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However to wish somebody ill says more about yourself than than anything else.
I think people are quick to conflate "does not wish Johnson well" with "wishes Johnson harm", and I don't think it's accurate. It certainly isn't with me - I feel sorry for his family and friends and the millions of people the support him, but I'm really just indifferent myself. Is he somewhat hoist by a petard jointly manufactured by himself and his party? I rather think he is.
even more reason for them to be open and above board, prevent any accusations of “insider” dealing ie shorting the pound because you know the pm is worse than no10 are admitting
That is a fair point - it has also crossed my mind. His condition could have been strictly need to know. The post was more a what if... without going into too much detail, it's just another thing to debate. In reality there are probably a multitude of reasons why things have been handled the way they have. It may be another 30 years before we find out.
@speedster
Only 2/3 of patients in ITU are ventilated. It’s not the only thing ITU offers.
I stand corrected
A different thing:
express article, so large pinch of salt
The study found that more than half of the sample of intensive care patients died due to COVID-19 complications while the other 50 percent were discharged.
ignoring the glaring maths error there, the numbers are not good for those admitted:
The research body found that of 690 coronavirus patients in intensive care with known outcomes, 346 died.
ICL modelling suggested little difference in death toll from school closures. I would assume, perhaps coldly, this will come down do a triage call on lives lost from not 'getting the economy back on track' vs lives lost from the viral spread via school contacts.
CPAP for johnson sounds right based on current thinking among medics I know on covid wards.
Based on this they don't want to ventilate too early
How terrible to wish this kind of ill upon a fellow human being.
+1
No one has said it out loud - they're too smart for that - but it's implied.
No one has said it out loud – they’re too smart for that – but it’s implied.
How terrible to carry that level of paranoia.
Not just the BBC edukator all other outlets running with it.
But paper itself says that doing track & trace much more effective, which is what countries like s.korea & Germany have been able to do early & help flatten curve. As we left it so late to ramp up testing were not able to do that yet.
And for some reason it's something Cummings is not a fan of.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/dominic-cummings-coronavirus-big-tech
Also says you'd have to maintain 2m rule within schools, would be a physical challenge , but doable with older kids, with younger ones not a hope!
Paranoia? Don't think so.
@speedstar Ordinarily you’re right, however at the moment we’re trending towards 100% ventilated, and the ones that aren’t are people we’ve extubated.
Measures short of ventilation that we’d ordinarily use on ITU are being done elsewhere.
However, you never know one of them might step up and actually put the country before their own interests and do a good job. Fingers crossed.
This is my hope, Raab proved himself beyond useless as Brexit secretary, you can bet the others are circling as usual (Tory leadership battles always remind me of the death of the Skeksi emporrer at the start of the Dark Crystal movie)
Gove isn't stupid & with his history of backstabbing Johnson , he's probably lining up his allies.
Government of national unity would be nice to see & with Corbyn go e many Tories be more amenable to it, but I just don't believe they are altruistic enough (I'd love to be proved wrong)
It was the BBC who gave space to the Oxford virologist who claims the virus is only live for a very short time, less than a week, whereas almost every other source I’ve seen says up to two weeks
Can you post some links to some of the 'every other source' so we can judge for ourselves?
I assume you're talking about a version of this story posted by SOM:
Also can you link to the BBC version of the article you're talking about which might fill in some of the gaps.
In the same way that you don’t go in to hospital late sunday for ‘routine checks’ as ‘a precaution’, you don’t go in to ITU at this point in time as ‘a precaution’ to be ‘close to a ventilator’.
That ITU doctor from Manchester (hero) who's doing interviews with Radio 5 after his shifts late at night said this was consistent with his department.
They are moving people quite proactively into ITU if blood oxygen levels are variable and get them on CPAP/close monitoring as the disease can progress rapidly in hours. He described giving mobile phones to people who looked fine to speak to family when he knew the odds were against them.
So according to him, the next 24 hours is key. Some patients are on CPAP for 24 hours and then back out again to recover. The rest are intubated and that's where the 50/50 odds (he said his dept was 54/46) apply.
