Forum menu
Our media’s fixation on painting the situation we’re in as a ‘war’ as if brave fighters can somehow ‘defeat’ the virus when they get it, as per Raab on Johnson.
yeah the whole 'compare everything to a war' analogy just seems so trite
It also means that if Johnson doesnt shrug it off & is back to his old wiffle waffle self by next wednsday, then somehow he isnt a fighter after all
I just don't understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
In fairness – Matt Hancock spoke more about targets than promises
The targets were for the antigen test
Hancock was quite specific about the antibody kits
https://metro.co.uk/video/hancock-weve-bought-3-5-million-antibody-tests-2137170/?ito=vjs-link
It also means that if Johnson doesnt shrug it off & is back to his old wiffle waffle self by next wednsday, then somehow he isnt a fighter after all
Yep, I thought the whole 'Boris is a fighter' thing and will definitely be okay was misguided. The reality is that he's someone who's body is trying to fend off a viral illness and whether he grits his teeth or not will make very little difference. I very much hope he comes through this regardless of his politics and character, but if he does it'll be down to a combination of physiological and other factors, plus the very best care that the NHS can provide rather than because he's some sort of tough guy.
Marina Hyde in yesterday's Guardian sums it up well:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/07/horror-coronavirus-real-imaginary-war-britain
I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
Because they had an actual lock down, we’re reducing/slowing contact and spread, not trying to stop it completely. They attempted (still too early to say succeeded) to isolate people so that the virus could not find any new hosts and died off… “we” decided that we couldn’t take the measures required for that (probably true) so haven’t even tried.
I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
they locked people in their houses for 2 months.
he’s some sort of tough guy
It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.
There will always be people cherry picking a view that matches their previous views on Boris. Rough and tumble Boris with the jolly japes, cutting through the red tape and sticking it to the establishment, he can do anything. He's the greatest golfer you know, once shot five successive hole-in-ones. He is an international concert standard pianist, didn't you know? Plus, when he was young, he was a champion 100m sprinter, and he has obtained four PhDs. Or was that Kim Jong Un? I forget now.
It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.
Like who and what would they do differently ?
Another update from Stockholm...
Life goes on. I know people in retail that are seeing a huge drop in customers and that is not really surprising as people get more used to both social distancing (already a Swedish practice, just now a little bit more distance) and the fact that they should be at home unless they have to be.
However, people are still meeting each other and I have found out that some gyms have reopened, which I find really bizarre. GF and I are sticking to running the local trails and trying to stay away from other people but, on the way back two days ago, saw a group of about 15 people going out for a group run.
I'm watching the stats with a combination of interest and fear, hoping that they stay low and the trust that our prime minister has placed in us will not be misplaced. Stockholm for sure seems to be an outlier, people just don't seem to get it, maybe more the younger generation that see themselves as low risk or more able to survive it. We've been asked to thinking like responsible adults and I cannot say for sure that, like the UK, a few people will not invalidate that theory.
Like who and what would they do differently ?
Not go one TV announcing that you're shaking everyone's hands, when you're aware that thousands of people had already died from a virus that is transmitted in such a way?. Just a thought.
Optimistic: Primary epidemic in the UK will be over by July. Controls will be in place over the Summer Holidays. Staged return to some semblance of normality during that six week period. Can't see much further or clearer than that. I'd expect some sort of travel restrictions over the summer too (International), so hope for nice weather. BTW these are only my opinions. I make no recommendations, merely provide analysis.
Even more optimistic - I'll be back on the trike training for the national 12hr 😀 . Well I can dream. Started a course of prophylactic antibiotics to protect from potential lung pneumonia (COVID DAY13/14 now). Felt a bit better yesterday and not so light-headed. A little breathless up and down the stairs, but small steps. Son1 shook it off easier than a cold!
What I’m trying to do is live, as much as I can, in the now – or at least the next week or so.
I've had two major injuries in the last 5 years and I've spent months "Focusing on what I can do rather than dwelling on what I can't " Yes, it's the right approach, but I'm afraid I'm sick of it. I was due a bloody summer of fun. I feel I've done my fair share of stiff upper lip and I want to stamp my feet and whine a bit. (I'm also aware that other people are really suffering in horrific and tragic ways over this, not just missing fun with their family.)
Until a treatment is available we’re going to have periods of lock down interrupted by periods of relative freedom. This isn’t pessimistic, and pretending that it’s not going to be this isn’t optimism it’s fairystories.
