics this week in the hope to stave off possible post viral infections. That’s a learning too.
BTW in sever Covid infection the disregulation of clotting is a serious confounded of mortality. When D Dimer climbs it is not good news. Anticoagulation therapy should be given and I assume is.
Zhou et al Lancet 2020.
Kimbers,
All the government offices have been subsumed by the role of prime minister. That's why we don't have a deputy prime minister.
Traditionally the role of deputy prime minister is there in case the prime minister finds himself indisposed/ dead.
Is that self administered ABs or is that now a recognised precaution?
CEO of Astra Zeneca just on peston talking up a drug they have in trial to shut down cytokine cascade
inkster
Member
Kimbers,All the government offices have been subsumed by the role of prime minister. That’s why we don’t have a deputy prime minister.
Traditionally the role of deputy prime minister is there in case the prime minister finds himself indisposed/ dead.
just seems odd, Gove, Sharma, Sunak, Buckland, Hancock, even Shapps have done media rounds
youd think that Home Secretary wouldve been pushing the stay locked down stuff?
conscious decision not to go hardline, the nudge unit softly, softly approach?
or is she revising for the sensitivity training shes going to have to sit through after the bullying investigation?
locked down in a foreign country while secretly meeting with their defense minister?
edit
just seen this
Kimbers,
Just read that, seems like the sensitivity training is beginning to pay dividends......not.
You're right though, the Home Secretary should be front and centre at a time like this but as I explained earlier, we don't have a Home Secretary any more, that role is reserved for the prime minister now, along with all other roles.
Boris thinks a cabinet is for arranging ornaments and trinkets, just like granny used to do before she was sacrificed in the name of herd immunity.
The only annomaly in all this seems to be Rishi Sunak, who Boris thought would be his patsy. Somehow Sunak has managed to escape this cabinet of curiosities and emerged as his own man, to the surprise of many, including me! He seems to be the only credible member of the government, all the others seem to be incompetent and/or terrified.
I wish the UK leadership had more in common with NZ. Jacinda Ardern didn’t **** around.