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declared cases
Aye declared cases, there's no country testing every one of their citizens though.
A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I'd imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.
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And we're all only in the first month of this... Many months to go.
If immunity isn't a thing, that's not good, cause lock downs aren't lasting for 12-18 months.
Immunity isn't and never has been a policy, it's just a consequence and a consideration over time.
It also sounds like anti body testing is further away than we'd like too.
Testing is good, as it gives us a picture of what and where it's happening, but that and lock downs aren't going to stop this on their own.
You also talk as if people, like me that understand that immunity is and needs to be a consideration are talking as if we want it just to be let loose through to populations, we don't, that would be crazy.
But in lieu of a miracle and the virus dying out on it's own or a vaccine magically appearing early. Then how to lift restrictions while protecting the most amount of people is still the only game in town.
Cause as I say, lock down isn't lasting forever.
How about this for a “sporty” suggestion for how soon we could be out:
His self-appointed role so far has to be the voice of optimism, convincing people to stay strong because things are working. I've chosen to believe him, partly because I need all the optimism I can get at the moment, as above my Wife's Nursing team is currently at 30% infection rates, with 10% being hospitalised (bare in mind it's a team of 10, not thousands).
He's usually fairly cautious with his his ifs/buts/caveats but he's not been much off the mark and whilst he's an Oncologist, not a virologist he's a highly experienced one. I put more faith in him than I do politicians or journalists unless they're directly quoting experts.
While was out on my state sanctioned one a day, I did wonder (after observing that there was an awful lot of traffic about) whether petrol rationing had come up in government thinking.
Ah yes, Prof Karol Sikora, long time critic of the NHS, founder of a private for profit University and a CEO private health company, not an epidemelogist. Professional contrarian, liar, and not at all an interested party...
wikipedia
Some people on this forum are talking about herd immunity as if it’s happening (you know who you are),
Well it is. The end state here *is* herd immunity.
Current infection rates even in the hardest hit countries are a fraction of a percent for declared cases and about 1% if you assume real cases are an order of magnitude higher – which is unlikely given the Mulhouse religious meeting in which 2000/2500 were aware they’d been infected, the percentage of people that don’t know they’ve had it is small.
To get herd immunity you are looking at 100 times more misery and suffering than were are seeing now.
Or a vaccine. The reason we have a herd immunity to Mumps is because of the MMR vac etc. PRetty painless!
Also your numbers are wrong. Literally nobody knows how many people have already had it. (There are estimates from 500,000 to 30 million in the UK.)
Yup as discussed yesterday those lazy teachers have even given up their Easter break.
Some have. Many haven't.
His self-appointed role so far has to be the voice of optimism, convincing people to stay strong because things are working. I’ve chosen to believe him, partly because I need all the optimism I can get at the moment
Yup, that's why I follow him. This is the first thing he's said I thought was especially controversial 🙂
Those imperial figures are for infected at 28/3/2020 so the majority of them will have symptoms by now. If they're right then about 2 million Brits were infected at that date and you can expect a death toll of over 1% (based on the Mulhouse experience) of those infected a month or so later so 20 000. And that's just for 2.7% infected. Now do it for the 60% needed for herd immunity.
And what if erradication is possible. The Chinese seem to be claiming it is. The exit strategies being developped in France, Germany and Italy all seem to be based on progressively less cases rather than progessiviely more. Confinement to get down to manageable numbers then test and trace to slowly knock out the remaining clusters.
(There are estimates from 500,000 to 30 million in the UK.)
Well, I just estimated that we've all had it so add that to the list 😀
What sort of accuracy is required for a good standard, or useful standard of test?
It depends upon how many people have caught it in the population as well as how accurate it is. A 95% accurate test with 3% of the population having the antibody would mean just over 60% of those testing positive for the antibody will not have it. The equivalent number of a 99% test would be 25%.
Aye declared cases, there’s no country testing every one of their citizens though.