Well a cheap and plentiful antibody test would free a fair few people up and it was looking like that would be much quicker than a treatment, less so now.
they locked people in their houses for 2 months.
Yes, and as of last week being 'out of lockdown' meant being allowed to leave the house for 2 hours to go shopping. I strongly suspect what's being reported as the 'end of lockdown' is still pretty draconian. Plus they lie about the numbers for flu, why wouldn't they lie about their numbers for CV?
So in order to cheer myself up a bit... I can carry a kayak 400m from my front door to water. I'm 100pc sure me doing that alone is kosher because it would be exercise, I'd paddle at pace and not faff around. So far so good. What about Family Kayaking with 4yo and 7yo? The 4yo will be in my boat but not be reliably paddling. He'll be out in the fresh air and active, but he won't be strictly exercising. The 7yo will be paddling her own boat, but instead of 'pressing on' there will be much pottering about, look at water vole holes, that sort of stuff. Frankly I think that's as much exercise as a family walk or cycle ride which also involves a lot of top start. (Or dog walking which seems to involve a lot of standing around). Of course family kayaking is still exercise for the mind. How far does the panel think I can legitimately take the Kayaking?
Of course I'm pretty sure that kayaking won't *look* like exercise to my neighbours so that perhaps stops it stone dead, but if this is going on over the entire summer what my neighbours think will be less important than my sanity.
Because they had an actual lock down, we’re reducing/slowing contact and spread, not trying to stop it completely.
I rode through Harrogate yesterday afternoon, traffic wasn't vastly different from any other weekday. Was everyone a key worker? Not bloody likely, given the number of families and amount of grey hair that I could see, mixed in with your typical obese David Brent taking his X5 out "for a spin".
Coronavirus was already going to thin out the Honda-driving population in Harrogate.
The police have pretty much given up enforcing the lockdown in North Yorkshire and are targeting the tiny fraction of people driving or riding in beauty spots (I agree, they should be at home but the actual risk of infection spread is minimal) and ignoring the gangs of kids riding up and down the Nidderdale Greenway, which is often busy with other cyclists and walkers at the best of times.
This sucks. Effective house arrest for months.
If you have a road bike, use it. The roads are amazingly quiet, and there's very little chance of spreading or catching anything while riding empty roads.
Optimistic: Primary epidemic in the UK will be over by July. Controls will be in place over the Summer Holidays. Staged return to some semblance of normality during that six week period. Can’t see much further or clearer than that. I’d expect some sort of travel restrictions over the summer too (International), so hope for nice weather. BTW these are only my opinions. I make no recommendations, merely provide analysis.
Same conclusion here
Italy 33000 (29400 to 37400) deaths
Also getting a similar number from my own modelling, although this doesnt account for any secondary inpact from when restrictions are relaxed.
Regarding summer holidays I noticed this morning that FCO advice has changed to an indefinite travel restriction
The other thing with framing this as a 'war' is that it changes the discussion from it being a disgrace that doctors, nurses and other frontline staff are dying doing their jobs, to it being acceptable because that's what happens in war. Now let's all clap.
Wtf Stockholm.
Another update from Stockholm…
Sorry, I've not been following this thread so don't know what's already been covered, but Sweden (& Brazil) are following a "Herd Immunity" approach; the idea seems to be that if enough people showing mild or no symptoms infect a large proportion of others who go on to develop mild or no symptoms then the "herd immunity" will rise to a point where the virus no longer becomes viable; hospital admissions are suppose to be manageable. There's a fair amount about herd immunity on the net (along with a fair bit of opinion that Sweden is heading for a catastrophe.
he’s some sort of tough guy
It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.
Can't stand the man and think that we're 3 months behind the curve because he wasn't paying attention but his popularity is really surging. I'm afraid that I'm also rapidly becoming a cynical old git and even got to the point of wondering whether it wasn't all stage managed to boost his popularity and cover over the balls up (admitted to hospital "as a precaution", admitted to ICU "as a precaution" & and I'm sure I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in "good spirits" which isn't the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU). The whole things does now seem to be on a war footing (along with propaganda) and I think Boris sees himself as a sort of Churchill figure. I'm quite possibly totally wrong though.
I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.
they locked people in their houses for 2 months.
They're also a controlling communist state that's "liberal" with the truth and forced the doctor who originally highlighted Covid19 to sign a confession admitting that he was lying (he subsequently died).