Also says you’d have to maintain 2m rule within schools, would be a physical challenge
If would be a challenge if you trebled the number of classrooms and teachers and doubled or trebled the size of all the corridors. As it stands it would simply not be possible.
In the article they compare with SARS and normal flu but omit to say that all the evidence points to CVG19 being far more contaigeous. Omission of the most important fact.
The paper says track and trace is more effective - than what exactly. Track and trace, yes great, but put thousands of kids in proximity whatever their age and you'll get transmission and then try tracing the thousands of kids. A few kids came back from Italy to Madame's school just before the end of confinement, on learning of the Italian problem many parents did the intelligent thing and simply took their kids out of school, just checking the contacts of those who didn't was an administive headache.
I've worked in schools enough to know how things spread and it's just as bad in siwth forms as in middle schools. They contaminated everything around them, and training them to protect themselves is a lost cause. In most scools I think you'll find respect the 2m rule means reducing clas size to <10 and organising staggered starts to classes to reduce numbers in corridors.
Anyhow, the only sense in the article came from Imperial as usual. They had the last word but it was unfortunately lost in all the other crap.
I have every sympathy for Boris Johnson as a human being, just as I have for everyone else in the same position. Equally I think his politics and general character are abhorrent. The two positions are not incompatible. I hope he pulls through.
I also wrote a lot of stuff about us needing to go beyond a public response based largely on emotion, then realised that basically there's nothing I can do about it, so deleted it. But it does worry me that there's a finite limit to how long you can maintain a lockdown based on emotional response, particularly where there's no obvious end to it.
And yes, I get that there are scientists and researchers behind the scenes doing just that evidence-based research and strategic thinking, but not much of that is making its way through on the public-facing front.
as the actions of BJ/his govt have undoubtedly caused thousands of additional deaths in this health crisis
HAve they ? Or have they also saved thousands ? Who's to say ? Are the Italian government imcompetent too ? The Spanish ones ? Belgians ?
Also says you’d have to maintain 2m rule within schools, would be a physical challenge
Impossible. As I said way back, my diabetic son was spat on the day before we took him out of school. Open up schools and you’ve given up controlling the spread. A different path might be possible IF we can confine the virus geographically, opening schools in areas with low or no infection, but ‘we’ blew that chance ages ago I suspect, by being slow to test and contain when Johnson and his cabinet of stooges were on extended post victory jollies and not acting on what was happening in other countries.
I'll say it again - actually, **** it, I won't. I lost days of my life trying to talk reasonably in online "see who shouts loudest" contests over Brexit, and all it did was raise my blood pressure. So yeah, if you want to conflate my indifference to Johnson's health with wishing him dead, you go ahead and fill your incorrect boots.
Also says you’d have to maintain 2m rule within schools, would be a physical challenge
Mrs SWSD has been "teaching" a class of 12 6-10 year olds. In a standard classroom you can space them to sit about 1.5 metres apart. Only they don't stay sat still. And let them outside and all concept of social distancing goes by the board.
Her opinion of that professor's fine theories is that he hasn't really thought it through.
Trump is an unmitigated disaster managing a national crisis.
That's very polite of you.
We have loads of political threads. We have one for Boris and one for Trump. Can we try to keep politics in general in it's place and leave the CV thread for discussion about the virus and the politics that specifically relate to the virus.
I'm not telling people what to do - more begging really. 🙂
Mods feel free to delete this post.
What amazes me is the White House publish his words verbatim.
Presumably for the public record. And to serve as a valuable lesson for history. Paraphrase it and you’ll get some lost in translation.
You know, I have spent last night and this morning genuinely shocked at how much the news about Boris has shaken me. I really hope he pulls through soon, which is not how I imagined I would respond.
Then I move on to POTUS. And I am so conflicted. I want to be a good person and wish him well. I mean, at this point he doesn't have much impact on global policy so he's not affecting our lives in the UK right now. But he is just adding to the sense of despair about the whole situation. I find myself genuinely thinking it would be better for the American people if he just... went away*. At every turn if he's not doing something stupid and ill-conceived he's furthering his own interests. None of it is sincere or compassionate or smart.
