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simply incorrect go check the stats Teacher were far more at risk of catching it than supermarket workers because of the less restrictive practices in schools and the far greater mixing of groups
Source for this? Studies such as the below don't show such a straightforward picture.
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2060
Also, I could't help notice some selective quoting of judetheobscures comments on supermarkets! Full version below. I understood it to be an extreme example to illustrate the point that the negative impact of any closure/restriction should be weighed against it's intended benefit
We didn’t close the supermarkets did we? And we didn’t do that because some measures outweight the down side of their potentially positive effect
In the entire length off this long running thread, those against lockdown, masks…whatever… have never been able to come up with a credible alternative
I'm not advocating it... but I thought the alternative was pretty clear... i.e. live with the consequences (higher hospitalisation and deaths). Several countries had less stringent restrictions than ours. It's a valid debate.
The example of this is NZ – they lockdown fast and hard, have had problems recently, but for the past two years have had far fewer restrictions and issues than we have
Yes. It's probably not linear though. It's possible that our version of lockdown... with borders open.... was actually the worst of both worlds. I'm sure this will keep epidemiologists busy for years trying to unpick cause and effect of various measures. I think we're kidding ourselves on here making any definitive statements on what was right and wrong...
I've no doubt better decisions could have been made, if we'd been better prepared, better funded, acted harder and faster with borders and real quarantine, enforced rules rather than had "guidance". Then the longer term effects on education and mental health and the impact on other health conditions would have been less.
And, to be fair, the government got the gamble on vaccines right.
That's just my opinion - millions of pounds of public money will soon be wasted while more informed people thrash it out in a public enquiry that won't report or result in any useful changes until those kids die of old age.
Well, that's me for the second time and the wife for the first time
Just got cold symptoms and headaches
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but I thought the alternative was pretty clear… i.e. live with the consequences (higher hospitalisation and deaths)
There is no real control group country to compare. All have had interventions of sorts, including population rather than policy driven behavioural changes. The first lockdown was a precaution to put a brake on the contagion whilst trying to learn something about the new pathogen.
I think that in the absence of the second lockdown during Winter 2020/21 we would have seen a totally unacceptable healthcare burden (as in not have been able to dispose of the bodies fast enough consequences). We really had no other tools in the armoury. This winter we've had vaccines and some antivirals. And a huge burden of infection with protection from hospitalisations/deaths by mass vaccination. But that first winter was bleak indeed.
Had Winter 2020/21 been left to run unchecked (and it peaked at 4000 admissions/day a week after lockdown began and 1400 deaths/day two weeks after), the population would have had an outcry. Of that I am in no doubt.
There is no real control group country to compare
Had Winter 2020/21 been left to run unchecked, the population would have had an outcry. Of that I am in no doubt
Agreed, although on specific measures there's a debate to be had, and in time it may be possible to find adequate control groups to draw some conclusions. The obvious example being school closures - I'm not quite sure we got the balance right on that, although have little evidence to back that up.
EDIT - another good example is the "county border" rule in Scotland, which saw us city folk legally prohibited to drive 30mins for a walk in the countryside. I'd almost blocked that period out! Seems mad when you look back on it with hindsight.
The obvious example being school closures – I’m not quite sure we got the balance right on that, although have little evidence to back that up.
It's not an unreasonable position, and I am sure we will not close schools again, but I think it is too easy to apply clarity of hindsight to what were truly dire circumstances. As it is, decisions over that Christmas (which Boris 'saved') killed an extra 30K UK citizens. That's about 3-5x a typical flu epidemic and double the most recent 'bad' year. And that is with the lockdown bringing spread under eventual control on Jan 5th 2021! The loss of one half-term (or less) of schooling might have been more appropriate, but they were bleak times.
Agreed, washing hands before eating etc is something we’ve tried to teach kids for generations after all! However as with all things there’s a balance, even if we could keep things completely sterile I doubt that would be a good thing overall.
Meh, I've survived 50 years
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As it is, decisions over that Christmas (which Boris ‘saved’) killed an extra 30K UK citizens.
