The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

No but it is instructive as to how difficult planning for everything is

Sure - which just shows how dumb it is to base your Covid strategy on testing before you've made sure that tests are available. It may fool the House of Commons on 13 December when you say:

I can assure this House that the UK has sufficient lateral flow tests to see us through the coming weeks. If anyone finds that they are unable to get a kit online, they should check the website the following day or they can pop down to their local pharmacy and pick up a kit.

but real life isn't toeing the party line

I’ve read on here that people aren’t scared, just cautious and conscientious. Seems like scared to me

Seems like selfish & arrogant to me

And it's OK Mark Drakeford & Welsh Labour are bailing England out 😜

I can assure this House that the UK has sufficient lateral flow tests to see us through the coming weeks. If anyone finds that they are unable to get a kit online, they should beg the Welsh for any spares they have

FIFY

We are just going to have to make do with capacity we have

Well, that’s self evident. And something the government should have built into their “planning”, isn’t it? Rather than introducing new policies that required us to have greater capacity than they knew we had. Joined up government. We need it. And a full time PM who is across this kind of basic detail.

living in fear of a flu virus

This is not the flu. If it were, we’d have been far more ready for it, and made far fewer mistakes in responding to it.

I’ve read on here that people aren’t scared, just cautious and conscientious. Seems like scared to me

It seems you need to look up exactly what the words scared, cautious and conscientious actually mean.

I'll give you a clue to get you started, all three words mean entirley different things.

Seems like selfish & arrogant to me

There’s a point worthy of debate in there somewhere though. At what point does the cumulative disruption of the restrictions and isolation requirements become worse than the impact of the virus itself? And on isolation I wonder how much difference it actually makes? Given the seemingly very high number of asymptomatic/undetected cases, plus the fact that those that do isolate will probably have been infectious for several days beforehand.

I’ll give you a clue to get you started, all three words mean entirley different things.

Wow, you don't say

Patronising and missing the point all at the same time....

There’s a point worthy of debate in there somewhere though. At what point does the cumulative disruption of the restrictions and isolation requirements become worse than the impact of the virus itself? And on isolation I wonder how much difference it actually makes? Given the seemingly very high number of asymptomatic/undetected cases, plus the fact that those that do isolate will probably have been infectious for several days beforehand.

Are you talking of where we are now with vaccines or when the only devices available where lockdowns, distancing etc etc.

It seems to me more than ever that society is paying a high price for individuals*, that though relatively low in number, are large enough to potentially put us in lock down after lockdown... whilst they bemoan such measures.

I and many others are losing patience with said people.

*A pandemic is a societal problem, being a maverick isn't a badge of honour during such times.

Rather than introducing new policies that required us to have greater capacity than they knew we had.

The new policies will still allow plenty of people to quarantine for less than 10 days, but maybe less than would be able to in a perfect world. Plenty of households will be sitting on unused tests, dare I say there might be a bit of panic ordering as well.

The risks all look perfectly manageable within the current constraints.

And the policy of relying on LFT before social mixing, rather than any controls on numbers at pay per entry gatherings etc?

The government have gone big on vaccinations and testing rather than introducing any other significant measures [ in England ], without putting the testing capacity in place to back up that policy.

Here we are again, with the PM ignoring advice, making policy up on the hoof, without any advanced planning or understanding of the implications of his decisions. He’s a great campaigner who simply can not govern.

I’ve read on here that people aren’t scared, just cautious and conscientious. Seems like scared to me

Oooooooooo…. Get Billy Big Bollocks, there?

Have you by any chance read quite a few Andy McNabb books? 😂

Has it crossed your mind that maybe we’re not scared for ourselves but for those far more vulnerable than ourselves?

Looking at UK cases versus numbers in hospital on a graph shown on TF1 news it seems the omicron wave is looking manageable. For the first time in two years the UK is being used as a positive model - The UK and Denmark are coping with the peak of the omicron wave so hopefully France can too (despite even more alarming case numbers).

Are you talking of where we are now with vaccines or when the only devices available where lockdowns, distancing etc etc.

The former. Lockdowns etc were obviously required at the start. I’m just not convinced we have the right balance now.

They wanted herd immunity at the start. Looks like that’s where we’re going to end up

Of course, herd immunity is what we need and is the desirable and even the only outcome. Strategies differ on how we get there.

@TheArtistFormerlyKnownAsSTR I'm not in the least bit scared of the virus. I've got an excellent immune system, I'm very strong and healthy and consequently I have a bit of an invincibility complex. I had a great lockdown, thoroughly enjoyed it.

I'm still double soon-to-be triple jabbed though, because as someone who knows what I'm talking about in certain areas I listen to those who know what they are talking about in others. Therefore, I now know that even if I don't get COVID symptoms I could still pass it on to others less fortunate than me unless I do my bit. Seems straightforward.

And the policy of relying on LFT before social mixing, rather than any controls on numbers at pay per entry gatherings etc?

The vast majority of people are vaccinated, some people may not be able to go out because they can't get a test, better than closing the whole country down on the off chance.