* I don't think I want the demented old guy to actually die or anything. Maybe just sit out the next few months on a ventilator out of the spotlight.
That post featuring Trumps actual words was entirely on topic. Couldn’t be more so.
Those who don't care for BoJo, do you at least care for the office of Prime Minister?
The UK hasn't lost its Prime Minister since 1865.
Western Powers losing their leader to illness rather than assassination or accident is also hugely rare since the end of WW2.
Not good news for a country already in a bit of a mess.
PS - Harold Holt is a good story if you're bored.
PPS - US President must be career second only to suicide bomber; just under 20% mortality rate.
The BBC article on schools is surely just lining us up for the fact that kids will have to go to school in August regardless? I can't see how we can delay the start of a new school year, even assuming we skip the whole summer term.
Her opinion of that professor’s fine theories is that he hasn’t really thought it through.
Not just one professor, SAGE said that's what the evidence suggested as well. Agree it's totally counter intuitive. Of course there's no evidence that closing schools increases spreading either so closing the schools hasn't 'disobeyed' that advice.
Let’s hope they can return then, or sooner Scotroutes, but preparation for distance learning up to Xmas is already being considered at all levels of education. A return to school/college/uni should only follow a change of situation.
‘Regardless’ is a word I hope no one making major decisions is using.
Q Well, you come out here every day — right, sir? — talking about the benefits of hydroxychloroquine.
THE PRESIDENT: I want them to try it. And it may work, and it may not work. But if it doesn’t work, it’s nothing lost by doing it. Nothing.
Trump has lots to gain tho
Trump 'has stake in anti-Malaria drug'
Hydroxychloroquine. Chances are you only heard that word recently. And there's an even higher chance you heard it because it was mentioned by US President Donald Trump.
Trump has been pushing the drug - a known anti-malarial drug - as the treatment for the virus, encouraging patients to take it, saying: "What do you have to lose?"
Perhaps the real question is - what does Trump have to gain? Quite a bit, says a report by the New York Times.
The report suggests that Trump himself has a "small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine".
The report also suggests that several other pharmaceutical companies also stand to profit - including those with shareholders that have connections to Trump.
but preparation for distance learning up to Xmas is already being considered at all levels of education.
didn't some ol' duffer suggest free high speed broadband for all ?
Trump ‘has stake in anti-Malaria drug’
A stake that's approximately $500.
I can’t see how we can delay the start of a new school year, even assuming we skip the whole summer term.
By September it's likely mass antibody testing will be available which will totally change the world's approach to this.
(Tory leadership battles always remind me of the death of the Skeksi Emperor at the start of the Dark Crystal movie)
Dominic Cummings is the Chamberlain.
You didn’t catch a name for the ITU doc did you?
https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/1247463604028399617
'Dr. Al' is all they say.
A stake that’s approximately $500.
Glad you said that. Do you have a source for that? It's the sort of thing that makes a good headline but by going for the killer blow when there isn't one - it's missing the real point.
Trump is basing his response to this crisis on a false hope that an unproven drug is going to save lives, instead of following what the only actual science says. Even if chloroquine is useful, it's clear (from the absence of a significant effect seen in the small trials) that it is not going to make a big difference to mortality numbers. Maybe it helps a few (thousand) people, in which case great. But it's not a panacea. The only real way that we know is to stop the spread is the hygiene, social distancing measures to reduce the amount of transmission - that 'r' value we've all heard about.
It's a misguided approach that is going to cost them thousands of lives, because he's too stupid to know the difference between expert opinion based on actual science, and hyperbole.
Gove self isolating now, truly end of days
Gove self isolating now, truly end of days
Whitehall is right at the centre of CV. All those journos visiting and long hours in close contact between civil servants etc.
Chances are you only heard that word recently.
To be fair to Trump, this has been one of the drugs that quite a few specialists have been looking at with regards to this set of corna-virus. (MERS, Bird flu, swine flu) etc. My work brings me into contact with doctors in in the Far east, Aus and NZ and they're quite familiar with it. So it has been in medical circles for quite some time, (years at least) and I've no doubt that Trump has been briefed by doctors who specialise in these sorts of diseases.