Having all pupils in schools for ONE DAY at the start of that term after Christmas was Johnson’s lowest moment as leader. How anyone could trust his judgment after that, I don’t know.
which saw us city folk legally prohibited to drive 30mins for a walk in the countryside. I’d almost blocked that period out! Seems mad when you look back on it with hindsight.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times 😂
Over 93,300 cases today alone. I’m not sure whether I should be worried, or carrying on as normal…
It wasn’t long ago that this was a worry.
England stops testing in a couple of weeks, then it'll be zero cases and nothing to worry about.
or carrying on as normal…
Depends what normal means. I’m still wearing masks on public transport and in shops, where people have little choice but to be, to try and not be that guy that passes it on to older or at risk folk as they get about and do their food shopping etc. Not doing so in pubs etc though, which I know isn’t that logical, but feel that purely social settings are optional for people (apart from the staff of course) where as public transport and food shops etc are harder for the at risk to avoid. So that’s my normal, and I’m carrying on with it.
Loads, they are a bunch of leftist, lazy, over pensioned scumbags anyway.
Challanged recieved, pick a time and place and we'll see how lazy teachers are. Or you could tell me your profession and i can make a similarly generic tabloid retort.
I had to be reminded of a lockdown (or at least one that lasted longer than i thought) as we had been going to work and carrying on with lessons. I'd not realised the country was still in lockdown.
Covid is definatley picking up again, 1 staff member off last week, two this week, a colleagues wifehas tested positive which has caused issues covering school runs etc.
Or you could tell me your profession
Teacher 😂😂😂😂😜
Covid is definatley picking up again, 1 staff member off last week, two this week, a colleagues wifehas tested positive which has caused issues covering school runs etc.
Same here!
Teacher 😂😂😂😂😜
Classic stuff. 🙂
Also we mustn't forget 'long covid'.
People have symptoms ranging from their sense of taste and smell not returning for months, through to not being able to do simple chores.
I had a go at a woman in a public loo yesterday for walking out with her child and not washing their hands. I really don't care how I came across, there was a queue too. Disgusting.
I had a go at a woman in a public loo yesterday for walking out with her child and not washing their hands.
What is this sense of smell you speak of?
I had a go at a woman in a public loo yesterday for walking out with her child and not washing their hands.
I'm not a germo-phobe, honestly, but I can't be the only person to wonder why toilet doors don't open outwards for personal hygiene reasons. Or have a bin on the outside to place the paper towel you've just used to dry your hands and hold the door handle. If it's a long bar, I always pull from the top!
How many teachers dying, teachers families dying and teachers suffering is acceptable?
This is as absurd a question as me asking you 'how many child suicides and children suffering with mental health do you think is acceptable?'
But console yourself with the simple fact that the risk of mortality having contracted the virus, even pre-vaccine, to anyone under the age of 60 was only the same as their risk of mortality within the next 12 months from anything, cancer, RTA, heart attack, brain tumour etc.
This was always understood and always established in fact and never disputed. It was however, and I accept this, not the same thing as worrying about hospitalisation rates and capacity. That was the real problem; if hospitals became full and people needing treatment were being turned away (and then dying because they lacked appropraite treatment) then that would have been a truly nightmare scenario and politically catastrophic.
THAT was the reason we too the restrictive measures we did - time was the only vector we had control over; it's a virus and it can't really be stopped, only mitigated to either a greater or lesser degree and the data from around the world is demonstrating this to be true - case loads spiked everywhere at some point and the only vector we had a choice over was 'when'.
Here then is the point we likely agree on TJ - if we had double (or some other unknown and potentially unknowable metric) the capacity in the NHS, we would not have needed lockdown at all. Perhaps the real problem was that we were being told NHS capacity was critical just three months before we even knew what was about to happen:
I agree we needed to take measures to slow the rate of infection. I don't agree that mothballing education should have been one of those meausres and I base that on the direct, personal experience I have had with the impact on mental health, and child suicide rates, that this measure had on our children.
I don’t agree that mothballing education should have been one of those meausres
Education wasn't mothballed. It was delivered in a different way. It was a huge disruption, implemented in an instant, with no warning and with no pre-investment (or planning). I am a teacher and I think we did extremely well, given the circumstances. The disruption has led to a number of advances that will continue beyond the current crisis.