A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I’d imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.
And we’re all only in the first month of this… Many months to go.
If immunity isn’t a thing, that’s not good, cause lock downs aren’t lasting for 12-18 months.
Immunity isn’t and never has been a policy, it’s just a consequence and a consideration over time.
It also sounds like anti body testing is further away than we’d like too.
Testing is good, as it gives us a picture of what and where it’s happening, but that and lock downs aren’t going to stop this on their own.
You also talk as if people, like me that understand that immunity is and needs to be a consideration are talking as if we want it just to be let loose through to populations, we don’t, that would be crazy.
But in lieu of a miracle and the virus dying out on it’s own or a vaccine magically appearing early. Then how to lift restrictions while protecting the most amount of people is still the only game in town.
Cause as I say, lock down isn’t lasting forever.
+1 to all of this.
If immunity isn’t a thing, that’s not good, cause lock downs aren’t lasting for 12-18 months.
Yup... If immunity isn't a thing then a vaccine won't work either and we'll just have to all get Corona Virus over and over again for the rest of our lives.
Yes I find it baffling people seem keen to disprove immunity..
Honestly, think about the ramifications of there being no immunity.....
Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September
Whereas in higher education, people are considering that the autumn term may not happen. I don't know the expected likelyhood and probably just worst case contingency planning. But september is not a cert.
. The exit strategies being developped(sic) in France, Germany and Italy all seem to be based on progressively less cases rather than progessiviely(sic) more.
Linky?
It isn't trying to disprove immunity, it is simply we don't know if it exists long term for coronaviruses.
Plus when you include the ability of viruses to mutate and change the chances could be high.
it is basic virology and immunology sadly. And it is a reality we might have to face
Yes I find it baffling people seem keen to disprove immunity..
Honestly, think about the ramifications of there being no immunity…..
Anti Vaxxers aren't famed for their thinking. 🙂
Psst… people do know that past viruses have had to be eradicated by containment, because herd immunity didn’t/wouldn’t happen? Acting as if herd immunity achieved by infection is the only way out of this would be a pretty stupid move. The most likely way out is containment via actively giving contact workers immunity (in either of the ways Tired and others have explained) followed by a wider active immunisation programme, and/or using drugs to prevent the worse symptoms for those infected. But, there is always a chance with a novel virus that only by containing and starving the virus of new hosts can we ‘beat’ it, and we should perhaps be considering that, and the very unusual steps that might require (South Korea).
Regarding the chart quoted above. I was speaking to a Danish guy yesterday and he said that blood was being tested from donors and it was showing 2.5% had evidence of coronavirus which is on the higher end of the scale
Edukator
infected a month or so later so 20 000. And that’s just for 2.7% infected.
2.7% infected. Death rate the imperial college are working on is about 0.5%(it's variable depending on location but we'll go with that)
So
66m in the uk
2.7% = 1.782m.
1.782m/200 = 8910.
so with a 2-2.5ish week lag the modelling seems fairly accurate, unfortunately.
It isn’t trying to disprove immunity, it is simply we don’t know if it exists long term for coronaviruses.
Plus when you include the ability of viruses to mutate and change the chances could be high.
it is basic virology and immunology sadly. And it is a reality we might have to face
This thing mutates slower than flu and is half as complex. All the credible opinion I've seen is that there will very likely be a vaccine. The problem is it's over 1 year away, by which time humanity will have done most of the job the old fashioned way.
Regarding the chart quoted above. I was speaking to a Danish guy yesterday and he said that blood was being tested from donors and it was showing 2.5% had evidence of coronavirus which is on the higher end of the scale
Yup, we could be in for a pleasant surprise, couldn't we.
The problem is it’s over 1 year away
That’s a maybe, not a fact. I’ve read several times Sep/Oct it very unlikely, but not impossible. Jan/Feb most likely. One to two years pessimistic. Never or several years still a possibility.
A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I’d imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.
