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They were the very best available at the time
Interesting comment on the original models TiRed. Lots have been critical of their use, accuracy and the government response, but I'm not sure we were in a position to do any better, and presumably any government would have followed the advice it was being given.
Easy for us all to be wiser now with hindsight.
That conjecture ignores that, where it could, the Scottish government acted before the UK government to stop the spread, as did NI.
Yep - that's why I wondered if the lower trend was something we might expect to see in the next few days from the UK figures.
You’d hope so. Our peak should be just behind, and that hopefully means soon. But the fear is that the delayed response allowed too wide a spread across England and Wales… so we’ll have more cases and a higher peak than we might have had. The big question is whether the peak proves to be too big for the (rapidly gearing up) health service to cope. Hopefully not.
None of this can be known, yet.
What would determine that, is it a genetic thing?
Most likely. But if you have LOW blood pressure naturally, dizzy if you stand up fast, low (I do) then this seems a possible predictor. ACE2 lowers blood pressure by converting angiotensin (angio=blood vessel, tensin = tension or constriction). It’s expressed in many tissues including the lung. So the virus can get in. More ACE2, lower natural BP.
ACE inhibitors might just restore activity for people with high BP to levels the same as those with low. So they may not be at risk on treatment.
Lots of “mays” because we don’t really know. Except we know what ACE inhibitors do.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2
How does your model know how many are or have been infected?
Doesn’t need to. One predicts deaths today from past cases, the other assumes a form for death curve from biological principles. The case fatality rate is what we call a nuisance factor. We don’t know it, so you model what you do know. Hint it’s not a standard SEIR model.
His models are following the progression of the deaths, aren’t they?
I probably should have said the number of cases because the death rate would be #case/#deaths?
There are sampled positive cases (the published figures) but also (hypothetical) unsampled and unknown positive cases. Or are you just interested in critical cases which pass through ICU?
I take global data, then model deaths in each country from the numbers of cases in that country. The ratio is the country case fatality rate. Than number is a random effect with a global mean and some county to country variability. It is a stats model of what we can describe. Not an epidemiological model of what we THINK is going on.
It predicted the rise today. BTW
Most likely. But if you have LOW blood pressure naturally, dizzy if you stand up fast, low (I do) then this seems a possible predictor. ACE2 lowers blood pressure by converting angiotensin (angio=blood vessel, tensin = tension or constriction). It’s expressed in many tissues including the lung. So the virus can get in. More ACE2, lower natural BP.
Yes, I get that, the dizziness on sudden standing, though my measured blood pressure is actually towards the upper end of normal, or at least it was last time it was measured.
Thanks again and best wishes for a speedy recovery.
Tired can i just say....
Amazing without doubt the most positive contribution to "this place" barr none.
Aye, from one GSKer* to another, bravo sir.
*merely a lowly mechanical engineer 😂
You're very unlikely to see lower trends in the UK over the next few days/weeks. Maybe in Scotland/Wales/Ireland, but not in England. The population density is soo high in England, we never really had a chance unless we started contact tracing and isolating the sick VERY early on.
^^^^^^Agreed^^^^^^ STW never ceases to amaze.
TIRed - Do you take into account population density and clustering into account in your modelling?
First time UK deaths superior to France?
Lots of French medical staff complaining about lack of ppe etc...
The UK government is unable to tell the truth it seems,
Decathlon have stopped selling their diving mask to the public as they can be converted for hospital use. 30 000 easy breathe masks and 30 000 swimming goggles according to le Parisien. The masks can be converted with a 3D printed kit.
I know these decisions are not alien to any doctor in critical care medicine, the decision where to give care and where to withhold. I guess eg: on arriving at a RTC a decision could have to be made immediately that while A and B could be saved A has a better chance and B has a poor chance so A gets treatment and B takes their chances.
But if it hits the scale threatened this is a different matter entirely.
TJ brought this up a few weeks ago (I think it was TJ) but is this time for that conversation. If someone is beyond help, or deprioritised to the point where they won't get the help they need, does a civilised society leave them waiting or help them away?
If someone is beyond help, or deprioritised to the point where they won’t get the help they need, does a civilised society leave them waiting or help them away?
Large dose of morphine, and take away the oxygen.
My sis is senior ITU nurse, that's what they've been told. Wife used to work in the local hospice, happened there too, it's not anything new.
The UK government is unable to tell the truth it seems,
How surprising, they've always been such a reliable source of excellent well-balanced information in the past....