Gove self isolating now, truly end of days
No no no, even him I wish well!
Regardless of profit / efficacy motivators, we need to be wary of hydroxychloroquine side effects before considering global therapeutic vaccination / treatment. They are related to Fluoroquinolones, now largely banned due to thousands of deaths / lifelong adverse effects. As with FQs. HCQ / CQs are also known to cause retinal issues, serious cardio problems and neuropathies. Governments keen to reduce their headline grabbing Covid 19 death tolls may not care much for the side effects of mass treatment if a) the economy gets moving again b) the Covid 19 toll goes down and c) emergency legislation protects medics from legal action. A proper vaccine may take longer and cost lives in the short term but HCQs / CQs should really only be a last resort.
I’ve no doubt that Trump has been briefed by doctors who specialise in these sorts of diseases.
Have a read of the article that was linked earlier in this discussion. Trump is pushing chloroquine because he has been lobbied by Rudy Guiliani (who has declared himself an expert on C-19) and other acquaintances, including a "simple country doctor" who has declared it a wonder treatment based on his local use.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/technology/doctor-zelenko-coronavirus-drugs.html
As usual, Trump is just shooting from the hip based on anecdotes he likes the sound of.
Trump's official medical adviser is cautioning that there is currently an absence of good scientific evidence to support chloroquine as an effective treatment.
LBC reporting the schools report in the same was the BBC. What are journalists playing at?!?
Basically stating that schools don’t need to be closed.
🤦🏻♂️
What a vile specimen he is.
Gove self isolating now, truly end of days
UK Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove is self-isolating at home, because a family member is showing symptoms of coronavirus
@speedstar Ordinarily you’re right, however at the moment we’re trending towards 100% ventilated, and the ones that aren’t are people we’ve extubated.
Measures short of ventilation that we’d ordinarily use on ITU are being done elsewhere.
@ratherbeintobago I was only quoting from the latest ICNARC data. Every ICU will be fighting its own independent battle although there is some thought whether ventilation is actually counterproductive for some patients. I'm not an ICU doctor so this is all second hand information and happy to be corrected.
Paris has banned daytime joggers
My wife (ED ACP) observed to me yesterday that it seemed at her hospital that the vast majority of patients who are started on CPAP end up on ventilators, it just delays the point at which they do so.
She also said that of the Corvid admissions the trust is seeing there is a large percentage who are within the 30-50 age bracket and these are often the ones who are ending up the sickest.
Paris has banned daytime joggers
Saw that. Obvious question; what happens at 1 minute past 7?
She also said that of the Corvid admissions the trust is seeing there is a large percentage who are within the 30-50 age bracket and these are often the ones who are ending up the sickest.
Let’s look at that another way. 30-50 is the highest population bracket and if you are admitted with covid it’s because you’re seriously unwell with it, otherwise you stay at home to recover.
The most effective measure to clear the streets near me would be to ban walking dogs.
Oooh! Edgy.
30-50
Thats also the age where shit lifestyle starts to catch up with you.
He says clutching at straws.
The most effective measure to clear the streets near me would be to ban walking dogs.
How have you come to this conclusion, if dog walking was banned I'd still go for a walk either alone or with my son.
How have you come to this conclusion, if dog walking was banned I’d still go for a walk either alone or with my son.
Because they hate dogs it’s better than their last suggestion of what to do with dogs. Of course it alludes them that there’s more people exercising without a dog then with.
Because they hate dogs
I guess so.
I love dogs. Doesn’t make his statement untrue. The most action outside the home around here, away from work, and away from essential shopping, looks, anecdotally, to be dog walking. While that is allowed (and I think it should be) there will still be a lot going on outside the home.
I love dogs, it's the bellend at the other end of the lead that's the issue. 🙂
I don't mind one dog but taken as a whole we'd be better off without them. They shit all over the place (although this is better than it was back in the 80's when I was a kid and responsible dog owners weren't a thing) and they put something like 8,000 people in hospital per year with bites.
It's also looking like some pets may host the coronavirus so will be interesting to see what happens there.