China may well have everything under control now but equally we need to be careful at taking what they say at face value (I'd also be interested to to know what they've been up to in Hong Kong during the last few months).
The Downing Street press release have been bizarre almost patronising like you'd speak to a small child. Into hospital in the early evening as a 'precaution', into ICU as a 'precaution', in 'high spirits' on oxygen, 'strong constitution', 'played rugby'. 'fighter'. Plz. I can handle bad news.
Sorry, I’ve not been following this thread so don’t know what’s already been covered, but Sweden (& Brazil) are following a “Herd Immunity” approach; the idea being that if enough people showing mild or no symptoms infect a large proportion of others who go on to develop mild or no symptoms then the “herd immunity” will rise to a point where the virus no longer becomes viable. There’s a fair amount about herd immunity on the net (along with a fair bit of opinion that Sweden is heading for a catastrophe.
This was the UK approach at first but it proved to be politically unpalatable and practically unviable because we didn't have the NHS capacity to deal with it.
The inconvenient truth is a viable vaccine may be years away so herd immunity might be the only solution unless we want to spend years in lock-down, I do wonder if we can ever eradicate it completely just by locking down everyone all over the world. After all, it started when 3 people in a wet market in China caught it and 6 months later 1.4 million people have it and 80k are dead.
Maybe Sweden has a lot more headroom in their Healthcare system.
What's the real 'exit strategy'? eradicate it from the UK, maybe? China and Korea might just do it, but it just takes a single case, someone arriving on ship / plane or riding a Donkey and a few months later we're back here.
I remember back 3 weeks ago, no one in Government said "We're going into lock-down until it's been eradicated" they said "We're going to flatten the curve until the NHS can cope with it" There's something like 10k extra bed now in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few weeks, when the numbers fall enough they announce they're reopening the schools, shops, pubs etc and we go back to a "people with symptoms should self-isolate" standing. Especially if the anti-body tests project has failed.
I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in “good spirits” which isn’t the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU
4 litres that’s pretty normal for an ICU and yes “Good Spirits” or “stable” which they’ve also used is fairly normal talk.
This was the UK approach at first but it proved to be politically unpalatable and practically unviable because we didn’t have the NHS capacity to deal with it.
No it wasn’t the plans have always been available to view, they also made it clear in media reports. They wanted to control the spread the best they could then when numbers start to rise perform a lockdown that would be reviewed weekly. This has been discussed about 120 pages back.
Interesting comment in the Guardian saying this isn't a war, there's no enemy to fight. Instead, we have to look after each other and care for the sick - this is love, not war.
I like that thought.
Also, and this is only me trying to understand stuff my Wife was saying (Nurse)
"ITU beds" data should be taken with a pinch of salt. ITU wards are reasonably rare, but there's nothing 'that' fancy about ITU beds, mostly the same equipment as normal ward beds with 1-to-1 nursing and of course, the famous Ventilator.
If you install one of the new striped down Ventilators they're producing onto a normal ward bed and a screen to separate it, it's probably good enough to care for a Covid patient, but is it an ITU bed? I supposed that depends on who's counting.
Lockdown will most likely be relaxed in degrees according to the evidence base, maybe even re-tightened if hospital admissions get out of control again. Like a dance. I'd hope that pubs were one of the last priorities.
Sweden (& Brazil) are following a “Herd Immunity” approach
Every nation in the world is following a herd immunity approach. The only difference is how they're slowing down the number of casualties so the hospitals can cope. Sweden are adopting a voluntary approach, everywhere else is making more formal restrictions. Of course if the news today is true China now have less restrictions than Sweden and a population with no resistance.
No it wasn’t the plans have always been available to view, they also made it clear in media reports. They wanted to control the spread the best they could then when numbers start to rise perform a lockdown that would be reviewed weekly. This has been discussed about 120 pages back.
+1
China may well have everything under control now but equally we need to be careful at taking what they say at face value
...and if it's true they no longer have restrictions what happens the first time a jet load of people from New York or Lombardy turns up? The virus will kick off again. I suspect there *are* restrictions and our press aren't properly reporting them. That was certainly the case last week when we were told the lock down was over in China - and then on the same day a reporter was saying they were allowed out for 2 hours a day to go shopping.
I’d hope that pubs were one of the last priorities.