[img] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUJNXKfWsAEa8rY?format=jpg&name=large [/img]
Do you take into account population density and clustering into account in your modelling?
No. I model all countries together, with a very nice Statistical model that describes global relationship and individual country behaviour. I have yet to publish it. I might, but at the moment, I just want it used.
the 20th March date ties in with when they requested the machines from our work
why the government left it that late I have no idea
https://www.buzzfeed.com/richholmes/uk-thousands-extra-coronavirus-tests
Large dose of morphine, and take away the oxygen.
My sis is senior ITU nurse, that’s what they’ve been told. Wife used to work in the local hospice, happened there too, it’s not anything new.
It’s quite as simple as that there needs to be care plan and resuscitation order set up too.
Indeed, thanks for your posts TiRed, very interesting. (I'm also an ex GSKer, from the days when Patrick was the boss. Also a modeller, but (neuro) PET imaging data.)
Get well soon all of you who have / might have it!
I could see the daily press conferences being axed at this rate
https://twitter.com/A50Challenge/status/1245462667915071490
So, I've been following this medcram channel on YT. Today he was talking about the use of hydrotherapy - hot and cold baths basically - during the 1919 Spanish Flu pandemic:
The theory is it won't cure you if you get flu, but it might stop you getting to that stage and ending up needing a ventilator.
What do we think?
So this preprint is if I understand right basically the advice the govt was getting before the lockdown. Not pretty - lockdown only way to reduce spread, and their lockdown scenario includes most of the summer and then ongoing sporadic lockdown through 2021.
What they don't model here (apparently they have another paper coming which does) is the impact of test-and-trace during lockdowns or of massively increased (ie orders of magnitude) ICU capacity. In absence of a vaccine or therapy, a combination of those two things would seem to be the only way we can get out of a very long lockdown. Which makes the current testing farce very worrying.
Something that struck me earlier reading this and the ‘have you had coronavirus’ thread.
By all reports you don’t get a test unless your are considered highly likely to have it and even then maybe not.
~150,000 have had tests in the UK
~120,000 have tested negative.
So what have they got?
Toll-like receptors rather that the adaptive immune system doing the business. And if it doesn't you are going to get a more severe infection. That is the hypothesis. This is the oldest side of the immune system, evolutionarily, predating T and B cell activation. It's not bad science, actually. For reference, I had no obvious interferon response (no temperature, for example) in the week prior to yesterday's event. Then I had an impressive response yesterday (probably TNF release).
Basically is there a reverse correlation between fever and outcome? I could believe that. If you have a fever, yes you have an infection, and it is possible eventual outcome may be better. Or we could just take interferon. Anyone dosed with this knows about "flu-like symptoms".
Caveat emptor - all of the studies are "Experimental Medicine" sized (order 10 subjects), they can't say anything with any confidence. So nor will I 😉
Just seen an interesting post on Facebook (that bastion of rational thinking). Complaining about people wearing gloves when shopping and pointing out that by wearing gloves you are spreading and infection, so instead we should all not wear gloves and wash our hands after coming out of each shop.
so I agree with the point about reducing spread however since people bought all the hand sanitiser, and I rarely see a proper lab level sink set up for leaving shops I am really baffled exactly how they think gloves are worse than unwashed hands.
at least you can take the ****ing gloves off before you get in the car and contaminate all the surfaces in there.
@TiRed get some sleep, your contributions on here are great, but seriously rest and get better
I'm guessing it makes some sense as folk are more likely to wash their hands (even with alcohol gel) than they are to wash gloves. If I go to 6 shops and wash my hands between each, that's better than going into them all wearing the same (unwashed) gloves.
+1
Preserve your energy for fighting this bastard off.
the 20th March date
Anyone wishing we didn’t have an election before Xmas? Not because of the result, but because in the aftermath it was if we were without a government at such a critical time. January and February were wasted on exotic holidays and civil service bashing, when we should have been preparing. I actually miss May, Hunt & Hammond.
January and February were wasted, when we should have been preparing.
Nonsense. Ministers were taking care of important matters of state.
@scotroutes
Yes agreed, but that is assuming access to any sanitiser etc.
I have to be honest I'm wearing gloves but then I will wear them for one occasion and bin (have only been in 3 shops since this all started) ultimately the best protection is to isolate all individuals from the virus but I'm afraid i don't see many people considering infection routes while they are out.
sure washing hands when they get home but that makes a mockery of the point made in the post I saw
Well this is worrying, either the deputy chief medical officer is blatantly lying or he doesnt understand how the antibody test works?!!?