Our friend's kids have just returned from Argentina.
One of their neighbours told another one they couldn't walk their dog. An argument ensued as to the validity of walking the dog.
The neighbour later shot the dog dead to stop the man walking it .
It’s also looking like some pets may host the coronavirus so will be interesting to see what happens there.
Is it? Well my dog is isolation too so he’s not going to transfer a virus soon.
I don’t mind one dog but taken as a whole we’d be better off without them
Do take turns in walking that one dog?
they put something like 8,000 people in hospital per year with bites.
How many peopleca year do mountainbikes hospitalise?
@rydster, I'm semi rural and see only one or two folk out walking dogs and all are following social distancing practices, so what's the risk there? You are also ignoring the mental health benefits of having a pet, both in normal circumstances and in these exceptional times. I've not seen my kids for weeks. Fortunately, the dogs are company for me living on my own.
Controversially for this forum, I've never seen so many cyclists out and about.
It’s also looking like some pets may host the coronavirus so will be interesting to see what happens there.
Now if you had mentioned cats can host the virus then i would have agreed but you wrongly pointed out that dogs can host the virus, they cannot. The can carry the virus on their coat/fur through contaminated touch which is not hosting.
but preparation for distance learning up to Xmas is already being considered at all levels of education.
Source for this? I'm a teacher (admittedly I'm on 'holiday' right now so not paying as close attention as I usually might) but everything I 'know' so far still seems to be focused on a September return.
Now if you had mentioned cats can host the virus then i would have agreed
Even that isn’t looking very likely.
The NHS has been under a sustained financial attack from a mystery force for the last decade. Its time fro Jeffery Schlupp to step up.
BBC News now reporting Bojo on oxygen but not ventilator.
So according to him, the next 24 hours is key. Some patients are on CPAP for 24 hours and then back out again to recover. The rest are intubated and that’s where the 50/50 odds (he said his dept was 54/46) apply.
How long has Bojo been in ITU?
He says clutching at straws.
52 and completely unshit lifestyle here. I drink about 1 unit a week, never smoked, no medical history and a very fit 70 kilos and 21 BMI. It will come down to the immunology hand you are dealt. Still bumping along and not getting worse.
Regarding schools, couldn't the current situation be used to rejig the school year? So instead of having school years that run Sept to Aug, instead they run Jan to Dec getting rid of the six weeks holiday at the same time? So for example end of term is three weeks long instead of the current two times two weeks and six week summer holiday. If schools were to re-open in say September then kids could finish their last term of this school year.
52 and completely unshit lifestyle here. I drink about 1 unit a week, never smoked, not medical history and a very fit 70 kilos and 21 BMI. It will come down to the immunology hand you are dealt. Still bumping along and not getting worse.
Good to still see you are still doing OK.
BBC report this morning (I think) said that African-Americans were being disproportionately affected by Coronavirus.
Hydroxychloroquine. Chances are you only heard that word recently. And there’s an even higher chance you heard it because it was mentioned by US President Donald Trump.
nah heard about it years ago.
Social factors?
BBC News now reporting Bojo on oxygen but not ventilator.
Or CPAP.
@scotroutes - I believe so. It was in fairly poor cities like Detroit and Chicago. The poorer segments of society who may not be in the best health due to the American healthcare system.
Edit: Found it now
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52194018
I wonder if people of African 'origin' are also more susceptible to influenza like they are to cold injuries. Influenza is more potent in colder climates I believe, so 'ethnic groups' associated with colder climates may have a more robust immunology? I know that is a very crude assertion but consider that 'White Europeans' are more susceptible to malaria and I also read something once about ethnicity and resistance to cholera.
No social contact outside the immediate home, perfectly understandable and good advice, so why the **** is scientists question school closures up for discussion?, surely there is an increased chance that kids (being mostly asymptomatic carriers) will bring it into a secure home environment?
I love dogs, it’s the bellend at the other end of the lead that’s the issue. 🙂
Do you have any real motivation for posting this beyond just goading people in this febrile atmosphere? Have a word with yourself. :Smiley face: