@BruceWee interesting thoughts, but although The Economy is an abstract concept it is indeed a real thing. It's big and complicated and hard (impossible?) for humans to understand but it does certainly exist.
The Economy is made up of rational operators acting in ways that are determined by the incentives they perceive and their personal preferences. They all make choices on how to allocate their time to earn money and how to spend that money once they've got it. The rules of The Economy can be tweaked to a limited extent by government, but fundamentally people will just crack on with what they see as best for themselves.
The end result of all the action is that most people get fed and housed and maybe even get a nice holiday now and again. Some people may get really unlucky or just make bad choices and that's where, in a civilized society, there needs to be a safety net in place to pick them up and look after them until they can get back to a place where they can look after themselves.
You say we can take a break from the game, but I don't think there is any way to do that. Fundamentally the rules of the game are just a reflection of human nature and I don't think you can suspend that.
Including one about Australian researchers finding existing drugs that kill CV in tests.
Bill Gates on Reddit IAMA yesterday was interesting. His thoughts:
1). He believe the Chinese numbers and South Korea mirrors them
2). The above is evidence that strict lockdown is effective but no one is sure if there will be waves once it's lifted (China & SK haven't seen the follow-on waves some are predicting
3). The Imperial College modelling is using too pessimistic assumptions, real world data is not matching it so far
4). Therapeutics should be a priority now not vaccines. Vaccines take a lot longer to develop and test, they won't be available in the timeframe needed but will eventually play a part in getting it properly under control
5). Testing is key - not sure he really explained why but I think it's down to maximising the effectiveness of the lockdown (without also crippling the country for months). Priority should be to test health care workers.
6). Hopefully it will be a wake-up call for governments to take pandemic planning and response measures seriously in future
Lots of other interesting bits of info - nothing that hasn't already been said by others but just interesting to read rational responses.
Until then “herd immunity” by catching it is what will happen.
Have you been asleep since Friday?
Change that to “may happen” if you want to keep a positive outlook, or even “may never happen” if you want to go full Eeyore.
worth watchiing - the science informing policy. Start from about 5 mins in...
You say we can take a break from the game, but I don’t think there is any way to do that.
Millions (maybe even billions) of people are already taking a break from the game. Just ask an Italian hairdresser how business is going. Suspending the game is already being discussed by both the UK and US governments in the form of suspending mortgage payments and rents, parachuting money, etc.
Much of the medical industry is based on artificially inducing scarcity through Intellectual Property laws and patents. We're prepared ta accept this and sacrifice a certain number of people at the alter of the Economy but we can choose for this scarcity to not exist any time we want. Hence why the story I linked to seems so jarring in the current situation but we're prepared to accept people dying for exactly the same reason in normal circumstances.
Shocking.
Whitty suggested that a long-term “exit strategy” from the current coronavirus policy could involve waiting for a vaccine. In response to a question about what the “exit strategy” was that would allow the restrictions currently imposed to be lifted, Whitty said there was a short, medium and long term view. In the short term, the aim was to delay and reduce the peak of the epidemic, he said. In the medium term, he said the aim was to reduce “overshoot” - which he said meant reducing the number of people who would get the virus overall. And in the long term, a vaccine was “one way out of this”, he said. But a vaccine would not happen very quickly, he said. He went on:
It's not too bad at the moment, but being on lockdown ... what for the next 18 months? Honestly, it just doesn't add up to me.
Question for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?
Because if the way the virus binds to the Ace2 receptor. Some people on ACE inhibitors may be at greater risk
good point. Why can't medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts like Gates/Buffet, rather than private companies/shareholders lining their profits? Maybe we will see a shift.Much of the medical industry is based on artificially inducing scarcity through Intellectual Property laws and patents. We’re prepared ta accept this and sacrifice a certain number of people at the alter of the Economy but we can choose for this scarcity to not exist any time we want.
And in the long term, a vaccine was “one way out of this”, he said. But a vaccine would not happen very quickly
It’s not too bad at the moment, but being on lockdown … what for the next 18 months? Honestly, it just doesn’t add up to me.
One way out. Maybe they'll develop a test for antibodies first. If they can work out who has resistance then things can quickly move onto a normal footing as people who've had it are identified and can live a normal life.