(ignore the nutter digging at peston)
https://twitter.com/addicted2newz/status/1245476876879003648
the reason its a dual test is because
IgM goes up rapidly & shows if you presently have the virus
IgG goes up later & shows if you have immunity
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comment-on-different-types-of-testing-for-covid-19/
https://www.oxfordbiosystems.com/COVID-19-Rapid-test
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00010-2
kimbers - the torygraph front page you posted is quite something; is not covered in bbc papers review but the mail is - and is also critical (and self praising) but not as forcefully.
Good time for johnson to be absent from proceedings - from his perspective.
Who will the tories roll out next to front their daily pressers?
Sunak looks confident; gove is a liar; raab is cold; sharma is incompetent.
Cleverly (most unsuitable surname), patel, rees-mogg, shapps - all absent; zahawi has done some media stints but is a vacuous windbag.
My local mp, caroline johnson, was on 5live earlier and she was embarrassing; predictably, direct questions were not answered - responds to questions which weren't asked; claims that banks are responding well, claiming that she is not aware of any problems.
Sarah Fortune on R4 Today was quite good. (About 8:42 on sounds for anyone who missed it.)
For those (like me) who aren't keen on that format she explained pretty much the same stuff here:
Won't be news to most of us, but it will certainly help some!
TiRed - any tips for the Lottery this weekend? (e-mail in profile)
As much as I normally find the Daily Mail amusing to read, their sensationalist coverage of coronavirus has been most unedifying. They were posting pictures of empty supermarket shelves from day one almost like they were trying to get everyone to panic buy.
TiRed – any tips for the Lottery this weekend? (e-mail in profile)
Buy the random draw - IF you should win, you are less likely to share the prize.
If you like maths... https://alum.mit.edu/slice/calculated-approach-winning-lottery
"The group eventually determined that if they purchased at least $600,000 worth of tickets during a "roll down," they could garner an average profit of more than 15 percent. According to the report, the group earned an estimated $3.5 million over seven years."
They were posting pictures of empty supermarket shelves from day one almost like they were trying to get everyone to panic buy.
Actually it's not to get everyone to panic buy, it's to drive clicks to their website as the article gets shared, which earns them ad revenues.
They've as much interest in genuine "news" as Trump does in humility
As much as I normally find the Daily Mail amusing to read, their sensationalist coverage of coronavirus has been most unedifying. They were posting pictures of empty supermarket shelves from day one almost like they were trying to get everyone to panic buy.
Eh? That's what they do isn't it?
Obviously the Daily Mail is a national embarrassment, but I think early coverage of this story was poor across the board - particularly re. public behaviour.
As a long-serving hack myself, I don't recall ever feeling so let down by my colleagues as they willingly sensationalized toilet roll panic buying and people going for a walk.
topic change...any other examples of national systems of measurements being used to define a safe social distance?
Elsewhere, someone's calculated that the area taken up by an exclusion zone of 2m radius is about 12.5m^2, but if folks have trouble imaging what that looks like they've converted it in the more recognisable 6.5*10^{-10} of the area of Wales.
However as a social distancing zone is massless, we don't know how many blue whales it is.
ultimately the best protection is to isolate all individuals from the virus but I’m afraid i don’t see many people considering infection routes while they are out.
Isn't that partly because there is no coherent and easy to understand public information messaging getting out. Essentially it's 'Stay At Home', but not much more. I get that putting across more nuanced messages isn't easy, but realistically, if people mostly take on board the staying at home thing, shops are the one place where you're mostly like to find viral transmission and the hardest to avoid.
They can manage stuff to help kids cross the road, how difficult can it be to create a shopping code?
Technically it's one standard spitting distance.
I just learned on twitter that any IgM IgG Antibody test that gets developed is likely to be reliable only around 28 days after the patient has had the virus [1][2].
So the AntiGen test works for about 2 days before and 3 days after the first symptoms (according to the link around p161 of this thread) & the AntiBody test works 28 days after!
I had a false and optimistic idea of how effective both these tests were. 🙁
[2] I knew it wasn't instant but I was thinking a day or two, not a month!
If you like maths…
Thanks for that TiRed! I just read the official report linked in your news story - really entertaining and doesn't read like officialdom!
I used to work for lottery companies designing software as well as working for the worlds largest betting syndicates, I even got interviewed by the FBI in relation to the single largest betting scandal in US history (I think it still is)... but thats a whole other story.
My advice is don't bet the lottery. There's many better value forms of gambling you can waste your money on.
My advice is don’t bet the lottery. There’s many better value forms of gambling you can waste your money on.
I would recommend matched betting, but as there is barely any sport on...
MrsMC, a child protection social worker, is on standby to help a colleague move a teenager from the Midlands to the nearest secure unit placement they can find, which is in Edinburgh.
Three of them, one a feral teenager, in a car for six hours, drop the kid off, then six hours back again as presumably no hotels operating to stay over.
Very rare she wants a judge to adjourn a case 🤞
I even got interviewed by the FBI in relation to the single largest betting scandal in US history (I think it still is)… but thats a whole other story.
You carry on, most of us have the time to hear it right now.....
My advice is don’t bet the lottery. There’s many better value forms of gambling you can waste your money on.
When it launched a maths Prof basically said the same, but then caveated it with the advice that for a £1 a week compared to the reward for the person that does win it.......you'd be a fool not to.
My advice is don’t bet the lottery. There’s many better value forms of gambling you can waste your money on.
But at least some lottery money goes to good causes rather than lining William Hill's pockets. This is why I play it but I don't gamble otherwise.
If you like maths… https://alum.mit.edu/slice/calculated-approach-winning-lottery
/blockquote>MIT undergrads make me feel inadequate 🙁
I'm not sure that's right, in everyone's glee to jump up & down on Peston, as I said before
The companies selling this test claim it does detect those with virus
And fluorescent antibody assays (like the Abbot one trump was showing off upside down use that method)
Have been shown to detect an early IgM rise
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
Happy to be corrected (paging Tired!) but deputy CMO looks wrong here
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
Regarding the tabloids and their websites, they are now complaining that companies are blocking adverts on pages that mention the naughty’C’ word and so will loose out big time on revenue, so the clickbait mentioned above may reduce?
Quite amusingly the Fail is suggesting that this isn’t on as newspapers, by which I assume they mean themselves, are ‘ a reliable source of news’
@molgrips in a nutshell...
This is the scandal - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Breeders%27_Cup_betting_scandal
On the day it happened only 2 people afaik logged access to the computer room where the tickets were modified, myself and Chris Harn. On the day it all kicked off we talked about it and he even explained to me how you'd do it but it never clicked at the time. That evening I flew back home (I'd been in the US to support the software we'd developed over the weekend of the big race). When the FBI called the next day to find out where I was you can imagine their surprise when I told them I left the country...
As a long-serving hack myself, I don’t recall ever feeling so let down by my colleagues as they willingly sensationalized toilet roll panic buying and people going for a walk.
Isn't it just symptomatic of the them and us attitudes running through the media of the last few years. Which in turn probably reflect as a society we only seem to be happy with adversarial binary.
Personally I'm not overly keen on the war narrative being pumped out at the moment.
Digging deep into my past, I seem to recall that igG subclasses have a half life in the body of about 28 days, so it could be that the current test needs a decent concentration for a decent result. If that is the case, I'd be actually quite surprised. I developed a test for igG subclasses back in '95 that didn't need much and was about 90% accurate. Only took 2.5 hours to run as well.
I’m not sure that’s right, in everyone’s glee to jump up & down on Peston, as I said before
The companies selling this test claim it does detect those with virus
And fluorescent antibody assays (like the Abbot one trump was showing off upside down use that method)
Have been shown to detect an early IgM rise
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
Happy to be corrected (paging Tired!) but deputy CMO looks wrong here
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
/blockquote>Digging deep into my past, I seem to recall that igG subclasses have a half life in the body of about 28 days, so it could be that the current test needs a decent concentration for a decent result. If that is the case, I’d be actually quite surprised. I developed a test for igG subclasses back in ’95 that didn’t need much and was about 90% accurate. Only took 2.5 hours to run as well.
Thanks both, that's very encouraging. If true, 3.5 million cheap and fast tests are on the way. (If they work as promised.)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/covid-19-coronavirus-home-test-kit-antigen-antibody/
Not sure what the deputy CMO has said, but the Australian group did follow a traveller when she arrived from China. Their case report (BEWARE: the plural of case report is NOT study) showed that immunoglobulins rose after virus is cleared (from the upper respiratory tract anyway). I'd read it before. IgM is the big globby antibody that is first line defence on mucosal surfaces https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunoglobulin_M . You want that one.
