Obviously according to the government he’s out of isolation on day 10 even if he is still positive, but that doesn’t seem to be based on much science.
I believe that it is in fact based on a lot of science. IIRC after 10 days of isolation you have a 5 percent chance of still being infectious, whether or not you are still LFT positive.
After 7 days of isolation there is a 16 percent chance that you are still infectious. However, if you test LFT negative on days 6 and 7 that reduces your chances of being still infectious to 5 percent, the same as 10 days of isolation, which is why they allow you to come of isolation after 7 days.
Thanks Ernie that's helpful. I guess i was lose with my words there when i said not based on a lot of science - I meant that it's not like there is 0 chance of you being infectious, it's just they've chosen some arbitrary cut off percentage (5%).
Day 6 for my daughter, and she's tested negative. 'Because she was bored' she also did one yesterday, D5, also negative. Her symptoms have been very mild so hopefully tomorrow sees her released.
My daughter is on day 8 and tested negative for the first time today, we are hoping she has a negative test tomorrow morning so she can go to school.
Not so lucky for me. I tested negative on day nine yesterday but a very feint positive on day 10 today so am staying in isolation until tomorrow morning. As I'm isolating in my sons room and he has to have Monday as home learning we'd hope I could come out today so we could air the room, clean down and change the sheets.
Certainly seems like the Gov are putting out feelers about how the public would feel about the cancellation of mass testing/isolation and just learning to live with the Virus™️
Agreed, it certainly looks like that's where they want to take us.
It was always the end game, see TiReds comments in the early days of the thread. It's just a question of when is the right time to accept it and move on.
Oh absolutely, we all know it, just an observation that it's coming a little sooner than we expected.
This is interesting, employers starting to cut sick pay for unvaccinated employees if they have to self isolate due to a close contact. Doesn't apply to exempt staff.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/09/ikea-cuts-sick-pay-for-unvaccinated-uk-staff-isolating-due-to-close-covid-contac t">Manchester Guardian
Can I ask: why is the rise in serious cases (see hospitalisation rates) continuing while infection rates and deaths is now going down? Is this a delay thing, where it takes a week or two for people to end up in hospital after initial illness.
A two-week delay seems to have been baked in from day 1.
I guess that death rates might rise too after two more weeks.
Is this a delay thing, where it takes a week or two for people to end up in hospital after initial illness.
Yes.
In addition, early in the wave the infections are weighted towards younger less at risk parts of the population, so there can be another delay… as the numbers of older and at risk people infected rise fast, even as the total number of new people infected plateaus.
Can anyone explain to me why it is sensible to not allow 12-16 yr olds to get a second jab (thus completing the actual initial course and presumably providing a big uptick in antibodies) at 8-12 weeks from first jab, when this was the manufacturers initial recommendation I think.
It would surely cut down transmission around schools and therefore protect potentially more vulnerable, older people, and yet there's a huge push to get healthy 18-25 year olds to have a booster who should already be quite well protected? Doesn't make sense to me.
where are 12-16 year olds not being allowed a second jab? My son's school are doing them next week (my son would be getting his, if he didn't have the 'rona right now and therefore have to wait now for the jab) and the local vaccination hub is linked to here https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/find-a-walk-in-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-site/ which says
You can get these at walk-in sites
- 1st and 2nd doses for people aged 12 years old and over
- 3rd doses for people with a weakened immune system aged 12 years old and over
- boosters for people aged 18 years old and over
- boosters for people aged 16 and 17 years old who are at high risk from COVID-19 or frontline health and social care workers
- boosters for people who have had the 3rd dose for people with a weakened immune system with a letter from their GP or hospital specialist
Yes they can get a second dose but there’s a hard insistence of 12 wk gap from first.
Only kids that can have it at 8 weeks are immuno suppressed or learning difficulties.
I’m proposing all 12-15 yr olds should have that 8-12 week option.
Oh, and while numbers are so high, daily data is more prone to reporting delays…
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1480588599280250882?s=21
ah, understand now
Rates will be coming down hugely soon.👍
Not testing for it is a cheap way of bringing rates down though. Don't know why they didn't think of it sooner...
I know we are soon at the point of "living with Covid" but it still feels a little half arsed as always.
Mostly though, the thing that worries me the most about current pandemic policy is that its obvious Boris is making pandemic decisions based almost entirely on pleasing his morally bankrupt back benchers.
why is the rise in serious cases (see hospitalisation rates) continuing while infection rates and deaths is now going down?
Hospitalisation lags positive tests (5 days?), and deaths lag hospitalisation (another 5 days?). I think those are the rough delays for Delta, happy to be corrected, Omicron may be different.