There was also talk on R4 this morning of a cheaper/easier/quicker test for people who've currently go CV. Also useful.
They don’t predict 250k in the UK, they say that’s the 2 year do nothing scenario.
Page 13, "do nothing", minimum 410k deaths, max 550k deaths, depending on the R0.
250k is when "assuming infinite ICU availability" which clearly is not the case.
Page 13, “do nothing”, minimum 410k deaths, max 550k deaths, depending on the R0.
250k is when “assuming infinite ICU availability” which clearly is not the case.
Thanks.
Which takes us back to the original question...
molgrips ...
(Sorry I saw your Q... paraphrasing "who are the WHO experts", I'm not scrolling back to find it)
Authors are all referenced and peer reviewed but I suspect me copy/pasting names from them is as pointless to you as me.
This falls under GLOPID
https://www.glopid-r.org/about-us/members/
You can click through...
GLOPID
Chair is:
BIOGRAPHY OF YAZDAN YAZDANPANAH
Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Professor of Infectious Disease, Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital and Paris Diderot University, France
Yazdan Yazdanpanah is currently the Head of Infectious Disease department at Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Paris Diderot University, France. He is Director of the DeSCID team « Decision Science In Infectious Disease Prevention, Control and Care » within the Inserm IAME UMR1137 unit at Paris Diderot University. He is also the Coordinator of the REACTing network (REsearch and ACTion targeting emerging infectious diseases) of INSERM wich aims to coordonate french research actions during the outbreaks.
Yazdan Yazdanpanah became an MD from the Lille School of Medicine, France in 1996. He qualified from the same institution first as a hepato- gastro-enterologist in 1996 and next an infectious disease specialist in 2002. He obtained a Master of Science degree in epidemiology from the Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, US in 2000, and a Ph.D degree in public health from the Bordeaux School of Public Health in 2002. In 2006, he became Professor of Infectious Disease. His research interests include the clinical epidemiology of HIV and viral hepatitis, and the pharmaco-economics of antimicrobial agents. Professor Yazdanpanah has published extensively in peer-reviewed journals and makes frequent presentations at numerous national and international meetings.
zilog
Why can’t medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts like Gates/Buffet, rather than private companies/shareholders lining their profits? Maybe we will see a shift.
Funnily enough the Gates foundation does contribute to research... leading to a whole load of conspiracy theories on COVID-19
“who are the WHO experts”
They're saying "test, test, test" which to the layman seems obvious, yet very few countrys are doing widespread testing. So there must be some missing information that explains why few countries are doing widespread testing.
I suspect testing takes a lot of time and resource and has to be done in a lab. So for that reason it's not practical to do it widely and when you get a result it's a few days out of date.
Plus of course it's a snapshot. The tested person could catch CV 5 minutes later that day or recover from it. There was talk on R4 this morning of a faster simpler test that can be widely deployed.
A test the tells you if someone has had it strikes me as far more useful, who knows if or when that will arrive.
All of the above is guessing but I really can't see any other reason why something so obvous isn't happening in Europe.
Which takes us back to the original question…
which is?
Just been to the supermarket. Definitely not much social distancing going on. Complete business as usual. Also lots of overheard talk about 'a lot of fuss about nothing'. If anyone doubts we're going to be fully locked down just go out and have a walk around town.
Why can’t medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts
This was in the labour manifesto and everyone laughed at it and said it wasn't feasible.
which is?
This:
DRJ: OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
With my reply with a bit of guesswork:
OOB: We don’t know how many deaths China will have because they hit the pause button.
Italy, they’re on 2978 deaths currently. Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn’t that far away for them.
…and the media routinely quote the worst case estimates as ‘the estimates’ ‘cos that sells well.
So I dunno, I’m just following the guidelines and hoping for the best. 🙂
Question for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?
Because if the way the virus binds to the Ace2 receptor. Some people on ACE inhibitors may be at greater risk
link to science please?
Just been to the supermarket. Definitely not much social distancing going on. Complete business as usual.
Difficult to social distance when you're in a scrum for the last bag of pasta!
Supermarket was unbelievable earlier, it looked like a cross between Black Friday and Christmas Eve.
link to science please?
Trust me he knows what he's talking about. He's probably a bit busy right now too 😉
link to science please?
Of the binding process? There is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it's not known (hence maybe)
DRJ: OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
Obviously had my wires crossed about 250K being the estimate with mitigation. Apologies for the detour!
here is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it’s not known (hence maybe)
the second bit, I wasn't having a go - as I'm on them, I'm genuinely interested...I've not been able to find any confirmation that it increases risk. Even whether high bp increases the risk or not seems "undecided" - NHS doesn't mention it as a risk factor, but something in the Lancet said it was.
No worries, stay safe !
Interest rate dropped to 0.1%!
so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
With my reply with a bit of guesswork:
OOB: We don’t know how many deaths China will have because they hit the pause button.
Italy, they’re on 2978 deaths currently. Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn’t that far away for them.
hmm.
Wuhan region on full military style lockdown, stopped at 3250 dead, region population 11 mil. China will be looking very hard at any suspect new cases when they start opening up. They may have another outbreak. They're building more beds and testing facilities. They're expecting to 'manage' this in the provinces.
Italy, population are relied on to behave - but don't behave, result, the virus is everywhere. They're at 3k dead now. What their own internal predictions are, I don't know, or how the imperial modelling could be applied. Their country serves as a good model as to what will happen here. Probably have similar adherence to the government advice too. Italian population size roughly the same as here.
Italy went into full lockdown 10/3/20. If we go into full lockdown right now this moment, we are still only a week "ahead" of them. Which we won't. The longer we delay, the more die. It beggars belief that we're still seeing stories about Italy as if the same could not happen here, and yet it is exactly what is happening here.
Progress isn't exponential - see 'logistic' function.
Hmmm, had been thinking about taking out a loan for a campervan! Gotta find those positives.
Italy, population are relied on to behave – but don’t behave, result, the virus is everywhere. They’re at 3k dead now. What their own internal predictions are, I don’t know, or how the imperial modelling could be applied. Their country serves as a good model as to what will happen here.
That's DrJ's question, it's a good model for us, yet our prediction is 250k if we had infinate respirators, meanwhile for Italy:
IF the rate of infection has turned past the half way mark, the death toll will continue to rise for another two weeks (or however long the “average” severe case runs for). That could put Italy at anywhere up to 20000 deaths. Then they have the far side of the curve to traverse. This will double the figures, but, the end is in sight.
Anyway, sounds like nobody knows the answer. What actually happens, time will tell.
link to science please?
Derek Lowe is always worth a read... Midway between layman and specialist. If you don't know, he writes a nice blog on drug discovery as a Medicinal Chemist
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/17/angiotensin-and-the-coronavirus
2). The above is evidence that strict lockdown is effective but no one is sure if there will be waves once it’s lifted (China & SK haven’t seen the follow-on waves some are predicting
An example of something that works in practice but not in theory.
3). The Imperial College modelling is using too pessimistic assumptions, real world data is not matching it so far
Nassim Nicholas Taleb the Black Swan Event author thinks the virus modeling being used in the uk is on a par with the treasury economic forecaster before 2008 crash.
That man really is a complete psychopath, isn't he?
He's dedicated his entire life to causing as much misery and suffering as possible, preferably to the poorest and most vulnerable in society
A total and utter ****!!!
we all knew IDS was a ****, nothing new there.
yet our prediction is 250k if we had infinate respirators
That was "do nothing" w.r.t. social distancing (etc), i.e. let it rip through the population.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the nation on television on Wednesday, which she has previously only done for her annual New Year message.
"The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since World War Two has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity," she said.
That was a brave reference.
The government has also banned cycling outside in France.
paraphrasing “who are the WHO experts”
No I meant do you know who the UK experts are?
I think the reason we aren't testing is that our under-resourced NHS cannot afford the manpower to do that many tests. Guessing that we are concentrating on testing those presenting with severe symptoms.
The government may be listening to its advisers, which I suspect they are because they are taking part in the PCs, but it's probably also stopping them from explaining everything fully i.e. we're quite ****ed and we can't do what we need to because of chronic under-investment in the NHS for so long because that would be politically undesirable.
Of the binding process? There is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it’s not known (hence maybe)
Interesting. I had read that but as Nick says it wasn't proven and folks were saying the verall risk is greater if you stop taking them.
Is the general risk with folks with cardiovascular issues who aren't on those drugs that basically the heart gets put under far too much stress trying to pump oxygen and gives up?
No I meant do you know who the UK experts are?
Sorry, mis-understanding. Some thread indexing issues so I'd seen it but misread.
The government may be listening to its advisers, which I suspect they are because they are taking part in the PCs, but it’s probably also stopping them from explaining everything fully i.e. we’re quite **** and we can’t do what we need to because of chronic under-investment in the NHS for so long because that would be politically undesirable.
When the PM can't read a 2 page memo and waves everything away as irritating detail then ???
Don't know if you every read the CAIB (Columbia Accident Investigation) or shortened comments from Tufte... synopis...
https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/caib
Read the as information is filtered up para
Derek Lowe is always worth a read… Midway between layman and specialist. If you don’t know, he writes a nice blog on drug discovery as a Medicinal Chemist
Thanks for that....just about followed it 😀
mrmonkfinger
Member
German Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the nation on television on Wednesday, which she has previously only done for her annual New Year message.
“The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since World War Two has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity,” she said.
That was a brave reference.
presumably talking about the aftermath rather than enacting the war...
@mariner - Taleb is often quoted as some kind of visionary but he's not (he's just a very naughty economist).
I think a lot of his work is not that ground-breaking as what he's often referring to in pseudo-laymans terms, can usually be described as epistemic and aleatory risk associated with the system, or event, that he's discussing. Indeed the very concept of Black Swans is crap, there's loads of the buggers in New Zealand 😉
It has even led to people bastardising the term and now people talk about grey-swan events. FFS !
Jesus.
Just worked out the logistic function for Italy.
Assumptions:
Assumed today is the point where new cases start dropping back (inflection). i.e. before today the cases were increasing exponentially, going forward the curve looks like the first half in reverse.
Extrapolated back from the current death toll to total cases 12 days ago.
Assumed 1% mortality
Assumed three day doubling rate, which certainly applied during early case detection, but this may be too aggressive, a four day period might be more appropriate.
Total dead 104k.
With four day doubling, about half that.
****.
Some people have no real idea of what's going on.
My friend asked her parents if they needed anything as she was braving the supermarket.
This is their shopping list......
LETTUCE X 2 (PREF LITTLE GEMS NOT THE FLOPPY ONE)
BROCCOLI
CABBAGE (PREF POINTED ONE, NOT SAVOY)
LEEKS
ONIONS (NOT TOO SMALL BUT NOT TOO BIG)
BASIL POT (CHECK LEAVES)
MUSHROOMS
PEARS (PREF CONFERENCE, NOT WILLIAMS AND NOT TOO RIPE)
2 BANANAS
BON MAMAN BITTER ORANGE MARMALADE
MARIGOLD SUISSE BOUILLON TUB
KNORR BEEF STOCK CUBES
YOGURTS X 3 (NOT THOSE GREEK TOTAL ONES)
BENECOL RASPBERRY
BENECOL PEACH & APRICOT
DOUBLE CREAM – MEDIUM SIZE
WAFER THIN AIR DRIED HAM X 2
PIZZA EXPRESS HOUSE SALAD DRESSING
FOOD BIN LINERS
MOZZARELLA SLICES IN RED PACKET
WALNUT PIECES (NOT HALVES, THEY ARE IN A YELLOW PACKET)
DIGESTIVES
HOT CROSS BUNS
MIXED BAG OF FUN SIZE FAMILY FAVOURITES (SHOULD INCLUDE MALTESERS/MILKY WAY ETC BUT NOT BOUNTY)
WHITE WINE (I WOULD PREFER TORRETTA DI MONDELLI PINOT GRIGIO DEL VENEZIE)
WAITROSE PACKET OF MIXED SOFT ROLLS)
BBC news just mentioned that the fatality rate in Italy has overtaken China now but did not give the exact number ... ☹️
p/s: just shown on BBC screen on PM announcement now. The number is 3,045.