I base that on the direct, personal experience I have had with the impact on mental health, and child suicide rates, that this measure had on our children.
This actually wasn't as a result of the disruption in "Education", it was as a result of the disruption to normal social contact, which is a massive by product of how our education is delivered. I am struggling with pupils who thrived under lockdown and really do not want to return to school-based learning.
There has now been significant investment in equipment - our kids now have Chromebooks - and a massive leap in the skills of teachers to use platforms like Google Classroom. This is, and will continue to be, transformative.
‘how many child suicides and children suffering with mental health do you think is acceptable?’
Absolutely zero, and sadly poor mental health amongst children is nothing new. The pandemic has ripped the filthy bandage off the festering wound of mental health provision for young people, and everyone can now see it for what it is. It needed massive improvement before, and it still needs it now. On the front line we are being given extra resources to deploy for this, but young people's mental health does not start and stop at the school door. This is a societal issue, engrained in our culture, that needs addressing at every level and at every stage. Everybody has a part to play. Even if you are not a parent, look at what you see around you in the world, in the media, online, and ask yourself "What effect is this having on young peoples' mental health?", and if you're not happy, do something about it.
It is unlikely that bickering on the internet will actually help.
Over 93,300 cases today alone. I’m not sure whether I should be worried, or carrying on as normal…
It wasn’t long ago that this was a worry
Whilst we are in a much better place than last time with the vaccines and constant improvements in care to deal with it I'm feeling the same. We mustn't forget there is less testing going on so we may only be getting a part of the picture as to what's going on.
It does feel like we are sowing the seeds for another new variant to appear in our population but be able to spread nationwide and be ready and waiting for next winter. Worst case would be a new sttain emerges that wreaks havoc through the summer but that seems unlikely. Either way it's not quite as Over as some would have us believe.
it’s not quite as Over as some would have us believe.
Yet all of the restrictions and inconveniences of air travel were lifted this morning. How long before a country tells us we are not welcome… ..again?
I’m not a germo-phobe,
Me neither but I carry a mini bottle of sanitiser which is used each time I exit a public facility, and as I leave my car to enter a building / office.
Are there official stats out to demonstrate the increase in suicides? A serious question - we know 160,000+ have died with Covid on the death certificate, so how many more suicides have there been for comparison?
Can't find a way of phrasing the question in a kinder way - I've had my own mental health issues and have lost friends and colleagues to suicide over the years,
we know 160,000+ have died with Covid on the death certificate
And what we don't know is how many more would have died without the limited restrictions that were deployed.
TiRed - I know you are one of many who have long covid. To lose one's sense of smell and/or taste isn't pleasant, as anyone who has had a bad cold will know.
Yes children do need to have a base of immunity. Usually brought about by having been breast fed, playing with other children, playing OUTSIDE. But the basics of hygiene are to wash hands thoroughly before cooking, handling food, eating and after using the loo. It's not rocket science.
I never use bleach or anti bacterial products (only 'ecover'), but instead very hot water.
Again there are people out there who have very low immune systems and we must be aware of looking after them.
And what we don’t know is how many more would have died without the limited restrictions that were deployed.
There doesn't seem to be too much credible argument with the 250,000-400,000 figure that prompted the first "lockdown". And while every death, and particularly suicide, is a tragedy, I'm not getting any sense that there's been 250,000+ additional suicides as a result of UK restrictions.
The mental health costs of restrictions are substantial, but surely can't stand up as a justification to have not taken that route, is the point I'm failing to make very well.
Ok. There may be no right answer to this:
Tested positive on Sunday 6th. No symptoms on the day of the test but then mild cold like symptoms for a few days & after that virtually asymptomatic. Continued to test + all the way through isolation so no quick exit for me. House is big enough to fully isolate from my wife. She tests negative every day. On Day 9 wife gets a sniffle, which is worse on Day 10, still negative, she thinks its a cold.