The trend on deaths is still rising, if you smooth out the bumps, and may rise more steeply as I don't think we're 10 days past the peak of positive tests,
Positive tests are not necessarily the same as infections; the more you test, the more you'll pick up. There will have been a rise in LFD testing when people were going out at Christmas/New Year, and then a shortage of test kits may have reduced the numbers further.
Yes they can get a second dose but there’s a hard insistence of 12 wk gap from first.
I believe that it's because the second dose isn't as effective if you give it too early.
The manufacturer's changed their stance regarding second doses as the original rollout produced data over a wide population.
Here’s a WWSTD?!!
Had two Faintly positive LFT test on Sunday evening. No symptoms just doing routine weekly tests for work.
Took a PCR yesterday which just came back negative but another LFT just now was faintly positive again. Still no symptoms. No positive contacts either.
So which do I believe? I guess isolate? Which is gonna be crap for the 100 plus patients who get moved on by a few weeks?
Very weird and confusing. Tempting to get another pcr
Thanks @jam-bo ... another bit of evidence that 'man-flu' may in fact be flu ;-). I think this is interesting as it means our current approach to managing flu is a more relevant example of how covid will hopefully be managed in the future.
@ceepers my understanding is that false positive rate for LFTs is very very low..
Tough one....my understanding
PCR trumps LFT
But....as from today, a positive LFT / no symptoms now now longer needs a PCR confirmatory test; BBC is reporting <3 false positives per 10,000 tests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59944057
So by the rules - today's positive LFT, no symptoms means you take that as the result and off to isolation you go.
[edit - as from today in England, was already the case in W/NI/Sc]
Ceepers, false positive LFTs after infection are not uncommon. It’s likely that you were infected earlier but missed it. But as you don’t know when you were infected, acting as if Sunday is day one is all you can do. Annoying for your patients, as you might be no longer infectious, but passing it on to them if you are would also be annoying.
our current approach to managing flu is a more relevant example of how covid will hopefully be managed in the future
We might be getting get flu wrong as well. Other countries vaccinate far more widely than we do. And run with greater bed capacity in case of a bad flu year. COVID-19 might inform improvements to our flu approach as much as the other way around.
Ceepers, false positive LFTs after infection are not uncommon. It’s likely that you were infected earlier but missed it
A good point. Not a true "false positive" (the LFT is correctly picking up some remnant of the virus), but in real terms not a meaningful result in this scenario.
This will become more of an issue going forward with so many people recently being infected.
Yeah I had thought that - although not had any symptoms at any time and been doing lft’s regularly.
Would That explain the negative pcr?
Still safer to isolate but annoying given I feel normal ( although I’d rather that than be ill!)
We might be getting get flu wrong as well. Other countries vaccinate far more widely than we do. And run with greater bed capacity in case of a bad flu year. COVID-19 might inform improvements to our flu approach as much as the other way around.
Would agree with this. The last two years has seen us push much more then previously to get everyone flu vacs
Got the snooker on on my second screen (yes, I must be very bored this afternoon). 30% of the audience must be unmasked. That's either an awful of lot of wheezy mask exempts or a hell of a lot of very long coffees being drunk.
Given it's a legal requirement I'm quite surprised the venue are happy with their lack of effort to get their audience to do the right thing being broadcast live.
I wonder if the Brexit/mask objector/snooker fan Venn diagram overlap is strong.
Looks like the case numbers are really starting to fall now, unfortunately with the transition into LFT’s only it’s going to be harder to spot whether it’s really falling case numbers and not just non-reported tests. I’d imagine there’ll be a lot of people saying they’ve got symptoms after a positive LFT to get a confirmatory PCR though. I’ve already heard people saying their work won’t accept an LFT result on its own…
348 000 positve testws in France today, add to that 10-40% of false negatives and the people who can't be arsed to get tested/don't report and you arrive at an impressive number of contaminations in a society where masks and social distancing are still respected by the vast majority. Thankfully the vaccine came before the Omicron.
We might be getting get flu wrong as well. Other countries vaccinate far more widely than we do. And run with greater bed capacity in case of a bad flu year. COVID-19 might inform improvements to our flu approach as much as the other way around.
Hopefully the investment to beef up the NHS after all this will take this sort of thing into account. And hell may freeze over
Covid may not be as airborne transmisson resistant as thought - study indicates that close range / sub 5 minute is the critical time, beyond that the virulence drops quickly. It doesn't seem to float about on the breeze indefinitely (although if in contact with an infected person, ie in the same space for a longer period even if it is dropping off fast, 'fresh' virus is also being replensihed continuously
In turn indicates that social distancing and also mask wearing (possibly to shorten the range over which virus particles spread?) is still a significant weapon against transmission.
In turn indicates that social distancing and also mask wearing (possibly to shorten the range over which virus particles spread?) is still a significant weapon against transmission.
doesn't look that way to me going of whats mentioned above from france.
doesn’t look that way to me going of whats mentioned above from france
But masks are only worn at certain times. Most infections will come from hanging out with family, friends, in work or drinking in bars. The French live for a long lunch out.
exactly, that's where mask wearing fail's, wear one apart from when "most infections" will happen.
I'm not sure of your point? Because they aren't perfect we don't use them at all?
<p class="dcr-o5gy41">“It means that if I’m meeting friends for lunch in a pub today, the primary [risk] is likely to be me transmitting it to my friends, or my friends transmitting it to me, rather than it being transmitted from someone on the other side of the room,” said Reid. This highlights the importance of wearing a mask in situations where people cannot physically distance, he added.</p>
The findings support what epidemiologists have been observing on the ground, said Dr Julian Tang, a clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, adding that “masks are very effective … as well as social distancing. Improved ventilation will also help – particularly if this is close to the source.”
I believe mask wearing does have an impact on the spread of the virus. I work with 23 vet practice sites and the teams have been in masks ever since the start. Initially moved to car park consults etc but in this last Omicron phase the vast majority would be in consult rooms with clients for >5 mins and often close. Clients wearing masks too.
Although we lost team members self isolating to Covid over this period, almost every case I can recall either had a family member contact or had been out and about. Similarly although we had teams with multiple people affected we couldn’t see any clear indication of in practice transmission.
how much effect do they actually have now. this current one seems to spread so easily places with stricter mask rules haven't done any better than places with less strict rules.
hopefully not be long and mask wearing will be gone again
certain situations they have a place, like going into a hospital but just to go into shops for a few minutes it seems pointless to me( i usually do pull a buff over my face going into shops but do sometimes forget)
the above is a bit like the hospital situation, spending longer in close contact in a small space so i could see the point of masks there
Echoing bruk above, we've escalating cases in our healthcare workers in Qld, but apparently no cases that are linking staff to other staff or patients. Staff are catching it when they're in the community...
Can anyone help me with locating a link from earlier in the thread. I bookmarked it but then I've wiped it.
I'm pretty sure it was Tired originally - the link was to the antiviral trials with a possibility for sign up for anyone previously considered critically extremely vulnerable.
I'm struggling to find it, guess it was about the weeks back round Christmas ish, but having no luck with the search yet.
WA borders set to open up on Feb 5
Our union has said 80% of nurses do not want the border open and want to hold off another month. We've had 2 years to prepare. What's another 4 weeks going to do?
Still short staffed.
Still waiting for PPE
Omicron is smashing Eastern States, creeping into South Aus and Northern Territory and it's going to smash us here in WA.
Getting my booster this arvo. Fun times! Seems like we're doing the exact opposite of the UK where from my perspective it looks like you're naffing off RAT tests and being told you're just gonna have to live with it now? Is that the feeling there?
Oh. Also looks like people are panic buying, shelves are empty. Toilet roll restrictions. Supply chain is rooted. (Rooted: Aussie word for being fvcked)
@loum please don't take this as the definitive anger but this might help. TiRed pointed me this way in a post with a similar enquiry to yours.
https://www.panoramictrial.org/participant-information
Yeah, aphex, shops are getting empty here again too.
School term start has been delayed by two weeks in Qld, no change in NSW though afaik which is good as our terrors will be two weeks after their first dose that way and hopefully my outlaws will have gotten boosted too.
Seems like we’re doing the exact opposite of the UK where from my perspective it looks like you’re naffing off RAT tests and being told you’re just gonna have to live with it now? Is that the feeling there?
Can only comment on my own views and inherent biases from here in England.
Yes, England seems to be moving on. Rather, that's the subliminal message and phasing out free LF tests will enhance that message.
Less tests, less cases reported, "we are winning".
Also our government is in a state of very public turmoil, this really isn't helping. More decisions than ever seem to be made based on political expediency rather than pandemic reality. I am very wary of this government though, so my opinion might be clouded.
We do seem to be in a better position then I feared a short while ago as a nation, but that's of little comfort to me with a vulnerable 92 year old mum. Boosted or not.
On a personal level I remain highly cautious particularly now, as a good percentage of the country are patently not and Covid is just everywhere.
The editor of a right wing paper over here was on telly saying how Australia was completely mad trying to suppress Covid.
I disagree. You will have learnt valuable lessons looking at the experiences of other nations and bought valuable time.
It would be a brave statement to say that the UK is in a better position that Australia at the moment, things could quite easily overwhelm us if another variant of concern were to arise. We also have to cope with the ramifications of Brexit as the rest of the world rebounds from Covid. Empty shelves here are just as likely from that as from Covid in the year to come.
As for panic buying, yes, the UK has been through that phase for sure.
My advice? Don't go for bog roll. Go for fuel, flour and tinned items.
Good luck down there bud.