No one has suggested closing the whole country down, don’t be a drama queen.

The government have announced that testing is the way forward (on top of an accelerated booster programme). It’s up to them to back that testing strategy that they have gone for with actual testing testing capacity, otherwise they are failing on their own terms, aren’t they.

I’ve got an excellent immune system, I’m very strong and healthy and consequently I have a bit of an invincibility complex

There was a doc on TV here explaining that among their younger patients it seems to be something of a lottery. A tiny proportion of seemingly fit young people develop serious forms of Covid illness. They so far haven't worked out why.

The good news is that vaccination reduces the risk of serious illness even in that tiny proportion.

Of course, herd immunity is what we need and is the desirable and even then only outcome. Strategies differ on how we get there.

The hope must be that this wave is the final wave and this variant (omicron) the final variant of concern.

It seems hopeful that after omicron has swept through the nation the level of immunity will allow future infection rates to be manageable without the need for lockdowns, testing, etc.

Testing has been a major part of the strategy for yonks hence we have built considerable capacity at significant cost, it continues to be but no system is perfect in the context of a fast moving relatively benign wave. Some people won't be able to do what they want, that is far better than restricting everyone.

Some people won’t be able to do what they want, that is far better than restricting everyone.

Or rather, they will do what they want, just that they don't know if they are infected or not as they can't test.

And new policy and guidance put in place requires more testing capacity. This is very basic stuff Mefty… the government has made announcements about what we should all do without putting the provision in place. It’s an obvious failure. Of course, they don’t expect the testing to actually happen… they just wanted to find a middle ground between “do nothing more” and “restricting people’s Xmas and New Year”… they can be seen to announce things (test before you meet up, and get back to work or socialising sooner) without facilitating those things… but no one hangs a “grinch” or “party pooper” tag around the good time PM’s political neck.

It seems hopeful that after omicron has swept through the nation the level of immunity will allow future infection rates to be manageable without the need for lockdowns, testing, etc.

Amen to that.

I'm playing a delaying tactic with my old mum really in the hope that better anti viral drugs are readily available soon for the at risk. Boosted or not, the odds aren't in her favour of she catches Covid.

There are a lot of people in similar positions, or worse, they can't even have the vaccine because of health conditions.

It’s a obvious failure

Everything this government does is an obvious failure, spending lots on trace and trace was once an obvious failure, now it is not good enough Fortunately no one listens to you.

spending lots on trace and trace was once an obvious failure, now it is not good enough Fortunately no one listens to you

Er, I was calling for effective test/track/trace/isolate before any of the UK systems were put in place. We still don’t have an effective one. No matter how much money was thrown at the wrong people to not deliver us one.

If the government changes policy to require more testing, it needs to ensure that we have more testing capacity to support THEIR policy shifts. It’s pretty simple. Your sidesteps don’t change that.

A tiny proportion of seemingly fit young people develop serious forms of Covid illness. They so far haven’t worked out why.

I know, I didn't say I actually think I'm invincible, just that my subconscious brain does!

No matter how much money was thrown at the wrong people to not deliver us one.

The vast majority of the money was spent on testing, it is why we have such significant capacity.

But not the capacity to support the policies of the government. It’s simple, announce new policies and advice that depend on increased testing capacity, without increasing testing capacity, and you’ve failed on your own terms. Dance around it all you want.

But the alternative you favour is closing stuff unnecessarily - so thankfully they are in charge not you, whcih has been a constant for a long time because you were wrong on vaccinations, wrong on spending on track and trace, wrong on unlocking etc etc.

I’m sure I’ve been wrong about lots of things, but you’re being far too vague there for me to respond to you.

Anyway, you are sidestepping again. The government have fresh policies and advice (theirs, not mine) that can not be followed because they have not linked up policy with delivery. If you want increased testing to reduce isolation times (their idea, not mine) and to avoid restrictions in hospitality with increased testing (their idea, not mine), the first question that should be asked is… how do we enable this… before announcing that it is what everyone should be doing.

But the alternative you favour is closing stuff unnecessarily

I don’t think anyone has said that. If you want to base your policy on testing, I’m absolutely fine with that. Makes perfect sense to me

… with the obvious proviso that you have an effective functioning testing programme in place

They haven’t

So it renders the whole thing null and void.

And that’s before you get onto the obscene sums of taxpayers money that have been thrown at various parties closely connected to the Tory party who have so comprehensively failed to deliver this dysfunctional system

So it renders the whole thing null and void.

It doesn't actually. Even with failures it doesn't render the whole thing null and void.

In my case it worked fine - positive LFT at a NHS pop-up test centre - confirmed the next day by a PCR test at a drive in - in isolation (for something which for me no worse than mild hay fever and I certainly wouldn't have thought was covid) consequenctly it's reduced the possibility of me spreading it throughout the community.

And as typically a million and a half are being tested everyday I'm obviously not the only one.

positive LFT at a NHS pop-up test centre – confirmed the next day by a PCR test at a drive in

Was that before or after the new government policy and advice increased demand?