Day 11 I'm free, feel absolutely fine but still testing +, wife feels much worse & tests + (ends up with moderately bad flu symptoms). Meanwhile we are now on Day 13, I'm still testing + (albeit the T line is quite faint) But today I feel a bit snottery & very, very slightly under the weather.
So the question is:
Have I picked up another Covid infection? (if so where)?
Is this the same infection with a bit of a relapse?
Is this in fact a cold & wife managed to catch it almost the same time as covid? ( bearing in mind she has symptoms for a couple of days before + test)
Which begs the question whether I should be isolating
Work colleague is off with Covid. He spent last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights at the casino. I'm trying hard to think of a more likely place to catch it than a gaming table where you are shoulder to shoulder with random strangers who change places regularly. Even at the theatre you are beside the same people the whole time apart from entering and leaving.
Something to think about if you have concerns about measures causing an increase in mental health issues (which they have no doubt). Pretty sure there would have been a different but still massive increase if we had let it rip. We have been pretty removed from large scale death by disease in the UK for a very very long time. Isolation was crap but the horrors of an unrestricted disease would have been worse.
And it's arrived in the Nevill house. 6 year old came home from school with a temp.... She's got it, wife and I have it, 4: year old has it. Only the 21 month old free so far.
Home schooling for 2 next week then, carp.
I was on a call with someone earlier in the week who is clinically vulnerable and she is on the priority list for the new anti-viral drugs the government have secured. She came down with symptoms so sent off the PCR test she had already been sent and quickly got the anti-viral drugs despatched. Within an hour of taking them she felt much better and is well on the way to full recovery. Good news for those of you either in this category or know people who are.
it can’t really be stopped, only mitigated to either a greater or lesser degree and the data from around the world is demonstrating this to be true – case loads spiked everywhere at some point and the only vector we had a choice over was ‘when’.
That’s not strictly true. We moved the morbidity and mortality about one log10 (90%} lower by vaccination and better treatments so that the number of people suffering serious disease and dying, for the same overall case burden, was vastly reduced by vaccination.
That’s what lockdown really bought you. In strict economic terms, it won’t have been worthwhile based on QUALYs, but that’s not how society works. I think we learned a lot, and that we are now better prepared.
But I have no issues with lockdowns to buy that time for development of vaccines. But also remember, it was not a given that we would be successful in developing such effective therapeutics. And we now see relatively short protection as the virus escapes neutralisation. That they are holding at all is a good result, because now antiviral treatments are improving as well.
[tl:dr] lockdowns bought time to develop vaccines. That saved a lot of deaths. Vaccines bought time for new antivirals. So next time we’ll be better prepared and won’t need lockdowns!
Words fail me, the children should be supervised and so should some adults
But I have no issues with lockdowns to buy that time for development of vaccines.
Yes I completely agree with this but the one variable that you didn't highlight was that no one knew how long the vaccine would take to develop. Your point is well made but requires the virtue of hindsight.
The challenge that people like Lord Sumption were positing at the time was done so when no one knew how long the vaccine would take to develop (or if it would even be possible) and what most people were worried about was an indefinite period of restricted life. There were also arguments being made that risk profile was very narrow and based almost entirely on age and co-morbidity factor and that indefinite lock down to protect a small group of the population was excessive.
Personally I think the balance was found in the subsequent lock downs we had, which allowed for more freedom of movement, especially the forming of support bubbles, which was a smart and very neccessary move.
I always wondered how many of the people who were so happy to themselves away were the ones with large houses and/or no children (I'm talking very annecdotally); the point being that lock down was a damn sight easier for some than others.
Your point is well made but requires the virtue of hindsight.
Not entirely. Other treatments were also coming including the one I worked on (sotrovimab) which would also have been used as a passive vaccine (see Evusheld).
Personally I think the balance was found in the subsequent lock downs we had, which allowed for more freedom of movement, especially the forming of support bubbles, which was a smart and very neccessary move.
Agreed. And you have Edmunds and LSHTM to thank for that. A lot of work was done looking at mixing patterns.