An antibody test MUST be specific to detect the binding region of any antibody of intrerest. These are big molecules 150,000 - 1,000,000 MWT (water is H20 = 18 remember), and covered in sugars. So you have to pick the correct site for your probe to lock onto and show that the correct antibody is there. It also only says you have seen it in the past. We can measure AMOUNT serial dilutions) to suggest if you have enough to provide some protection.
[TL:DR] Test are specific: Suppose you have a multitool. Anyone can test the handle to see that it is the tool! But is the tool bit being used a No6 Torx or a No8 hex? Antibodies are the tool. The binding parts are tool bits that are specific for the target. The test probe would be an 8mm hex bolt. That test had better hit COVID-19 spike antigen or it won't pass!
Quite a jump in the Scots number of deaths in the last 24 hours, up from 76 to 126... includes 40 which were held back for family liaison issues, as people die alone and in hospitals, I'm sure there's a bit of a delay for genuine reasons...
Just saw the BBC news weather forecast. Sunny and 20 degrees on Sunday. The cops are going to be busy I think.
That puts the Scottish figures a bit more in line with the UK ones. Also in line with the CMOs warning to expect higher figures over the next week/fortnight.
Beats me. Maybe the CMO meant the finger prick test wouldn't work for 28 days, not that it's impossible to detect antibodies anywhere in the body at an earlier point.
I guess we'll sort this out when the finger prick test is tested.
Sunny and 20 degrees on Sunday.
I was going for a solo ride in <undisclosed place> on Sunday. As its a large forest I should be fine but it looks as though I should avoid places where I know people congregate to walk etc even more than I expected.
Just seen an interesting post on Facebook (that bastion of rational thinking). Complaining about people wearing gloves when shopping and pointing out that by wearing gloves you are spreading and infection, so instead we should all not wear gloves and wash our hands after coming out of each shop.
Only if you're stupid enough not to sanitize your gloves regularly and before you take them off for disposal. Then again, despite the British public harking on about common sense, they lack it.
Still, the social witch hunts and curtain peeping is starting to annoy me now.
And how would you have funded it all in this mythical past ? Budget from schools/education ? Poice forces ? Ambulances ? Roads ? Armed forces ? or…. well….. errrrm, you tell me.
Why did none of the other countries prepare for this pandemic for the whole of their society ? How would you have persuaded our government to do so ?
They did. The Aussies have been stockpiling for a pandemic for decades, as have others.
The money could have come out of the armed forces budget seeing as this has always been a greater threat to society and the economy than an actual war, a PPE stockpile wouldn't have even been that great of an expense. It's certainly going to be more expensive for us, getting up to speed now.
Face it, your beloved Tories are incompetent.
Bloody hell, I heard about the French seizing the surgical masks but hadn’t followed the details.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/coronavirus-european-solidarity-sidelined-as-french-interests-take-priority-1.4216184
Jesus. That is going to cause a huge fallout within the EU.
The money could have come out of the armed forces budget seeing as this has always been a greater threat to society and the economy than an actual war
Absolutely, old mate of mine who's did his time in the army, but continues as a territorial was just on a 3 month tour of Zambia. What the hell is the point of that, other than a jolly?.
http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200402-china-coronavirus-face-mask-france-stolen-us
Coronavirus masks that France ordered from China were bought at the last minute by the United States as they waited to be loaded onto cargo planes, French officials have said.
"I want to say a special word about testing, because it is so important, and as I have said for weeks and weeks, this is the way through," he said.
Boris develops ret-con abilities.
Coronavirus masks that France ordered from China were bought at the last minute by the United States as they waited to be loaded onto cargo planes, French officials have said.
Live by the sword, die by the sword, eh?
Prisoners dilemma at a global level isn’t it!?
Just wait till it happens with food.
The money could have come out of the armed forces budget seeing as this has always been a greater threat to society and the economy than an actual war
I don't really know what the point of nukes and supersonic jets are in 2020, but keeping an established force of government employees based around the world with access to cargo planes, ships and trucks seems like a fairly useful thing for a government to have in a time of crisis.
Deaths at 2,921 today, similar sort of rise as yesterday, but we're starting to accelerate faster than italy 🙁
hopefully effect of lockdown will be felt in a week or so