What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
vaccine may be years away so herd immunity might be the only solution
A vaccine is just a (really really good) way to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is still the end goal.
Really good article here about scientific advice recived by government from SAGE
but it very curiosly omits to mention the 3rd group that feeds into SAGE- SPI-B the behavioural scientists
SAGE relies on external science advice and on advice from expert groups. During COVID-19 this includes the:
New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG)
Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) (Department for Health and Social Care)
Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B)
These groups consider the scientific evidence and feed in their consensus conclusions to SAGE.
also Fergusson was on C4 saying 400,000 could die in mid feb
(sorry Daily Fail link)
What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
Should be fine provided you are simultaneously exercising and purchasing groceries.
Ahhhh, the pub.....
We walk past our local on our daily excercise.
I give it a little pat and tell it Daddy will be back soon....
4 litres that’s pretty normal for an ICU
4 l/min ?
Yeah 4 litres a minute.
A vaccine is just a (really really good) way to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is still the end goal.
we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?
I know we can get to a reasonable level of protetcing the vulnerabe with annual vaccination b4 flu season, but 1000s an still die
If we get CV19 deaths down to 17,000 per year (same as flu) we might take that as an acceptable compromise.
I guess there would be a fair amount of overlap too. It wouldn't be 17,000 additional deaths.
My statistics is far from strong. I have been wondering about mass testing and have a feeling for the problems that might result from a large number of false positives and (likely worse?) false negatives. What sort of accuracy is required for a good standard, or useful standard of test?
If 'natural' herd immunity is the solution then what's the problem? Or to put it another way, if it's the means then what's the end? If the end is to stop people getting infected and dying how is a means that requires people to get infected and die appropriate? Burn the village to save the village?
Mass vaccination is a means to the end of eradicating and/or preventing an epidemic/pandemic. Herd immunity is just a conceptual middle man in that context. It's not the end goal.
we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?
Corona mutates about 10 times slower than flu (from the last thing I read on it).
The annual "freshers flu" every october at universities gives an idea about how good herd immunity is at protecting you from your local flu/cold, and how bad it is at protecting unvaccinated healthy 18 y/os from the assymtomatic carriers bringing their local flu from all around the country.
How the far slower mutation affects this model in terms of timescales and distance is a question for the modelling experts.
If ‘natural’ herd immunity is the solution then what’s the problem? Or to put it another way, if it’s the means then what’s the end? If the end is to stop people getting infected and dying how is a means that requires people to get infected and die appropriate? Burn the village to save the village?
You haven’t been paying attention. You need to keep the level of infection below that which the health services can cope with. This reduces the number of unnecessary fatalities. Also isolate those most vulnerable until a vaccine is found.
There is no herd immunity.
The lock downs are in place to slow down the numbers of people going to the hospital at the same time and dying if they can't be treated.
Another way of looking at that is a death calculus. You need to achieve enough deaths from the non-vulnerable to prevent the vulnerable dying.
Herd immunity takes care of itself. The strategy is a managed rate of infection.
Exactly. You could let a 100,000 people all need hospital assistance to have a chance of getting though it in a week or you could have 5,000 people over 20 weeks. The 5,000 is clearly going to be a lot more manageable than the 100,00...
I guess that at present there are just too many unknowns, one of which is whether a vaccine is even possible (which haven't managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when 'end of the world' type pandemics are discussed). There was even some debate recently as to whether catching & surviving the virus gave you immunity - there were reportedly a couple of cases in China that had been given the all clear following positive tests who had seemingly gone on to re-acquire the virus (again probably too many unknowns); I haven't heard it discussed again so perhaps immunity has been confirmed.
As to natural herd immunity I guess that depends on the cost in lives; Sweden seems to be assuming that the mortality rate would be 'acceptable' (pretty tough to define 'acceptable' if you lose someone close to you) but this may backfire.
Look a puppy !!!!!!
which haven’t managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when ‘end of the world’ type pandemics are discussed
And as pointed out it’s because there’s no point for something that gives you the sniffles.
haven’t managed it for the common cold
Which common cold?
I thought there was >200 viruses that caused it.
I’m afraid that I’m also rapidly becoming a cynical old git and even got to the point of wondering whether it wasn’t all stage managed to boost his popularity and cover over the balls up (admitted to hospital “as a precaution”, admitted to ICU “as a precaution” & and I’m sure I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in “good spirits” which isn’t the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU).
no 10 crisis message management is bizarre, I don't want to know his 02 sats or his bp but I still get the feeling we're are going be seeing this....
which haven’t managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when ‘end of the world’ type pandemics are discussed
And as pointed out it’s because there’s no point for something that gives you the sniffles.