Lockdown1 two years ago was rabbit in the headlights panic. It was necessary, but it was panicked. Later ones were more measured. We won’t need another. Mass treatments may also cover future coronaviruses (the drugs are cross-reactive). If we don’t take our eye off future pandemic planning. I have a feeling we might not this time.
Mass treatments may also cover future coronaviruses (the drugs are cross-reactive).
I do a little cheer out loud whenever you mention this! Always good to look for silver linings.
Oh, the additional silver lining is that most people (including those of us with families and tiny homes) look back at the first lock downs as what they were… a difficult but essential measure when only hard choices were available to us… we’re not still bleeting on about having to do our little bit. Britain in the main has been shown to be community minded, and open to science, not a nation of self absorbed moaners… although of course there are a tiny number of vocal ones who seem to want to keep the moaning going as long as possible.
If anyone's intersted - my experience of Covid round 2....
Felt a bit grotty Tuesday, presumed hangover, went to the gym and was sweating far more than normal.
Wednesday, both the wife and I felt like we had really bad colds coming on, but quite woozy headed with it and persistant headaches, so we both tested and both positive with strong lines on LFT's. Thursday felt the same - feelings of a temperature, but not registering high on digital thermometer. Friday, headache had gone (wife's continued), just felt like I was getting over a cold. Yesterday I had a barely visible line (twice) and today nothing. Wife has been feeling really rough up until today - trippy feeling, weakness, temperature, lost taste and smell, but that seems to have come back. It's her first time contracting, despite having her own barbers shop.
I've been to the gym today and feel fine, she's starting to feel human again. She's double jabbed but not boosted - her friend (who she saw a week and a half ago), is double jabbed and boosted and is describing day on day identical symptoms to my wife. I've had no jabs, had covid Christmas 2020, which didn't make me ill - sense of smell still a bit skewed though.
Woke up with sinusitis, slightly sore throat, cough (which has never left) and of course anosmia (which never returned). No headache but silly tired. After a gentle walk have tested positive for the first time in the pandemic. Most likely a leaving event last week, before which I tested negative twice.
Made sure my lateral flow has been registered. Will be at home all week. Hopefully the three vaccinations and past infections will have some effect in m the chest pain. Sat watching F1 in isolation from Mrs TiRed.
I’m sure she appreciates that.
😉
PSA: You can now book online for 2nd Booster for over 75's and some other vulnerable groups. I've just booked for mum, takes a few seconds is all.👍
Huge relief here!
Great news - might be more volunteering shifts at the vaccination centres as well for those who want to do a little bit.
TiRed - get well soon.
Amazing that this thread has dropped off the first page, and that it has dropped off the national agenda.
COVID rates are soaring nationally at the moment, hospitals are full of people with COVID (not necessarily in ITU beds, just outbreaks). Wales is not going to relax mask wearing based on what is happening currently
I’ve got my first bought of COVID (triple jabbed), been positive 9 days now. Cold symptoms, but with searing horrible headaches, trembling, face feels like it’s got sunburn, upset stomach but never sick, insomnia (been awake since 4am) and brain fog (sometimes I can’t even remember simple words)
I started working from home on Monday but many colleagues have told me to stop based on what they are seeing coming through the doors in the hospital
Apparently this latest wave is especially effecting men and they can remain positive for many days ie 15+
A lot of those in hospital are there with covid but not because of it,hopefully this warm spell might help to slow the infection rate down
@FunkyDunc Take the advice and put the paperwork down. I had a milder hit than you and found it much easier to deal with when my work laptop stayed shut and off. Even then it was not fun with the headaches and fever.
Either way, get well soon. You too TiRed
A lot of those in hospital are there with covid but not because of it,hopefully this warm spell might help to slow the infection rate down
Half term is about to happen also. Positives are very high, admissions getting high again but ICU and deaths remain low is what I’m guessing driving the government silence.
Both me and Mrs K have a knockout malaise - very low energy, headache and dry mouth yet are testing negative. I’ve had this twice recently after which it seems to take me two weeks to recover, I’ve no idea what it is or whether the length of the recovery has been instigated by Covid. I’m at a point where I think I may as well give up bike racing this year - I don’t have the energy to train properly.
Get well soon all.