And we’re all only in the first month of this… Many months to go.
Optimistic take:
given that its a week out of date... italy at 10% and spain at 15% while still on the increase half of their sombrero (they may now be at the peak about now). meaning 20 - 30% at least by the end of their sombrero.
Assume this happens again in the autumn as per the imperial model, that gets 40 to 60% infected and recovered, which (by the Spain numbers) comes up to the point where the "herd immunity" actually works, as there aren't enough susceptible people for sick people to infect.
kelvin
The most likely way out is containment
The question I have is is containment even possible though? It's rife, Places like China and tbh even South Korea I'm fairly suspicious of their reported numbers, but even if they are true, their methods are unlikely to widely adopted in the 'west'.
That's before we even get to countries like India, chances do they even have of containing it, numbers of 5,480 cases and 164 deaths in india? Aye sure...
So do we lock our borders while it rips through these countries?
Talk of exit strategies above, but how can 'a' country have an exit strategy that doesn't involve long term isolation of an entire nation?
If there's an exit strategy it needs to be a worldwide exit strategy surely, or it's just pissing against the wind lin lieu of long term isolation(variable) and completely locking down it's borders? while waiting for a vaccine.
Optimistic take:
given that its a week out of date… italy at 10% and spain at 15% while still on the increase half of their sombrero (they may now be at the peak about now). meaning 20 – 30% at least by the end of their sombrero.
Assume this happens again in the autumn as per the imperial model, that gets 40 to 60% infected and recovered, which (by the Spain numbers) comes up to the point where the “herd immunity” actually works, as there aren’t enough susceptible people for sick people to infect.
...and if even 25pc of people have resistance that R0 still drops helpfully. We're not hoping for perfection, we just don't want a gazzilion people turning up at hospital on the same day.
That’s a maybe, not a fact. I’ve read several times Sep/Oct it very unlikely, but not impossible. Jan/Feb most likely. One to two years pessimistic. Never or several years still a possibility.
Linky to the source of the Sep/Oct date.
The only reason flu changes so much is because it's genome is segmented so the virus undergoes reassortment.
I hope there is a vaccine, but it has to be against a stable target antigen and also must not cause any auto immune response.
the antibody tests so far performed have shown a level of cross reactivity with existing known strains but these are non neutralising at present it seems. Plus it would have to be a long lasting response rather than a short term one as this thing seems likely to be hanging around for a while
The question I have is containment even possible though? It’s rife, Places like China and tbh even South Korea I’m fairly suspicious of their reported numbers, but even if they are true, their methods are unlikely to widly adopted in the ‘west’.
That’s before we even get to countries like India, chances do they even have of containing it, number of 5,480 cases and 164 deaths in india? Aye sure…
So do we lock our borders while it rips through these countries?
Talk of exist strategies above, but how can ‘a’ country have an exist strategy here that doesn’t involve long term isolation of the entire nation?
If there’s an exist strategy it needs to be worldwide.
This.
I do trust South Korea's numbers (they had very localised epidemics that they could keep a grip on.) But now what? They build a Trumpesque wall and wait for 12-24 months until the rest of the world gets our CV resistance?
Plus it would have to be a long lasting response rather than a short term one as this thing seems likely to be hanging around for a while
I'm not sure it would.
If you had to inject everyone every three months that would still be better than people dying and closing the entire world down.
Goods can cross borders without mass movement of people.
International travel will be heavily restricted for some time to come, no matter what path we take.
Wife’s Nursing team is currently at 30% infection rates, with 10% being hospitalised (bare in mind it’s a team of 10, not thousands).
That’s about the percentage rate of 3% needing hospitalised even for 1000s , it’s a shitty situation though and using ppe can hopefully help reduce it further.
What sort of accuracy is required for a good standard, or useful standard of test?
It depends upon how many people have caught it in the population as well as how accurate it is. A 95% accurate test with 3% of the population having the antibody would mean just over 60% of those testing positive for the antibody will not have it. The equivalent number of a 99% test would be 25%.
Thanks mefty, yes I follow those figures. I guess in part, what I’m wondering is how useful is a test which is say 80% accurate, when there are more false positives than true positives? And how accurate are the tests we are buying/using. I get the impression from the way they talk about the available tests, that they are not as accurate as usual/desired.
…and if even 25pc of people have resistance that R0 still drops helpfully. We’re not hoping for perfection, we just don’t want a gazzilion people turning up at hospital on the same day.
and in my layman's understanding; dropping the R0 and having a small manageable number show up each day for the long term future at A+E for their ventilator is a better solution than 3% of the country showing up in an ambulance on the same day needing to be given the cure when there is one available.
seosamh77
SubscriberYes I find it baffling people seem keen to disprove immunity..
Honestly, think about the ramifications of there being no immunity…..
I don't think anyone's "keen to disprove immunity". But if it's not a useful factor- ie if immunity gained from infection is too short to be useful- then it's absolutely essential that we know that as quickly as is possible. Unfortunately, right now it's not a knowable thing, but some people still want to hitch the cart to it in the hope that it works.
Re herd immunity the basic issue is knowing the difference between "immunity is growing in the community"- which it is "immunity has grown in the community to the point that it's making a useful difference"- which it certainly hasn't- and "we have attained herd immunity" which we are absolutely miles from.
(I am not a doctor, but this stuff is obvious- or should be)
Thanks mefty, yes I follow those figures. I guess in part, what I’m wondering is how useful is a test which is say 80% accurate, when there are more false positives than true positives
I can't resist guessing:
I reckon for for the antibody test false positives are a disaster.
An antibody test that gave false negatives would be fine. Even if it was was large number. As long as you get a positive that person can get on with their life and they might be a key worker. The fact you missed some (even 50pc) doesn't render it useless.
Latest figures for UK reported on BBC.
6483 (England) + 366 (Scotland) + 245 (Wales) + 78 (NI) = 7172
1013 up from yesterday, 16%.
We seem to be following the Spanish course on death toll, not the Italian one.
I reckon for for the antibody test false positives are a disaster.
An antibody test that gave false negatives would be fine. Even if it was was large number. As long as you get a positive that person can get on with their life and they might be a key worker. The fact you missed some (even 50pc) doesn’t render it useless.
I’m getting myself all befuddled. I was thinking positive and negative for illness. But, similarly I was thinking people falsely being told they do not have Covid19 when they are infectious would be hugely problematical. I’d be interested to know how this works in reality.
I don’t think anyone’s “keen to disprove immunity”. But if it’s not a useful factor- ie if immunity gained from infection is too short to be useful- then it’s absolutely essential that we know that as quickly as is possible.
Re herd immunity the basic issue is knowing the difference between “immunity is growing in the community”- which it probably is, but we don’t really know- “immunity has grown in the community to the point that it’s making a useful difference”- which it certainly hasn’t- and “we have attained herd immunity” which we are absolutely miles from.
What else can they do? You can't just not develop a vaccine because a few nutters on an cycling forum don't believe immunity will last very long!
Equally in the time before a vaccine is developed some people *will* catch CV. ...and when they do they will probably get some kind of resistance.
In the long run the world *will* end up with herd immunity.
What percentage of people gain resistance from catching it and what percentage of people will develop resistance from a vaccine will depend entirely on how long a vaccine takes to release in large numbers and how fast the disease spreads.
I’m getting myself all befuddled. I was thinking positive and negative for illness. But, similarly I was thinking people falsely being told they do not have Covid19 when they are infectious would be hugely problematical. I’d be interested to know how this works in reality.
In reality the anti-gen test biases toward false negatives. The disadvantage of that seems to be that they often have to test symptomatic people a couple of times to get a positive which wastes kit.
(Or so I heard on the news.)
Here is an article that explains the antibody test percentage accuracy thing - be they false positives or negatives:
https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-far-away-are-immunity-passports/
Do the UK figures now include care homes like the French ones or is it still just hospital deaths? That added about 50% to some days in France and significantly raised the overall curve.
The herd approach fans should take a look at the "Healthcare workers - how you feeling..." thread.
It's not just the fatalities we should be concerned about it's the 55-55% that survive intensive care. Kidney failure, heart conditions, neurologiacal consequences. Dealing with the survivors is going to be as tragic as the losses for some. When a nurse refuses to be ventilated if she gets that bad there's a message in there for all of us.
I'd like to inform the person who adds 'sic' when quoting things I've written with typos/spelling errors that I no longer have to worry about how good or bad my English is so I don't.
@outofbreath a few nutters?
wind your neck in mate, no one has suggested not developing a vaccine just that there are inherent risks and significant challenges to be overcome.
a palliative drug is the fastest option to reduce the damage with a hopeful vaccine coming along mid 2021 who knows though vaccine research is always a challenge.
I don't think anyone advocates unrestrained transmission in an attempt to 'get herd immunity' rather that herd immunity will occur. By one means or another.
We are all fans of herd immunity.
No one is a fan of killing hundreds of thousands of people to achieve it. Can you please stop that assertion.
Matt
Natural herd immunity is a solution to nothing but people are speaking like it is.
The herd approach fans should take a look at the “Healthcare workers – how you feeling…” thread.
They’d probably feel a lot better if there was a vaccine. Which is what I’m seeing from those talking about Herd Immunity as an exit strategy on this thread.
Do the UK figures now include care homes like the French ones or is it still just hospital deaths? That added about 50% to some days in France and significantly raised the overall curve.
The Scottish figures have included Care Homes, but with a lag over the weekends. The new Scottish figures will also now include (on a weekly basis ATM) cases where CV19 has been recorded as a "contributory cause". I can see the value in these, but I'm wary that they perhaps over-estimate. We know that the majority of folk test negative - even though they have enough of the symptoms to pass the hurdle for testing in the first place. We're now asking GPs to determine whether or not CV19 was a contributory cause, without any testing of the deceased (and I can see why we don't want to "waste" testing on those already passed away).
Question for the room: What is the likelihood of 111 giving a correct diagnosis over the phone (unlikely to be a thermometer present in the house it was given to).
Reason for asking, it's my father in law, he lives alone, has bladder cancer (under control at the moment), heart has had a quad bipass and has been spiking in heart rates over the last year, believed fixed at the last count with a minor surgery. Essentially he's in his 70's pretty strong still and aside from dodgy joints which limit his walking.
My expectation that even with a hint of symptoms they will ask him to self isolate just to be on the safe side.
He's being sent some anti-biotics as well which given we have no treatments as yet I don't understand. Wife spoke to him for a while and he wasn't coughing, but I guess isn't feeling 100% hence the call to 111 in the first place. He's been limiting trips out and wearing gloves etc, but it's possible he has come into contact with someone carrying it, or one of many other things around that would impact a 76ish year old.
Essentially just trying to work out how bad this may or may not be, any expert information?
Thanks torsoinalake, that was interesting and was along the lines of what I have been thinking.
outofbreath
MemberWhat else can they do? You can’t just not develop a vaccine because a few nutters on an cycling forum don’t believe immunity will last very long!
Equally in the time before a vaccine is developed some people *will* catch CV. …and when they do they will probably get some kind of resistance.
In the long run the world *will* end up with herd immunity.
OK, I really think you just need to reread my post, everything I said was about immunity through infection and survival, I said nothing at all about vaccines.
The problem with attaining herd immunity via that route is maths, basically. We don't know how long survivors will gain immunity for, or how reliably. But it needs to be very long and very reliable, it's the only way it works- because the rate of infection has to be kept low to avoid overwhelming hospitals, which makes the volume of survivors low. So the rate of loss or failure of immunity needs to be even lower so that the level of immunity can rise at all, let alone rise to the levels required, otherwise we're basing all our hopes on filling a bowl that leaks faster than we can fill it. Even the most optimistic infection rate figures still rely on a long and strong immunity- a big bowl that doesn't leak much.
It is absolutely NOT a given that sooner or later we attain herd immunity. I'm sorry if this is something that's important for you to believe, but it's not true. It may not be mathematically possible for it to happen naturally, and finding a vaccine is not certain. Of course we hope for it and work for it.
But if you can’t develop a vaccine then that just leaves you with eradication. Possible worldwide? Think not.
Thanks for the replies, Scotroutes and mrmonkfinger.
We are all fans of herd immunity.
I'm not, Matt, I'd rather go for erradication.
In the long run the world *may* end up with herd immunity. We have had to defeat lots of viruses without that luxury before. There is not enough yet known about this virus to adopt any strategy that is depending on herd immunity as the only way forward, it is just one of many possible routes. The word *will* cannot be used yet.
Not sure about deaths outside hospital but if they’ve been in contact with a health care professional then it’ll be down as recent confirmed or suspected covid. So I’d say yes but might be a day or two longer than a hospital death before it appears on the stats.
When a nurse refuses to be ventilated if she gets that bad there’s a message in there for all of us.
Not really as it’s anecdotal many people pick not go through various treatments for personal reasons or medical.
Toby1 I’ll reread your post but any feedback I give will be only an opinion not medical advice.
Defeat is a strong word for how badly we would lose trying to 'win' that way.
the most dangerous viruses took am awful lot of people before they were controlled. Smallpox was an awful disease, measles which can be controlled is now having a come back.
and ask an Indian with virus knowledge what would happen if yellow fever got into the sub continent.
you don't defeat viruses you only mitigate their affects
I'm with you there edukator.
Herd immunity isn't a strategy, unless you call doing nothing a strategy.
Erradication could have been an option if the West had acted promptly, still my preference though. Now it looks like a long period of containment before we reach either eradication, vaccine or effective treatment.
Mitigating is probably the wrong word as well. That suggests to me reducing the symptoms and impact with drugs and treatment, rather than stopping people catching it.
Defeat could mean lots of things, agreed, I was suggesting “controlled” or “eradicated” might be what has to happen, I suppose, rather than assuming that anti-bodies *will* save us (although that is still the most likely route, if the scientists pull it off).
They build a Trumpesque wall and wait for 12-24 months until the rest of the world gets our CV resistance?
Testing everyone on the way in is a viable option.
I don’t think anyone advocates unrestrained transmission in an attempt to ‘get herd immunity’ rather that herd immunity will occur. By one means or another.
The seriousness of the infection (permanent lung damage in many cases) suggests to me that this is not a good idea. The "most people had it without symptoms" brigade has gone very quiet over the last week.
@kelvin I understand, I used mitigation in terms of reducing the overall disease burden across a population, not the affect of the disease on an individual.
as someone just said the extent of the potential long term damage means we have to find a cure, whether that is a palliative drug or vaccine cure it is critical. Simply because our disease surveillance worldwide is not good enough to eradicate this, smallpox was the last one eradicated and that required a damn good vaccine and massive surveillance
Toby1 it won’t be an accurate diagnosis and would also depend if they spoke to a clinician. As they’ve been prescribed antibiotics that suggests they have. He’d be given them based on symptoms there must have been enough to prescribe them. He should have been given worsening advice on what to do.
Edit too slow
smallpox was the last one eradicated and that required a damn good vaccine and massive surveillance
Which is probably the way this will have to go
Mrs Inkster is in Kenya at the moment, has been for a while, looking after her very old and not very well father.
It's been incredible to see how the government there and in some other African states has acted quickly and decisively in confronting the pandemic.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
Then they made everyone flying into the country go into forced 14 day quarantine either in a hotel at their own expense or a government centre. I'm watching planes flying in to Manchester Airport as I type this.
A politician flying in from Germany gave the quarantine the slip but they caught up with him and forced him into 14 days isolation, when he came out of isolation a couple of days ago they arrested him. I think they sanctioned a religious leader similarly. (Are you listening Nicola Surgeon?)
They've installed hand washing stations at bus stops. Everyone is wearing face masks.
If you said the words 'herd immunity' to anyone in Kenya they'd think you were talking about cattle, not human beings. If you said it too loudly they might even lock you up.
When I worked in West Africa a few years ago they had Ebola going on and there was a lot of controls at airports and in cities and certain borders were closed etc. They have a cultural memory of what serious infectious diseases can do that we don't anymore, hence we have wacko anti-vaxxers and many people were treating CV-19 as a bit of a laugh. We got complacent.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
That is good to hear.
Maybe they looked at Europe and thought **** that
hence we have wacko anti-vaxxers and many people were treating CV-19 as a bit of a laugh. We got complacent.
I’ve seen an increasing number of people share “it’s a hoax” links on ****book.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
Then they made everyone flying into the country go into forced 14 day quarantine either in a hotel at their own expense or a government centre.
This is essentially what I was saying we should do in late January/early February. However, I understand it would have been extremely difficult for the government to have gone in so strongly that early. I guess we are where we are now, but I don’t see any easy transition out of the current ’lockdown‘ and certainly nothing as optimistic as that tweet from that professor above. As to the implications of different countries being in such vastly different positions, I cannot picture how the next couple of years will pan out Worldwide.
Karol Sikora raises some good point, an exit strategy needs to be planned careful & should be well thought through, in a way that the initial handling of the crisis wasnt.
Theres a balance between being optimistic & offering false hope though
I'll say it again - Karol Sikora is a medical oncologist, he irradiates tumours as his day job. His company charges the NHS for the privilege. He has had dodgy business with the Republican Party and Libyan Government under Gadaffi (he wasn't too optimistic in his prognosis for the Lockerbie bomber). He has no more expertise on this subject than your GP.
If you want the voice of optimism, you'd be as well following a local yoga teacher.
Watching the news here I get the impression were already being briefed for the end of confinement. Poeple are getting used to the idea that going out will mean wearing a mask and having some kind of app on our phones. Businesses are preparing for the long haul with drives, deliveries, reorganisation of stores to flow people though - as little contact as possible. Institutions have already been shifted on-line to a large extent and that trend is being accelerated. The confinement time is being used reduce the risk of infection when people go out again and make sure that cases can be more easily traced when the occur.
They're also showing us what the biggest headaches are. For example: a lot of key workers on low salaries live in 93 but work in 75, and don't have a car. Public transport is a contact point it's hard to avoid. In the same department the high population density is an issue: hundreds if not thousands of people in buildings with small lifts and narrow stair cases who can't avoid close proximity. It's an area where the virus is resisting the confinement measures, the numbers are still bad.
Karol Sikora raises some good point, an exit strategy needs to be planned careful & should be well thought through, in a way that the initial handling of the crisis wasnt.
Theres a balance between being optimistic & offering false hope though
While his dates may be optimistic/overly hopeful, there is at least a staggered strategy. Which is better than the two alternatives of
1) We all sit inside for 18 months dying of cancer, starvation and rickets until there is a vaccine
2) Boris announces "business as usual, as you were" on some random date.
Which is better than the two alternatives of
1) We all sit inside for 18 months dying of cancer, starvation and rickets until there is a vaccine
2) Boris announces “business as usual, as you were” on some random date.
Luckily you’ve just made those up.
Gauss 1777,
Agree it would have been extremely difficult to implement a lockdown strategy here in late Jan, early Feb owing to our complacency and general decadence. It would have been the right thing to do though.