Fair enough, I'm well outside my areas of expertise (if I even have any) so are you saying that a vaccine for the common cold is achievable? I'd have thought that there'd be enough work hours lost to it for development cost to be financially viable.
-- Edit --
Which common cold?
I thought there was >200 viruses that caused it.
I didn't know that (quite an interesting [url= https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-havent-we-cured-the-common-cold-yet/ ]New Scientist[/url] article here).
Out of interest, what exactly is a 'strain' is it a distinctly separate virus or something that's come about through mutation?
If we get CV19 deaths down to 17,000 per year (same as flu) we might take that as an acceptable compromise.
It's not as simple as that - what happens if the death rate matches but the number of people who don't make full recovery is far far greater or the length of time people are ill for is greater.
Do we also really want to put people through the trauma of it? Flu doesn't wipe out our medical key workers at the same rate. I'm not convinced we want to pay the price in key workers to achieve flu level deaths.
so are you saying that a vaccine for the common cold is achievable?
We don't need one.Your body is so good at fighting the variants of the common cold virus that you response to them is v light, and the side effects (head ache, runny nose etc etc) are better treated with other (read cheaper and already existing) drugs.
What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
What about Pub rides?..
Do we also really want to put people through the trauma of it? Flu doesn’t wipe out our medical key workers at the same rate. I’m not convinced we want to pay the price in key workers to achieve flu level deaths.
We may not want to. We may have little choice. We are still hoping for a vaccine. We may have to maintain higher ITU levels. But we also know that the current situation is untenable in the long term.
We will eventually have either a vaccine or passive vaccination (administered antibodies). These will surely be first administed to those most at risk and those most likely to spread infection. After that wider application. We want to start trials of the antibody I am working on within months. Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working!
we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?
I know we can get to a reasonable level of protetcing the vulnerabe with annual vaccination b4 flu season, but 1000s an still die
People still die of mumps but we have herd immunity to that.
Can I suggest that all the people asking facile questions about herd immunity check out the Operation Ouch episode on this topic. I watched it before Christmas with my daughter, it will clear up a lot of the misunderstandings and bring you all up to the same level as my kids.
I think this is the one or might at least take you to it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/50000690
What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂
Only if you have a freight or medical exemption
We will eventually have either a vaccine or passive vaccination (administered antibodies). These will surely be first administed to those most at risk and those most likely to spread infection. After that wider application. We want to start trials of the antibody I am working on within months. Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working!
Thanks!
We know a vaccine is over a year away.
How about the "antibody" you are working on? Is that the antibody in plasma 'thing'? How scalable is it? Assuming it works well how soon before it's available (best case)?
@outofbreath - I think we now know that Cummings et al watch "Operation Ouch"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/50000690/a >
Can I suggest that all the people asking facile questions about herd immunity
oof, I think there's a lot of misunderstanding about Covid-19 that's from media reporting it as a "new flu strain" which gives people a false sense of what this actually is coupled with the fact that it's clear that folk are't clear about immune response and so on.
oof, I think there’s a lot of misunderstanding about Covid-19 that’s from media reporting it as a “new flu strain”
No, there’s a of people assuming it’s ‘just flu’ thankfully that has pretty much dropped off.
I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels, we need to hope that this is from already approved drugs that can have additional indicated use approved, if not then the process will be much longer as safety data will be required.
Trials are underway on some drugs.
Question from a idiot - I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter. Considering younger kids in particular appear to be walking biological weapons is this not a crazy idea? My six year old brings home a new illness on a weekly basis. Colds, vomiting, the shits etc.
We’ve also been informed that our two and a half year old daughter is in the high risk category and needs to be kept under lockdown for twelve weeks as of last Friday. Not keen on sending my son to school considering this.
Apologies if I’m being a bit thick here.
I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels,
Presumably aim for that, work on a vaccine - prepare the infrastructure for vaccination in advance - increase NHS resources as much as possible to give more headway for dealing with critical cases, plus care for non-covid patients safely, and look at how you can most effectively shield the most vulnerable. Test for anti-bodies and, if immunity exists, look at the best way of releasing those people back into 'normal life'. Or not, but at least you have a clearer picture of the historic scale of infection.