Oh… LFTs at pop up centres sounds a great idea to me, not got them here… was that something special for London when cases were rising there?

Both my brother and my brother in law have had positive lfts followed by negative PCRs, which seems weird
Knowing how unstable RNA is I wonder if the pcr centres being over capacity and already short staffed, is leading to problems with QC?

The hope must be that this wave is the final wave and this variant (omicron) the final variant of concern.

Not a chance. Sorry to rain on the parade. However on the upside, cross immunity will wear down the severity of SARS-CoV-2 so morbidity declines. To be replaced by influenza and RSV. And eventually other variants that evade still more of the immune system.

SAfrica appears to have peaked, Denmark has slowed and London may also have peaked. Other regions are behind with the North West second. You think this wave is manageable, but there is separation between England and other nations in the cases-hospitalisation chain. It’s too early for deaths.

In other news, the antibody I work on retains neutralising ability against omicron and is now being tested in RECOVERY trial. If admitted and at risk, there’s a decent chance of being treated with it.

And I won’t be going out for NYE. I used a lateral flow test to stand in the garden at the in-laws yesterday. Might spend the day looking at data instead.

Was that before or after the new government policy and advice increased demand?

After. I actually went to the pop-up test centre to ask for LFTs as the two chemists I had gone to had run out, they said they wouldn't have any until 3pm but they could do a LFT on me, I went for that.

15 minutes later I had a positive result texted to me. That was the 23rd. The next morning at 9am I had my PCR at the drive in. The following day, Christmas Day, I got the positive result.

The vast majority of people are vaccinated

Ten percent or about five million adults are not. Assuming about a 1% hospitalisation rate, that would be 50,000 admissions. Run that over three months and it’s 600 per day. For a three day stay (less serious disease) that’s 1800 beds filled. Of course it won’t infect everyone unvaccinated.

Then there will be the other 90% who may get infected (or reinfected) with lower rates, and length of stay will be different. It will amount to a significant pressure. I could see about double the unvaccinated figure as a cumulative total - 100k admissions over the winter. Hope I’m wrong.

Not a chance

Well that's a shame. Although if "morbidity declines" presumably they will be variants of a little bit less concern?

A pandemic is a societal problem, being a maverick isn’t a badge of honour during such times.

That's very well put.

As ever, TiRed sums it up. This isn't the last wave, though it will sadly boost the levels of immunity out there.

Seems to my inexpert view that other measures - though still short of another lockdown, which no one has argued for on here - beyond testing and vaccines were needed to slow the spread and flatten the curve to reduce the short term pressure on the NHS that TiRed has explained above.

Not doing so was a political choice. The government has to decide it's priority when assessing evidence from not just scientists, but economists and mental health experts as well. I get that. They just seem to have consistently made things worse by failures to act decisively and in time.

And I'm not dismissing the impact the last 18 months has had on many people. I'm living with those consequences, which is why yet again I'm on the forum in the middle of the ****ing night.

I’m glad you got your tests Ernie. But your anecdote does not change the fact that the UK government changed policy and guidance [ in England ] to lean heavily on testing to get through these few key weeks without ensuring everything was in place to give that the chance to work.

It comes as the government faces increasing pressure to give NHS staff priority access to lateral flow tests amid ongoing supply issues.

There has been a surge in demand for Covid-19 tests as people try to comply with advice to limit the spread of the Omicron variant by ensuring they do not have coronavirus before socialising.

Both the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) and the British Medical Association urged ministers to ensure key workers are first in line to access tests to help ease staffing issues.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-cases-record-rise-omicron-b1984642.html

Thanks again TiRed.

In a related note, Mrs_oab's fresh stocks of antibodies from the hospital  last week came with a note to say there are Cv19 antibodies in at last.

Although last night was the first time in a while she had a (mild) reaction to her infusion in a while. 🤔

While it doesn't feel it to a worried mrs_oab, this *is* a big step forward for her.

@matt_outandabout Can you check which antibody one and report the reaction using yellow card please? Hypersensitivity and infusion reactions are always something of interest and their rate is about 1/100 to 1/1000 (which is uncommon).

fresh stocks of antibodies from the hospital last week came with a note to say there are Cv19 antibodies in at last

That is good news Matt.

Head of Perkin Elmer - company that makes the qPCR machines and runs testing labs. Saying on bbc that it's staff shortages that are limiting the test numbers.

Here's the job they need: £24k a year (but only short term contracts)
You have to do both Day & Night shifts (don't get extra for nights) have to be a life science graduate with PCR experience

Pay Rate: £12.86 per hour

7. Any other reasonable task.

I take an immunosuppressant, and got my 4th vaccination on 28 Dec. I also participate in the ONS IQVIA Covid Survey. I was sampled for PCR and blood for antibodies on 18 Dec, just shy of 12 weeks from my 3rd vaccination.

Negative for Covid, but also negative for antibodies, which is a tad concerning.

I have previously tested positive for antibodies, after AZ vaccines, but 3 and 4 were Pfizer.