What I find the most shocking is the complete lack of understanding on the part of all our politicians and media in relation to the threat. The only politician I have seen sounding the alarm is Rory Stewart, and that wasn't until early March. I watched Sunak give his budget speech and thought it utterly meaningless in the face of what was about to happen, or rather was actually happening but was being ignored.
The only media outlet I saw saw sounding the alarm was...... well none of them actually.
I went to that Black Swan guy, Nicolas Nassim Taleb, (the guy who called out the 2008 financial crisis so accurately in the book he published early 2007). He's a hedge fund manager specialising in risk and had been warning of the dangers of a pandemic over the last few years, the Singapore gov't invited him over a couple of years back to advise them about the dangers of a potential outbreak. (Singapore is handling the crisis as well as anyone.)
His angle was that we don't know what this virus is so the only avenue to take is to be super cautious. He also lays the blame with governments seeking to protect the airline industry (protecting big business) rather than having the guts to stop international traavel. He thinks the UK government is a bunch of morons with the course they have taken.
A lot of Africa has given up on Europe and the West as a model for progress and looks more to Singapore and South Korea as examples to learn from, as those countries were pretty impoverished after WW2 and have excelled since. Rwanda took the lead in this, turning away from Europe after the genocide, doing away with any Franco Belgian influence, ceasing to teach or use French and expelling any French institutions. I can tell you from experience that Kenya doesn't give a toss about the UK either.
Luckily you’ve just made those up.
very true, but those two basic ideas are the two extremes that are floating around on here, in the press, and so on. (all from people equally as unqualified as me)
We are all fans of herd immunity.
I am, but only if the immunity is conferred by vaccination! You don't want this infection. You don't want your parent's to have this infection. You do want them to have immunity to this by vaccination.
I’ve seen an increasing number of people share “it’s a hoax” links on ****book.
Nothing to say other than Social Media.
Waiting for a vaccine is a bit of a gamble, hopefully one will come along, but how long can we economically sustain lockdown for?
Other option would be to hugely ramp up testing at a national level & track, trace & isolate until we've eradicated it .
Korea & others on that track, Germany seem most well placed in Europe .
It would be great to see at a global level, but bolsanaro etc make it impossible.
So to make it work borders will have to shut, if EU can get act together then that could be a great example, but nationalists terrified of losing sovereignty would hinder that greatly, too shortsighted to see past the benefits.
A vaccine may come along soon, but it can't be the only option
Edit: can also hope that treatment protocols improve and maybe trump's hyroxychloroquine will save us🤯, could you imagine how insufferable he'd be if it did!
It’s been incredible to see how the government there and in some other African states has acted quickly and decisively in confronting the pandemic.
They instituted a lockdown when cases (not deaths) were in single figures.
Then they made everyone flying into the country go into forced 14 day quarantine either in a hotel at their own expense or a
I don't think you can compare the African response with say the British one. Nairobi handles less than 8 mil passengers a year. Heathrow alone over 80 mil. Different circumstances require different approaches.
Public transport is a contact point it’s hard to avoid
Our hossie is on top of a big hill (well it isn't that big but if you're a non cyclist it's big)
Anyway a local cycling advocacy groups put out an appeal for unused electric bikes to lend to hospital staff and there was a big take-up
So some problems are not insurmountable, at least when tackled at a social rather than government level.
What I find the most shocking is the complete lack of understanding on the part of all our politicians and media in relation to the threat.
I find it close to unbelievable that considering the number of experts they had, that they didn’t cordon off Downing Street. That they still had journalists there, sitting next to each other, etc, etc. Considering the importance of Johnson, the other ministers and top experts, I’d have expected them to seal themselves off, with practises in place to prevent contamination.
I don’t think you can compare the African response with say the British one.
Even more so if the news reports are right on how it’s policed.
I find it close to unbelievable that considering the number of experts they had, that they didn’t cordon off Downing Street.
With some sort of barrier?
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-long-term-plan
This is a good article that covers a lot of the ground discussed in the last however many pages