Aside from a vaccine, none of those is going to sort things on their own, but if you can combine them, you at least have a little more scope and fewer people, hopefully die. Obviously in true STW style I am a mountain biker rather than a scientist, but a fair bit of this looks like common sense. I'm sure someone will be along shortly to explain exactly why it isn't though 🙂
Question from a idiot – I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter.
You know more than schools do then!!
Where did you read that?
I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter. Considering younger kids in particular appear to be walking biological weapons is this not a crazy idea? My six year old brings home a new illness on a weekly basis. Colds, vomiting, the shits etc.
For key workers kids only if necessary I’ve not heard otherwise.
Question from a idiot – I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter.
Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September
Just read it on news feed on iPhone. Probably just the press speculating. I’ve been avoiding newsfeeds in the main as a lot of them seem to treat everything with a level of sensationalism I find odd. News as entertainment. Especially annoying under current circumstances.
Dracs keyworker comment msy stand, but schools have been open for them throughout anyway.
Question from a idiot
Where did you read that? as it sounds an absolutely bonkers idea to me.
Dracs keyworker comment msy stand, but schools have been open for them throughout anyway.
Yup as discussed yesterday those lazy teachers have even given up their Easter break.
Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working
Our main business for the last 15 years or more has been phase 2 clinical trials meetings, We can be going to the same trial meetings for a couple of years or more before they move on to phase 3 or they are abandoned. Of course all those have stopped, we probably won't have any work for months and months because all the resources are being directed at this. Unless you've seen it you can have no idea how long these things normally take and how few compounds ever become an effective medicine. What is happening now is utterly extraordinary, not sure anything like it has ever been attempted. Just like the last war was won as much by people sitting on their arse as those in the front line the same will be true here. Those sacrificing their own lives in the front line are doing it to give the arse sitters time to save the rest of us. So don't forget to clap for them too.
Just realised where it’s from. Seems like idle speculation from a tabloid. Sorry folks, I should have read more carefully before posting.
https://apple.news/ASaL28BVAQ6elBWW1_BaCCA
Wish they would stick to posting properly checked facts as opposed to speculation. It serves no purpose at all. Dickheads. Don’t know why I picked today to decide to look at the newsfeed on the phone.
Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September
I think the red tops have taken the "lockdown to be reviewed on 16th" (as it must be every 3 weeks) and "schools will be one of the first things to go back under the as yet undefined and unscheduled exit plan" and combined the two.
I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels,
Yeah, although an antibody test changes everything and seems even quicker the re-purposing a drug.
How about this for a "sporty" suggestion for how soon we could be out:
https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1247839541890818048
Wish they would stick to posting properly checked facts as opposed to speculation.
Yeah it’s always worth reading past the headline.
an unnamed senior minister said: “We need to be led by the science, of course.
That’s code for here’s some shit we’ve made up.
the wife had a key worker on the phone looking for an open nursery for their child mentioning that they thought some schools were reopening. Don't know where it coming from, perhaps stories of it abroad and assuming it's here too.
just seen this in the daily fail
Downing Street DELAYS decision on ending lockdown: Stay-at-home rules could go on for weeks amid claims coronavirus peak is still a week-and-a-half away - but some ministers hint schools could reopen after Easter
now all makes sense
Some people on this forum are talking about herd immunity as if it's happening (you know who you are), it isn't. Current infection rates even in the hardest hit countries are a fraction of a percent for declared cases and about 1% if you assume real cases are an order of magnitude higher - which is unlikely given the Mulhouse religious meeting in which 2000/2500 were aware they'd been infected, the percentage of people that don't know they've had it is small.
To get herd immunity you are looking at 100 times more misery and suffering than were are seeing now.
The antibody test will be useful but only if sensitive enough, it also assumes people are not stupid with having positive result, plus we don't know if having antibodies will prevent reinfections or prevent transmission
Just took my dog out along the street for my once a day outing. It's near impossible to keep 2 meters apart when a family of 7 on bikes spread out all across the road (which has no pavement) zoom past. Made absolutely no attempt to all move to the same side of the road to give at least 2 meters space..selfish ignorant pricks.
Indeed which is why herd immunity was a non-strategy from the beginning. Herd immunity is just a natural consequence of the fire continuing to burn, assuming immunity is actually retained for a long enough period by individuals. It's no more a policy that King Canute had a policy to control the tide.